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Ukranian Crisis

This is a discussion on Ukranian Crisis within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by Rimasta It seems like the Ukrainian military is totally unprepared for dealing with crowds of unarmed civilians. ...


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Old May 2nd, 2014   #556
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Originally Posted by Rimasta View Post
It seems like the Ukrainian military is totally unprepared for dealing with crowds of unarmed civilians. Is it a lack of equipment and training, or is it a desired heavy handed approach? Looks like tear gas would help dispersing crowds. The active denial system also seems ideal for this situation. It will make anyone at a checkpoint, police station, administration building, feel compelled to leave without the use of live ordnance, and the Ukrainian military would be able to take back control, assuming of course Russia doesn't intervene.
There's a lot of talk about sending the Ukraine weapons but from watching the news it seems what they need is a way to disperse civilians without shooting them. Why hasn't this been discussed? Even advisory help, the Ukrainian response seems poorly executed. If locals can blunt them so effectively, the Russian army should be able to drive seemingly right through them.
These are not crowd dispersal units. They likely don't have tear gas. These are heavily armed military units that came to fight separatist militias. Perhaps they should have packed tear gas and come to Odessa do protect citizens there instead.

If things keep going the way they are going Russia will get involved. They won't be able to simply stand aside and watch ethnically Russian civilians getting ran over by APCs and beaten and burned to death. This mess has every potential to become WW3.
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Old May 2nd, 2014   #557
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Sorry little bit out of topic.
Few days ago, Indonesian Mindef presented to Indonesian Parliament the military procurement program up until 2014. In the presentation there are still contract from Ukraine for BTR-4. Just wandering if any info for Ukraine defence industrial complex still working under present conditions ? Some talk around members of parliament from what I heard ask the mindef if Ukraine still capable to fullfill the contract for BTR-4, but from what I gather the mindef still can not give definite answer on Ukraine capabilities for delivering those BTR-4.

Isn't that most Ukraine military industry is on Eastern part ?
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Old May 2nd, 2014   #558
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This mess has every potential to become WW3.
It certainly does not. What's your basis for this assertion?
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #559
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It certainly does not. What's your basis for this assertion?
US/NATO come to Ukraine's aid if and when Russia gets involved.

Russia comes in strictly to protect its people in Ukraine while NATO tells the rest of the world that Russia is illegally invading a country(and some more false accusations towards Russia would help as well, just watch CNN during the 2008 Georgia-Russia war to see what I am talking about).

Plus IMO the US NEEDS to start another war to have any chances of fixing their point of no return debt.

Just my 2 cents..

Really hope it all ends peaceful
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #560
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It certainly does not. What's your basis for this assertion?
Perhaps I overreacted a bit. But sometimes it does seem that if hardliners on both sides have their way, both US and Russia will soon have their troops in Ukraine fighting on opposite sides.
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #561
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I find that Trade Unions fire really disturbing. I wouldn't blame if Russia had to fully intervene and even take Kiev at this point. They are really forcing Russia to make moves, to which they really have no choice but to intervene..
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #562
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Can we stay in the lane of reality and not let the thread slip into fantasy land....
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #563
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Originally Posted by Comrade69 View Post
US/NATO come to Ukraine's aid if and when Russia gets involved.

Russia comes in strictly to protect its people in Ukraine while NATO tells the rest of the world that Russia is illegally invading a country(and some more false accusations towards Russia would help as well, just watch CNN during the 2008 Georgia-Russia war to see what I am talking about).

Plus IMO the US NEEDS to start another war to have any chances of fixing their point of no return debt.

Just my 2 cents..

Really hope it all ends peaceful
That kind of nonsense is exactly why I don't watch CNN. There is no World War 3 behind this. This is a regional geopolitical crisis. It's very significant, because it highlights the problems that remain unresolved between Russia and the West, as well as the question of how FSU states see their future. Please keep the conversation focused around the facts and realities at hand.

