what is the best way to protect South Korea from North Korea??

[angeliclight]

The North Korean military has been given orders to hijack South Korean fishing boats near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a South Korean government official told the JoongAng Ilbo on Tuesday.

“I believe that the North Koreans wish to take our citizens hostage and return them in exchange for the four North Koreans, among the 31 who drifted across the maritime border this past February, who defected,” said the government source. “The South Korean government and the military shared this tip last week. We have our guard up as the North Korean leadership has handed down this order.”

The South Korean government has reinforced instructions to fishermen near the NLL to avoid letting their boats drift into the area.

Seoul believes North Korea is determined to get the four back in order to prevent their defections from discrediting the regime. Officials have also said that the defections during the pro-democracy movements in the Middle East and North Africa have caused anguish in Pyongyang.

North Korea asked for Red Cross talks between the South and North in order to discuss the return of the four defectors, but Seoul refused. The South Korean government has repeatedly told the North that the four North Koreans chose to remain in the South on their own.

A day before the request for Red Cross talks, the 27 North Koreans who were repatriated held a press conference and insisted the South Korean government had tried to persuade the group to stay in the South. Pyongyang also reported that the South Korean military had beaten the North Koreans and forced them off their boat.

“There is a chance that the North may kidnap a South Korean in the Kaesong Industrial Complex,” said the government source. The last time a South Korean from the Kaesong Industrial Complex was held captive in the North was in March 2009. Yoo Seong-jin was kept hostage in the North for 136 days for “criticizing the political regime of the republic and corrupting a female worker,” North Korea had said.

Sources have said that the North has stepped up its surveillance of the Kaesong complex since last month.

 

[Shock]

the answer is rather simple. have south korea convince china that it will embargo it's goods until it gets it's pet nation under control.

but this is going into politics rather than defense..

 

[StevoJH]

I wouldn't be so sure. It wasnt so long ago that NK sunk a South Korean warship and bombarded one of their Islands (including military installations) with Artillery.

 

[kazinau]

I wouldn't be so sure. It wasnt so long ago that NK sunk a South Korean warship and bombarded one of their Islands (including military installations) with Artillery.

I think SK should reply to all DPRK's... actions of this kind. Otherwise they will get used to a thought that the South has little will or even unable to wage war against them if there's such a need. Of course, there's always a risk of a full-scale war, but allowing the North to play with far-ranging artillery is more risky than to retaliate sufficiently.

 

[rip]

I think SK should reply to all DPRK's... actions of this kind. Otherwise they will get used to a thought that the South has little will or even unable to wage war against them if there's such a need. Of course, there's always a risk of a full-scale war, but allowing the North to play with far-ranging artillery is more risky than to retaliate sufficiently.

The dictatorship of North Korean, now enthroned as a monarchal family along with its other elites, require outside enemies so as to justify the necessity of their dictatorship and to keep it going. Without powerful external enemies they are in more danger of losing their grip on power. South Korea will never be safe as long as North Korea is a dictatorship. The North Korean dictators must continually stir the pot, raise the stakes, provoke confrontations; it is their means of keeping hold of their power. Certainly good governance isn’t in their skill set. There is nothing productive that South Korea can do but just hold on.

I hope I am wrong but many have tried to use the power reason or the desperate plight of the North Korean people and they have all failed.

 

[SQDLDR]

