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South China Sea News & Discussions, incl Spratly Islands News

This is a discussion on South China Sea News & Discussions, incl Spratly Islands News within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by Sandhi Yudha Thanks for sharing. A small country or a country which is economically dependend from China ...


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Old September 20th, 2011   #16
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Originally Posted by Sandhi Yudha View Post
Thanks for sharing.
A small country or a country which is economically dependend from China will pull back now, but India isn't both of them....
Sorry I misread the article.

Yeh I don't see the Indians pulling back from this, unless China was really really serious about this matter, then perhaps this would go down a different path.
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Old September 20th, 2011   #17
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Korea News!: Hainan China Mounted Nuclear Weapon Facing Manila

Interesting news article from the Korean news online blogspot, very alarming events if this turns out to be on actual planning stage by China...
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Old September 20th, 2011   #18
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Korea News!: Hainan China Mounted Nuclear Weapon Facing Manila

Interesting news article from the Korean news online blogspot, very alarming events if this turns out to be on actual planning stage by China...
Really alarmist IMO. It makes no sense to target Manila with nukes as everyone is aware of China's military capabilities and Manila,s inability to pose any comparable threat.. this article seems intended to be a PR jab against Beijing . even if true, its counter-productive on China's part,, the last thing it wants is to give an excuse for Manila to invoke the MDT which is very clear about a nuke threat..
Its going to reach a point sometime where push comes to shove and we'll see how Manila responds to Chinese actions. That joint Viet Namese- Indian oil venture is also going to provide a litmus test of Chinese seriousness re the disputed areas.
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Old September 20th, 2011   #19
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Oh authors

Sometimes I hate how authors can phrase their titles in a way that can make a story sound worse than it actually is. It sounds like India and China are about to fight over that small area near Vietnam. Cause in reality it's not even clsoe to that.
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Old September 21st, 2011   #20
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It's highly irrelevent whether or not Chinese nukes are actually targetted at Manila, which I doubt. The plain fact is that China has a handful of SSBNs and hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles than can be targetted and launched anywhere in South East Asia if there is need. The main prority for China's strategic nukes is and will be India, Japan, Russia, the U.S. and U.S. military bases in the region.

Last edited by STURM; September 21st, 2011 at 02:55 PM.
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Old September 21st, 2011   #21
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China

China would definitely not go for Russia. I'll bet they are willing to take out all US assets in the area. Russia would be more likely to join China against the US considering its past actions (eg. Military exercise with North Korea, Arms deals with Syria and Iran).
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Old September 24th, 2011   #22
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I wouldn't be too surprised with an Indian naval/air base there in the near future. Indian air presence will prove to be very lethal against China. India is much more experienced in warfare.

The news is troublesome. The big arms race is brewing in the South China Sea.
What are these Indian naval/air bases that will be so threatening? Let's not make stuff up here.
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O yes, this is just the beginning....
of? Any moves by India in this area will be countered by moves around India. India's neigbhours are just as nervous over India (actually even more) than South China Sea countries over China. There are far more important things for these countries to deal with then trying to pick fights in the other guy's background.

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This is worth watching.. more work for the diplomats. Hopefully India and Viet Nam stand firm. Logically this dispute would be elevated to some legal body for arbitration but somehow I get the impression China isn't too keen on this approach to problem resolution.
Didn't VN accuse China of sabotaging a survey effort in the disputed area not too long ago?
Well, here is the thing though. Vietnam can claim that area belongs to Vietnam and India can agree with it to legitimize its operations there. But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to who?

I'm not saying China is right to survey the area either by the way. I'm saying that this is a very complex matter and Vietnam is trying to bring external forces right now, because it's simply too weak to counter China by itself. I think that it sounds good and appeals to the local youth to stand up against China, but Vietnam should realize the military and more importantly the economical weakness it has vs China. So Vietnam government should not overstep its boundary.

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India to sell BrahMos missile to Vietnam | Deccan Chronicle

This is sure to cause concern in Beijing. Not just the Brahmos but the deepening partnership between the 2 couuntries, both of which have had armed conflictswith the PRC in the past.
I don't think Beijing is sweating over this deal. I would say that there are also a lot of reports over the expanding cooperation between PLA and VPA. That doesn't seem to get covered, because people seem to want to emphasize this South China Sea problem.
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Old September 24th, 2011   #23
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What are these Indian naval/air bases that will be so threatening? Let's not make stuff up here.

of? Any moves by India in this area will be countered by moves around India. India's neigbhours are just as nervous over India (actually even more) than South China Sea countries over China. There are far more important things for these countries to deal with then trying to pick fights in the other guy's background.


Well, here is the thing though. Vietnam can claim that area belongs to Vietnam and India can agree with it to legitimize its operations there. But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to who?

I'm not saying China is right to survey the area either by the way. I'm saying that this is a very complex matter and Vietnam is trying to bring external forces right now, because it's simply too weak to counter China by itself. I think that it sounds good and appeals to the local youth to stand up against China, but Vietnam should realize the military and more importantly the economical weakness it has vs China. So Vietnam government should not overstep its boundary.


I don't think Beijing is sweating over this deal. I would say that there are also a lot of reports over the expanding cooperation between PLA and VPA. That doesn't seem to get covered, because people seem to want to emphasize this South China Sea problem.
I agree 100% with what tphuang just said.

When I was reading the previous few posts I was a little bit uncertain of what people were saying, but because I'm no expert, I didn't want to really speak out against them.
And yes, it would be nice if people didn't make stuff up.

@Kalasag
How can there be an arms race in the South China Sea ? What country in that area can even remotely match China's military strength?
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Old September 25th, 2011   #24
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I wouldn't be too surprised with an Indian naval/air base there in the near future. Indian air presence will prove to be very lethal against China. India is much more experienced in warfare.

