Ukraine---Russia or NATO

Big-E

Banned Member
Big-E....translating Ukranian and Belarus defence industries into open market participation at their current funding, and given current market environment would take a lot more funding then can possibly come from Pakistan, or even China.
That's true... but Belarus and Ukraine have one thing going in their favor. They are privatizing their defense industries. It's been a slow process to say the least but finally happening on a large scale. I haven't kept up with Belarus news but Ukraine has intorduced sweeping reforms to kill the culture of corruption left over from the Soviet Era. This culture of corruption has been killing Western investment in private industry in the past in all FSU countries. Ukraine is now getting large investments from the EU/US and joining the WTO opens alot of doors. The ability to receive foreign investment and attract top designers is one thing Russian R&D can't get.

Access to Iran is problematic as Iran's oil production dwindles (and hence their desire for nuclear energy production, and Russia's role in that). It seems to me same applies to China in the long run. I think Ukranian participation in the Pakistani 'deal' can not be considered a long term fource of sustained support for its industry's development.
Well Ukraine, Georgia and the EU are constructing a gas pipeline to supply Caspian gas in European countries. A specially created international consortium of five companies already started its work on the project. Length of gas pipeline will be around 1,000 km. Part of the pipeline between Georgia and Ukraine will be constructed on the sea floor. The route will be Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea-Ukraine-Europe pipeline. They can't rely going thru Russia.

I think as long as India consorts with Russia... Pakistan will consort with Ukraine, which seems to be a long time.


It seems to me 'NATO' defence market needs another two entrants like a proverbial 'hole in the head' :)
However 'even if', it seems to me breaking in will be a hard thing to do, and a process that will require partnerships and strategic partnerships at that.
The NATO defense sector can always use partners to battle for the Russian market. They could even use Ukraine's Russian defense base as a bridge to gap other nations into NATO standards. What a wonderful opportunity!
 

FutureTank

Banned Member
Belarus and Ukraine...are privatizing their defense industries....Ukraine has intorduced sweeping reforms to kill the culture of corruption left over from the Soviet Era. This culture of corruption has been killing Western investment in private industry in the past in all FSU countries. Ukraine is now getting large investments from the EU/US and joining the WTO opens alot of doors. The ability to receive foreign investment and attract top designers is one thing Russian R&D can't get.
The global defence market is one of the most corrupt there is regardless of where it is based. The influx of money into Ukraine has only to do with availability of cheaper costs in SOME 'Western' manufacturing projects. Russian policy is however to retain defence manufacturing on par with that of the USA. As you well know there are manufacturers in USA which are 'protected' because of the strategic significance of their production to DoD as a whole.

Well Ukraine, Georgia and the EU are constructing a gas pipeline to supply Caspian gas in European countries. A specially created international consortium of five companies already started its work on the project. Length of gas pipeline will be around 1,000 km. Part of the pipeline between Georgia and Ukraine will be constructed on the sea floor. The route will be Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea-Ukraine-Europe pipeline. They can't rely going thru Russia.
"Irans oil exports may disappear
By BARRY SCHWEID
WASHINGTON
Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis released Monday by the National Academy of Sciences."


I think as long as India consorts with Russia... Pakistan will consort with Ukraine, which seems to be a long time.
Yes.


The NATO defense sector can always use partners to battle for the Russian market. They could even use Ukraine's Russian defense base as a bridge to gap other nations into NATO standards. What a wonderful opportunity!
How successfull has the European defence industry been in their battle for the US defence market? I think you are right about the general trend, but this is a trend that will take decades rather then years.
 

Big-E

Banned Member
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  • #3
The global defence market is one of the most corrupt there is regardless of where it is based. The influx of money into Ukraine has only to do with availability of cheaper costs in SOME 'Western' manufacturing projects. Russian policy is however to retain defence manufacturing on par with that of the USA. As you well know there are manufacturers in USA which are 'protected' because of the strategic significance of their production to DoD as a whole.
The levels of corruption for defense contracts are one thing. The levels of corruption for regular day to day business dealings are another. Since we are speaking to R&D we don't just look at the defense sector but other tech sectors as well as many of these are dual-use technologies as Ukraine is trying to do. The reason Russia (and Ukraine) have not been able to get much done economically speaking is due to business corruption. If you look at the amount of foreign investment pouring into Ukraine's tech and industry sector and that of Russia you will see vast differences. Taking out Russia's foriegn investors into energy infrastructure it is almost nill. Ukraine has a long way to go but is headed in the right direction. Russia has yet to make the reforms and keeps the mantra bussiness as usual.


"Irans oil exports may disappear
By BARRY SCHWEID
WASHINGTON
Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis released Monday by the National Academy of Sciences."
The trend varies on the PPB of oil... considering the global supply is dwindling their oil will be more valuable unless it is too expensive for them to extract. If that's the case then I'll jump for joy as they can no longer hold the oil gun to our head. Iran isn't the only country's gas to flow through this line but Turkmenistan as well.

