Boer Kommando
Member
Good day to you all,
I will set up the following hypothetical scenario in order to provide background to my questions that will follow. I ask that you please keep an open mind. I know that some of you may perhaps not know much about the situation here in South Africa simply because it is almost totally ignored by international media.
The scenario:
South Africa descends into civil war in 2020 with various black rebel groups opposing the state and its militia.
The European minority (at 8% currently, 4.3 million) is targeted by the state, its militia, and the rebel groups. Partial genocide occurs. Most Europeans who survived fled to an area encompassing the southern parts of the Northern Cape Province and the northern parts of the Western Cape Province – an area straddling the Orange River to the Atlantic coast. For ease of reference we will call this area the Orange Cape (OC). This area is relatively safer than the rest of the country due to very low population and other demographic factors.
The SANDF, in very poor shape before the onset of war, is unable to control any large area. With a limited operational capability they have assumed a defensive posture protecting national key points (The main cities, airports, harbours etc.).
Most of the fighting takes place between the government militia (at times supported by the SANDF) and rebel opposition groups.
The conflict is thus, initially, predominantly unconventional in nature.
The regime is supported by China with limited direct military assistance from Zimbabwe and Namibia. Nigeria supports the main rebel groups.
Six months after the onset of war the European population would be around 2.5 million in the OC (Mostly Afrikaner/Boer). We have only small arms, e.g. hunting rifles like the 308, a few semi automatic rifles. Limited ammunition, but developing a production capacity. Very little fuel. Highly skilled doctors, little medicine. Highly skilled engineers. Moral is good enough to maintain a relatively cohesive defense. Essentially unintentional, but yet a burgeoning independent state in the making – not yet a real political entity.
There is no support, initially, from any other group or state.
Part of the political ideology of both the regime and the opposition rebel groups is the call for the complete extermination of the “foreigners”. The OC is increasingly viewed as an existential threat. As such, in-between fighting each other, groups of fighters (regime militia and rebels) enter the de facto borders of the OC where contact is made with the defenders -with growing regularity and intensity.
In such a scenario, how does one approach the military situation in terms of defence?
With regards to:
- Strategy
- Organisation & structure
- Tactics
What examples from history may be of use?
You can be as specific or as general as you like. I know that it may be difficult to image this scenario and therefore difficult to provide clear cut answers, but any input would be much appreciated!
I am willing to provide more clarity or expand on any particular matter, and if needed, provide my reasoning behind the elements of the scenario.
I would just like to be clear that I do not in any way wish that this scenario come true. May I also just ask to please refrain from any derogatory comments directed at any particular race.
Thank you
I will set up the following hypothetical scenario in order to provide background to my questions that will follow. I ask that you please keep an open mind. I know that some of you may perhaps not know much about the situation here in South Africa simply because it is almost totally ignored by international media.
The scenario:
South Africa descends into civil war in 2020 with various black rebel groups opposing the state and its militia.
The European minority (at 8% currently, 4.3 million) is targeted by the state, its militia, and the rebel groups. Partial genocide occurs. Most Europeans who survived fled to an area encompassing the southern parts of the Northern Cape Province and the northern parts of the Western Cape Province – an area straddling the Orange River to the Atlantic coast. For ease of reference we will call this area the Orange Cape (OC). This area is relatively safer than the rest of the country due to very low population and other demographic factors.
The SANDF, in very poor shape before the onset of war, is unable to control any large area. With a limited operational capability they have assumed a defensive posture protecting national key points (The main cities, airports, harbours etc.).
Most of the fighting takes place between the government militia (at times supported by the SANDF) and rebel opposition groups.
The conflict is thus, initially, predominantly unconventional in nature.
The regime is supported by China with limited direct military assistance from Zimbabwe and Namibia. Nigeria supports the main rebel groups.
Six months after the onset of war the European population would be around 2.5 million in the OC (Mostly Afrikaner/Boer). We have only small arms, e.g. hunting rifles like the 308, a few semi automatic rifles. Limited ammunition, but developing a production capacity. Very little fuel. Highly skilled doctors, little medicine. Highly skilled engineers. Moral is good enough to maintain a relatively cohesive defense. Essentially unintentional, but yet a burgeoning independent state in the making – not yet a real political entity.
There is no support, initially, from any other group or state.
Part of the political ideology of both the regime and the opposition rebel groups is the call for the complete extermination of the “foreigners”. The OC is increasingly viewed as an existential threat. As such, in-between fighting each other, groups of fighters (regime militia and rebels) enter the de facto borders of the OC where contact is made with the defenders -with growing regularity and intensity.
In such a scenario, how does one approach the military situation in terms of defence?
With regards to:
- Strategy
- Organisation & structure
- Tactics
What examples from history may be of use?
You can be as specific or as general as you like. I know that it may be difficult to image this scenario and therefore difficult to provide clear cut answers, but any input would be much appreciated!
I am willing to provide more clarity or expand on any particular matter, and if needed, provide my reasoning behind the elements of the scenario.
I would just like to be clear that I do not in any way wish that this scenario come true. May I also just ask to please refrain from any derogatory comments directed at any particular race.
Thank you