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Scenario: South Africa in 2020

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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #1
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Scenario: South Africa in 2020

Good day to you all,

I will set up the following hypothetical scenario in order to provide background to my questions that will follow. I ask that you please keep an open mind. I know that some of you may perhaps not know much about the situation here in South Africa simply because it is almost totally ignored by international media.

The scenario:

South Africa descends into civil war in 2020 with various black rebel groups opposing the state and its militia.

The European minority (at 8% currently, 4.3 million) is targeted by the state, its militia, and the rebel groups. Partial genocide occurs. Most Europeans who survived fled to an area encompassing the southern parts of the Northern Cape Province and the northern parts of the Western Cape Province – an area straddling the Orange River to the Atlantic coast. For ease of reference we will call this area the Orange Cape (OC). This area is relatively safer than the rest of the country due to very low population and other demographic factors.

The SANDF, in very poor shape before the onset of war, is unable to control any large area. With a limited operational capability they have assumed a defensive posture protecting national key points (The main cities, airports, harbours etc.).

Most of the fighting takes place between the government militia (at times supported by the SANDF) and rebel opposition groups.

The conflict is thus, initially, predominantly unconventional in nature.

The regime is supported by China with limited direct military assistance from Zimbabwe and Namibia. Nigeria supports the main rebel groups.

Six months after the onset of war the European population would be around 2.5 million in the OC (Mostly Afrikaner/Boer). We have only small arms, e.g. hunting rifles like the 308, a few semi automatic rifles. Limited ammunition, but developing a production capacity. Very little fuel. Highly skilled doctors, little medicine. Highly skilled engineers. Moral is good enough to maintain a relatively cohesive defense. Essentially unintentional, but yet a burgeoning independent state in the making – not yet a real political entity.

There is no support, initially, from any other group or state.

Part of the political ideology of both the regime and the opposition rebel groups is the call for the complete extermination of the “foreigners”. The OC is increasingly viewed as an existential threat. As such, in-between fighting each other, groups of fighters (regime militia and rebels) enter the de facto borders of the OC where contact is made with the defenders -with growing regularity and intensity.

In such a scenario, how does one approach the military situation in terms of defence?

With regards to:
- Strategy
- Organisation & structure
- Tactics

What examples from history may be of use?

You can be as specific or as general as you like. I know that it may be difficult to image this scenario and therefore difficult to provide clear cut answers, but any input would be much appreciated!

I am willing to provide more clarity or expand on any particular matter, and if needed, provide my reasoning behind the elements of the scenario.

I would just like to be clear that I do not in any way wish that this scenario come true. May I also just ask to please refrain from any derogatory comments directed at any particular race.

Thank you
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #2
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What about the colored group, who make up a large part of the population in the Western Cape province and Cape Town?

They are mainly european in culture, speak Afrikaans and do no sympathise with the African majority and the mainly African dominated government.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #3
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What about the colored group, who make up a large part of the population in the Western Cape province and Cape Town?

They are mainly european in culture, speak Afrikaans and do no sympathise with the African majority and the mainly African dominated government.
Correct, and this adds an important dimension. Thank you. They definitely do not side with the African regime - or associate with African culture. It is with no doubt that I see them siding with the Boers - by in large they already do.

They will prevent the government from easily controlling Cape Town, they would harass them endlessly - tying down regime forces very much needed elsewhere. The reason why Cape Town is not included in the OC is that the government would at the outset invest in it heavily given the ports and Koeberg nuclear station, and as such it would be too hot for the Boers to want to evacuate to there Or for the Boers already there to stay.

The Coloreds in Cape Town will fight tooth and nail, think Cape Flats. The ones already in the OC, of which there are many, will join the Boere at onset. The Coloreds in the Eastern Cape like East London and Port Elizabeth will flee westwards away from the Xhosa towards Cape Town or the OC.

They will play a crucial role, might even tilt the balance in our favor.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #4
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My first post condensed what is actually a very complex situation. Many factors and variables are at play, like the Colored community as pointed out by Regstrup.

I will attempt to unpack the full scenario bit by bit.

Some insight into the current:

I believe I cannot post links as yet, but you can you tube: “President Zuma sings Kill the Boer (white man)” and Malema: “I am not calling for the killing of all whites... not just yet”. These are recorded on camera and were broadcast nationwide. You can also google “South Africa Genocide” or “farm murders South Africa”.

Some websites might say that there is no evidence that white people are being killed proportionately more than black, this is only true if one does not consider that the regime (by decree) has stopped the recording of race in all murder cases many years ago. As such the regime and others can rightfully claim that there is no statistical evidence.

You tube or google “South Africa protest capital of the world” or just “protests in South Africa”.

There are over 114 laws that directly discriminate against the white minority – many more that discriminate indirectly. Not much different to the 30’s in Germany against the Jews.

There is much much more going on, but I hope this will be enough to inform the reader that the situation in SA, at the very least, warrants my exploration of the scenario as described.

I do appreciate that the extensive knowledge and experience of the members on this site may not directly translate into answering questions regarding our somewhat unique situation. Nonetheless, I cannot think of any better alternative source.
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Two thoughts come to mind.

