Why Iran should be worried!

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Areudoubled

New Member
Seems Israel has some plans to take out Iran's nuke program, and for some reason the plan's been "leaked"


Uzi Mahnaimi, New York and Sarah Baxter, Washington
ISRAEL has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.

Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources.

The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.

Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels” into the targets. “Mini-nukes” would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.

“As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,” said one of the sources.

The plans, disclosed to The Sunday Times last week, have been prompted in part by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad’s assessment that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons within two years.

Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.

Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack.

Some analysts warned that Iranian retaliation for such a strike could range from disruption of oil supplies to the West to terrorist attacks against Jewish targets around the world.

Israel has identified three prime targets south of Tehran which are believed to be involved in Iran’s nuclear programme:

# Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges are being installed for uranium enrichment

# A uranium conversion facility near Isfahan where, according to a statement by an Iranian vice-president last week, 250 tons of gas for the enrichment process have been stored in tunnels

# A heavy water reactor at Arak, which may in future produce enough plutonium for a bomb

Israeli officials believe that destroying all three sites would delay Iran’s nuclear programme indefinitely and prevent them from having to live in fear of a “second Holocaust”.

The Israeli government has warned repeatedly that it will never allow nuclear weapons to be made in Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has declared that “Israel must be wiped off the map”.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2535310,00.html
 
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Khairul Alam

New Member
Now that Iran has the very latest Russian Tor-M1 SAMs, it wont be easy for Israel to mount air strikes.Moreover, the US wont be giving Israel the green light for such actions, as that will make their task even harder in Iraq. The Iraqi Shiites will take out their anger on the the US soldiers, and Iran will surely declare war and send their forces into Iraq for a showdown. The US wont be ready until they are out of the Iraqi quagmire.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Sounds a bit like a doomsday fantasy. The isrealies are more than capible of SEAD missions against a sophisticated enemy with a much tighter SAM umbrella than tehran has. And i doubt that iran would declare war on the US. The quote did state that this option would only be used if there was no U.S. support so a green light may not be needed. The isrealies pulled off something similar with an Iraqi reactor in 82' i think and there was no massive clash of iraqi and israeli divisions over the trans jordan. To think that Iran would "invade" iraq in retaliation is not realistic. Think of the NATO reaction. I'm sure they could deal with loosing a reactor and some inrichment facilities without going into a conflict of that magnitude.
 

merocaine

New Member
Hummm the good old Sunday Times, I once read an Article about plastics remote control Tanks fitted with jet packs which would be ready for deployment in 2010.....
 

Simon9

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Now that Iran has the very latest Russian Tor-M1 SAMs, it wont be easy for Israel to mount air strikes.Moreover, the US wont be giving Israel the green light for such actions, as that will make their task even harder in Iraq. The Iraqi Shiites will take out their anger on the the US soldiers, and Iran will surely declare war and send their forces into Iraq for a showdown. The US wont be ready until they are out of the Iraqi quagmire.
I don't know... The Tors supposedly only have a range of about 20,000ft, so anything flying much above that should be safe from them. Plus, there are only 30-odd of them and you can bet as soon as they switch their radars on they will deluged in anti-radiation missiles. Maybe they will have a chance of shooting down the nuclear bunker-busters on the way down if they're lucky.

But if they've bought any S-300s to use in combination, then things could get interesting...
 

Rich

Member
First off lets dissect this "leak" coming from the Israelis
ISRAEL has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.
Big deal. They probably have 100 separate plans to blow up dozens of countries. And so do we. Thats what "planners" do. They plan.

Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources.
Every country that's ever owned nukes has had its forces practice using them. That the Israelis are doing so is nothing short of totally unremarkable.
The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.
Brit newspapers love a flourish dont they?

Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels” into the targets. “Mini-nukes” would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.
We all know this is lunacy.

“As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,” said one of the sources.
As is this. The Iranian WMD program is both huge and dispersed. Some of it is beyond the range of Israelis F-16s and-15s. And to destroy it all would take how many nukes? Dozens I bet!

The rest of this is ? If the Israelis were really about to launch such an attack do you really think there would be a leak about it beforehand? Of course there wouldn't! So there are two dynamics at work here. #1 is a newspaper that likes selling newspapers. #2 is an Israeli Government that wants to keep world opinion on Iran and its nuke program. And to do so it would provide a top secret "leak" to a western newspaper.

