Will Russia ever regain it's Military might?

[Francis]

I have been researching about the Russian Armed Forces and all i have seen is bad news. Will Russia ever regain its power and respect?

So can anyone please answer the question?

Edit: Please avoid these back to back posts. Show a little patience, to give your fellow posters time to respond. /GD

 

[dioditto]

I have been researching about the Russian Armed Forces and all i have seen is bad news. Will russian ever regain its power and respect?

Perhaps, largely depends on how well it breaks out of its economic and military isolation. It just might now because it joins WTO (GATT) this year.

 

[Francis]

can you explain to me what is WTO?

 

[Cailet]

can you explain to me what is WTO?

World Trade Organisation. Basically it tries to spread *cough* Free Trade about the globe.

(I'll reserve comment though as it's neither defence-related nor entirely polite).

 

[Big-E]

I have been researching about the Russian Armed Forces and all i have seen is bad news. Will Russia ever regain its power and respect?

So can anyone please answer the question?

Edit: Please avoid these back to back posts. Show a little patience, to give your fellow posters time to respond. /GD

Russia has plans to start ramping up it's defense spending soon. But let me reitterate that defense spending on obsolete equipment doesn't mean you will get power and respect. As Aussie Digger likes to point out just having the equipment doesn't make you a credable fighting force. The corrupt conscription process of the Russian Federation with it's tactics of abuse destroys moral, increases suicide rates and makes desertion a probable conclusion. The obsolete Soviet tactics still in use today have not had a major overhall in almost 60 years. If you look at the 1st and 2nd Chechen wars you will see the first time they get slaughtered and then realizing their current doctrine is crap, they have to revert to the only thing that ever worked... WWII strategies.

I'm starting to ramble but let me address the soldiers themselves. Russian servicemen don't make SQUAT. They don't take care of them. Whatever money armed forces do get goes into trying to maintain ancient weapon systems and buying new ones that they can't afford. If they want to make Russia a decent fighting force they have to address the people rather then letting them die of starvation in Siberia.

 

[rattmuff]

I have been researching about the Russian Armed Forces and all i have seen is bad news. Will Russia ever regain its power and respect?

So can anyone please answer the question?

Edit: Please avoid these back to back posts. Show a little patience, to give your fellow posters time to respond. /GD

Will Russia ever regain its power and respect?
No is my conclusion after I red some open publications from FOI(Swedish Defence Research Agency). The documents I took a close look on are the following Russian Military Capabilities In A Ten Year Perspective, Swedish And Russian Military Capabilities - Comparison 1985, 1995 and 2005, The Russian Military Technique Resource Base - Russian Research, Critical Technolgies And Weapon Systems, Russian Military Capabilities In A Ten Year Perspective - A Renewed Appraisal 2002, Russian Military Capabilities In A Ten Year Perspective - Problems And Trends and Russian Military Reform: A Failed Exercise in Defence Decision Making.

The report that gave the biggest respons(or in an other word, frightened) in the swedish goverment and media was Russian Military Capabilities In A Ten Year Perspective - Problems And Trends (Link)

Big-E's summarise is pretty good.

 

[merocaine]

If you looked at Russia post 91 and under Yeltsin, and compared it with today there a big difference.

Instead of losing a war in Chethyna, they've won one. They've rebuilt there economy, the Kremlin has reaserted its infulance over the Oligarchs.
They've become immune to western pressure, you can't push Putin around where as Yeltsin was a patsy.
They have rebuilt there power in central asia.
They have used there great oil and gas reserves to build strong links with western europe. There Economy has grown by 6.4% annually since 98'

As for an Army, they face no iminent threats from the west and have good relations with there biggest neighbours, India, China, Iran. Why would they spend more than they need on defence? There the 2nd biggest weapons exporters in the world, which has kept there defence industry alive, so when they do decide to reinvest in there armed forces they should have a head start.
Anyway you only need a cutting edge military if your bent on global reach, which russia doesent seem to be.

 

[Big-E]

If you looked at Russia post 91 and under Yeltsin, and compared it with today there a big difference.

