Iran - S-300PMU1 Deal

[Feanor]

It has been confirmed. Iran is getting the S-300, and allegedly the deal is for 800 million, and 5 bltns of S-300PMU1. However it's also explicitly stated that Iran has not received the systems up until this point. The contract was signed two years ago and deliveries will now begin.

http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=68098&cid=24

The S-300/400 production line is backlogged by our MoD orders, meaning the units Iran gets will be like Kazakhstans, taken from military reserve, and modernized to the necessary standard.

So... any thoughts? Is this a signal to the new American administration about Russian views on Iran? Is this an attempt to make some easy money? Or maybe an attempt to assure Iran that Russia isn't going to let it down?

From a military standpoint the 5 bltns are a decent amount of coverage, if combined with the Tor M1s for SHORAD. However they're clearly not enough to cover even all the major cities. I suspect that 1-2 will be used for the capital, and the rest for nuclear sites. With the F/A-22A operational, the suppression of the systems is a matter of putting in the necessary effort on the part of the USA, but would make a strike by say Israel far less likely in my opinion.

EDIT: http://www.arms-expo.ru/site.xp/049051124055049050052.html

A worthy note, that the Foreign Affairs Ministry immediately issued a statement saying that Russia has not and is not delivering S-300 systems to Iran or any other Middle Eastern country. While the statement is a response to the news leaking out of ARMS-TASS and ITAR-TASS, it's not directly contradictory due to the wording. The statement about the sale came from a high ranking official of the FSVTS so there are good reasons to trust it as fairly reliable.

 

[ASFC]

With the F/A-22A operational, the suppression of the systems is a matter of putting in the necessary effort on the part of the USA, but would make a strike by say Israel far less likely in my opinion.

Or, on the flip side of the coin, the sale could force Israel to carry out a strike before the system reaches IOC. That could therefore make the chance of an Israeli strike higher, at least in the short term before the system is up an running. Once its up and running, I agree it makes an Israeli strike, for now, less likely.

 

[shrubage]

Or, on the flip side of the coin, the sale could force Israel to carry out a strike before the system reaches IOC. That could therefore make the chance of an Israeli strike higher, at least in the short term before the system is up an running. Once its up and running, I agree it makes an Israeli strike, for now, less likely.

It all depends on the US or Israeli reaction. I agree once the systems are operational then together with other Air defence systems currently being operated it makes a future strike against Iran from whatever source less likely.

However baring in mind what happened several years ago when the Greek cypriots attempted to install the systems against the wishes of Turkey then some sort of confrontation is entirely possible.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I haven't seen anything in other news reports that says the sale will definitely go ahead. If anything it's suggested that it will be used as a bargaining chip with Obama. Maybe he won't give Russia what it wants, but it doesn't mean it's a done-deal.

It would be bloody stupid to delay the sale for years and then start deliveries when a new president arrives who might actually make some of the concessions you've been demanding for ages!

 

[Feanor]

The statement is somewhat illusory. It clearly states that a contract has been signed two years ago. The contract includes more then just the S-300 deals, and other parts of the contract are being fullfilled. No S-300 have been delivered to date, but Russia intends to fullfill the contract for their delivery.

In other words: no S-300 yet, but they're definetly coming.

"ЗРС С-300 в рамках заключенного два года назад контракта в Иран не поставлялись, - сказал он. - При этом сам контракт постепенно выполняется".

 

[Haavarla]

Musashi_kenshin;170029] If anything it's suggested that it will be used as a bargaining chip with Obama. Maybe he won't give Russia what it wants, but it doesn't mean it's a done-deal.

Agreed.

Wasn't Clinton trying to bargin with the Russian Nuclear deal in Iran vs the Missile shield in Poland?

Consider the ealier SAM system exported to Iran, it's a fair bet that the S-300 will arrive at some point.. perhaps this year..perhaps next..:unknown

 

[cyberstranger]

Obviously, V. Putin and D. Medvedev want to use S300 as a bargain chip in talks with the Obama administration. Their message is clear: "Put your BMD plan on shelves and we won't sell S300 to Iran. However, I think they are bluffing because Russia has very limited influence on Iran.

 

[Feanor]

If that is the case, how are they bluffing? Are you suggesting that Russia can't stop itself from selling S-300 to Iran? If the meesage is indeed what you say it is, then no influence on Iran is required. Just some influence on Rosoboroneksport.

 

[cyberstranger]

Feanor, the same guys are behind Rosooboronoexport. The so-called siloviki (ex intelligence and security officials, military and police generals) seized control over Russia several years ago. They want to restore Russia's influence over former Soviet Republic. They got rich and they want to be treated by the West as equals. I hope that they will fail to do so.