I just read in Ukriane news today they are still proceeding with the pipeline.

http://en.for-ua.com/news/2006/12/25/160659.html


How successfull has the European defence industry been in their battle for the US defence market? I think you are right about the general trend, but this is a trend that will take decades rather then years.
Europe seems to be doing pretty well for itself... IMO the US has advantage in aviation but in ship building Europe takes the cake. In land warfare systems German equipment seems to fare rather well. I feel US/Europe doesn't compete so much as Europe actually buys US equipment. We are in a struggle to beat out the Soviet arms influence and bringing Ukraine into the camp will REALLY help that.
 

FutureTank

Banned Member
The levels of corruption for defense contracts are one thing. The levels of corruption for regular day to day business dealings are another. Since we are speaking to R&D we don't just look at the defense sector but other tech sectors as well as many of these are dual-use technologies as Ukraine is trying to do. The reason Russia (and Ukraine) have not been able to get much done economically speaking is due to business corruption. If you look at the amount of foreign investment pouring into Ukraine's tech and industry sector and that of Russia you will see vast differences. Taking out Russia's foriegn investors into energy infrastructure it is almost nill. Ukraine has a long way to go but is headed in the right direction. Russia has yet to make the reforms and keeps the mantra bussiness as usual..
You may be right, but I don't happen to believe in 'free' trade. It seems to me that trade always had, is and will be corrupt to the degree that the people who own the entities are, and they are. Defence is where it is seen most clearly because of the intricate connetion to national defence security needs, and the politics that govern these decisions. It seems to me the Russian have always been realists while Ukranians are just doing what they think they need to do to get into EU 'umbrella'. This is what happens when people don't read history books.


The trend varies on the PPB of oil... considering the global supply is dwindling their oil will be more valuable unless it is too expensive for them to extract. If that's the case then I'll jump for joy as they can no longer hold the oil gun to our head. Iran isn't the only country's gas to flow through this line but Turkmenistan as well.

I just read in Ukriane news today they are still proceeding with the pipeline.

http://en.for-ua.com/news/2006/12/25/160659.html.
Of course they are, but is this a strategic decision? Iran is going to build that Russian designed reactor because it has seen the 'writing on the wall' in its energy sector. However for Ukraine and Georgia to halt construction is to admit defeat...and perform political harakiri. Not going to happen.


We are in a struggle to beat out the Soviet arms influence and bringing Ukraine into the camp will REALLY help that.
Soviet? Are you still fighting the Cold War?! Russian defence industries are now participating in the global market. The fact that they are partly controlled by the government is simple a fact of life in how national investments are made. Many governments have controlling interests in their national defence manufacturers 'East' and 'West'.
Do you see US naval shipyards bidding for the Russian carriers?
 

Big-E

Banned Member
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  • #5
You may be right, but I don't happen to believe in 'free' trade. It seems to me that trade always had, is and will be corrupt to the degree that the people who own the entities are, and they are. Defence is where it is seen most clearly because of the intricate connetion to national defence security needs, and the politics that govern these decisions. It seems to me the Russian have always been realists while Ukranians are just doing what they think they need to do to get into EU 'umbrella'. This is what happens when people don't read history books.
I only beleive in free trade if it is truly carried out. The US doesn't really conduct free trade as we allow ourselves to get run over so I guess I don't beleive in it either as there is no such thing as REAL free trade. I beleive in fair trade. I agree Ukraine is doing what it needs to do to get into the NATO system. She is leasing her strategic air-lift for NATO use. I don't see why you are opposed to Ukraine leaving mother Russia so she can grow up. You yourself said Russia is going towards EU herself. She can use Ukraine as a model for what she needs to have happen.


Of course they are, but is this a strategic decision? Iran is going to build that Russian designed reactor because it has seen the 'writing on the wall' in its energy sector. However for Ukraine and Georgia to halt construction is to admit defeat...and perform political harakiri. Not going to happen.
It really isn't meant to be political... more strategic. Ukraine cannot afford to have her gas suppy at the hands of Gazprom and Russia. When they turned their oil off many old folk perished from the cold. It is a matter of self preservation. You would do the same... I'm sure.


Soviet? Are you still fighting the Cold War?! Russian defence industries are now participating in the global market. The fact that they are partly controlled by the government is simple a fact of life in how national investments are made. Many governments have controlling interests in their national defence manufacturers 'East' and 'West'.
Do you see US naval shipyards bidding for the Russian carriers?
In the terms of defense sales we are fighting the Cold War... cold war surplus sales. ;)

I'm not going to go into my East/West R&D rant again... you know the difference and what motivates people to succeed... money

At this point in time I don't think Russia could build a carrier to save her life. I have read some orders for shipyard upgrades I think for this purpose. Don't know if they were filled.
 

