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Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad

This is a discussion on Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; To all in general and no one in particular The "Nostradamus" in me is sending alarm bells that this post ...


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Old November 6th, 2012   #91
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To all in general and no one in particular

The "Nostradamus" in me is sending alarm bells that this post in about to enter the tertiary stages of turning into a scrum and then a crap fight.

before anyone adds any further comment can you please read the forum rules about content and one liner issues.

before you hit submit, read it in preview mode and then ask yourself whether its going to pass the forum "happy participant test" - if it doesn't - or if you have a doubt, then don't submit

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Old November 8th, 2012   #92
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In an exclusive interview with Russian Government backed channel -RT, Syrian President Bashar Al- Assad said he will not leave Syria. Assad also spoke on the calls for armed foreign intervention in Syria, and the possible fallout on the country’s internal conflict and across the region.

“We are the last stronghold of secularism and stability in the region and coexistence, let’s say, it will have a domino effect that will affect the world from the Atlantic to the Pacific and you know the implication on the rest of the world,” The interview will be aired on Friday, November 9,.

On the other hand Turkey has requested NATO to deploy patriot air defense missiles on its Syrian border to bolster aerial defense.

Restructuring of Syrian political opposition is taking place in the Qatari capital of Doha, broad based representation of Syrian opposition figures including all the minorities and Women is being formed. Tomorrow the representatives will elect their new president.

US presidential elections are over and it seems that no fly zone is on the card inside the liberated Syrian territory.

In his interview on RT Al Assad looks quite confident and composed. He has accepted mistakes but desisted to get in to details as in his words; it would be unfruitful to discuss mistakes amidst the chaos. He accused Turkish PM by saying that “Erdogan thinks that if Muslim Brotherhood takes over in the region and especially in Syria, he can guarantee his political future, this is one reason. The other reason, he personally thinks that he is the new sultan of the Ottoman and he can control the region as it was during the Ottoman Empire under a new umbrella. In his heart he thinks he is a caliph”.

watch full interview:
http://rt.com/news/assad-interview-exclusive-syria-265/

Last edited by explorer9; November 9th, 2012 at 06:39 AM.
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Old November 15th, 2012   #93
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Would Israeli airstrike on Gaza placate Syrian international campaign against Hafez Al-Assad?

Israel has killed Head of the military chief of Gaza in an air strike on Wednesday the airstrike killed 12 more people including women and children in the besieged strip. Hamas targeted Israeli towns in retaliation on Thursday with barrage of rockets that killed three Israeli civilians and wounded 6 others. Israeli attack has shifted the course in Middle East and it is speculated that it would put the Syrian issue on the back-burner.

i would like to know the opinion of fellow forumers on thus issue.
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Old November 15th, 2012   #94
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Why would another large scale Israeli operation into Gaza 'placate' the international campaign to oust Assad or even place it in the back burner? The priority of the Arab League is to get rid off Assad in the knowledge that this will weaken and further isolate Iran and Hezbollah, they are certainly not going to shift focus to Gaza [one of the few things the Gulf Arabs can agree upon is that Assad has to go and this is because they all benefit from it!!]. Same goes with the West, if more civillians get killed, there'll be yet again more calls for '' both sides to execrcise restraint'', for a 'ceasefire' and there might be calls from some quarters for an emergency meeting at the UN [yet again!] but attention will certainly not be diverted from Syria.

Now off course things would be different if we were on the verge of a peace deal between the Palestinians and Israel and the situation in Gaza threatened to scuttle the deal but the peace deal is dead and the Arabs and the West have other concerns at the moment. What is interesting is how the new Egyptian government will respond politically to the Israeli's going into Gaza again as Egypt's new rulers have made it clear that they will not be so subserviant as Mubarak was in dealing with the Gaza issue in order not to annoy Israel or America.