 

[Feanor]

Right. I know this.

Now on to your claim. You said that it was a trade-off between selling the S-300 to Iran, and the BMD in Europe. You then said it's a bluff because Russia doesn't have influence on Iran. Do you not see the fallacy within your own statement? Russia doesn't need influence on Iran, to decline selling them the S-300....

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I think he merely phrased this thoughts incorrectly. What I read him as trying to say is that Russia wants the US to think that it has enough influence in Iran that it can help stop the military weapons programme.

It needs something concrete to offer in the short-term, which would be the SAM sale. So it can get the Americans to stop their BMD project, not sell the S-300 and then try to do something privately they know they had little or no chance of doing - stop the Iranians from getting the bomb. So then afterwards they say "well, we tried" and it's too late for the US to have a shield in place for Iran.

 

[Feanor]

A long ways passes between a working gravity bomb, and an ICBM capable of striking an American city accurately. More then enough time to deploy a missile shield.

 

[cyberstranger]

I think he merely phrased this thoughts incorrectly. What I read him as trying to say is that Russia wants the US to think that it has enough influence in Iran that it can help stop the military weapons programme.

It needs something concrete to offer in the short-term, which would be the SAM sale. So it can get the Americans to stop their BMD project, not sell the S-300 and then try to do something privately they know they had little or no chance of doing - stop the Iranians from getting the bomb. So then afterwards they say "well, we tried" and it's too late for the US to have a shield in place for Iran.

Thanks for your help. That's what I tried to explain.

 

[KV123]

Iran does not need the S-300, unless it targets isreal which i dont think they will do but what if isreal attacked iran with its nukes without reason what will happen to isreal will the US nuke isreal or use non-nuclear war other arab nations WILL attack isreal but what will be the US and NATO reaction, i would like to know the scenario you think will happen.

-Thanks in advance-

 

[Haavarla]

I think he merely phrased this thoughts incorrectly. What I read him as trying to say is that Russia wants the US to think that it has enough influence in Iran that it can help stop the military weapons programme.

It needs something concrete to offer in the short-term, which would be the SAM sale. So it can get the Americans to stop their BMD project, not sell the S-300 and then try to do something privately they know they had little or no chance of doing - stop the Iranians from getting the bomb. So then afterwards they say "well, we tried" and it's too late for the US to have a shield in place for Iran.

If Iran houses terror activity inside Iran, it does not by any means mean that the State Iran will go ahead and nuke Israelis, USA , Europe or any other nations...
Why risk utter annihilation?

The White House know this, so should you.. thus the diplomation reach toward Iran.

Just take a look at Pakistan, the so called US Allied in Asia... go figure.
On the Pakistan countryside there is very little US support.
Still Pakistan is US frendly.

Your answer is borderline paranoia..
Russia have every right to sell S-300 to country like Iran.
The last thing we should do is list up the countries or rebels within certain countries the US have sold weapons to.

The fact that US try to Link their missile shield in Europe with the Russian
S-300 Iran deal is ridiculous and will not carry any sucsess.

 

[Feanor]

Except that the US didn't link the S-300 deal to the missile shield. They linked Russian cooperation on the issue of Iranian missile development to the cancellation of plans for a BMD system aimed at Iran. Makes perfect sense.

 

[HKSDU]

Iran does not need the S-300, unless it targets isreal which i dont think they will do but what if isreal attacked iran with its nukes without reason what will happen to isreal will the US nuke isreal or use non-nuclear war other arab nations WILL attack isreal but what will be the US and NATO reaction, i would like to know the scenario you think will happen.

-Thanks in advance-

US wont do much, in fact their export deals to Israel might florish. Israel attack on Gaza, US reacts little, and doesnt even enforce an arms embargo. If it doesnt concern, benefit or threaten the power status or its nation, US will do little if not all. Having S-300 isnt for pure offence, S-300 can be for defence denying Israel their fighters to achieve air dominance over Iran, so having a proven technology in your arsenal that is suitable isnt uncessary.

 

[Ibizan Hound]

The S-300 is a defensive machine that Iran need because they are facing threats from two nuclear powers. Should Iran have them? Yes, they certainly should. It's sidiculous to request that a nation not put up intercepters when facing the threats that they are facing. Iran has a few of these but this one is being purchased from Russia directly. This is kind of a tease against israel more than anything.

 

[Josef]

The S-300 is a defensive machine that Iran need because they are facing threats from two nuclear powers. Should Iran have them?

IRAN cannot have S-300 missiles,it will only provoke Israel.


Iran should submit itself to more stringent U.S. nuclear inspections.