It starts and ends with China. It is of my own opinion that China is pulling the strings here. It is China that uses its puppet state to provoke these 'incidents'; as to gauge American responses-NOT S Korea's. China is fully aware that the South has no vested interest in any conflicts as Seoul is to close to the 38th. The dictators ruling the North would probably relish the idea of attacking the South, yet it is China that probably is keeping them in check--for the moment. This regional conflict is being exploited to the utmost by China, as part of its Master Plan for Asian/Pacific control. China has taken ALL of Sun-Tzu principles of warfare and used those to its fullest benefit. They realize that the best way to gain control over the Pacific Rim is to slowly chip away at American influence. They are using the Koreas as a pawn in the Chess game they are playing. They also-smartly, I might add-realize that this game will not be finished for many years. Therefore the have the luxury of time. Build their Navy. Build their Air Force. Develop better Anti-Ship missiles. Use their manufacturing base to flood America with cheap products/contaminated products. Spy on America like no other; Business, Gov't., Institutions, Colleges, Banking (why are they buying so much US debt?), Military. They flood our Colleges with their brightest minds, and they they return to China to practice all that we taught them. Etc., etc., etc.
South Koreas future depends upon the strength and resolve of both the USA and Japan. Japan is a thorn in China's side. China realizes that a weakened Russia has no real interest in 'meddling' in China's affairs; so it is turning a blind eye to both China and N Korea. This leaves the USA in a precarious spot once the conflict starts. China knows that it isn't invading either Japan or the USA. But a hostage being held in the form of S Korea and Taiwan gives them leverage at the Peace Negotiations after the limited (7-10 days?) conflict. Their goal is to cripple Americas' Navy, and Air assets in the Pacific, and hold sway over Japan and S Korea, while invading and reclaiming Taiwan for themselves. I give this scenerio maybe 20 more years to unfold.
so the Best way to Defend SK, --IMO-- would be to-
A.-Strengthen the Japanese, and S Korean positions both Politically and Militarily
B.-Maintain the Democratic movement in Taiwan.
C.-Openly denounce the N Koreans for their 'actions'-and maintain the political/economic pressure on them. (Sorry the people of N Korea.)
D.-Up the presence of the American Navy/Air Force in the region. The loss of Clark AFB/Subic Bay NAS need to be addressed. Expanding Okinawa against internal Japanese pressure may prove to be a disaster. We need more forward deployment capabilities of Major assets. The current state of basing doesn't count for the rapid Chinese deployment in the general China/Taiwan area.
E.-Actively use any N Korean assets to effect change in the N Korean Gov't.
F.-Last, and probably the hardest one, slowly shift American Policy towards China. Having a friend is great, but we aren't 'sleeping together' so perhaps putting the 'friendship' in its proper place may help. China begs for recognition, and wants to a Major SP, yet they are thwarted by their on backwardness. Keep reminding them of this. Use Step B above versus them as well.
Just my opinion.

 

[Sampanviking]

How can South Korea best protect itself from the North? is perhaps a better question.

The easiest answer is for Seoul to move far closer to China and displace Pyongyang as Beijing's principle partner on the peninsular. This means that any moves to reunify the peninsular would have tacit Chinese support and that they would happily drop the North like a hot stone.

Such thinking is now permeating the South Korean consciousness for a whole range of security and economic reasons and the notions of moving away from the US and towards China made quite a stir when it was aired at a high level symposium recently.

Asia Times Online :: Korea News and Korean Business and Economy, Pyongyang News

'Seductive' China to strain Seoul's US ties

The United States has bristled at the notion that South Korea, its close, reliable East Asian security partner, could one day turn its back on the US and draw closer to China.

Discussions on maintaining the US-South Korean alliance in Seoul this week became heated when Chang Dal-joong, professor at Seoul National University said that South Korean public sentiment "is divided as to whether we should team up with the US or China".

Chang was speaking at a forum hosted by South Korean daily JoongAng Ilbo and US think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

 

[rip]

How can South Korea best protect itself from the North? is perhaps a better question.

The easiest answer is for Seoul to move far closer to China and displace Pyongyang as Beijing's principle partner on the peninsular. This means that any moves to reunify the peninsular would have tacit Chinese support and that they would happily drop the North like a hot stone.

Such thinking is now permeating the South Korean consciousness for a whole range of security and economic reasons and the notions of moving away from the US and towards China made quite a stir when it was aired at a high level symposium recently.

Asia Times Online :: Korea News and Korean Business and Economy, Pyongyang News

'Seductive' China to strain Seoul's US ties

I do not believe that SQDLER’ position that China is the evil puppet master pulling the strings from behind the scenes and causing all of these problems is the correct one. I will grant you that China has more influence in North Korea than anyone else but China is not calling the shots.

In many ways the relationship between China and North Korea is similar to that of the USA and Israel. Israel is not as dependent upon the USA as North Korea is dependent upon China but no one would assume that the USA calls the shots in Israel. The USA and Israeli relationship is complicated and it is not the subject of this thread but the USA is often frustrated by many of the Israeli actions. But as that both of them are democracies, their disagreements are open to all to see if not always easy to deal with. This is not true in the Chinese and North Korean relationship.