The first is a question, namely what do the various combatants consider an acceptable outcome for 'their' side? Without any sort of definable goals, then all discussion is rather moot.

The second is that DT might not be the appropriate venue for discussing such a scenario, especially depending on what the goals of the various combatants are in the scenario. Apart from domestic civil conflicts being complex, messy situations, discussion of such topics is quite often very inflammatory, with the 'right' and 'wrong' POV being highly subjective and dependent on the observer.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #6
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Originally Posted by Boer Kommando View Post
My first post condensed what is actually a very complex situation. Many factors and variables are at play, like the Colored community as pointed out by Regstrup.

I will attempt to unpack the full scenario bit by bit.

Some insight into the current:

I believe I cannot post links as yet, but you can you tube: “President Zuma sings Kill the Boer (white man)” and Malema: “I am not calling for the killing of all whites... not just yet”. These are recorded on camera and were broadcast nationwide. You can also google “South Africa Genocide” or “farm murders South Africa”.

Some websites might say that there is no evidence that white people are being killed proportionately more than black, this is only true if one does not consider that the regime (by decree) has stopped the recording of race in all murder cases many years ago. As such the regime and others can rightfully claim that there is no statistical evidence.

You tube or google “South Africa protest capital of the world” or just “protests in South Africa”.

There are over 114 laws that directly discriminate against the white minority – many more that discriminate indirectly. Not much different to the 30’s in Germany against the Jews.

There is much much more going on, but I hope this will be enough to inform the reader that the situation in SA, at the very least, warrants my exploration of the scenario as described.

I do appreciate that the extensive knowledge and experience of the members on this site may not directly translate into answering questions regarding our somewhat unique situation. Nonetheless, I cannot think of any better alternative source.
This thread appears to be a political topic and as such contravenes the forum rules. I would suggest that you read them thoroughly before you go any further with this thread. The Moderators will be keeping an extremely close eye on this thread.
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Old 2 Weeks Ago   #7
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Under the Geneva Convention it is legal for any group fearing for its survival to flee to any area of the country. It is also legal under South African law for one to protect oneself. I include this paragraph only to highlight the fact that nothing I discus on here is illegal under both international and South African law.

In my previous posts I thought to just provide some context so people can understand the current situation and so understand the scenario. I see now how this can become a quagmire.

I sincerely apologize for bringing politics into it.

If I may just answer Todjaeger concerning goals. Thereafter I will refrain from any further discourse that can even remotely be seen as political.

@Todjaeger - The existence of the OC has occurred naturally as a place of refuge. The people in the OC are internally displaced refugees. The goal is quite simple, it is to survive. As such it must organise some sort of defence. There is no offensive capability or desire and no other intention but to survive.

The goal of the state (and its militia) is to stay in power. The goal of the rebel groups is to bring down the state and take over power (The OC is NOT one of these rebel groups – they are non combatants!). Both these combatants have a secondary goal of destroying the OC and its inhabitants (ethnic cleansing).

.........................

Hence forth we will divorce ourselves completely from the political aspects and purely focus on the technical, i.e. how does a civilian population (any civilian population) in a defined geographic area, with only small arms, outnumbered etc., defend itself against small and large groups who also have mostly small arms?

What strategy and tactics would such a group (any group anywhere in the world in similar circumstances) use?

I hope that Admin finds me sincere and my correction of course sufficient.

Last edited by Boer Kommando; 2 Weeks Ago at 03:59 PM.
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Originally Posted by Boer Kommando View Post

Hence forth we will divorce ourselves completely from the political aspects and purely focus on the technical, i.e. how does a civilian population (any civilian population) in a defined geographic area, with only small arms, outnumbered etc., defend itself against small and large groups who also have mostly small arms?

What strategy and tactics would such a group (any group anywhere in the world in similar circumstances) use?

I hope that Admin finds me sincere and my correction of course sufficient.
If you don't see a way for peaceful reconciliation, declare independence and appeal to the UN and western powers for assistance and/or stabilization forces.

See the early days of Israel, Lebanon/Hezbollah, Syrian resistance, and Palestine for examples.

Look to import better weapons and equipment from abroad. There are many countries who will sell advanced equipment for the right price. Initially start with military-grade small arms, but climb the ladder to support weapons, ATGMs, more advanced comms and EW, artillery, and so on. Eventually work towards buying/building armored vehicles, helicopters, etc.. Much depends on your budget here.

Enlist and train the best you have to form a cadre of higher quality troops. However, it sounds like all able-bodied people will have to be ready to fight. So all may need to participate in training and the "national" reserves.
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If you don't see a way for peaceful reconciliation, declare independence and appeal to the UN and western powers for assistance and/or stabilization forces.

See the early days of Israel, Lebanon/Hezbollah, Syrian resistance, and Palestine for examples.

Look to import better weapons and equipment from abroad. There are many countries who will sell advanced equipment for the right price. Initially start with military-grade small arms, but climb the ladder to support weapons, ATGMs, more advanced comms and EW, artillery, and so on. Eventually work towards buying/building armored vehicles, helicopters, etc.. Much depends on your budget here.