The Times should get back to the "Princess Di was murdered" stories.
 

ThunderBolt

New Member
lol nice muncy news!

Okay here is the deal. Just like the media is putting spicy stories about Iran making nukes, they are doing the same about Israel neutralizing the Iranian nuclear plants. I agree with Rich's theory about the "leak". More over, I do not agree with Ozzy 100%.

Sounds a bit like a doomsday fantasy. The isrealies are more than capible of SEAD missions against a sophisticated enemy with a much tighter SAM umbrella than tehran has. And i doubt that iran would declare war on the US. The quote did state that this option would only be used if there was no U.S. support so a green light may not be needed. The isrealies pulled off something similar with an Iraqi reactor in 82' i think and there was no massive clash of iraqi and israeli divisions over the trans jordan. To think that Iran would "invade" iraq in retaliation is not realistic. Think of the NATO reaction. I'm sure they could deal with loosing a reactor and some inrichment facilities without going into a conflict of that magnitude.


Please do remember that if you are still rating IAF on their perfect strike back 25 years ago with their F16's and F15's, then you are really dreaming. Sure back in 82' these were good planes, but now even with upgrades it would definitely be a bit of a hassle to break the defensive perimeters of Tehranian SAM's, especially because when the Russians perfected these and when these SAM's were in production they were worked with Mig29K's and SU30MK and F16D or F15E are a no match for these SU's. Currently IAF is running a lot of new blood and you have seen how this new blood performed in there failed strike to retrieve their men from Palestine.

Any ways I am not trying to be a badAss or anything, but looking at the current situation, if such a strike was to be carried out, the Iranian’s would have their SCUD’s in the air by the time IAF enters Iran, and no matter how much hard it is to believe, yes Iran would probably send their troops either down in Iraq or Israel even just to get them slaughtered. And the sectarian violence would see an amazing surge in attacks in Iraq and Palestine. It would probably look like a Middle East world war as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Palestine are already cooking hot magma. The reason for Iran doing all this would be because they absolutely hate the Israel and the Tehranian balloon of hate just needs a small poking before it bursts.

My say, Israel is not attacking anyone anytime soon. And I am sorry if I offended anyone.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Okay here is the deal. Just like the media is putting spicy stories about Iran making nukes, they are doing the same about Israel neutralizing the Iranian nuclear plants. I agree with Rich's theory about the "leak". More over, I do not agree with Ozzy 100%.



Please do remember that if you are still rating IAF on their perfect strike back 25 years ago with their F16's and F15's, then you are really dreaming. Sure back in 82' these were good planes, but now even with upgrades it would definitely be a bit of a hassle to break the defensive perimeters of Tehranian SAM's, especially because when the Russians perfected these and when these SAM's were in production they were worked with Mig29K's and SU30MK and F16D or F15E are a no match for these SU's. Currently IAF is running a lot of new blood and you have seen how this new blood performed in there failed strike to retrieve their men from Palestine.

Any ways I am not trying to be a badAss or anything, but looking at the current situation, if such a strike was to be carried out, the Iranian’s would have their SCUD’s in the air by the time IAF enters Iran, and no matter how much hard it is to believe, yes Iran would probably send their troops either down in Iraq or Israel even just to get them slaughtered. And the sectarian violence would see an amazing surge in attacks in Iraq and Palestine. It would probably look like a Middle East world war as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Palestine are already cooking hot magma. The reason for Iran doing all this would be because they absolutely hate the Israel and the Tehranian balloon of hate just needs a small poking before it bursts.

My say, Israel is not attacking anyone anytime soon. And I am sorry if I offended anyone.
Mate i quoted 82 because the diplomatic situation between Isreal and Iraq was verry similar to the iranian situation. Similar action was taken then and there was no "bloodbath". Sending ground forces into Iraq??? Are they crazy??? That is a war with NATO!!!!! Not just Saddam Hussien which they almost lost. Their SCUD's really arnt a threat unless their carring NBC, and if they are then Theran is just going to be one big hole in the ground. Are you telling me that F15I's and E's are no match for an SU30??? And the IAF couldn't deal with a SAM system with such a low cealing?