The news is troublesome. The big arms race is brewing in the South China Sea.
What's not to understand here? Did I imply there was any Indian base now or if there was surely going to be one in the future? Please reread the statement.

First of all, India isn't even a player in the South China Sea, but IF AND ONLY IF they had an air presence, it would prove to be a big thorn to China's South China Sea policy. And yes, I know that Chinese presence is great enough in countries like Myanmar and Pakistan so it would be logical to assume India is countering this move by developing closer ties with Vietnam.

First of all, the major players are US-ROC and the PRC. China's military presence in South China Sea is arguably the strongest. ROC has the largest military base in the Spratly's, and the United States has a form of power projection via Guam. In Vietnam, there's a very strong and popular anti-China movement going on, but there is a significant number of pro-China policy-makers. Vietnam is already listed as having a Most Favored Nation Status by India and the increasing military ties with India will embolden Vietnam much more. In the Philippines, the government is trying to invoke the MDT with the United States, as a counter-move to China encroaching the Philippine EEZ, but the US is still backing off for now, but they are helping to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Of course, there's still a lot of anti-US presence and even Maoists (that China ignores).

You should also be aware of Japan and the US bringing India into a loose trilateral.
Wary of China moves, India, US & Japan plan talks - Hindustan Times
Also a separate Visiting Forces Agreement between Philippines and Australia (which is inactive for now). Note that the Philippines has their own VFA and Mutual Defense Treaty with the US.http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committe...pines_text.pdf
Aside from the ANZUS pact and the Japan-USA bilateral, a major defence pact had formed between Japan and Australia not so long ago.Japan and Australia sign defense pact / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com

The US military policy in Asia right now seems to be aiming at encircling China. China is fighting back by showing some muscle, but it isn't in their policy to start a war. And the South China Sea was caught in the cross-hairs of an already existing arms race between China and the USA.
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Old September 25th, 2011   #25
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But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to ?
China is unwilling to elevate the mattter before the appropriate legal forum andabide by international conventions governing territorialclaims. They co,tinue to mobilize to solidify their claims in the area and exploit its resources while bullying its smaller neighbors from doing the same.
VietNam is very sensibly putting in defense resources and diplomatic alliancesto pursue its interests. Both sides know a full-scale war is detrimental to both.. more likely are brief, violent clashes followed by disengagement and diplomatic maneuvering.
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Old September 26th, 2011   #26
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But unless the two sides really agree where the boundaries are, how can you really say who the disputed area belongs to ?
China is unwilling to elevate the mattter before the appropriate legal forum andabide by international conventions governing territorialclaims. They co,tinue to mobilize to solidify their claims in the area and exploit its resources while bullying its smaller neighbors from doing the same.
btw, I'm not suggesting that China should be bullying its neighbours. It should be done through negotiations amongst party involved. Realistically, Vietnam gov't should realize it's at a weaker position than China and it is unlikely to get an equitable deal out of this.
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VietNam is very sensibly putting in defense resources and diplomatic alliancesto pursue its interests. Both sides know a full-scale war is detrimental to both.. more likely are brief, violent clashes followed by disengagement and diplomatic maneuvering.
actually, the defense spending they've done have been pretty ineffective imo.
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Old September 26th, 2011   #27
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btw, I'm not suggesting that China should be bullying its neighbours. It should be done through negotiations amongst party involved. Realistically, Vietnam gov't should realize it's at a weaker position than China and it is unlikely to get an equitable deal out of this.

actually, the defense spending they've done have been pretty ineffective imo.
Give them time.. as an example, those 6 Kilo-class subs they're acquiring will be a serious concern to the PLAAN. and I don't think they'll stop there. They';re not going to beat the bully into subnission, just give him pause to consider in any potential confrontation.. then inflict a bloody nose if it comes to use of force.
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Old September 26th, 2011   #28
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Give them time.. as an example, those 6 Kilo-class subs they're acquiring will be a serious concern to the PLAAN. and I don't think they'll stop there. They';re not going to beat the bully into subnission, just give him pause to consider in any potential confrontation.. then inflict a bloody nose if it comes to use of force.
Vietnam inflict a blood nose to China?

You do know from DoD estimates, China's military spending is over 50% of yearly Vietnam's GDP.
In simple, China spends more on it's military than 50% of what Vietnam can produce in a year.

This isn't a year 8 bulling another year 8.
This is a 20 year old professional boxer VS a 7 year old girl.
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Old September 26th, 2011   #29
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Vietnam inflict a blood nose to China?

You do know from DoD estimates, China's military spending is over 50% of yearly Vietnam's GDP.
In simple, China spends more on it's military than 50% of what Vietnam can produce in a year.

This isn't a year 8 bulling another year 8.
This is a 20 year old professional boxer VS a 7 year old girl.
Oh,you mean as far-fetched an idea as VN emerging victorious vs. The US a couple of decades ago? A couple of torpedos intothe side of a shiny new aircraft carrier would qualify as a 'bloody nose' in my book.

Last edited by OPSSG; September 26th, 2011 at 09:09 AM. Reason: Fixed quote
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Old September 26th, 2011   #30
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I hope your joking.

How is Vietnam firing torpedoes at Chinese ships meant to scare the Chinese off ?

The Chinese would probably counter attack and it would be fifty times more deadly.
The Vietnamese could try and deter the Chinese by having a larger military presence, E.G. More Ships in the area, more advanced Fighter jets. but firing torpedoes is crossing the line and asking for war.

You have to remember the strength difference between these two countries is HUGE.
China has very little to lose in a conflict with Vietnam, while Vietnam could be decimated.

What does Vietnam have to gain from a conflict with China ?
I'm sure a bit of national pride isn't worth thousands of lives.
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