The possibility for Australia involing in TaiwanStrait Conflict

[bonita.h]

Japan has recently signed a defence accord with australia, which provoke China slightly. That's Japan's first defence accord with other country except that with US. Both side should provide military assistance to each other according to it if necessary.
IF China takes military actions to reunify Taiwan(which seems very possible in the forthcoming 10 years) and japan intervene. Does there exists any possibility for Australia involving in ?imo,Aus will but could only stay on the stage of logistic assistance,
What's your opinions ??

 

[Aussie Digger]

Japan has recently signed a defence accord with australia, which provoke China slightly. That's Japan's first defence accord with other country except that with US. Both side should provide military assistance to each other according to it if necessary.
IF China takes military actions to reunify Taiwan(which seems very possible in the forthcoming 10 years) and japan intervene. Does there exists any possibility for Australia involving in ?imo,Aus will but could only stay on the stage of logistic assistance,
What's your opinions ??

I think any war in the Taiwan straits would be a disaster foreign policy wise for Australia. We are making concerted efforts to remain friendly with ALL sides of this potential conflict.

I cannot see us taking part militarily in any such war. If Switzerland, Finland and Sweden can remain "neutral" between the USA and Russia and yet retain good (or at least "polite") relations with these Countries, I don't see why Australia cannot, in our circumstances. I cannot see one single benefit for Australia taking sides in such a conflict...

 

[Manfred]

Austrailia also lacks the kind of Navy that could have any influence on a large air/sea battle, so this is a moot point at best.

Penny wise, pound foolish. If China gets its carriers and decides to go all the way to Darwin, and Indonesia gives them the nod (likely) then they could do that too.

 

[Tasman]

Austrailia also lacks the kind of Navy that could have any influence on a large air/sea battle, so this is a moot point at best.

I disagree with this. As we are probably talking about a scenario set some years from now the RAN's new Hobart class destroyers and the existing Collins class submarines could play a valuable role as part of a combined US/Japanese/Australian fleet.

Penny wise, pound foolish. If China gets its carriers and decides to go all the way to Darwin, and Indonesia gives them the nod (likely) then they could do that too

Any Australian involvement would be alongside the USA. There is just no way, in that scenario, that China would risk the almost certain annihilation of its fleet by sailing it to Darwin.

BTW, I agree completely with Aussie Digger re this issue. Australia would gain nothing but would stand to lose plenty by getting involved in a conflict with China over Taiwan.

The Fairfax press reports the Australian Prime Minister as saying:

"It's a declaration. It's not a treaty, it won't be a full treaty. It might ultimately lead to that but what we have in mind is a security declaration that will enunciate some principles concerning our security relationship.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Se...n-not-treaty-PM/2007/03/11/1173548024023.html

It doesn't sound from that as though the 'pact' would oblige Australia do commit forces when it was not in its interests to do so.


Cheers

 

[Aussie Digger]

Austrailia also lacks the kind of Navy that could have any influence on a large air/sea battle, so this is a moot point at best.

Penny wise, pound foolish. If China gets its carriers and decides to go all the way to Darwin, and Indonesia gives them the nod (likely) then they could do that too.

As Tasman already pointed out, I don't think you have the faintest idea what you're talking about.

6x Collins class subs, with their new Mk 48 Mod 7 ADCAP Torpedo's and Harpoon Block II, would leave a VERY large influence on any Chinese attempts to "fight" their way to Australia...

Those Chinese carriers, would make excellent dive wrecks I'm sure...


If deployed to a war in Taiwan straits, they would prove to be very painful for China in any such battle...

The AWD's would also be very effective, if deployed and it's likely Australia will have it's AWD's operational before China has her carriers ready, IMHO.

 

[old faithful]

China is Australias 2nd largest trading partner...i doubt if we would participate in any armed confict against her at the presant or forseeable future.

 

[Zzims]

We cant really downplay PLA Navy,rumour was that they stalked American Carrier groups before. If that was true they would have no problem stalking Australian Ships also. In any case if Australia was to go into the conflict on the Japanese side, China would strike back with her navy into Australia just to make a point that, "Dont think your too far away for us to hit you".

 

[Aussie Digger]

We cant really downplay PLA Navy,rumour was that they stalked American Carrier groups before. If that was true they would have no problem stalking Australian Ships also. In any case if Australia was to go into the conflict on the Japanese side, China would strike back with her navy into Australia just to make a point that, "Dont think your too far away for us to hit you".

I very much doubt China's navy could do anything to hurt Australia, significantly. You might fire an ICBM at us too, but that would significantly widen the scope of the conflict and would be a dangerous move for China...

As I said earlier, there's is a lot to lose and very little for Australia to gain from joining such a conflict. I DO NOT THINK Australia would involve itself in any such conflict.

I was merely attempting to introduce some realism into the debate and address the obvious gaps in Manfred's knowledge of RAN's capability...

