The Kurdish Advantage

[clausewitz]

There has been some talk in the international news about Iranian efforts to ally with Kurdish citizens in northern Iraq and Syria.

Let's assume that Western forces make a move towards either Iran and Syria, and conflict breaks out through the region. Would Iran be able to use the Kurds to disrupt supply chains within souther Turkey?

I don't think that there is enough cohesive control to effectively direct missions into Turkish territory - but having ethnic allies could be important if Iran wanted to advance West (assuming they have the cloud of Russian protection).

Thoughts?

[STURM]

All the countries that have Kurdish populations - Syria, Iran, Iraq and Turkey - have at various times attempted to win the Kurds over or to seek some kind of political accomodation with them. The Kurds, having at various times been burnt and treated harshly by all these countries, will not be so quick to take sides against another country and be used as pawns. In the past, Israel also provided some aid to the Kurds in Iraq.

[Twain]

Originally Posted by clausewitz

There has been some talk in the international news about Iranian efforts to ally with Kurdish citizens in northern Iraq and Syria.

Let's assume that Western forces make a move towards either Iran and Syria, and conflict breaks out through the region. Would Iran be able to use the Kurds to disrupt supply chains within souther Turkey?

I don't think that there is enough cohesive control to effectively direct missions into Turkish territory - but having ethnic allies could be important if Iran wanted to advance West (assuming they have the cloud of Russian protection).

Thoughts?

Iraqi Kurds are currently signing oil development deals with western oil companies so it is highly unlikely that they would jeopardize that by siding with Iran. If anything, there will be a push for another Kurdish autonomous region in Syria.

[My2Cents]

Originally Posted by Twain

Iraqi Kurds are currently signing oil development deals with western oil companies so it is highly unlikely that they would jeopardize that by siding with Iran. If anything, there will be a push for another Kurdish autonomous region in Syria.

Turkey has threatened to invade Syria if the Kurds establish an autonomous region there. The same threat to the Iraqi Kurds is likely one of the main reasons the Kurds have not broken with the Iraqi central government.

[Twain]

Originally Posted by My2Cents

Turkey has threatened to invade Syria if the Kurds establish an autonomous region there. The same threat to the Iraqi Kurds is likely one of the main reasons the Kurds have not broken with the Iraqi central government.

Officially the Kurdish region in Iraq is still part of Iraq, but only officially. Among other things, they are negotiating their own oil development contracts outside of any Iraqi government control or influence.

No doubt Turkey sees an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria as a threat but I also think this is a goal of the Kurds. An autonomous region is Syria would put two of the 4 pieces of a greater Kurdistan in place. I doubt that Turkey would launch a full scale invasion so much as they would raid into Syria and send in airstrikes. The whole Syrian mess is going to cause Turkey headaches for years. They may very well not get the outcome they are hoping for.