FutureTank

Banned Member
You yourself said Russia is going towards EU herself. She can use Ukraine as a model for what she needs to have happen.
Big-E...did I compare California and New England? ;)

Russia, the Russian Federation, is a FAR more more complex entity then Ukraine. Yes, RF is ultimatelly a part of Europe, but the road to that is paved differently. Reality is that RF is also Ukraine's major market, aside from the 1/3 of the Russian speaking population. However Ukraine may want to 'run' to EU, the laws of markets will inevitably 'pull' it towards Russia. This is what ultimatelly led to Ukrain being a part of the Russian Empire in the first place. The difference today is not so much territorial in physical sense as it is in market sence. When Ukranians will face a choice between encroachment of Turks, Poles, and whoever else, they will invariably turn to Russia, and this has nothing to do with politics of their governments.

Its the same reason Texas is part of USA and not Mexico.
 

Big-E

Banned Member
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  • #7
Big-E...did I compare California and New England? ;)

Russia, the Russian Federation, is a FAR more more complex entity then Ukraine. Yes, RF is ultimatelly a part of Europe, but the road to that is paved differently. Reality is that RF is also Ukraine's major market, aside from the 1/3 of the Russian speaking population. However Ukraine may want to 'run' to EU, the laws of markets will inevitably 'pull' it towards Russia. This is what ultimatelly led to Ukrain being a part of the Russian Empire in the first place.
Actually not even 1/4th of the population speaks Russian. The Ukrainian military has made it forbidden to speak in Russian and the parliament has refused to make it a second language. It is now banned for Ukrainian diplomats to speak Russian as well.

The law of markets in the past draw it to Russia but they are doing everything they can to break the dependence. The pipeline is just one example. The refusal to upgrade Mig-29s to Russian SMT is another. They invite EU summits of all kinds and lend their airlift to NATO. Their is no denying what Ukraine is trying to do.

I don't know if your aware of feeling for most Ukrainians but Chernobyl is a big Russian killer in this FSU nation. The Orange Revolution and the Gas crises only drive the wedge deeper. Unless Russia starts begging for forgiveness instead of storming Ukrainian lighthouses they will never go back.

The difference today is not so much territorial in physical sense as it is in market sence. When Ukranians will face a choice between encroachment of Turks, Poles, and whoever else, they will invariably turn to Russia, and this has nothing to do with politics of their governments.

Its the same reason Texas is part of USA and not Mexico.
Ukraine doesn't have to worry about encroachment of Poles, they have more in common with them then they do with Russia. Why do you think they let their peace keepers fall under Polish command? :hehe
 

Big-E

Banned Member
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  • #8
I would like this thread to be about Ukraine and the topic to discuss Russian and NATO/EU influence and which way she might go as it relates to the military future of Europe.
 

FutureTank

Banned Member
Actually not even 1/4th of the population speaks Russian. The Ukrainian military has made it forbidden to speak in Russian and the parliament has refused to make it a second language. It is now banned for Ukrainian diplomats to speak Russian as well.
Its a matter of opinion how many Russian live in Ukraine. What will matter is when this 'minoroty' begins to voice its persecution in the EU forums where minority rights is a major EU policy.
Ukraine is really just trying to get out of the 'flames' and into 'fire' as they say :)
 

webmaster

Troll Hunter
Staff member
All of the posts from the last page of old Russian 4th carrier thread moved here.

Of course the topic at hand is:

I would like this thread to be about Ukraine and the topic to discuss Russian and NATO/EU influence and which way she might go as it relates to the military future of Europe.

In above posts, you will find bits and pieces about russian naval carrier, please ignore as there is a discussion on that in this thread:
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5598

Enjoy!
 

Big-E

Banned Member
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  • #11
Its a matter of opinion how many Russian live in Ukraine. What will matter is when this 'minoroty' begins to voice its persecution in the EU forums where minority rights is a major EU policy.
Ukraine is really just trying to get out of the 'flames' and into 'fire' as they say :)
My source is CIA... 24%

Russian disadents are already voicing their persecution. So are the Tatars and Yushenko is doing a pretty decent job to address their concerns. He isn't pushing the issue as he would like and is taking baby steps. Yushenko's actions show he is aware of the Russian's when he stopped the NATO presence at their behest.

I believe the idiom you are looking for is "out of the frying pan and into the fire."
 

DragonKing786

New Member
"Irans oil exports may disappear
By BARRY SCHWEID
WASHINGTON
Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis released Monday by the National Academy of Sciences."
You guyies do know about 2 weeks ago a $ 12 Billion dollar deal (Oil) with China was signed to pump new oil out and make new facilities., and upgrade the current ones, China needs Iran more than anything right now., and the person who wrote the above article should also try to do alittle more research. :dance3
 
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