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Scottish Independence

This is a discussion on Scottish Independence within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Are there pockets in Scotland opposed to separation? If separation is on the table then perhaps it is time to ...


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Old September 15th, 2014   #76
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Are there pockets in Scotland opposed to separation? If separation is on the table then perhaps it is time to introduce the concept of partition to those regions in Scotland that don't want to leave the UK.
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Old September 15th, 2014   #77
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The SNP have been very specific about retaining the Queen as head of state - rather cynically so in fact as they know the familiar touches will help capture the centre/centre left vote who may not share core SNP values - ie, most of Scotland. Which is why the SNP has also campaigned on retaining the pound - they want all the creature comforts of home combined with the dynamism of a Scottish economy freed from the tyrannical yoke of an uncaring "Westminster". Never mind that they had 14 years of rule by Labour with a Scottish PM for several of those years.
Several? Blair was born in Scotland, & spent some of his childhood & half his teens there. His father was of English parentage, but raised in Scotland by Scots. His mother was an Ulster protestant with a Scottish stepfather. Most of his secondary education was in Scotland.

Despite his accent, Blair's background's much more Scottish than English, & I remember there being remarks about the UK being governed by Scots when he was PM, because of the number of 'em in the Cabinet - far more than their share of the population. Eight out of 22 in 1997-2001, including most of the top jobs. It then dropped to six, which is still three times Scotland's share of population.

Brown had half as many Scots in his cabinet.
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Old September 15th, 2014   #78
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I learn something new every day - I was thinking of Gordon Brown of course, didn't realise El' Tony was of Scots extraction.

So, just over 13 years of rule by a parliament they'd voted in, and two PM's plus a Scots cabinet. Other than that, they've never had a look in, poor things.
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Old September 15th, 2014   #79
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In the event a separated Scotland self destructs economically, has there been any terms discussed for a re-unification? I am guessing they wouldn't be pretty.
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Old September 15th, 2014   #80
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In the event a separated Scotland self destructs economically, has there been any terms discussed for a re-unification? I am guessing they wouldn't be pretty.
Ha, when they go they go, there is no coming back.
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Old September 15th, 2014   #81
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Ha, when they go they go, there is no coming back.
...& there's the rub !

Too many people following the Highlander / Braveheart / Shortbread tin mentality.

WE hate the English, let's get rid of them & Westminster & the Queen & the Nukes, but we want our all benefits / social security, the pound, to be part of NATO, to retain the use of British embassy's & the rights of a traveller abroad, carrying a British passport, oh & all the other little intricacies of British life, like postage stamps. BUT, we don't want to pay for it, we don't want to be taxed on it & we want the oil money, 'cos it's ours !

IF we do vote YES, that's me n the wife outta work, I'll need to flog the house & move South, or try Canada / Australia AGAIN !

The 12 yr old rugrat's a little upset at the prospect, but my x2 eldest who are 20 & 22, they're telling me they're voting YES !

Now THERE'S gratitude for ya !

BTW, watch this for the last 30 seconds or so...

No Scottish Divide In Shipyards Of The Clyde
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Old September 16th, 2014   #82
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...& there's the rub !

Too many people following the Highlander / Braveheart / Shortbread tin mentality.

WE hate the English, let's get rid of them & Westminster & the Queen & the Nukes, but we want our all benefits / social security, the pound, to be part of NATO, to retain the use of British embassy's & the rights of a traveller abroad, carrying a British passport, oh & all the other little intricacies of British life, like postage stamps. BUT, we don't want to pay for it, we don't want to be taxed on it & we want the oil money, 'cos it's ours !

IF we do vote YES, that's me n the wife outta work, I'll need to flog the house & move South, or try Canada / Australia AGAIN !

The 12 yr old rugrat's a little upset at the prospect, but my x2 eldest who are 20 & 22, they're telling me they're voting YES !

Now THERE'S gratitude for ya !

BTW, watch this for the last 30 seconds or so...

No Scottish Divide In Shipyards Of The Clyde
If you ever want to work on the build of an RAN ship (or sub) in the future you'd be better off moving to Spain, South Korea or Japan.
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Old September 16th, 2014   #83
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local commentary:

Peak body for Scottish farmers questions what impact Thursday's referendum results may have on trade and supply networks - Rural News - ABC Rural (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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Old September 16th, 2014   #84
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I learn something new every day - I was thinking of Gordon Brown of course, didn't realise El' Tony was of Scots extraction.

So, just over 13 years of rule by a parliament they'd voted in, and two PM's plus a Scots cabinet. Other than that, they've never had a look in, poor things.
Blair's a Scottish name. Not that that makes someone Scottish on its own: my surname's from Scotland, but that Scots ancestor of mine moved south before 1697, & David Cameron (how Scots a name can you get?) is English-born, with an aristocratic English mother - but his father was a Scot, Ian Donald Cameron, born & raised in Aberdeenshire.

