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Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad

This is a discussion on Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; I think if Turkey where forced to conduct full military operation s against Syria then Saudi arabia won't be far ...


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Old October 8th, 2012   #31
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I think if Turkey where forced to conduct full military operation s against Syria then Saudi arabia won't be far behind maybe even Jordan then Russia would be pushed to intervene.Even Iran has started to voice concerns with regards to the Syrian uprising they definetly won't back Syria against turkey.
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Old October 8th, 2012   #32
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I think if Turkey where forced to conduct full military operation s against Syria then Saudi arabia won't be far behind maybe even Jordan then Russia would be pushed to intervene.Even Iran has started to voice concerns with regards to the Syrian uprising they definetly won't back Syria against turkey.
Syria is quagmire much more complex than Libya. Ethnic, Religious, Geo-strategic mix of Syria is difficult to handle by any regional power alone. The aftermath of the conflict will be messy and there will be long lasting chaos. A new diplomatic proposal is augmented by Turkish external affairs minister that Al-Assad would be replaced by his deputy president, Farook Al-Shara for the transition period
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Old October 8th, 2012   #33
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Why are we even comparing Turkey's military capabilities to that of Russia?
As far as I can make out, Russia has not even indicated that it will get militarily involved in the event of Turkish intervention in Syria!!

It would be more interesting to discuss the long term implications of a Turkish clash with Syria, e.g., how will it affect the Kurdish situation, how will it affect Turkey's long term relations with the Arabs, would intervention signal Turkey's rise as a regional power, etc,? With Turkey already calling for regime change and being a haven for Syrian rebels, in the event of a clash, will the Turks decide to go all the way to remove Assad, with the tacit support of the West?

A point everyone should bear in mind is that in historically, the Arabs have always been cautious of Turkey, this is due to the fact that the Ottoman empire ruled what is now called Jordan, Iraq, Palestiane, etc. And this is precisely why until recently, Turkey has always had better defence ties with Israel rather than with the Arabs. In the short term, the Arabs may welcome a clash between Syria and Turkey in the hope that Turkey will do away with Assad - which is something the Arabs are unable and unwilling to openly do - but in the long term do Arab states like Saudi and Egypt welcome the idea of a Turkey which has assumed the status of a regional superpower or onr that is more vocal and has incresing regional influence?
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Old October 8th, 2012   #34
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Why are we even comparing Turkey's military capabilities to that of Russia?
As far as I can make out, Russia has not even indicated that it will get militarily involved in the event of Turkish intervention in Syria!!

It would be more interesting to discuss the long term implications of a Turkish clash with Syria, e.g., how will it affect the Kurdish situation, how will it affect Turkey's long term relations with the Arabs, would intervention signal Turkey's rise as a regional power, etc,? With Turkey already calling for regime change and being a haven for Syrian rebels, in the event of a clash, will the Turks decide to go all the way to remove Assad, with the tacit support of the West?

A point everyone should bear in mind is that in historically, the Arabs have always been cautious of Turkey, this is due to the fact that the Ottoman empire ruled what is now called Jordan, Iraq, Palestiane, etc. And this is precisely why until recently, Turkey has always had better defence ties with Israel rather than with the Arabs. In the short term, the Arabs may welcome a clash between Syria and Turkey in the hope that Turkey will do away with Assad - which is something the Arabs are unable and unwilling to openly do - but in the long term do Arab states like Saudi and Egypt welcome the idea of a Turkey which has assumed the status of a regional superpower or onr that is more vocal and has incresing regional influence?
We are discussing the emerging scenarios of Syrian crisis and the recent upheaval caused by border shelling form Syrians and the Turkish response for the same. It is the sixth consecutive day of the shelling from both the sides is continued unabated. Russians have urged, advised and warned on numerous occasions for the dire consequences of direct foreign military intervention in Syria.

We have previously discussed the impact of Turkish intervention and its aftermath on regional politics especially how would Arabs take the Turkish mentoring and Kurdish resurgence. You are advised to have looked on earlier posts
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Old October 8th, 2012   #35
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Russians have urged, advised and warned on numerous occasions for the dire consequences of direct foreign military intervention in Syria.

You are advised to have looked on earlier posts
I have looked at the previous posts.

What I was questioning was the comparison that was made between the Turkish military and that of Russia's, as I'm of the opinion that it has no direct bearing to the current mess in Syria and the increasing likehood that things will flare up with Turkey. I'm fully aware of the warnings Russia has made but as far as I'm aware, these warnings were aimed at the potential for things getting out of hand with devastating consequences first for the region, then further afield, and was not a direct warning as to the likehood of direct Russian military intervention. Although Syria is exremely important to Russia, it is extremely unlikely that Russia would intervene militarily against Turkey as this would lead to all out war with NATO and would not be to Russia's interests at all.

