Myanmar nuclear weapons

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
With this latest report and reports dating back to Aug 09 in Australia, what possible impact could this have in the region ? Especially with India and Pakistan already having it, what changes could we expect in the Indian Ocean region, with the whole of the Asian region going through an unprecedented arms build up. What impact could this have on future relations with China, North Korea and Myanmar (Burma) and how do you think countries such as India, Pakistan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and USA will respond to this ?
Interesting times ahead
 

dragonfire

New Member
With this latest report and reports dating back to Aug 09 in Australia, what possible impact could this have in the region ? Especially with India and Pakistan already having it, what changes could we expect in the Indian Ocean region, with the whole of the Asian region going through an unprecedented arms build up. What impact could this have on future relations with China, North Korea and Myanmar (Burma) and how do you think countries such as India, Pakistan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and USA will respond to this ?
Interesting times ahead
Someone from Myanmar defected with documents and photographs providing inputs regarding the budding the nuclear weapons program of Myanmar. As per news, the program is supported by North Korea.

India, China, Australia, South Korea, Japan and USA will not be appreciative of this program, Pakistan also received support from North Korea so they might be neutral. North Korea is obviously making money from such support.

But the program is supposed to be at a very early stage so a political solution could prevent Myanmar getting access to nuclear weapons.
 
I truly doubt that the program will make substantial progress to be effective. Now, US and UN forces will try to isolate Burma and NK much more in the future. Plus, I think that the regions surrounding Burma do not like the idea of a brutal military dictatorship possessing nuclear weapons. Even China may not like this idea.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Myanmar will not be able to produce nukes unless North Korea selss them weapons, which in turn will start a war.
You seem to think that everything will start a war. I note that you never explain how your hypothetical wars will start, who will fight who, where, how, etc. It's just 'a war'.

If you wish to have any credibility, you need to explain, not assert.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Well I don't think there will be a war because of this.

When the United States AND China both don't like something, something won't happen... Totaly without war, these too players have some major strings they can pull but mostly they are pulling in different directions ;)

And I realy don't think that China would just let it happen...
They want to control as much of these region as possible and nuclear powers tend to be a little hard to controle ;)

but that's just my 2 cents and I do not have any deeper knowledge about chinese politic.
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
Pakistan also received support from North Korea so they might be neutral.
I don't think so. I have had discussions with some of the people involved in Pakistan's nuclear program & they are very apprehensive about it. Plus; Pakistan's official and unofficial position is no more nuclear neighbors (that includes Iran). It is seen as strategic de-stability of the region.

DPRK never helped Pakistan in its nuclear program. From whats in the open source it is the other way around - but at the same time rejected by both states and no credible evidence available. Only thing Pakistan got from DPRK were Nodong-1 Missile as a base for its Ghuri missiles; & that deal took place only because Pakistan needed a MRBM on immediate basis (again this is from open source). Hence; DPRK cannot influence Pakistan in anyway.

Nuclear Myanmar will have adverse impact on region. I don't think India and Pakistan can handle any more arms race. Nor does it go in the favor of Chinese. China will have lesser influence on nuclear Myanmar.

The only thing that is clear now is that the Western Arms Control and foreign policy has failed. Isolation and military sanctions only push states to look towards the worse of alternatives = WMDs.

I think Kenneth Waltz predicted that almost every state (that can) will go nuclear. Problem is will the West come to realization and cease the opportunity and go for general and complete disarmament on global level - which means US taking the initiative - or all they would be doing is nut bolting NPT to save their weapons and restrict others; a step which has failed in case of the DPRK and may as well fail with other states, especially Iran.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If we take realist IR as the basis for our analysis then we are inevitably left to the post-colonialist Constructivist conclusion that the problem is the system of states itself, being a western construct, it is inherently a form of tutelage (see Kant), a form of intellectual dominance, not through a direct prescription of action, but a prescription of mode of thought, a forming of shape within which the individual states are left to pursue their own content (in this case security through nuclear weapons).
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
a nuclear Myanmer is the most dangerous threat to Bangladesh as the Tensions on the borders have been very high for the last 3 years. Already Myanmers decision to purchase 20 Mig-29s have caused the Bengali Govt to allocate record high amount of cash for weapons procurement. If the Nuclear Myanmer threat becomes more realistic Then Bangladesh could go on a arms race to match Myanmer. Also the Govt is negotiating the Purchase of a lot of new aircraft(Rumour has it Su-30s or MIg-35s or J-10s) and has already ordered a lot of new equipment for the navy(Check out the thread www.defencetalk.com/forums/navy-maritime/bangladesh-navy-desperately-trying-acquire-frigates-9963/)
and also they are negotiating the purchase of BUK-M!s
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If they get more planes from Russia I would expect more Fulcrums. Probably more second hand Fulcrums, or maybe newbuild Mig-29M. I don't see Flankers as likely.
 

usachemo

New Member
I think Kenneth Waltz predicted that almost every state (that can) will go nuclear. Problem is will the West come to realization and cease the opportunity and go for general and complete disarmament on global level - which means US taking the initiative - or all they would be doing is nut bolting NPT to save their weapons and restrict others; a step which has failed in case of the DPRK and may as well fail with other states, especially Iran.
The problem that this last paragraph does not take into account is this issue of countries that the US considers allies in the region. If we continue the rhetoric and actions of complete disarmament, which is the focus of the current administration, our allies in that region, who we have promised to protect with our nuclear umbrella, may also feel the need to go nuclear in order to protect themselves.

We think that if we take the lead, the moral high ground, that the bad guys will think "wow, we were wrong about those imperialistic Americans, let's follow their example." It hasn't worked with prisoners and I don't think it will work with nuclear weapons. Bad guys are bad guys. We didn't make them that way.

Even the smallest nuclear weapon is a strategic weapon. If Mayanmar or any other country in PACOM goes nuclear it will spur a nuclear arms race. I don't believe that it matters whether or not they "can" build a nuclear weapon. If one says they are working on it, everyone will work on it. That is something that we do not want to happen.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
If they get more planes from Russia I would expect more Fulcrums. Probably more second hand Fulcrums, or maybe newbuild Mig-29M. I don't see Flankers as likely.
I thought the same thing but then I talked to some Air force friends and they said that the Air force preferred the Su-35 and the Su-27sk above all other fighters and te govt could also be thinking within the same lines. I do agree that if we were to get Mig-29Ms and Mig-35s it would be better as we already operate fulcrums and our air crews are familiar with the design where as we have never operated any sukhoi air craft before let alone flankers.
 
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