EDIT: Just to clarify during the War in Georgia, I kept running and updated a similar thread to this one, posting info. I got buckets of comments, from people telling me how much more useful they found my thread then mainstream news. Hint hint.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueRose View Post
I find that Trade Unions fire really disturbing. I wouldn't blame if Russia had to fully intervene and even take Kiev at this point.
This is exactly how Russian a lot of public feels at this point. I'm not so sure. The rest of Ukraine is not like Crimea, and the question is, what do you do with Ukraine once you take it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ananda View Post
Sorry little bit out of topic.
Few days ago, Indonesian Mindef presented to Indonesian Parliament the military procurement program up until 2014. In the presentation there are still contract from Ukraine for BTR-4. Just wandering if any info for Ukraine defence industrial complex still working under present conditions ? Some talk around members of parliament from what I heard ask the mindef if Ukraine still capable to fullfill the contract for BTR-4, but from what I gather the mindef still can not give definite answer on Ukraine capabilities for delivering those BTR-4.

Isn't that most Ukraine military industry is on Eastern part ?
If I understand correctly, they'd need both the Kiev and Kharkov plants to fill that order. I don't know if that will be possible, given the current situation. But who knows. Things are developing very rapidly.

The Chinese landing craft contract is also up in the air right now.
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #564
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The Odessa incident was a tragedy and a shamefull display of humanitys worst characteristics: Cheering while people burn alive.

This will have consequences, not only has the euro-maidan crowd lost it's "innocence" in the eye's of the world which might decrease support for them in the west, but also is putting pressure on Putin and the russian goverment to react.

The pro-ukrainien elements couldn't have done a greater harm to their cause at this point, we will see how this is going to play out but I believe that kiev has to regain controll fast.

This is propably the last chance to avoid a much bigger catastrophy for ukraine.
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #565
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Update.

Photos out of Slavyansk. There is some info about a foreign national, a sniper, who was killed in Slavyansk by the locals, after having fired on both militia and civilians. Info is unconfirmed. The OSCE observers seem to have been released.

u-96.livejournal.com/3380870.html

A civilian was run over by an APC in Slavyansk.

*

Ukrainian MoD reports human shields blockading their troops around Slavyansk.

NEWSru.com :: - , " "

A giant smoke trail can be seen in Konstantinovka. It's unclear what's burning or where.

Блог Александра Шакуна - 3.05.14 Константиновка, что под Донецком

The Ukrainian military is in Kramatorsk. However instead of fighting against local self defense forces, it's confronted by angry civilians. The civilians in the second and third video are yelling at the soldiers to get out of their city. Shots have been fired in the city, and a lot of locals are scared. Only a few are in the streets. Nothing like the crowd that showed up at the airfield, last time the military was here.

Note the much better equipment on the soldiers. These are not army. these are SBU and MVD special detachments. However among the BTRs are many older BTR-70s, it looks like there aren't enough working BTR-80s.

u_96:
jerry24_it:

Fighting did occur in Kramatorsk, or near it, earlier. Several locals were killed, and some arrived with firearms injuries in the local hospital. Locals say 5 dead, 16 wounded.

Денис Мокрушин - Краматорск
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/56197.html

In the Andreevka village, a human chain of civilians was fired on by the government troops, killing 10, wounding 40.

*

Russian sources claim that Ukraine is hiding true casualty numbers, when it claims that only 2 of their service members have died. Russian sources list 15 dead, with more unreported. This is probably true, given the heavy fighting, and that at least two service members died in the helicopter shootdowns alone.

Минобороны Украины скрывает реальное количество жертв со своей стороны

CAST comments on the appearence of Ukrainian BMP-3s. It appears there are only two of them. Ukraine inherited 6 from the USSR. One was sold to the USA. One was modified with a new engine, and became a prototype. One was in such bad shape that it's completely unusable. This leaves 3 of which two have been sighted. Theories on why they're being used are two: either they're intended to be used as "Russian troops" in some sort of provocation, or the Ukrainian military is so desperate that it needs every working vehicle. Both have merits.

bmpd -

Ukrainian MVD is issuing Ukrainian passports to 300 foreign nationals out of Poland, and the Baltics, who are participating in the anti-terrorist operation as "instructors".

http://russian.rt.com/article/30439#ixzz30ewGTJrh

Photos out of Odessa.

u-96.livejournal.com/3381283.html

Videos. Warning the second one has some very graphic scenes.

Денис Мокрушин - Про невинность

Meanwhile the Ukrainian MVD claims that the people in Trade Union building in Odessa set their own building on fire... despite you know all the footage, eyewitness testimony to the contrary, etc.

Денис Мокрушин - Демократическое расследование показало

There are sources that indicate that the Ukrainian MVD was complicit in the events in Odessa. This would explain the highly passive behavior of the Odessa police, which did nothing. The casualty list for Odessa is 42 dead, 214 wounded.