The Chinese leadership has policies which I have often disagreed with but from their point of view, they are rational policies. The Chinese leadership is not crazy and they really do care, to at least to some extent about the welfare of their own people but few would say the same about the North Korean leadership.

As the only country dominated by and heavily dependent upon China, Chinese prestige is heavily invested in the survival of North Korea in whatever form. But more importantly the North Koreans’ know this and exploit it. I believe the Chinese leadership is often embarrassed by North Korean actions as they sabotage many of Chinas’ wider foreign policy goals. But having little to no control of the irrational North Korean’s leadership’s actions they try to put the best face upon it so to not to appear weak.

The threat of China cutting of North Korea is only valid if the North Koreans believe that the Chinese will pay the price of the loss of Chinese prestige in the world that a failed North Korea will inevitably bring. Remember they are selling themselves to the rest of the world as the next up and comer and that would not look good.

I may be wrong. If I am wrong and the Chinese can pull the plug on the North Koreans at any time they chose and so they really do have the power to control north korea in that way, then what strategy or tactic could they employ to do it and still keep their prestige intact?

To prove me wrong, all anybody has to do is come up with a strategy where China could, if it chose to do so, dump North Korea and not take a hit on its international prestige. If you can give a creatable strategy then I am wrong, if not I am right.


As to SAMPANVIKING’s Comment, that South Koreas’ best hope for peace comes from cozying up to China. Though it is prudent to have the best possible relations with such a major power such as is China, I do not think they will find being dominated by China to be in any way acceptable. They have suffered from foreign domination before and the do not want any part of it ever again.

 

[ozz]

I think SK should reply to all DPRK's... actions of this kind. Otherwise they will get used to a thought that the South has little will or even unable to wage war against them if there's such a need. Of course, there's always a risk of a full-scale war, but allowing the North to play with far-ranging artillery is more risky than to retaliate sufficiently.

Even though they have LNG range arty, To my opinion, and reason beyond doubt, their arty can't take out hundreds of aircraft precision bombers, that are going in quick and coming out fast to the full extent pushing the aircraft to their limits, repetitively doing air strikes, by Sk and USA. I for one highly doubt the probability of North Korea lasting to even exhaust America or sk, but what does scare me since Nk does have a lot of arty, about 8k worth how does the capital Seoul hope to defend from repetitive barrages from the artillery? surely enough I doubt that sk has enough anti-missiles to do the job? Also another thing is Nk seems to like to hide their military in mountains that's completely smart but redundant.:lam

 

[SteelTiger 177]

What can be done to ensure South Korea's security is to have a strong U.S. and ROK presence along with Austrailuia,New Zealand,Canada and Japan working collectively similar to NATO.We must make sure our Forces in South Korea are kept strong as well as our forces in Japan .The exercises currently underway in South Korea are a first step.The Next is to broaden these exercises to include reenforcements from the U.S. similar to what was done with the Team Spirit more than 30yrs ago.Lets face it China hasn't been much help when it comes to North Korea,They been absolutly no help with reguards to Iran I doubt they as well as the Russians would be of any use here.

 

[swerve]

... but what does scare me since Nk does have a lot of arty, about 8k worth how does the capital Seoul hope to defend from repetitive barrages from the artillery?

Most of that artillery is out of range of Seoul. The northern part of the motorway which circles Seoul is 20 km from the nearest part of North Korea, & that is a salient, which could only hold a very small part of that vast artillery force. Much of it is rice paddies: no digging guns into tunnels there! It's another 20 km to the city centre.

The centre of Incheon is 30 km from the same point in N. Korea.

Given the range of most N. Korean guns & artillery rockets, & the limited area of the salient which puts some of them within range of Seoul, I would not expect them to be able to indulge in 'repetitive barrages'. I would expect any artillery in that area to be destroyed rather quickly. It could do a fair bit of damage to the northern parts of Seoul first, but the city - and almost all its millions of inhabitants - would survive, unless attacked with chemical agents or the like. And for that, you don't need huge numbers of guns, just a few missiles or bombs.