Last edited by STURM; November 16th, 2012 at 07:11 PM.
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Old November 23rd, 2012   #95
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Egypt brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came in to force from Wednesday night and focus is again shifted to long drawn war of Syria. With the deployment of Patriot SAM are on the way on Turkish Syrian border along with AAWACS. On the other hand rebel forces have gained ground on large swath of area along side Turkish and Iraqi border. No fly zone implementation has already begun lets see how Syrian regime respond on that.
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Old November 23rd, 2012   #96
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There is no no-fly zone anounced by anyone. Turkey just stated that they will intercept any Syrian aircraft entering their airspace.
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Old December 3rd, 2012   #97
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Patriot SAM’s are set to be installed on Turkish Syrian border, Russian President Putin has arrived in Istanbul and the meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is scheduled to take place in few hours time it is expected that Syrian crisis is on top of the agenda.

Is there any negotiated settlement possible of the ongoing crisis by two regional powers supporting the rivals? Can Turkey and Russia find the convergence on the settlement of Syrian stalemate?
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Old December 3rd, 2012   #98
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Patriot SAM’s are set to be installed on Turkish Syrian border, Russian President Putin has arrived in Istanbul and the meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is scheduled to take place in few hours time it is expected that Syrian crisis is on top of the agenda.

Is there any negotiated settlement possible of the ongoing crisis by two regional powers supporting the rivals? Can Turkey and Russia find the convergence on the settlement of Syrian stalemate?
The rebels insist no settlement is possible that leaves Assad in power, and there is no point in negotiating until that is accepted as a precondition. The reason is that, given the history of the Assad regime, the rebels are sure that they and their families will all be murdered if he is allowed to stay. Assad insists that no settlement is possible that does not leave him in power, and there is no point in negotiating until that is accepted as a precondition. And Turkey cannot force a solution by itself even if Russia were not involved.

The Turkish position is that Russia needs to withdraw support for Assad in hopes of force him to leave and get negotiations started. This presumes, of course, that Assad can find someplace to go that will not extradite him when demanded by the ICC for crimes against humanity, which is unlikely.

So the answer is that a fight to the death is the most likely outcome.
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Old December 3rd, 2012   #99
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The reason is that, given the history of the Assad regime, the rebels are sure that they and their families will all be murdered if he is allowed to stay.
It also has to do with the fact that the 'rebels' are worried that if the situation drags on indefinitely with no side able to gain the upper hand, the West and the Sunni Arabs might seek accomodation with Assad - this would leave the rebels in the lurch. If a desperate Syria agreed to severe or downgrade its strategic relationship with Iran, and also agreed to do the same with Hezbollah, it is not inconceivable that the West and the Sunni Arab states would be willing to negoitiate with Assad. A major part of what is happening has to do with the fact that a 'cold war' is being fought between the Sunni Arabs [led by Saudi] and Iran. Arab support for the rebels and calls for Assad's ouster is targeted at Iran as the Sunni Arab states would like a 'friendly' not very democratic Sunni Syrian regime in power, which in turn would considerably weaken Iran and lessen its regional influence.

The Sunni Arab states are very relieved that the situation in Gaza did not worsened, as they can now continue to concentrate on Syria. The biggest irony and hyprocisy is that none of the Sunni Arab states that want Assad out - on the official grounds that he is a dictator, has no regard for human rights and is mudering his citizens - are actual democracies themselves or were even elected into power.

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So the answer is that a fight to the death is the most likely outcome.
Indeed and despite assurances by the 'rebels' that their fight is against the Alawite government and not against the Alawite community, the Alawites have not forgotten that prior to the Bathists coming to power, they were not treated well by the Sunni majority.
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Old December 4th, 2012   #100
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The rebels insist no settlement is possible that leaves Assad in power, and there is no point in negotiating until that is accepted as a precondition. The reason is that, given the history of the Assad regime, the rebels are sure that they and their families will all be murdered if he is allowed to stay. Assad insists that no settlement is possible that does not leave him in power, and there is no point in negotiating until that is accepted as a precondition. And Turkey cannot force a solution by itself even if Russia were not involved.