Enlist and train the best you have to form a cadre of higher quality troops. However, it sounds like all able-bodied people will have to be ready to fight. So all may need to participate in training and the "national" reserves.
Thank you, B.Smitty

The Boers have been vilified for decades and as such support is not expected – especially from the likes of the UN.

There are many Boer industrialists living abroad. I will also mention that Boers do not lack in military experience – there would be no lack of instructors.

The constitution of SA provides that any ethic group my seek some form of independence (The Boers negotiated this during Codessa)- although the particulars are muddled and would mean nothing during a civil war - but worth a mention nonetheless.

None of the above is political, it is merely a statement of fact, facts that any party would agree with.

I seek answers/questions pertaining to organisation, strategy and tactics with regards to the scenario as described. The acquisition of arms, but only in reference to strategy and tactics.
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I think the idea of declaring an independent state and appealing for international aid is the only realistic option. The importation of military weapons (small and medium) might be more problematic but sympathetic players would likely make them available. I realize we don't want ethnic conflict discussions here but the threat of hundreds of thousands of colored and whites being killed off by the black majority (rebels or govt or whoever) would make it impossible for the 5eyes and Euros to ignore.
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I try to glean parallels from history. Genocides like Rwanda, Germany, Armenia, Bosnia, Cambodia, Kurdish ...

I have read some on Polish and Russian civilians, partisans. The French??

I have read many Marxist revolutionary handbooks along with US military handbooks covering unconventional/guerrilla warfare, e.g. FM 31-21. As handbooks go I find them elementary.

I have read much on the conflicts surrounding the decolonization of Africa.

In the main I study the first and the second Boer war. Also our border war against the Russians, East Germans and Cubans in Angola. For us the cold war was not so cold.

Of course no war is the same, and no easy parallels drawn, but I have found very little that I can use as even a baseline to the scenario, so remote are the similarities. Certain aspects, yes, but very little. It seems that most ethic minorities do fight back at some point, but mostly lose.

But not one example I can find mirrors the Boers - or the adjectives that company the Boers.

I have read many discussions on this forum where people have opposing views, sometimes ideological, yet technical military discussion was observed throughout. I ask only that you treat this thread the same.
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You will have to rely (hope) on Russia and China to pressure the ANC to hold back the bulk of the militias while the targeted minorities create safe zones and protect themselves from the more radical militias.

Anyone who is expecting *timely* international intervention is naive. Thousands will be getting macheted while the US State Dpt representative will be expressing his deep concern and the Pentagon/CIA will be doing some partner building with hardcore black nationalists.

And before someone blows up about what I said: We just saw this play out in front of our eyes. The "Train & Equip" program.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian..._Equip_Program
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I think the idea of declaring an independent state and appealing for international aid is the only realistic option. The importation of military weapons (small and medium) might be more problematic but sympathetic players would likely make them available. I realize we don't want ethnic conflict discussions here but the threat of hundreds of thousands of colored and whites being killed off by the black majority (rebels or govt or whoever) would make it impossible for the 5eyes and Euros to ignore.
Good day, John

Independent state... that is only possible if we exist. But for long term survival you are totally right. John, the scenario as I see it necessitates certain defensive measures (the nature of which is why I am here). That is what I am interested in. Short term survival. Naturally I agree that after initial survival we will need more. That is why I mentioned the Boer industrialists abroad - not exactly poor.

Nigeria is gagging for a bite (incidentally one of the only African countries not being eaten up by China). They will side with the likes of the EFF.

John, no country will aid us. There will be no intervention on our part. Decades of propaganda.

We do try. We have gone to the UN on many occasions. It is all on record.

I am sorry for going into politics, forgive me. I would like to hear advice (divorced from politics) as based on my scenario questions. Civilians, small arms etc.
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You will have to rely (hope) on Russia and China to pressure the ANC to hold back the bulk of the militias while the targeted minorities create safe zones and protect themselves from the more radical militias.

Anyone who is expecting *timely* international intervention is naive. Thousands will be getting macheted while the US State Dpt representative will be expressing his deep concern and the Pentagon/CIA will be doing some partner building with hardcore black nationalists.

I agree with what you have said. Only that I do not quite understand "more radical" you know what the president's favorite song is right...
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Of course no war is the same, and no easy parallels drawn, but I have found very little that I can use as even a baseline to the scenario, so remote are the similarities. Certain aspects, yes, but very little. It seems that most ethic minorities do fight back at some point, but mostly lose.
The Israelis have been viscerally hated ethnic minorities in their region since Israel's inception. Yet they survived.

Play the news/social media political game. Shape the story. Use all means to get it out. Show the world the Boers have changed. Make them sympathetic to your cause.

Calling folks "Coloreds" doesn't message well in the US (even with Trump in the WH). They are your "brothers in arms fighting for a free South Africa."

You won't win with hunting rifles. Rebel groups likely will have all manner of small arms including RPGs, recoilless rifles, mortars, AAA mounted on technicals, and so on. You need at least the same, if not better, to win.

South Africa has/had a fairly robust defense industry. Get what you can from in country. There are many countries that will sell you stuff if you have the money.
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