Everything is wholly dependent on what Syria might do next in response to rebel activity along the border and whether or not Turkey is actually eager to assume a greater role in the crisis and is looking at a greater pretext for doing so. I would expect that Syrian government forces along the border have been told to be very selective in returning fire and have has strict rules of engagements imposed on them as the last thing Assad needs is for an open conflict with Turkey. And it goes without being said that rebel forces along the border, will in all certainty do all they can and encourage Syrian govrnment forces to hit back at them, in the hope that this will draw the Turks in.

Though this article is not about the potential of a clash between both countries and its implications, it does make for interesting reading.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...hs-of-conflict

Last edited by STURM; October 8th, 2012 at 04:29 PM.
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Old October 9th, 2012   #36
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I have looked at the previous posts.

What I was questioning was the comparison that was made between the Turkish military and that of Russia's, as I'm of the opinion that it has no direct bearing to the current mess in Syria and the increasing likehood that things will flare up with Turkey. I'm fully aware of the warnings Russia has made but as far as I'm aware, these warnings were aimed at the potential for things getting out of hand with devastating consequences first for the region, then further afield, and was not a direct warning as to the likehood of direct Russian military intervention. Although Syria is exremely important to Russia, it is extremely unlikely that Russia would intervene militarily against Turkey as this would lead to all out war with NATO and would not be to Russia's interests at all.

Everything is wholly dependent on what Syria might do next in response to rebel activity along the border and whether or not Turkey is actually eager to assume a greater role in the crisis and is looking at a greater pretext for doing so. I would expect that Syrian government forces along the border have been told to be very selective in returning fire and have has strict rules of engagements imposed on them as the last thing Assad needs is for an open conflict with Turkey. And it goes without being said that rebel forces along the border, will in all certainty do all they can and encourage Syrian govrnment forces to hit back at them, in the hope that this will draw the Turks in.

Though this article is not about the potential of a clash between both countries and its implications, it does make for interesting reading.

The Syrian Revolution: A Report After 15 Months of Conflict | Small Wars Journal
The comparison was not drawn for the possible Russo-Turkish war but to analyze the threat perception emerging from the current situation. We must bear in mind that “in international diplomatic parlays” threats play a very important role in preventing the military aggression against the relatively weaker nation. Russian warnings have played a major in the survival of basher Al-Assad regime; it is almost two years since the uprising started and we have seen only the talks of military intrusion. Russians prevented the regional powers including Turkey against the direct military intervention inside the Syria. In all likelihood the Russians would not like to intervene militarily to save Al-Assad regime.

You rightly said that the Syrian government would not like to enter into direct military conflict with the Turks bearing in mind the superior military machines of Turks and their own fragile situation inside Syria. What is important for me to determine the role of NATO, if and when Turkish military marches inside the Syrian territory either for creating a safe zone or all out war (if situation arises)?

Thanks for sharing the article, yes a good one with proper analysis.
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Old October 9th, 2012   #37
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Would Turkey really need to invade Syria,its been stated that the main advantage that the Syrian forces have over the rebels is airpower and heavy weaponry.So taking the airforce out would create a level playing field.
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Old October 9th, 2012   #38
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Would Turkey really need to invade Syria,its been stated that the main advantage that the Syrian forces have over the rebels is airpower and heavy weaponry.So taking the airforce out would create a level playing field.
Yes deep land invasion is not required as they have FSA and other groups for foot soldiering. First they need to destroy Syrian air defense they posses self-effacing and efficient air defense Missiles and anti aircraft guns that is in good numbers. Then comes the Syrian air force and that is very weak in compare to modern Turkish Air force.
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Old October 9th, 2012   #39
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Would Turkey really need to invade Syria,its been stated that the main advantage that the Syrian forces have over the rebels is airpower and heavy weaponry.So taking the airforce out would create a level playing field.
Depends on your definition of ‘invade’.

To suppress the Syrian Air Force they will need to first take out the anti-aircraft. With a sufficient quantity of the appropriate weapons it is not to difficult to eliminate the fixed defenses, but it may be necessary to insert small groups of troops on the ground to track down the mobile units if they are being sneaky (i.e. a Scud hunt).

Speaking of which, Syria has a large ballistic missile inventory which has not been used. Most of these are fairly short ranged (Israel is a small country), but there are still some that can reach well into Turkey, and for political as well as practical reasons must be taken out ASAP. That probably means even more troops on the ground to locate them. This was not a problem in the Libyan intervention.

So how many troops do you need on the ground inside Syria before it becomes an invasion?
You can bet that there will be Press outlets pumping the ‘invasion’ meme for all it is worth, including some that are not Syrian.
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Old October 9th, 2012   #40
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Depends on your definition of ‘invade’.

To suppress the Syrian Air Force they will need to first take out the anti-aircraft. With a sufficient quantity of the appropriate weapons it is not to difficult to eliminate the fixed defenses, but it may be necessary to insert small groups of troops on the ground to track down the mobile units if they are being sneaky (i.e. a Scud hunt).