The Turkish position is that Russia needs to withdraw support for Assad in hopes of force him to leave and get negotiations started. This presumes, of course, that Assad can find someplace to go that will not extradite him when demanded by the ICC for crimes against humanity, which is unlikely.

So the answer is that a fight to the death is the most likely outcome.

1-Rumor has it that, Putin is proposing that Assad hands over power to Farouk Sharaa and the current defense minister leads the regime army and the FSA. It seems that Putin did not find any taker of his proposal and opposition has refused that.

2- FSA to merge with regime army and Russians to name the generals it wants to keep.
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Old December 4th, 2012   #101
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1-Rumor has it that, Putin is proposing that Assad hands over power to Farouk Sharaa and the current defense minister leads the regime army and the FSA. It seems that Putin did not find any taker of his proposal and opposition has refused that.
Any idea where Russia proposed for Assad family to go? Because without an escape hatch, and a way to enjoy their stolen wealth, the family will never accept the proposal.
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2- FSA to merge with regime army and Russians to name the generals it wants to keep.
The rebels would never accept that, and it would make Syria a Russian puppet in the eyes of world.
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Old December 5th, 2012   #102
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Any idea where Russia proposed for Assad family to go? Because without an escape hatch, and a way to enjoy their stolen wealth, the family will never accept the proposal.



The rebels would never accept that, and it would make Syria a Russian puppet in the eyes of world.
Again the rumors are brewing that Assad with his Family and close associates are looking for asylum in a South American country most probably Venezuela or Cuba. Assad’s deputy PM is in South America on official visit for the said arrangements.


That is the impasse; Russia is accentuating the Zimbabwe or Kenya like arrangement in Syria where incumbent and opposition forms the Government jointly but Turkey, Arabs and West do not want Assad to remain in power anymore.
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Old December 5th, 2012   #103
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Sen. McCain opined several days ago that by drawing a line in the sand on the use of chemical weapons, Washington may just be validating in Assad's mind that he can get away with pretty much everything else in his arsenal without fear of intervention. Still, with the lessons from Libya still fresh can the US risk those stockpiles of WMDs falling into the wrong hands with each passing day? Or is a bloody stalemate the best course for the US at this time?
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Old December 5th, 2012   #104
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Sen. McCain opined several days ago that by drawing a line in the sand on the use of chemical weapons, Washington may just be validating in Assad's mind that he can get away with pretty much everything else in his arsenal without fear of intervention. Still, with the lessons from Libya still fresh can the US risk those stockpiles of WMDs falling into the wrong hands with each passing day? Or is a bloody stalemate the best course for the US at this time?
All it tells Assad is that as long as something is not going on with chemical weapons, which probably includes movement or the appearance of rebels inside the storage areas, the US and NATO are unlikely to take unilateral action with UN approval.

OK, that does validate pretty much anything else, but what is the anything else he has got left? Suggestions anyone?

The end game for those chemical weapons is critical, because they must not fall into the wrong hands. This brings up several questions:
  1. Do we have an arrangement with the rebels to secure and hand over the chemical weapons once they come into possession?
  2. Are we set to respond is Assad just pulls out the troops guarding those weapons?
  3. Is NATO, especially the EU members, prepared to tell the ICC to get lost and approve asylum for Assad in exchange for a handover of the chemical weapons? It is very likely that Assad see’s those weapons as a ‘get out of jail free’ card.
  4. What will NATO do if Assad invites them in to take over some of the chemical weapons storage sites (he cannot give up all the sites without losing option 3) so he can put the troops stationed there to use against the rebels? These are probably some of his best troops remaining.

    And how are the rebels likely to respond? Will they see this as western support for Assad?
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Old December 5th, 2012   #105
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Just being reported now on CNN that Syrian military are in the process of loading precursor chemicals into bombs for airborne delivery. I would think that this development is actually a couple of days delayed and is actually what prompted the Obama warning earlier this week.
If accurate, it could be a bluff by Assad but it just raises the stakes that much more.

Last edited by colay; December 5th, 2012 at 11:05 PM.
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