I like to use the Reagan analogy of, are you better off now than you were then. Looking at the current state of the Russian military I think it is obvious... where did I put that time machine? :alian2

 

[Ths]

For starters: A country as huge as Russia will always be a potential security risk. So to exclude the possibility of Russia ever gaining military might again is not an intelligent thing to do.

Having said that there are some very big difficulties.

The economy might grow rapidly; but a part of it is on registration of bartering of consumer goods: If you build a hen-house for a farmer and is paid in kind, that is not registered in GDP; but if you issue a bill and by your pork in the supermarket the economy has apparently grown - it has and it hasn't.
A far more dangereous factor is the lack of diversity in their foreign trade. Depending on oilprices half of the Russian export is oil and gas. We will have to live with highish oil prices untill Russia isn't in a position to use nuclear weapons. As Russia has lost so much militarily the last resort nuclear option has moved ahead on the list of options - simply because the other options aren't there any more.
The high dependency on oil means that foreign trade is going to be as volatile as oilprices. Furthermore their best immediate costoumers in Europe are doing their best to reduce the dependence on oil. The oil-crisis in the 1970'ies was a lesson. This means that the possibility of using oil as a weapon is very much reduced.

Strategically speaking:
After the cold war Nato (and it is still a force very much to be reckoned with) gained strategic depth, whereas the commensurate Russian loss of same doesn't matter very much - there is still a very long way to Moscow walking in skirmish order.
The other significant loss is the loss of ports. The Baltic and Black Sea Fleets still have their home ports (well sort of); but it will be fraught with difficulty to get out of them. So to all intends and purposes half the Russian Fleet is lost on that account alone.
The White Sea Fleet lives (if you can call it that) with the US Navy's subs at its very doorstep. The situation of the Pacific fleet is unclear to me, but it has always been the worst placed fleet - and given Russia nothing but disaster. It is a long way from the industrial centers and the services of the big yards and it is a long way from the areas where they might be used.

As Big E points out: Russia has lost a generation of commanders. For every year that passes those that are supposed to train the soldiers are either getting older or without training themselves.
Another factor to consider is the narrowness of the training of the Soviet/Russian army: A unit could only do one job, not only tactically; but in a squad only one man could drive the APC and so on...
This means that the basic structure of the Russian army is without tactical and operational flexibility: If a new situation develops, you have to train a unit to deal with it from scratch. It didn't matter during the cold war as the basic scenario was unchanged for 45 years.
Another thing: The massive internal control system of the communist party inside the army is gone, so it remains to be seen if the traditional military controls are sufficient to keep discipline.

And I haven't even adressed the problem of the increasing obsolescence of their equipment....

 

[dioditto]

I wouldn't count Russia out just yet. It may have obsolete coventional army with obsolete equipments and training, but this is largely due to Russia having to rebuild its post cold-war economy. From what I have gather, I think Russia is and have achieved strategic parity with United States, and all 5 members of UNSC. Reason being that it still have the most formidable nuclear arsenals, both numerically, and technologically. Other strategic weapons are still readily and steadily acquired and developed by them. (Tupolev Tu-160s, Next Generation SSBNs)

Its economy is steadily growing, and since there is no dispute with its neighbours, conventional warfare items are removed from the budget list to concentrate on the strategic offensive weapons as major deterrents - which is wise in my opinion. Until its economy allows, then it will re-develop its tactical capabilities. (conventional armies)

Right now, it is simply too "poor" to field both a capable conventional army, and a strategic force on parity with other major powers. And it choose later.

 

[Big-E]

Its economy is steadily growing, and since there is no dispute with its neighbours, conventional warfare items are removed from the budget list to concentrate on the strategic offensive weapons as major deterrents - which is wise in my opinion. Until its economy allows, then it will re-develop its tactical capabilities. (conventional armies)

Right now, it is simply too "poor" to field both a capable conventional army, and a strategic force on parity with other major powers. And it choose later.

That's about right except they are fiedling the guise of a conventional force and spending a fair amount to keep up airs. They would do better to keep the nukes, scrap the conventional and start from scratch based on western models.

 

[USNavySEAL3310]

I think their politics and internal economic problems will prevent them from becoming a strong military force anytime soon. Once that is taken care of, then they can begin worrying about their military budget.