Quite a few Scots in Cameron's cabinets, though mostly elected by English voters. Five out of 23 to start with, not counting himself. He then replaced one of the English with someone whose parentage I think is English, but was born in N. Ireland, grew up in Scotland & is an MP there. In 2012 it went down to four out of 22. But that's still twice Scotland's population share, & this year it sort-of went up to five: one new member was born in Scotland to Scottish & English parents, but raised in Wales.

Looking back, it seems to me that Scots have been pretty consistently over-represented in British governments. I also see many examples of people in government who it's hard to categorise by nationality, as in Scots or English. We're all pretty mixed up here. To me, that's a good argument against splitting up.
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Old September 16th, 2014   #85
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...& there's the rub !

Too many people following the Highlander / Braveheart / Shortbread tin mentality.

WE hate the English, let's get rid of them & Westminster & the Queen & the Nukes, but we want our all benefits / social security, the pound, to be part of NATO, to retain the use of British embassy's & the rights of a traveller abroad, carrying a British passport, oh & all the other little intricacies of British life, like postage stamps. BUT, we don't want to pay for it, we don't want to be taxed on it & we want the oil money, 'cos it's ours !

IF we do vote YES, that's me n the wife outta work, I'll need to flog the house & move South, or try Canada / Australia AGAIN !

The 12 yr old rugrat's a little upset at the prospect, but my x2 eldest who are 20 & 22, they're telling me they're voting YES !

Now THERE'S gratitude for ya !

BTW, watch this for the last 30 seconds or so...

No Scottish Divide In Shipyards Of The Clyde
Do your two eldest still live at home, or do they have places of their own? If they stillat home, or close enough that they pop over frequently, you might want to point out to them that a successful Yes vote means them either being homeless, or moving to England as and the missus relocate to keep (or find) comparable work.

Or that they might need a passport and/or visas to visit family and mates in the rUK following a split. Or that an independent Scotland might not have trade or diplomatic relationships in place with other countries, thereby making opportunities to work or travel abroad more difficult.

From the clip, I do find it interesting how one of the men pointed out that only one of the two choices had any risk, and that particular side was not providing any real concrete plans with specifics. Perhaps you should ask you two eldest if they would be inclined to gamble, when there is a moderate to high risk of significant losses, with the potential for small gains.

Something else to potentially see if you can dig into, is the economic impact the defence and financial sectors have on the Scottish economy, and what percentage of those sectors would remain following a split. They might be a bit less enthused if they are told outright that independence could cost mum & dad their jobs/careers, or require moving.
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Old September 16th, 2014   #86
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Blair's a Scottish name. Not that that makes someone Scottish on its own: my surname's from Scotland, but that Scots ancestor of mine moved south before 1697, & David Cameron (how Scots a name can you get?) is English-born, with an aristocratic English mother - but his father was a Scot, Ian Donald Cameron, born & raised in Aberdeenshire.

Quite a few Scots in Cameron's cabinets, though mostly elected by English voters. Five out of 23 to start with, not counting himself. He then replaced one of the English with someone whose parentage I think is English, but was born in N. Ireland, grew up in Scotland & is an MP there. In 2012 it went down to four out of 22. But that's still twice Scotland's population share, & this year it sort-of went up to five: one new member was born in Scotland to Scottish & English parents, but raised in Wales.

Looking back, it seems to me that Scots have been pretty consistently over-represented in British governments. I also see many examples of people in government who it's hard to categorise by nationality, as in Scots or English. We're all pretty mixed up here. To me, that's a good argument against splitting up.
I'm in the same boat - our lot moved down to work in the pits in the North East about 300 years back, my first name has the English spelling but the surname is pure Scots. And yes, I quite agree - I've seen no concrete explanations as to what it is that's holding back the Scots now, today, from becoming the dynamic power house they claim they will be post-independence, so why split up?
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Old September 16th, 2014   #87
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Sources: Google Maps and AW&ST Art Dept.

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A version of this article appears in the September 15 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology.

However they vote on Sept. 18, the four million residents eligible to cast ballots in the Scottish independence referendum are set to change the face of the British Isles and how they will be defended.

Few if any plans to deal with the possible transition toward an independent Scotland have been drafted by defense officials, but as the results of polls have narrowed in the final weeks of campaigning, there has been a dawning realization that a majority “yes” vote is now a very real possibility.

Even a “no” vote is likely to result in a radical devolution that will not only see the current Scottish executive gain authority but also prompt the revamping of politics across the U.K.

But what politicians fear most, of course, is a yes vote—a decision that would end 300 years of unity, with defense likely to be an early victim. Concerns about the vote have even prompted the U.K. Parliament to delay what would be a politically divisive decision on possible U.K. participation in airstrikes against Islamic insurgents in Iraq.

While the 2010 Strategic Defense and Security Review (SDSR) actually has had the effect of significantly downsizing the armed forces’ presence in Scotland—in particular for the Royal Air Force—it remains home to Britain’s Trident armed ballistic missile submarines, the country’s collective nuclear deterrent.