Your right we probably would se a surge in sectarian violance in the mid east, but would than be worse that an iran with dozens of nukes and decent delivery systems, when that hate bubble bursts????
 

eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
With Iran going into Iraq is not a scenario that they want a part of, American Naval forces alone would practically destroy them. Are we assuming that Israel doesn`t have cruise missles or intermediate rockets that are capable of reaching out and ringing Irans bell, there is a good chance that they have the technology and weapons so that they do not have to worry about Irans SAM belts. Hmm, makes you wonder why the US wants to place additional ground forces in Iraq, if we have additional naval battle groups to start entering the Persian Gulf then maybe we will have cause for concern.
 

Khairul Alam

New Member
Mate i quoted 82 because the diplomatic situation between Isreal and Iraq was verry similar to the iranian situation. Similar action was taken then and there was no "bloodbath". Sending ground forces into Iraq??? Are they crazy??? That is a war with NATO!!!!! Not just Saddam Hussien which they almost lost. Their SCUD's really arnt a threat unless their carring NBC, and if they are then Theran is just going to be one big hole in the ground. Are you telling me that F15I's and E's are no match for an SU30??? And the IAF couldn't deal with a SAM system with such a low cealing?

Your right we probably would se a surge in sectarian violance in the mid east, but would than be worse that an iran with dozens of nukes and decent delivery systems, when that hate bubble bursts????
The situation back in 1982 was very different. Iraq at that time was already fighting the Iranians, and Saddam Hussein was sensible enough not to open up another front to the East with a more powerful adversary, one armed with nukes. Thats why there were no retaliation. This time the Iranians are expecting just such an attack on their nuclear installations and they might have prepared for that.
 

tomahawk6

New Member
The US cannot allow the present situation in the region to continue. We have ignored Iran's support of both the sunni and shia insurgencies. The recent capture of two IRG officers in Baghdad has provided a treasure trove of intelligence to US forces. For Iraq to progress as a democracy the radical pro-Iranian militias have to be destroyed. Iranian military support has to be stopped. An Iran with nuclear weapons destabilizes the entire region. I dont see where the US has much choice but to deliver a beating to the IRG, Iran's missile/air force, destroying their Navy as we strike their nuclear facilities,command/control and oil infrastructure. What can Iran do that they are not already doing in Iraq ? Invade Iraq ? If we play our cards right we might get regime change by the Iranians themselves.
 

ThunderBolt

New Member
Ozzy man, the situation back in 82' wasn't even close to what it is right now. And when i said that SU30MK is better than F15I's, and if you don't believe that than you really need to get your facts right. OKay here is the deal F18 with upgrades are way way better planes than F15's infact F18 without any upgrades are better than F15's, F15's are huge planes and the technology of several decades old.

Here is the deal, back in 2005 when USAF with F15,16 went to India to train with their planes Indians beat their ass's by 9 to 1 kills, that is pretty ambaracing huh?, and guess what buddy what they were using Mig29's, and let me tell you this, i am not a favorite of Russian technology, but SU30's are 10X better than Migs. If you still don't believe me just search it up. Russians weren't the world power for no reason!, they know what they are doing. Although recently upgraded versions of F18 are quite a bit better than SU30MK's, but thats why Russians are making SU37's. And Israel doesn't any hornets.

And back in 82 Iraq wasn't in position to send ground troops into Israel because they would have had to go through Iran and what not. And what i think Kahirul means or atleast what i meant by iran sending forces down to iraq was not actually millitary personals, all they would have to do is support the current insugents alot more to have the same affect.
 

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Ozzy man, the situation back in 82' wasn't even close to what it is right now. And when i said that SU30MK is better than F15I's, and if you don't believe that than you really need to get your facts right. OKay here is the deal F18 with upgrades are way way better planes than F15's infact F18 without any upgrades are better than F15's, F15's are huge planes and the technology of several decades old.