My best guess is we won't see any serious improvement in the Russian military for at least a decade, other than their missile program. Tank and aircraft development will remain at a standstill, as well as soldier training.

 

[Francis]

i have heard that Russia is trying to create a new military doctrine which could be succesful but would that really help and what time in this century will they recover? and is the T-90 , TOS-1 , BTR-T and the BMP-T obsolete?

 

[Ths]

A few points:

"I think their politics and internal economic problems will prevent them from becoming a strong military force anytime soon. Once that is taken care of, then they can begin worrying about their military budget."

Which is like saying: "Once I've beat my heavily metastaziesed cancer I'll take up college football again."

I'm not counting Russia out. Well - if you pardon the tasteless joke: Q: "How do You save a communist from drowning?" A: "Lift your foot from his neck!"
The point being: The foot isn't being lifted.

Big E has a point: Updated old equipment can never be newly developed equipment. The motive for this policy is clear enough to me. If they disbanded much quicker than they do now, they would leave a very large group of organised "veterans" ticked off and without a job.

 

[Big-E]

Big E has a point: Updated old equipment can never be newly developed equipment. The motive for this policy is clear enough to me. If they disbanded much quicker than they do now, they would leave a very large group of organised "veterans" ticked off and without a job.

I think the veterans are so engrossed in the instutions they need to be purged to get the kind of military that is needed. If they can prove they can adapt to a new way of doing things then they should stay.

 

[Ths]

Big E: That is our best guarantee that they won't go to war. These parasites have led a life in relative comfort and they are not about to risk anything.
As Gf-0012 say stupidity can explain much. I say: Do not underestimate the a military systems ability to do the most inefficient. Let's use it!

 

[Grand Danois]

A few points:

"I think their politics and internal economic problems will prevent them from becoming a strong military force anytime soon. Once that is taken care of, then they can begin worrying about their military budget."

Which is like saying: "Once I've beat my heavily metastaziesed cancer I'll take up college football again."

I'm not counting Russia out. Well - if you pardon the tasteless joke: Q: "How do You save a communist from drowning?" A: "Lift your foot from his neck!"
The point being: The foot isn't being lifted.

The crude metaphors aside, I'd have to disagree. The state of affairs in Russia is of their own making. Very little boot is applied, and in eg the energy sector the it is somewhat the other way around. That being said, there are a few conservatives in the West that advocate 'finishing the job' in a geopolitical sense.

rattmuff suplied a link for a Swedish asessment. I have read a couple of those OSINT reports (but not this one I think) and they clearly say that the Russians would benefit a lot from doing some more comprehensive reforms of their military - the army in particular. When they get this completed, they have a far better basis for expansion as they will get far more value for money, than by 'just' pouring more money into the existing establishment.

 

[merocaine]

As Russia doesent face any external threats now or in the foreseeable future, competing with the west militarially is something they dont have to worry about. Who is going to mess with them anyway.
Look at there weapons sales, this tells its own story, who would have thought after the cold war that they would still be competeing with the US and the west.
To me its quite amazing they are still standing after 70 years of commi mismanagement.

A far more dangereous factor is the lack of diversity in their foreign trade. Depending on oilprices half of the Russian export is oil and gas. We will have to live with highish oil prices untill Russia isn't in a position to use nuclear weapons.

remember oil and gas are much more than ways of generating forigen cash, they are weapons in there own right.
One thing about Russia, its never as weak as it looks, or as strong.

 

[RubiconNZ]

As Russia doesent face any external threats now or in the foreseeable future, competing with the west militarially is something they dont have to worry about. Who is going to mess with them anyway.
Look at there weapons sales, this tells its own story, who would have thought after the cold war that they would still be competeing with the US and the west.
To me its quite amazing they are still standing after 70 years of commi mismanagement. .

While I agree, their rather lack of regard on who they sell to does influence their sales somewhat.

remember oil and gas are much more than ways of generating forigen cash, they are weapons in there own right.
One thing about Russia, its never as weak as it looks, or as strong.

Well put.

 

[merocaine]

While I agree, their rather lack of regard on who they sell to does influence their sales somewhat.

ehem they are a little unscrupulous alright!