Lots of photos and videos of the fighting in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are also in there.

Colonel Cassad -
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #566
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Update.

Photos out of Slavyansk. There is some info about a foreign national, a sniper, who was killed in Slavyansk by the locals, after having fired on both militia and civilians. Info is unconfirmed. The OSCE observers seem to have been released.

u-96.livejournal.com/3380870.html

A civilian was run over by an APC in Slavyansk.

*

Ukrainian MoD reports human shields blockading their troops around Slavyansk.

NEWSru.com :: - , " "

A giant smoke trail can be seen in Konstantinovka. It's unclear what's burning or where.

Блог Александра Шакуна - 3.05.14 Константиновка, что под Донецком

The Ukrainian military is in Kramatorsk. However instead of fighting against local self defense forces, it's confronted by angry civilians. The civilians in the second and third video are yelling at the soldiers to get out of their city. Shots have been fired in the city, and a lot of locals are scared. Only a few are in the streets. Nothing like the crowd that showed up at the airfield, last time the military was here.

Note the much better equipment on the soldiers. These are not army. these are SBU and MVD special detachments. However among the BTRs are many older BTR-70s, it looks like there aren't enough working BTR-80s.

u_96:
jerry24_it:

Fighting did occur in Kramatorsk, or near it, earlier. Several locals were killed, and some arrived with firearms injuries in the local hospital. Locals say 5 dead, 16 wounded.

Денис Мокрушин - Краматорск
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/56197.html

In the Andreevka village, a human chain of civilians was fired on by the government troops, killing 10, wounding 40.

*

Russian sources claim that Ukraine is hiding true casualty numbers, when it claims that only 2 of their service members have died. Russian sources list 15 dead, with more unreported. This is probably true, given the heavy fighting, and that at least two service members died in the helicopter shootdowns alone.

Минобороны Украины скрывает реальное количество жертв со своей стороны

CAST comments on the appearence of Ukrainian BMP-3s. It appears there are only two of them. Ukraine inherited 6 from the USSR. One was sold to the USA. One was modified with a new engine, and became a prototype. One was in such bad shape that it's completely unusable. This leaves 3 of which two have been sighted. Theories on why they're being used are two: either they're intended to be used as "Russian troops" in some sort of provocation, or the Ukrainian military is so desperate that it needs every working vehicle. Both have merits.

bmpd -

Ukrainian MVD is issuing Ukrainian passports to 300 foreign nationals out of Poland, and the Baltics, who are participating in the anti-terrorist operation as "instructors".

http://russian.rt.com/article/30439#ixzz30ewGTJrh

Photos out of Odessa.

u-96.livejournal.com/3381283.html

Videos. Warning the second one has some very graphic scenes.

Денис Мокрушин - Про невинность

Meanwhile the Ukrainian MVD claims that the people in Trade Union building in Odessa set their own building on fire... despite you know all the footage, eyewitness testimony to the contrary, etc.

Денис Мокрушин - Демократическое расследование показало

There are sources that indicate that the Ukrainian MVD was complicit in the events in Odessa. This would explain the highly passive behavior of the Odessa police, which did nothing. The casualty list for Odessa is 42 dead, 214 wounded.

Lots of photos and videos of the fighting in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are also in there.

Colonel Cassad -
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Old May 3rd, 2014   #567
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the Ukrainian troops in eastern ukraine have started killing unarmed protesters
and there is a pic on twitter of PrivatBank, on fire in Mariupol
(can't post links because of new account)
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Old May 4th, 2014   #568
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Update.

Rebels communicate that 2 helos were shot down, two were damaged. So no third helo has been downed. They estimate that they killed ~10 soldiers, wounded many others. They've encountered Right Sector fighters among the government forces. In one checkpoint armored vehicles first ran over a person trying to blockade them, then fired into a human chain blockading them with 10 civilians killed and 40 wounded. They also report casualties among their own number, but they don't give a total figure.

Коммюнике Штаба народного ополчения - YouTube
The Ukrainian government reports that it has retaken Kramatorsk, but this appears to be untrue. At least 10 dead in Kramatorsk so far. Locals report that government troops have rolled through the city, without engaging the rebels, who continue to control government buildings in the city, and now that government forces have left, they rebels have control of the city once more.