Speaking of which, Syria has a large ballistic missile inventory which has not been used. Most of these are fairly short ranged (Israel is a small country), but there are still some that can reach well into Turkey, and for political as well as practical reasons must be taken out ASAP. That probably means even more troops on the ground to locate them. This was not a problem in the Libyan intervention.

So how many troops do you need on the ground inside Syria before it becomes an invasion?
You can bet that there will be Press outlets pumping the ‘invasion’ meme for all it is worth, including some that are not Syrian.
Heey 2cent, you are deffo right here, but given the fact that Syria is a puppet of Russia and given their internal problems i think the question should be asked if Assad is able to counter Turkey's efforts.
I mean yes the ballistic assets of Assad pose a real danger, on the other hand how much fight is there left inside Assad.
Fighting his own people is one, but fighting a superior force given the instability is another thing specially with the internal opposition within the government will add enough difficulty for Assad to do anything i believe.
Personally i could see his whole government structure split into fractions and thus creating a new civil war within the current civil war and given the international stance i think its save to say that Assad his days are numbered.
Even with the support of Russia its going to be nearly impossible for Assad to keep his head above the water.
So to speak his ship is sinking and a war with Turkey (Small or big) will deffo punch some new holes into his sinking ship.
So regardless the strategic efforts by Russia to protect Assad, its not wroth it for Russia to keep protecting him, so i could see Russia swing around and have Assad replaced by a more western accepted key figure, who at the same time has a warm link with Russia.
This would be the least painful option, because the alternative (Either by force or by waiting it out) is in nones interest.

Just saying Assads ship is sinking question is when? and when is Russia going to write Assad off as a "lost" case, specially with even Iran criticizing Syria.
Many analysts say that Assad has started digging his own grave, so one could say that Assad is already beyond the point of no return.
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Old October 9th, 2012   #41
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and given the international stance i think its save to say that Assad his days are numbered.
Many months ago, people were saying the same thing. Bashir Assad may well be on his way out but then again he could somehow miraculously hold on indefinitely. Back when the Muslim Brotherhood declared war on the Baathists and Assad the elder razed Hama to the ground, it was also speculated that his days were numbered - though admittedly the situation
then was not as bad as it now.

Bashir Assad is certainly in a terrible position, he is without Arab allies, his only regional ally is under tremendous pressure, his government is shaky and he is facing rebels who are supported by the West and are hell bent on his ouster. It reminds me of 1982, when Assad the elder had to simultaneously face off Israel in Lebanon, had to duel with Saddam and at the same time with George Shultz, who was pressing Syria over Lebanon, only now its much more serious now, off course.

An intersting article that gives much food for thought.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...t-8201347.html

Turkish jets intercept a Syrian commercial plane which is forced to land.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe...804010971.html

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/euro...ants-war-syria

Last edited by STURM; October 10th, 2012 at 02:36 PM.
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Old October 11th, 2012   #42
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Many months ago, people were saying the same thing. Bashir Assad may well be on his way out but then again he could somehow miraculously hold on indefinitely. Back when the Muslim Brotherhood declared war on the Baathists and Assad the elder razed Hama to the ground, it was also speculated that his days were numbered - though admittedly the situation
then was not as bad as it now.

Bashir Assad is certainly in a terrible position, he is without Arab allies, his only regional ally is under tremendous pressure, his government is shaky and he is facing rebels who are supported by the West and are hell bent on his ouster. It reminds me of 1982, when Assad the elder had to simultaneously face off Israel in Lebanon, had to duel with Saddam and at the same time with George Shultz, who was pressing Syria over Lebanon, only now its much more serious now, off course.

An intersting article that gives much food for thought.

Plucky little Turkey standing up to evil Syria? It's not as simple as that - Robert Fisk - Commentators - The Independent

Turkish jets intercept a Syrian commercial plane which is forced to land.

Turkey diverts Syrian plane to Ankara - Europe - Al Jazeera English

Nobody in Turkey wants war with Syria - Al Jazeera Blogs
Russian support, both diplomatic and armed is vital for Basher’s survival, with Pantsir missiles and Mig war planes Al-Assad and daily threats provided much needed victuals for regime’s endurance. The forced landed aircraft luggage inspected and authorities confiscated communication devices for military use later allowed the plane to fly to Syria.

The Turkish government has put its armed forces into a “high state of readiness”.
MURAT YETK
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Old October 13th, 2012   #43
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3 air defense bases were captured this week by the anti Al-Assad forces around Idlib, Homs and Aleppo. Is turkey preparing for assault?
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Old October 14th, 2012   #44
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3 air defense bases were captured this week by the anti Al-Assad forces around Idlib, Homs and Aleppo. Is turkey preparing for assault?
Can you cite the bases taken and source of info? Very interesting development.
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Old October 15th, 2012   #45
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Can you cite the bases taken and source of info? Very interesting development.
Eastern Ghouta area outskirt of Damascus, near the town of Douma

Air defence base east of Aleppo

Maarat al-Nuaman

The sources are genuine but can not be verified by independent sources.
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