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Scottish Independence

This is a discussion on Scottish Independence within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by swerve Oh, it's true. One of the results of the success of the Scottish financial industry is ...


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Old September 12th, 2014   #31
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Oh, it's true. One of the results of the success of the Scottish financial industry is that the biggest firms do much more business in the rest of the UK than in Scotland, because they've outgrown the Scottish market, & think that it would make sense to move to where their business is if Scotland split off. And one of them is mostly owned by the UK government, as a result of the 2008 crash.
The statement isn't entirely true. They haven't outgrown the market at all.

RBS for example through acquisitions over the last 20years has become an English/British centric investment bank with a HQ (Gogarburn) in Edin. Halifax/BOS/ Llyods are effectively the same, with the consolidations and mergers over the GFC implications. Apart from the asset mgrs the staff are predominately in the rUk.

The investment banks and some asset mgrs (post investment bank transitions) are moving because funding operations and ALL trading is conducted in City of London and the potential risks (i.e. currency, regulatory, ratings specific and political) are too high w.r.t the 'Yes' campaign uncertainties and the future mkts.

The actual moves themselves will be relatively seamless internally... If they happen - I still think 'No' gets it 60-40 (ish)

I know this, as this is my industry.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #32
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Growth through acquisitions & mergers, not organic growth, but growth nevertheless.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #33
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Oh, it's true. One of the results of the success of the Scottish financial industry is that the biggest firms do much more business in the rest of the UK than in Scotland, because they've outgrown the Scottish market, & think that it would make sense to move to where their business is if Scotland split off. And one of them is mostly owned by the UK government, as a result of the 2008 crash.

What Salmond & the Yes campaign don't understand is that the Scottish financial industry is now like Scottish shipbuilding: a UK industry that happens to be based in Scotland, not a Scottish industry.

I would expect Selex to move its Scottish radar business south as fast as it could, as well, to keep its preferential access to the UK military market.
As the 1995 Quebec referendum approached, many firms announced publicly that they would leave Quebec in the event of a "yes" vote. This certainly brought pressure to bear on the undecided. Firms in Scotland at risk due to a "yes" vote should all be making similar annoucements.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #34
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Growth through acquisitions & mergers, not organic growth, but growth nevertheless.
That's cheating.

RBS acquisitons, were and still are a joke. The ABN deal (growth as you call it) is still unbelievable by today's standards. RBS only successful growth story was Natwest back in late 90's early part of this century.

The only aspect that the Scotland can truly call a 'success' in the financial services industry are the Asset/ Pension fund managers - and there are a few, with reasonable AUM.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #35
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There's a law in the EU which states that a bank must headquarter itself in the country where it does most business.

That means the vast majority - if not all - of banks in Scotland will move south.

As will a huge amount of jobs especially highly skilled jobs which rely on the UK.

Nick, I think Standard Life is one of those and they're going to move south too.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #36
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There's a law in the EU which states that a bank must headquarter itself in the country where it does most business.

That means the vast majority - if not all - of banks in Scotland will move south.

As will a huge amount of jobs especially highly skilled jobs which rely on the UK.

Nick, I think Standard Life is one of those and they're going to move south too.
There are loopholes in that piece of EU legislation, but you're correct.

Standard Life is a big piece if they decide, so too Scottish Widows (effectively Lloyds banner). Aberdeen AM, the largest mgr that will stay in all likelihood. CEO is backing 'Yes'.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #37
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Lots of the news coming from London about the possible independence of Scotland is just scaremongering.
I got family myself in Edinburgh and you should hear them about the policies set by London, which favors "south" in every regard.
This has been going on for years, London promising all kinds of powers and changes, but so far none have been given...

Yeah little teasers like a kid gets a piece of candy... But for the Scots there is nothing to gain, losing their jobs, losing health-care, losing education programs and so on.
This is not just some tiny problem, its about the fact that Scots always have been outsiders and always have been handled as such.

England has something to lose here as the Scots pay the majority part of the taxes levied over the UK's population people need to realize that a vast part of the British economy comes from the Scots, and London tries to scaremonger the Scots.

Tell a Scot what he cannot do, and see what he will do...lol.

I am sure both sides will suffer from this, but i am also sure that Scotland will be a success if the vote remains yes, there is lots of talk about the Scottish cash flow and sustainability with declining north sea oil revenues however fact is that this money goes to London and Scotland does not see a penny of it.
Many years the Scots have been asking for changes, and years on end they have been promised that changes would come.
Today many Scottish people lost their jobs and lost options that the "south" still has.
Family of mine has a own company and there are tax rules and other shady policies that only apply to the Scottish while the south does not have these "restrictions & Policies" So ask yourself the question: Why would Scotland NOT be independent?
If London would handle them in exactly the same way as they would handle the rest of the UK then things would be different and the Scots would be "happy" to remain in the union.

And all these big companies that claim they will move to London if Scotland becomes independent is just scaremongering by London lobby as has been explained on many many news outlets and has been explained by many analysts.
If London is right, then Scotland will become a western third world country..really?
Thats just bull...
In terms of military and defense agreements there is so much for both at stake that i am sure that there will be some sort of agreement that suit both, Diplomacy wise the EU might have a problem with Scotland but this will sort itself over time, as Scotland with its vast resources will be to important to ignore.