Here is the deal, back in 2005 when USAF with F15,16 went to India to train with their planes Indians beat their ass's by 9 to 1 kills, that is pretty ambaracing huh?, and guess what buddy what they were using Mig29's, and let me tell you this, i am not a favorite of Russian technology, but SU30's are 10X better than Migs. If you still don't believe me just search it up. Russians weren't the world power for no reason!, they know what they are doing. Although recently upgraded versions of F18 are quite a bit better than SU30MK's, but thats why Russians are making SU37's. And Israel doesn't any hornets.

And back in 82 Iraq wasn't in position to send ground troops into Israel because they would have had to go through Iran and what not. And what i think Kahirul means or atleast what i meant by iran sending forces down to iraq was not actually millitary personals, all they would have to do is support the current insugents alot more to have the same affect.

Mate, dong get offended if i'm skeptical. The indians got 9 to 1 kills on F15's/16's? Were they flying independantly or did they achieve that against the E3 F15 AMRAAM combination with MiG 29m's? Somehow i dont think so with AA 10's or even AA12's. Give us a link.

Dude the F15 is still one badass of an aircraft. Sure SU 30mk's might be a better aircraft as far as stats are concerned, or on a platform to platform comparison. But the last time a platform vs platform encouter was decisive was korea. The integrated sysem is whats important. That means AWACS Fighter Missile. And the Isrealies have one tight intergrated system. Give the Iranias 100 SU 30mk's and iill still back the isreali's.

The IAF would have no problem dealing with a SAM system with a cealing of 20,000 ft, and the Iranian Air Force is not going to be a problem. So they are quite capabile of sucsessfully launching such an operation the only thing to wonder about is the consequences. Iran has to march through iraq or syria to directly threaten isreal, and they would have to contend with all the U.S. forces in the region, not to mention the U.S. reaction. So would they invade Iraq? No way there not that stupid. So they would support the insurgancy (which the're allready doing anyway to some extent) but they couldn't do it directly or they would cop the full force of U.S. airpower. So funding and arms. Ok that makes that situation worse but the Iraqi's hate Iran, so there would't be much poular support. So realistically the worst thing that is likely to happen would be a rise in sectarian violance. So really the situation between 82 and now isn't that different. the mission is still verry achievable, the reaction is not likely to be major due to irans situation or the situation of the region. Whats worse, a pissed of iran with no nukes, or a pissed of iran with nukes and decent delivery systems???
 

eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Ozzy man, the situation back in 82' wasn't even close to what it is right now. And when i said that SU30MK is better than F15I's, and if you don't believe that than you really need to get your facts right. OKay here is the deal F18 with upgrades are way way better planes than F15's infact F18 without any upgrades are better than F15's, F15's are huge planes and the technology of several decades old.

Here is the deal, back in 2005 when USAF with F15,16 went to India to train with their planes Indians beat their ass's by 9 to 1 kills, that is pretty ambaracing huh?, and guess what buddy what they were using Mig29's, and let me tell you this, i am not a favorite of Russian technology, but SU30's are 10X better than Migs. If you still don't believe me just search it up. Russians weren't the world power for no reason!, they know what they are doing. Although recently upgraded versions of F18 are quite a bit better than SU30MK's, but thats why Russians are making SU37's. And Israel doesn't any hornets.

And back in 82 Iraq wasn't in position to send ground troops into Israel because they would have had to go through Iran and what not. And what i think Kahirul means or atleast what i meant by iran sending forces down to iraq was not actually millitary personals, all they would have to do is support the current insugents alot more to have the same affect.
BULL BUTTER - India beat the USAF with F-15s huh - I saw that article also, do not believe everything you read, the USAF is really good at telling the Pentegon that their planes are outdated so that they can get new ones, this happened right around the time frame that they were trying to justify getting more of the F-22`s, Congress wants to keep cutting back on the orders. Yes the Mig 29 is a good fighter but so is the F-15`s with the latest updates. When did Israel ever ask for F-18`s, if they want them I do not see any reason why we would not sell them. How many air combat kills does the F-15 have, over 60 with Israel, over 30 with the US, and Saudi Arabia even has 4. The only combat kills from the SU30 is two and this is ironic, they killed to Mig29s. Do not sell the F15s too short,they still have a nasty bite.
How many SU37`s does Russia have?
 

