A nuclear bomb in europe ? What !?

[Eeshaan]

‘Nuclear hellstorm’ if bin Laden caught: 9/11 mastermind | Nuclear Weapons News at DefenseTalk

What on earth is this ? Does Al Quaeda actually posess a nuclear weapon capable of unleashing god knows how much damage to Europe ?

Or is this just a means of getting the authorities off Bin Laden's back ? i.e. false information.

If it actually exists, then how did Bin Laden get his hands on it ? Via Pakistan's nuclear arsenal ? Or help from other foreign powers ? How ?

And what can be done to avert this threat ? We cannot, and should never stop seaching for that scumbag. He deserves what's coming to him now more than ever. Sorry to get my emotions into this thread, but no mercy should be shown to such an individual.

 

[NICO]

I don't buy it. If they had a nuke, they would use right away. It would be too dangerous and too difficult for ALQ to smuggle it and keep it hidden all this time just for that.

Sounds too much like a Bond movie scenario.

 

[Eeshaan]

So do you think it's just misinformation by Al Quaeda to get the heat off Bin Laden then ?

Because if it's not, then this really is a worse case scenario. The worst fears of the free world actually have come true if Al Qaeda has a nuke hidden away in a high-population urban area somewhere in Europe.

And it could be anywhere...

 

[NICO]

Well, let's face it, ALQ hasn't done anything close to 9/11 (thank God!) in terms of damage or complexity. Organizing and flying multiple airplanes is complex, takes time and money, planning,etc...since then we have seen some rather poor planning and especially execution in attempts so this would lead one to believe that ALQ has been hurt since 9-11 and "grabbing" a nuke, smuggling it and keeping it hidden for years in Europe is beyond current ALQ capabilities IMHO.

First, the guy was being tortured so he was going to say anything to begin with. Second, it actually is good from ALQ point of view to say "we have a nuke' because then CIA/DOD and everybody else is going to find out if it is true and where the hell is it? A nuke in ALQ hands is the worst case scenario that REALLY would concentrate the minds of US/Western intel agencies. They would drop everything in a heart beat if they get serious intel that this is true....so this would reduce pressure on other ALQ operations and waste of time and money if it isn't for CIA,etc...

I remember reading somewhere that ALQ had close to 100 operations before 9-11, not necessarily planned, money spent, operatives ready to go and what not, just different terrorist scenarios to execute, WTC was in the top 10, wasn't Number 1 but that is the one they executed.....ALQ has their own rational and mindset but I don't think they would acquire a nuke and then not use it?

Finally the only way I could see them getting a nuke is from Pakistan. The country is still holding in one piece even tru all the violence and the military seem to still have their act together. Also I think people watch too many movies, it isn't easy to steal a nuke and smuggle it; governments know these really are the crown jewels and keep them really safe. Pakistan would really need to fall apart for this to happen.

 

[Eeshaan]

Thanks for the input there, NICO.

It also seemed to me that this is misinformation by Al Quaeda aimed at diverting the attention of western intelligence services from their current operations. Yes, it does sound a bit movie-esque.

The reason for them not using their nuke is that Bin Laden has yet to be captured or killed, just like the prisoner said ? Also, even if they had a nuclear weapon, it might not have come from Pakistan, maybe another rogue state such as North Korea ? Even the information on how to manufacture one, even crude, would be worth millions.

Agreed, it might not be a several megaton city-killer like what we have in our missles, but enough to cause serious radiation and environmental damage for decades ? Bin Laden pre-9/11 would have paid ALOT of money for such a weapon, no matter how crudely made.

But I seriously hope this is not true, just false information given to send the authorities on a wild goose chase...

 

[NICO]

This is one of the many reasons why I am against using torture. I think it creates in the minds of the policy makers way too much certainty about the quality of the intel when in fact it actually makes it more dubious. The guy is being tortured, he is going to say anything. ALQ could actually use this against us, send one team to get caught and just create havoc within intel community with all kinds of stories, make some of the intel verifiable,next thing you know,CIA is chasing people all over the world while in the mean time, the real ALQ terrorists prepares their attack unnoticed. I don't know if ALQ can do that since it does appear that they have been hurt and lost a lot of capability since 9-11.

Now, I don't think acquiring nuke is really their main objective, IMO it is just outside their technical ability.On the other hand, acquiring enough material for a dirty bomb or something similar (nerve agent proxy maybe) is more realistic and is just as dangerous.

