critical factors (future)

ranComdr

New Member
Hi

Always interested in tactics. I'm enquring after critical factors in conflict which effect the future.

For instance will Drones become a main weapon? Obviously they can never have the same payload for price yet, you all have to do is build another one.

Also will warships become the thing of the past? Compact Air Craft Carriers pose more of a threat in my mind.

Also stuff like how, I've looked up a US Cruiser, stuffed full of tomahawk missiles. Now isn't the case that if the armoury is hit, the ship would be ripped to streads?

thanks
 

Rythm

New Member
I certainly think UAVs will replace the classic aircraft rather soon for strikemissions, recce, SIGINT and maritime patrolmissions. IMHO i think the F-22 represents the height of evolution for these specific purposes. But the future will see a lot more UAVs produced for these kind of missions. Mainly for three reasons:

a) Generally a UAV is cheaper and easier to develop
b) A loss of a fighter aircraft and its pilot is a huge political loss under most circumstances wich also brings forward the need for CSAR abilities. The loss of a UAV is much more accaptable.
c) Supreme loiteringtime. A pilot just has to get a bit of shut-eye every now and then, whilst the UAV crew simply can be switched mid-mission.

However, for airsuperiority and CAS i think, even if technological possible, most countries will try to keep manned aircraft and helos for the next 20 years.

Warships will stay. As escorts, ASW, shorebombardment, force projection and littoral warfare. Amongst other things.

Concerning tomahawks, i´ll pass that one along to the navy guys. Kato can certainly answer that one better than me.
 

Ths

Banned Member
Weasel has a point:

The general forces seem to have developed to a fine point.

Range for all weapons are very much greater, than they were during the cold war. Either that or their precision is vastly increased - anyway firepower is increased.
But, and that is worth noting: The relative composition of forces is pretty much the same. In the period up to WW2 violent changes in the composition of forces took place: Tanks, aircraft and carriers. This is not the case today.

If we have critical factors:
I concur networking - real time - has definately redefined air defence and naval control of shipping. I'm a bit more reserved on the land warfare side.
Secondly PGM's. I'm one of those that believe that UAV's are oversold.
With new planes with higher cruise speeds and ground configurational changes: i.e. If you are an interceptor or an attack plane depends on the pilot, what you hang under the plane and the data upload. I'm not a great beliver in a change in role once airborne - cuts to much into speed and range.
But with the state of PGM you can let the bomb or missile fly alone during the dangereous bit, while preserving the expensive parts of the plane.

If You look at the gulf wars: These 2 factors were largely responsible for the total and utter defeat of a rather well equipped and trained military force.
 

nornavy

New Member
Verified Defense Pro
What becomes the critical factor in the future, depends on the conflict of the future.

Todays conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, shows that technological superiority isn't always the critical element. The best weapon against such forces is still the infantryman. With the enormous costs of high tech hardware, numbers decrease, and with it the ability to sustain a operation over time or the ability to take casualities.

Networking will provide commanders with more and more information. Information overload will be a major problem to be solved.
People will always be the key factor in any conflict, so I think manned platforms will be around for a long time.

Also, as NATO / US becomes more and more high tech, other parties will adapt assymetrical responses.

What I think will happen, is like weasel says, a major doctrinal change in the west to best adapt new technology to new threats.
 
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