CNN:
NEWSru.com :: , . " 24": 10
NEWSru.com :: " " - ,

Photos and video from Kramatorsk.

jerry24_it:
jerry24-it.livejournal.com/56939.html

Photos from Slavyansk.

tutuskania:

In Lugansk the rebel militia have stormed a military commissariat where local draftees are being held. Results are unclear.

NEWSru.com :: , 18-

Heavy fighting is ongoing in Konstantinovka.

NEWSru.com :: ,

In Mariupol' government troops are attacking the rebels, who are holed up inside government buildings in the city center. And some serious trashing was done in the center, including attacks on private business, and the Bat'kovschina party office.

NEWSru.com ::
http://military-informant.com/index....ts/5216-1.html

Russian sources speculate a lack of transport aircraft in Ukraine, given that they recently pulled a 4th Il-76 out of storage, in addition to the 3 flyable ones they already had.

http://military-informant.com/index....ce/5217-1.html

Also we have reports of Ukrainian National Guard checkpoints, near the Belorussian border.

http://military-informant.com/index....ts/5215-1.html
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Old May 4th, 2014   #569
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Update.

Earlier news of Ukrainian forces taking Kramatorks turned out to be completely false.Troops rolled through the outskirts, on APCs, but avoided the city center where the resistance fighter were positioned. They also seized a TV tower. Yes A TV tower. Not THE TV tower. In other words, instead of seizing the main TV center, they (by mistake) "captured" an unguarded re-translator tower that was not being used.

Russian media and bloggers cite a CNN correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, who is in Kramatorsk, as describing the city being essentially under rebel control. This is confirmed by locals, who say the military has left. Fighting did take place, mainly around the outskirts, and government APCs shot up some buses and trolleybuses in the center, that may have been used as barricades.

Блог Александра Шакуна - Армия славаукраины "захватила" в Краматорске не ту телевышку
Colonel Cassad -
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/...oSKjR3Oyzg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/...7trDV35rdg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/...0En6iX6Zls.jpg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...0.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...9.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...0.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...4.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...6.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...9.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...3.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...8.720x480.jpeg
http://cs607321.vk.me/v607321177/85d7/-Qn-edOy-3I.jpg

In Mariupol' government forces attempted to storm the government buildings held by the rebels. No casualties were taken. Witnesses state that "the entire city" came out to defend the pro-Russian militia, making any sort of assault impossible. Tires were burned probably by the protesters.

Просто интересный блог... - Мариуполь 4 мая
Мариуполь ночью 04 05 2014 - YouTube Мариуполь 3 05 2014 1 - YouTube
In Slavyansk the rebels have effectively fought off the government troops, and it seems that they may even have control over some of their outer checkpoints. Russian sources even report that fighting has resumed in the woods near the city. This would mean that the rebels pushed out government troops that far.

http://videocdn.itar-tass.com/width/...04/3722534.jpg
ИТА*-ТАСС: Международная панорама - Сторонники федерализации Украины вынудили отряды Нацгвардии отступить от Славянска

Photos of a Donetsk Republic rally in Kurahovo.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...eKYx1KeBEI.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...m0p6KUhVFk.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...ta-lbaIxeY.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...w7mA0t8n-k.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...EhW-Lpz3CI.jpg

In Enakievo pro-Donetsk Republic protesters have seized the metallurgical plant.

http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_...08196-3744.jpg
http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_...07826-4244.jpg

A small protest in Kharkov (1000 people reportedly).

http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd0c/3WoKECYSrQQ.jpg
http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd20/FOllJtpjUgI.jpg
http://cs614930.vk.me/v614930032/cd3e/YehB-GSaI8s.jpg

Pro-Russian demonstration in Gorlovka.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...b5_VzcyxTg.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...zhQ_nxVHRs.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...s_5njnn_0Y.jpg

In Lugansk the Military Commissariat was stormed by local militia. Right Sector insignia and armbands were found inside.

У военкомата в Луганске ополченцы нашли нашивки "Правого сектора" - YouTube Новое Ситуация в Луганске 03 05 2014 - YouTube
A centralized army is being formed in Donetsk, with more volunteers that they can manage to organize coming in.

*

In Odessa local pro-Russian activists report that Right Sector activists are going into hiding, and leaving the city, fearing reprisals. Allegedly one was already murdered.

Locals report that Odessa Berkut has released pro-Russian activists that were arrested.