ThunderBolt

New Member
BULL BUTTER - India beat the USAF with F-15s huh - I saw that article also, do not believe everything you read, the USAF is really good at telling the Pentegon that their planes are outdated so that they can get new ones, this happened right around the time frame that they were trying to justify getting more of the F-22`s, Congress wants to keep cutting back on the orders. Yes the Mig 29 is a good fighter but so is the F-15`s with the latest updates. When did Israel ever ask for F-18`s, if they want them I do not see any reason why we would not sell them. How many air combat kills does the F-15 have, over 60 with Israel, over 30 with the US, and Saudi Arabia even has 4. The only combat kills from the SU30 is two and this is ironic, they killed to Mig29s. Do not sell the F15s too short,they still have a nasty bite.
How many SU37`s does Russia have?
You know, I wouldn't doubt it if the artical that showed up in more than 4 well known magzines is crap, but you also never know that it might actually be true. You are right F-15 is one of best interceptors ever made but do keep in mind that the planes F-15 shot down didn't even come close to upgraded Mig29's run in most countries man. Sure they shot down Mig 21's and 23 but I really don't remeber any Mig 29 kills. By the way, interesting news SU30 shot down Mig29, I mean I believe it because its a much better plane, whats the story behind that. And after that lets keep the topic to threat to Iran, or someone will be knocking on the door.
 

eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
You know, I wouldn't doubt it if the artical that showed up in more than 4 well known magzines is crap, but you also never know that it might actually be true. You are right F-15 is one of best interceptors ever made but do keep in mind that the planes F-15 shot down didn't even come close to upgraded Mig29's run in most countries man. Sure they shot down Mig 21's and 23 but I really don't remeber any Mig 29 kills. By the way, interesting news SU30 shot down Mig29, I mean I believe it because its a much better plane, whats the story behind that. And after that lets keep the topic to threat to Iran, or someone will be knocking on the door.
Okay here is the number of Mig 29`s claimed by F-15`s, 1st Persian Gulf war 5 Iraqi Mig 29`s, Yugoslav war 4 Mig 29`s by F15`s, 1 by a F16.
I did have my aircraft designations wrong, they were not Su 30`s but Ethiopian SU 27`s that shot down two Eritrean Mig 29`s, the SU`s were flown by Russian pilots and the Mig`s were flown by Ukrainian pilots, this happened in February 1999. In keeping with the topic, Israel has the technology and weapons to get at the designated targets in Iran without even coming close to Irans ADA/SAMs.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Regarding Cope India '04 and F-15 vs Suks and Migs I suggest this as a read ;):

Dissimilar Air Combat Training (DACT)

Excerpt:

By now it should becoming clear why one side or the other in these exercises often has a larger kill:loss ratio than the other. Red air is supposed to die even if there are more capable aircraft on the red side. This is how many of the surprising results occur in large exercises, the threat level is tailored to the training needs of the blue air so they can learn from their mistakes in the debrief.
 
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Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
Regarding Cope India '04 and F-15 vs Suks and Migs I suggest this as a read ;):

Dissimilar Air Combat Training (DACT)

Excerpt:

By now it should becoming clear why one side or the other in these exercises often has a larger kill:loss ratio than the other. Red air is supposed to die even if there are more capable aircraft on the red side. This is how many of the surprising results occur in large exercises, the threat level is tailored to the training needs of the blue air so they can learn from their mistakes in the debrief.
Says it all really.
 

Ths

Banned Member
This "leaked" plan sounds a bit too eloborate to me to work with the required certainty.

Here is what I think has happened:

1 . Something is afoot. Send out a smoke screen.
2. Take a discraded plan, tart it up a bit, remove the sexy part, contact your local reporter, take a few beers of him.

The effect should be:

1. Making clear to the Iranians what they are up against - that the use of nuclear weapons should not be ruled out offhand.
2. Misdirect the Iranians attention: The misdirectionplan is a standard part of every operational plan.
3. Saying to the Russians and Chinese, that something will be done - though not necessarily by the USA. AND telling them to get out of there, so faulty maps won't bring chinese embassy staff in trouble.

How much this ploy is going to achieve remains to be seen; but it is cheap and any positive effects are a bonus.
Any shuffling of assets will be noted - I mean missiles protecting the plant can't protect the palace.
I short they want the Iranians to jump the gun - either that or try to cover several threats with the same weapons.
 
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