IMO, I don't buy the theory that Pakistan, NKorea or Iran would just give terrorist like ALQ, HAMAS or HEZBOLLAH a nuke. Sorry, I just don't buy it. These things are sophisticated, very expensive and not that easy to smuggle/hide. Why would a country go threw years of sanctions and all the problems they face just to give control of a nuke to some terrorists? I have read enough of open source material out there to say that,yes, some countries support terrorism but that doesn't mean that they REALLY believe in them, trust them or have a very high regard for them! So why would they give them a nuke?

 

[Eeshaan]

IMO, I don't buy the theory that Pakistan, NKorea or Iran would just give terrorist like ALQ, HAMAS or HEZBOLLAH a nuke. Sorry, I just don't buy it. These things are sophisticated, very expensive and not that easy to smuggle/hide. Why would a country go threw years of sanctions and all the problems they face just to give control of a nuke to some terrorists? I have read enough of open source material out there to say that,yes, some countries support terrorism but that doesn't mean that they REALLY believe in them, trust them or have a very high regard for them! So why would they give them a nuke?

You have a point there. I was thinking of the information on how to make dirty bombs, crudely made nukes with less damage potential than more conventionally made ones. That is what any rogue state would give to a terrorist organization, if at all they would. Not full-fledged nuclear weapons IMHO...

 

[My2Cents]

OBL is dead by US hands.

Anything go BOOM yet?

 

[Eeshaan]

OBL is dead by US hands.

Anything go BOOM yet?

Nope, hopefully nothing does. Lets wait & see for the next few weeks

 

[Twinblade]

Someone really had the foresight to cook up this crazy story. Lemme stock some supplies and go into the underground bunker and check on you guys in a few weeks

 

[kazinau]

Actually, the issue with danger of terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons is a bit exaggerated. I'm talking mostly about a nuke hidden by AQ somewhere in a big European city. In theory it's impossible to bring a nuclear bomb undetected into a country, where there's a fully secured international border which is true for the EU 'outer rim'. There's intelligence, military intelligence, border control, ecological/meteo control, customs, police at last... I doubt any terrorist organization is able to deal with all that at once.

 

[My2Cents]

Actually, the issue with danger of terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons is a bit exaggerated. I'm talking mostly about a nuke hidden by AQ somewhere in a big European city. In theory it's impossible to bring a nuclear bomb undetected into a country, where there's a fully secured international border which is true for the EU 'outer rim'. There's intelligence, military intelligence, border control, ecological/meteo control, customs, police at last... I doubt any terrorist organization is able to deal with all that at once.

Keeping nuclear weapons out of the EU is no more difficult than keeping illegal drugs out and they never have had any problem doing that. Right? :flame

Smuggling a nuke into the EU would be much less difficult than obtaining the nuke in the first place. Countries probably have not done it because it would be seen as an open act of war if caught. But for terrorists that would not be considered an obstacle, just less than optimal. :sniper

 

[kazinau]

Keeping nuclear weapons out of the EU is no more difficult than keeping illegal drugs out and they never have had any problem doing that. Right? :flame

Smuggling a nuke into the EU would be much less difficult than obtaining the nuke in the first place. Countries probably have not done it because it would be seen as an open act of war if caught. But for terrorists that would not be considered an obstacle, just less than optimal. :sniper

Drugs is a source of profit for many people inside EU. This is the only reason why drugs come to any country with no problems. Nukes are no profit for no one. There is no nukes trafficking industry and black market of fissile materials.

I'm not saying it's impossible to smuggle a nuke inside EU. Impossible is nothing. I'm just saying, there are lots of various means of preventing that. I'm sure EU is able to cope with the problem.

 

[My2Cents]

Drugs is a source of profit for many people inside EU. This is the only reason why drugs come to any country with no problems. Nukes are no profit for no one. There is no nukes trafficking industry and black market of fissile materials.

Any nuke being smuggled into the EU will not be in box labeled “Nuclear Device – handle with care”, and most likely in components to conceal it’s nature. Those in smuggling it in would not know what they are conveying.

Components for a radiologic dispersion device would be even simpler to smuggle in.

And yes, there are black markets for fissile materials and radioactive materials. You just do not hear much about them. Most countries with nuclear asperations, including most of the Middle East, have been importing uranium through the black market for years. The market for weapons grade material is much smaller, of course, but they arrest someone for it at least once a year. So far the ones we know about are all sting operations, and all have involved either fraudulent material passed of a high enrichment uranium, or amounts no more than a couple grams. There is even a market for stolen gamma sources used in industrial construction for weld inspection.