Also some sources claim that there are many more dead in Odessa, then officially stated, and that there are attempts to secretly move bodies out.

https://vk.com/antimaidan_zahid_ua
Украинские журналисты сообщают о сотне погибших в Доме профсоюзов | Одесса | Вести

Checkpoints near the Belorussian border have been confirmed.

http://cs619431.vk.me/v619431285/3ac4/avBR4GeCkLY.jpg
http://cs619431.vk.me/v619431285/3acd/V9ERDnd59ug.jpg
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Old May 4th, 2014   #570
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Update.

Earlier news of Ukrainian forces taking Kramatorks turned out to be completely false.Troops rolled through the outskirts, on APCs, but avoided the city center where the resistance fighter were positioned. They also seized a TV tower. Yes A TV tower. Not THE TV tower. In other words, instead of seizing the main TV center, they (by mistake) "captured" an unguarded re-translator tower that was not being used.

Russian media and bloggers cite a CNN correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, who is in Kramatorsk, as describing the city being essentially under rebel control. This is confirmed by locals, who say the military has left. Fighting did take place, mainly around the outskirts, and government APCs shot up some buses and trolleybuses in the center, that may have been used as barricades.

‘лог Александ€а Шакƒна - А€мия славаƒк€аин‹ "за…ва‚ила" в š€ама‚о€ске не ‚ƒ ‚елев‹ˆкƒ
Colonel Cassad -
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/...oSKjR3Oyzg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/...7trDV35rdg.jpg
https://pp.vk.me/c620922/v620922366/...0En6iX6Zls.jpg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...0.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...9.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...0.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...4.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...6.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...9.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...3.720x480.jpeg
http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/unio...8.720x480.jpeg
http://cs607321.vk.me/v607321177/85d7/-Qn-edOy-3I.jpg

In Mariupol' government forces attempted to storm the government buildings held by the rebels. No casualties were taken. Witnesses state that "the entire city" came out to defend the pro-Russian militia, making any sort of assault impossible. Tires were burned probably by the protesters.

Ÿ€ос‚о ин‚е€есн‹й блог... - œа€иƒполŒ 4 мая
Мариуполь ночью 04 05 2014 - YouTube Мариуполь 3 05 2014 1 - YouTube
Fighting around Konstantinovka.

Стрельба из бронетехники возле Констянтиновки 03 05 2014 - YouTube
In Slavyansk the rebels have effectively fought off the government troops, and it seems that they may even have control over some of their outer checkpoints. Russian sources even report that fighting has resumed in the woods near the city. This would mean that the rebels pushed out government troops that far.

http://videocdn.itar-tass.com/width/...04/3722534.jpg
˜ТА*-ТАСС: œеждƒна€одная пано€ама - С‚о€онники „еде€ализа†ии Ук€аин‹ в‹нƒдили о‚€яд‹ На†гва€дии о‚с‚ƒпи‚Œ о‚ Славянска

Photos of a Donetsk Republic rally in Kurahovo.

http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...eKYx1KeBEI.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...m0p6KUhVFk.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...ta-lbaIxeY.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...w7mA0t8n-k.jpg
http://cs7009.vk.me/c7008/v7008752/1...EhW-Lpz3CI.jpg

In Enakievo pro-Donetsk Republic protesters have seized the metallurgical plant.

http://images.unian.net/photos/2014_...08196-3744.jpg
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A small protest in Kharkov (1000 people reportedly).

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Pro-Russian demonstration in Gorlovka.

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In Lugansk the Military Commissariat was stormed by local militia. Right Sector insignia and armbands were found inside.

У военкомата в Луганске ополченцы нашли нашивки "Правого сектора" - YouTube Новое Ситуация в Луганске 03 05 2014 - YouTube
A centralized army is being formed in Donetsk, with more volunteers that they can manage to organize coming in.

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In Odessa local pro-Russian activists report that Right Sector activists are going into hiding, and leaving the city, fearing reprisals. Allegedly one was already murdered.

Locals report that Odessa Berkut has released pro-Russian activists that were arrested.

Also some sources claim that there are many more dead in Odessa, then officially stated, and that there are attempts to secretly move bodies out.

https://vk.com/antimaidan_zahid_ua
Ук€аинские жƒ€налис‚‹ сооб‰аŽ‚ о со‚не погибˆи… в ”оме п€о„соŽзов | žдесса | ’ес‚и

Checkpoints near the Belorussian border have been confirmed.

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