I wish everyone who brings up the numbers of N. Korean guns & the proximity of Seoul to the demarcation line would (1) look at a map, & (2) think of what that artillery exists for, which is mostly to fight the S. Korean & US armies. Most of it is deployed far out of range of any part of Seoul.

 

[hauritz]

Oops ... replied to the wrong thread ... ignore this.

 

[gazzzwp]

A worrying development.

BBC News - North Korea expands nuclear weapons programme

I would sincerely hope after this announcement that the major powers particularly China will work to prevent material, nuclear or otherwise from entering North Korea.

I hesitate to say because I don't think there is definite proof, but the movement of Iranian personnel especially needs to be monitored.

Notice also how everything is retaliatory rhetoric in one form or another.

I wonder if we could see the three major powers co-operate together to force a regime change? There must be some long term solution to all this?

 

[King Wally]

I took a quick look at the North Korean Airforce last night.... they would get owned in days and loose all control of the air, even in a simple 1 vs 1 fight with South Korea.

NK's air power seams to rely on just 30 odd Mig -29's and waves of irrelevant outdated 3rd and 2nd generation fighters that wouldn't be worth the cost of the jet fuel to fill up.

SK mind you has already 60 odd F-15's and 180 odd F-16's along with a great number of 2nd teir fighters like F-5's and F-4's which at the least could handle the bulk of NK's outdated fleet arms.

Add in American or Japanese air support and the North Koreans may as well just give up and flee their air force to China. Once total air power is controlled the vast NK tank armies and artillery would be sitting ducks. Best NK could hope for would be to throw out as much random damage as they could via artillery/WMD etc before they ended up all bailed up in Bunkers. Honestly the more I looked in their defence force the more I realised they are little more then sitting ducks with a big quacking arrogant mouth. Wouldn't matter if they had 100 tanks or 10,000 tanks, unless each one is strapped with AA missiles they are in for a rude shock if they took a crack at a 21st century war.

 

[gazzzwp]

Honestly the more I looked in their defence force the more I realised they are little more then sitting ducks with a big quacking arrogant mouth. Wouldn't matter if they had 100 tanks or 10,000 tanks, unless each one is strapped with AA missiles they are in for a rude shock if they took a crack at a 21st century war.

Unless of course:

China mobilizes military, on 'high alert' over N. Korea threats — RT News

Just more RT propaganda? Is it true that no one really knows what the Chinese attitude is regarding the current situation?

I tended to believe that they were now against NK and more of an embarrassment. Or are China sitting on the border ready to cope with refugees?

China's involvement just complicates the situation.

 

[STURM]

I tended to believe that they were now against NK and more of an embarrassment. Or are China sitting on the border ready to cope with refugees?

The DPRK has always been a bit of an embarrassment and a lot of frustration for China but the point to remember is that Chinese leader's do not want a unified Uncle Sam friendly Korea on its doorstep - for the Chinese the DPRK is an important buffer.

China's involvement just complicates the situation.

Why would it? China is probably the only country that has a certain amount of influence with the 'North'.

 

[NatIsrael972]

The DPRK has always been a bit of an embarrassment and a lot of frustration for China but the point to remember is that Chinese leader's do not want a unified Uncle Sam friendly Korea on its doorstep - for the Chinese the DPRK is an important buffer.



Why would it? China is probably the only country that has a certain amount of influence with the 'North'.

@STURM

If you're referring to those days during the Korea War then yes, I can see that the DPRK is a very important buffer to the PRC. Either way, Communism came from the north, spread to China and onto China's neighbouring countries. Not all neighbouring countries accepted communism and of course they resisted and I am glad the whole Asia is not inspired by communism. To protect South Koreans from North Korean military, the South should prohibit fishing not just near the NLL lime but more than that since the North Korean military can simply bypass the NLL and abduct the victims they need in exchange of the defectors. The South should not ever exchange the defectors for their own citizens but be on the watch now and to prevent North Korean military from entering into South Korean territorial waters. Keeping South Korean fishermen away from the NLL is really not enough. It would be better to not fish near there even though that may impact South Korea's fisheries but this is for the good of South Korea ultimately.