Capability wise ADF COULD deploy assets to take part in such a conflict and could make a very useful addition to the forces involved.

Politically, there's too much at stake to realistically contemplate doing such.

 

[Zzims]

I agree, the Chinese couldn't do significant dmg towards Australia with Allied fleets were to get in the way. But Psychologicaly it would be effective toward the population. Make em rethink of attacking mainland china when their own cities are in endanger. IMho, a couple of cruise missile does have the effect of making people rethink a couple of times.

American Bombers did it on Tokyo, shattering the once thought invincible defense of Japan main islands during WW2.

 

[bonita.h]

Yes,the key point is not whether Aus has the capability to involve such conflict, but that if Aus could gain any profits from evolvement or if she could withstand the diplomatic pressure from US and Japan. maybe we could get perfect precedent from the Iraq War ..(IMO)

 

[Pathfinder-X]

I think we can effectively conclude that Australia has close to nothing to gain by involving itself with the Taiwan mess. Both politcially and militarily it could turn into a disaster.

As far as China fighting its way south goes, it's more likely that I will travel back in time and save Kennedy from getting his head blown off. Their navy is effectively restricted to their coastal waters even with the recent modernization effort.

In another news, a Chinese carrier has been confirmed by a senior PLA officer during their congress meeting. He gave the date of 2010, but it's not clear if construction is set to begin that year or completed by that date. Also, their 093 SSN has been deployed to Hainan province.

 

[Tasman]

So far no one has put forward any ways in which involvement in a Taiwan Strait conflict would be in Australia's interests. On the other hand the fact that it could well be a political, economic and military disaster has been clearly stated. I guess the only factor that could push Australia into such a conflict would be intense pressure from the USA, but I can't see what sort of pressure America would be likely to apply that would cause Australia to act in a way that is clearly not in its interests. Nor do I believe that the USA would attempt to pressure Australia in this way.

Cheers

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

We cant really downplay PLA Navy,rumour was that they stalked American Carrier groups before.

It's never a good idea to rely on rumours. In this case it is almost certain the PLAN submarine was already there, because the USN was carrying out annual exercises, which always took place in the same area. In war there's no way a Chinese submarine could stalk a USN carrier because it wouldn't be fast enough to keep up, let alone close the distance.

In any case if Australia was to go into the conflict on the Japanese side, China would strike back with her navy into Australia just to make a point that, "Dont think your too far away for us to hit you".

First of all, the PLAN doesn't have the capability to project power all the way to Australia. Second, even if it could scrape together a "taskforce" to attack Australia, it would have zero air-cover = game over. Third, let's just imagine that China had obtained an aircraft carrier and it wasn't engaged somewhere else - it still wouldn't be enough.

As to the rest, Australia would not intervene militarily. However it is likely it would join many other countries in placing sanctions on China - it's highly likely Taiwan would be so suicidal as to act in a way that would make it lose support from the international community.

 

[aaaditya]

Japan has recently signed a defence accord with australia, which provoke China slightly. That's Japan's first defence accord with other country except that with US. Both side should provide military assistance to each other according to it if necessary.
IF China takes military actions to reunify Taiwan(which seems very possible in the forthcoming 10 years) and japan intervene. Does there exists any possibility for Australia involving in ?imo,Aus will but could only stay on the stage of logistic assistance,
What's your opinions ??

japan has also signed a defence accord for joint millitary cooperation with india.

 

[Rich]

I 2nd the opinion the PLAN would have a real, real bad time with the RAN. Those Collins class boats are really lethal and respected in the boat community. They are a big enough threat that the PLAN would have to divert a lot of resources to deal with them, and they dont have those resources. Even 10 to 20 years from now what possible gain could there be for them to leave their land based air cover behind?

Its in their interest to limit world reaction to an invasion, not widen it. They have absolutely nothing to gain by attacking the Australians. Even if Australia allowed basing rights to US forces it still wouldn't be in their interest to widen the conflict.

At this stage of the game triggering ANZUS would be a disaster for them. The Chinese need the economic ties they have with Australia. Food imports alone are extremely important to them. The last time I checked the Chinese, who love a good steak, get 85% of their imported beef from the Aussies. "I'm just using that as an example".

Even in the future, and say the Chinese go nuts, the Aussies are spending enough on the right systems that they wouldn't even need us Yanks if the PLAN sent task forces towards their land mass.

 

[TrangleC]

Actually i'm rather astonished to read a chinese write that such a conflict is likely. I lived in China for one year and have a lot of friends there and i never heard anybody say anything like that. In my experience all the people i talked to had no hostile attitude towards Taiwan or the USA, nor did they think there would ever be a military conflict like this. It was just in 2003 when i was there and due to the Iraq invasion the "anti-american" sentiments were at a peak in Europe at that time and so the contrast compared to China became very obvious and striking to me. It seems as if China might be one of the last places outside the USA where a majority of people still have this romantic and naive picture of the USA as the homeland of the legendary american dream and land of the free and so on. They see the USA as a role model and rather want to send their children there to study instead of making war with it. Even in the official state media i never witnessed any anti american attitude or comments.