While fighter aircraft and soldiers can be moved easily to new home bases and barracks south of the border, relocating the nuclear deterrent would be a major headache for defense planners. A belligerent Scotland could force Britain to remove the submarines quickly, without the necessary infrastructure in place to support them immediately available elsewhere—except perhaps the U.S. or France—and not in England for at least several years. This may result in the potential unilateral disarmament of the country’s nuclear capability, a move that would not go down well with NATO partners and probably the European Union—two organizations that Scotland aspires to join.

Nonetheless, the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) own rhetoric on the Tridents is clear. Its white paper on Scottish independence says they are an “affront to basic decency with its indiscriminate and inhuman destructive power.”

The SNP argues that by being independent, there will be no need for the country to be involved in the development of the Trident successor program, a project with an expected price tag of 100 billion ($161 billion) over the next 20-30 years.

The nationalists also claim that while Scotland currently pays in 10% of the current U.K. defense budget of 34 billion, only around half comes back. They also assert that without contributions from Scotland, the Defense Ministry could see 13 billion less in its 160 billion equipment budget for the next decade.

The 2010 SDSR had the effect of closing two major air bases: RAF Kinloss, previously home to the Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft; and RAF Leuchars, an air defense base. This role has been transferred to RAF Lossiemouth in Moray. Kinloss is now an Army barracks and Leuchars may go the same way, receiving troops returning from Germany in the coming years. Furthermore, the Royal Navy bases none of its surface ships in Scotland. These changes have painted a dim view of the U.K. seat of government for Scottish voters. The Defense Ministry has argued that nearly 10% of regular armed forces personnel will be based in Scotland by 2020.

But a yes vote could also prompt Scotland’s small but important defense industry to move out as well. Shipbuilding, which employs 5,000 there, would be most at risk, particularly as current British government policy is to produce ships and submarines for the Royal Navy using national industry. The Aircraft Carrier Alliance is building the U.K.’s two new ships at Rosyth near Edinburgh. But shipbuilders are likely to feel they have to move south in order to support the -Navy’s needs.

The SNP says it should inherit a share of the U.K.’s defense assets to help it establish a defense force. Based on population, the party says Scotland’s share would be worth about 7.8 billion and would include at least 12-16 Eurofighter Typhoons for air defense, and six Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules to form a tactical air transport squadron. It would also get a fleet of helicopters. This is likely to be the subject of significant negotiation, however.

A no vote will retain the union and allow defense planners to breathe a sigh of relief, but further devolution for the Scottish Parliament may prompt questions about whether its politicians should still have a say in the affairs of its neighbors, while counterparts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have no say about Scotland. This issue, dubbed the “West Lothian question” could invoke more transfers of power in other parts of the country.

If the people vote yes, the SNP intends to have a constitutional platform in place for Scotland to become independent by March 2016.
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Old September 16th, 2014   #88
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I wonder what a "yes" vote will mean for the rUK with regards to the F-35 acquisition numbers.
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Old September 16th, 2014   #89
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Do your two eldest still live at home, or do they have places of their own?
They both live at home, Eldest shovels the proverbial, as he works as a stable hand, which is basic wages. Middle child has just started college, her 2nd course since she left school, hasn't worked a day in her puff & relies on us for funding of some of her social life & 75% of her travel.

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Something else to potentially see if you can dig into, is the economic impact the defence and financial sectors have on the Scottish economy, and what percentage of those sectors would remain following a split. They might be a bit less enthused if they are told outright that independence could cost mum & dad their jobs/careers, or require moving.
The last time it was quoted to me, based on Scottish Govt. facts, it's either for Every single job that is directly defence/aerospace manufacturing related (circa 25,000), there are approx 7 additional people whom benefit / are employed(in the service / supply chain, in the corner shops & supermarkets, in the car repair garages, etc.). That's 175k people, out of 6 million, although the figure should be adjusted to more like 4.5 million (to remove children & the retired - i.e. those eligible to work). That's no lump of chump change.

The reality of those figures is that there's about 4 people for every one of those 175,000 that are subsequently employed, or are supported. No wonder there's rumours circulating that by the time those employers & businesses have moved on in the 2 year negotiation period, there will be approx 1/4 million people unemployed in the West of Scotland.

Meanwhile, 'the great unwashed', whom rely on state payouts, but are happy to run up & down the street, waving YES flags, really haven't sat down & worked out that if these 175,000 jobs go, that's 175,000 people who aren't paying taxes & putting money back into the country, to keep them in the lifestyles they have grown accustomed to !

As for my children, it's been explained to them what will happen if there's a YES vote (both me n the wife loosing the job, having to sell the house & probably move South to chase a job). NEITHER is non-plus'd about it. The eldest reckons he'd probably loose his job too, as people won't spend money on keeping pet horses, if they don't have jobs, and the middle child still has that imagination of a 5 year old, that everything will be rosy in the garden & Scotland WILL be better.

Rant over...
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Old September 16th, 2014   #90
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there are a lot of people in here who have blood or ancestors from the north. even half my lot are scots, surname is scottish and the penny pinching side of the family is deeply ingrained...

if we were there we'd be voting No by a golden mile.....
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