Since then this agressive anti chinese "it's only a matter of time till we are at war with them"-attitude that seems to be all over the USA, seems very ridiculous and primitive to me, i must say.

I think the chinese know very well that they are "winning the peace" and so are not interested in war at all.
With all the rapid economical and even political progress China is making, i think it might even be that the taiwanese choose to re-join China freely one day, to be part of this success.
After all the "made in Taiwan" sticker isn't as common on products found in western supermarkets and electronic stores anymore as it was 10 years ago. Did you ever notice that?

That either means that Taiwan isn't selling as much stuff to us anymore because (mainland) Chinatook over market shares from them, or it means that taiwanese companies are producing cheaper on the mainland.
That is actually the case, as far as i have learned from TV reports and from what my chinese friends told me. It seems as if the unification is already on it's way from a economical point of view.
Maybe we have to get used to the idea that that might just be typical and the chinese way. I mean that the economy and businessmen do what politicians aren't doing. After all it is the same with China's opening. China isn't the same anymore as it was 20 years ago and that although it's still officially controlled by the same political party that officially still upholds the same old political ideals as in Mao's times. But hughe changes are going on beneath this blanket and i think it will be the same with the relations between China and Taiwan.
It would be wrong to block that out of colonial, hegemonial sentiments by the USA. They should stay there as long as the Taiwanese still wnat their protection (and with "the taiwanese" i mean the people and not some military hunta), but if the day should ever come when a majority of taiwanese should want the reunification, i hope the USA will not oppose it just because it would lose a few military bases.

 

[Tasman]

Actually i'm rather astonished to read a chinese write that such a conflict is likely. I lived in China for one year and have a lot of friends there and i never heard anybody say anything like that. In my experience all the people i talked to had no hostile attitude towards Taiwan or the USA, nor did they think there would ever be a military conflict like this. It was just in 2003 when i was there and due to the Iraq invasion the "anti-american" sentiments were at a peak in Europe at that time and so the contrast compared to China became very obvious and striking to me. It seems as if China might be one of the last places outside the USA where a majority of people still have this romantic and naive picture of the USA as the homeland of the legendary american dream and land of the free and so on. They see the USA as a role model and rather want to send their children there to study instead of making war with it. Even in the official state media i never witnessed any anti american attitude or comments.

Since then this agressive anti chinese "it's only a matter of time till we are at war with them"-attitude that seems to be all over the USA, seems very ridiculous and primitive to me, i must say.

I think the chinese know very well that they are "winning the peace" and so are not interested in war at all.
With all the rapid economical and even political progress China is making, i think it might even be that the taiwanese choose to re-join China freely one day, to be part of this success.
After all the "made in Taiwan" sticker isn't as common on products found in western supermarkets and electronic stores anymore as it was 10 years ago. Did you ever notice that?

That either means that Taiwan isn't selling as much stuff to us anymore because (mainland) Chinatook over market shares from them, or it means that taiwanese companies are producing cheaper on the mainland.
That is actually the case, as far as i have learned from TV reports and from what my chinese friends told me. It seems as if the unification is already on it's way from a economical point of view.
Maybe we have to get used to the idea that that might just be typical and the chinese way. I mean that the economy and businessmen do what politicians aren't doing. After all it is the same with China's opening. China isn't the same anymore as it was 20 years ago and that although it's still officially controlled by the same political party that officially still upholds the same old political ideals as in Mao's times. But hughe changes are going on beneath this blanket and i think it will be the same with the relations between China and Taiwan.
It would be wrong to block that out of colonial, hegemonial sentiments by the USA. They should stay there as long as the Taiwanese still wnat their protection (and with "the taiwanese" i mean the people and not some military hunta), but if the day should ever come when a majority of taiwanese should want the reunification, i hope the USA will not oppose it just because it would lose a few military bases.

Interesting post TrangleC!

I haven't been to China but I have friends who have visited and know Chinese business people who are living and working in Australia. What you have said is exactly what they tell me which makes me feel a lot easier about the future.

That should not stop sensible contingency planning as things can change very quickly and unexpectedly.

Cheers

 

[bonita.h]

Actually i'm rather astonished to read a chinese write that such a conflict is likely. I lived in China for one year and have a lot of friends there and i never heard anybody say anything like that. In my experience all the people i talked to had no hostile attitude towards Taiwan or the USA, nor did they think there would ever be a military conflict like this. It was just in 2003 when i was there and due to the Iraq invasion the "anti-american" sentiments were at a peak in Europe at that time and so the contrast compared to China became very obvious and striking to me. It seems as if China might be one of the last places outside the USA where a majority of people still have this romantic and naive picture of the USA as the homeland of the legendary american dream and land of the free and so on. They see the USA as a role model and rather want to send their children there to study instead of making war with it. Even in the official state media i never witnessed any anti american attitude or comments.

Since then this agressive anti chinese "it's only a matter of time till we are at war with them"-attitude that seems to be all over the USA, seems very ridiculous and primitive to me, i must say.

I think the chinese know very well that they are "winning the peace" and so are not interested in war at all.
With all the rapid economical and even political progress China is making, i think it might even be that the taiwanese choose to re-join China freely one day, to be part of this success.
After all the "made in Taiwan" sticker isn't as common on products found in western supermarkets and electronic stores anymore as it was 10 years ago. Did you ever notice that?

That either means that Taiwan isn't selling as much stuff to us anymore because (mainland) Chinatook over market shares from them, or it means that taiwanese companies are producing cheaper on the mainland.
That is actually the case, as far as i have learned from TV reports and from what my chinese friends told me. It seems as if the unification is already on it's way from a economical point of view.
Maybe we have to get used to the idea that that might just be typical and the chinese way. I mean that the economy and businessmen do what politicians aren't doing. After all it is the same with China's opening. China isn't the same anymore as it was 20 years ago and that although it's still officially controlled by the same political party that officially still upholds the same old political ideals as in Mao's times. But hughe changes are going on beneath this blanket and i think it will be the same with the relations between China and Taiwan.
It would be wrong to block that out of colonial, hegemonial sentiments by the USA. They should stay there as long as the Taiwanese still wnat their protection (and with "the taiwanese" i mean the people and not some military hunta), but if the day should ever come when a majority of taiwanese should want the reunification, i hope the USA will not oppose it just because it would lose a few military bases.

I feel indeed so happy to read such friendly words to Chinese(I am Chinese).yes, of course China's rapid development is not a threat to other countries,Chinese are mostly hail-fellow to foreigners(you've felt when you live in China or contacting with CHinese in your country as you said,), but it's undeniable that mainstream perspective CHina's neighbouring countries showed in recent years is not so friendly,especially for Japs . I am chinese ,i know what chinese think. China will surely not impose any military threat to the normal Taiwanese and friendly country but the pro-independencers. Force is the last choice in the way to reunification. China's determination to wipe out any barriers that block the country's reunification including the interference with US should never be underestimated although china's military strength still lags much to US and jap at large, and surely still be like that in the upcoming tens of years . You know,Chinese always extremely emphasize the integral of country.also Taiwan benefit much from trading with mainland, let alone mostly taiwanese's parents or grandparents came from chinese mailand due to the civil war, I think , the reunification is just a matter of time and by peaceful way just like Hongkong and Macao.
Ok, back to the topic itself, Aus is much likely to involve in the taiwan strait conflict if it blast and us impose much pressure on aus.although the baliteral relationship is good now. If you have some questions about this , you shoud think carefully about what Aus could get from the defence accord signed with japan,and Jap's PM reiterated it's not aimed at China repeatedly(as an old chinese proverb goes"此地无银三百两") (IMHO)
(sorry for my poor English)
PS:I really appreciate your friendly attitude to China.

 

[Rich]

Triangle while I appreciate your input about how the Chinese people want peace and their views about America. I feel I should point out that Chinese policy isn't controlled by "the people" nor are the ones who make that policy answerable to the people.

Such decisions, like the invasion of Taiwan, would be made by the Politburo standing committee of the Chinese communist party.

That's 9 men that hold 100% of the power in China, a country of 1.4 billion people. And they aint to worried about Polls because there aint none in China. Here's what happened the last time the average Chinese tried to get a say in their future. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/documents/index.html#12-29

 

[bonita.h]

Triangle while I appreciate your input about how the Chinese people want peace and their views about America. I feel I should point out that Chinese policy isn't controlled by "the people" nor are the ones who make that policy answerable to the people.

Such decisions, like the invasion of Taiwan, would be made by the Politburo standing committee of the Chinese communist party.

That's 9 men that hold 100% of the power in China, a country of 1.4 billion people. And they aint to worried about Polls because there aint none in China. Here's what happened the last time the average Chinese tried to get a say in their future. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/documents/index.html#12-29

Frankly speaking , China lacks democracy compared to many countries, mainstream public opinion is in the palm of CPC. Such as the construction of Three Gorges Dam,whick still remains many doubts .(actually,The genuine democracy does't exist ,even if the so-called human right guarder Uncle Sam), but ,On the issue of Taiwan,if you contact with the average chinese people,you will feel very astonished about how consentaneous the views on taiwan are. it is definitely not controlled by the government, no chinese,even the chinese of Hongkong could tolerate Taiwan's formal independence .