The real issue will be London as England will have to do some serious soul searching, because their economy will pretty much be dropping down a big chunk and with the economic crisis still going on London will be begging for the Scots to stay.

That said given the first hand info i got from family, if i where Scottish i would vote yes with a passion.
But ill guess time will tell who is right and wrong.
Right now both sides are doing their part in propaganda and scaremongering.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #38
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Yes. it's just 'scaremongering' that all of these companies representing many different areas of industry voicing big concerns over their operations in Scotland in either relocation (by law), jobs or price rises.

That's what it is, them crafty English people. Not legitimate concerns from companies who have one priority - make as much money as possible.

This morning there was another half dozen (this time telecoms) saying their prices in Scotland will go up.

You mean those 'vast' resources of oil which the top oil businessman (said by both Cameron and Salmond) says the predictions coming from the SNP are severely inflated (and will be all but gone by 2050) and that claim has been backed by both Shell and BP? You mean *those* vast reserves?
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Old September 12th, 2014   #39
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....
England has something to lose here as the Scots pay the majority part of the taxes levied over the UK's population ...
What? Do you really believe that Scotland (8% of the UK's population) pays over half the taxes? Even Salmond doesn't claim that. It'd require Scotland to be the richest country in the world per head, & by a big margin. It'd also make England more lightly taxed than any developed country. Nope, it's nonsense.

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In terms of military and defense agreements there is so much for both at stake that i am sure that there will be some sort of agreement that suit both,
Only if Scotland agrees to accept different terms than those Salmond is promising. What he's saying is that NATO will change its own rules, just for Scotland: that Scotland will be a special case, privileged over all other NATO members. Really? Tell me, do you really think that any sane person believes that?

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Diplomacy wise the EU might have a problem with Scotland but this will sort itself over time, as Scotland with its vast resources will be to important to ignore.
You're arguing that Scotland, with 1% of the population of the EU, is so crucial to the existence of the European Union that it'll be able to dictate its own terms for joining, & the EU will make special rules for Scotland - & only Scotland - to keep it in the EU. Just like you're arguing for NATO.

Try thinking for a moment, instead of living in some tartan dream. What happens to the EU if Scotland drops out of it? Well, not much. Scotland will still sell oil & gas, & at the same price. The infrastructure is in place, & the nearest customers are the cheapest to supply. Scotland would get less money selling to anyone else. And the same for everything else.

It's a fantasy. Denying it isn't scaremongering, it's honesty & truthfulness.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #40
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Yes. it's just 'scaremongering' that all of these companies representing many different areas of industry voicing big concerns over their operations in Scotland in either relocation (by law), jobs or price rises.

That's what it is, them crafty English people. Not legitimate concerns from companies who have one priority - make as much money as possible.

This morning there was another half dozen (this time telecoms) saying their prices in Scotland will go up.

You mean those 'vast' resources of oil which the top oil businessman (said by both Cameron and Salmond) says the predictions coming from the SNP are severely inflated and that claim has been backed by both Shell and BP? You mean *those* vast reserves?
Hmm what about Scottish offshore and Wind energy options? How about the fact that Scotland could be a regional powerhouse in energy exporting?
Shell and BP have agreements with London, which benefit London, but when Scotland becomes independent then things will have to be changed ill guess.
Keep in mind many Scots do believe that they are being robbed of their resources, so agreements need to be changed where more sides will benefit, not just London...

I am sure companies have legit concerns and thats something that has to be ironed out, keep in mind Rome has not been build in 5 days, so yes there are lots of doubts, questions and what iffs.
But its ridicule to say the world will end if the Scottish become independent.

Down the line London's policies with regards to the north have backfired for years now and how these things are going to be solved is up to London and the Scottish people, either by changing and remaining in the union, or either by breaking free from the union. That is what is has come to...
But my point is that those so called "crafty" Englishman forget that benefits have to go both ways and right now the North is being told they cannot have the pound, they cannot have this they cannot have that.... So why would they share the massive UK debt? Ill guess London cannot have that then.
Down the line London and Scotland need to see eye to eye and stick to promises made, this would save the union.
But as long London is trowing sand and candy towards the Scottish people they will want to break free. And it does not take a genius to say that there will be huge problems to solve on both sides, and yes the industry has a big concern and voice here and rightfully so...
But its not the end and its not unsolvable, it just needs time and a good diplomatic talk where all sides see eye to eye.
But hollow promises by the British parliament is just a laughing stock.
Anyway there will be people voting yes, there will be NO voters and people in the middle, and regardless how this will end, London has a wake up call and will have to change their policies and internal regulations.
And thats the real issue here, ask any Scot if they agree to many of the UK's policies and internal laws... and you will see who they respond.
That said London's industrial lobby will work overtime to play both sides... So lots of things are unclear about how this is going to end, don't you think?
So that being said if the cards are being played right then the Scottish do have something to gain, and give them one good reason not to play their cards?
Public opinion says it all i think...
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Old September 12th, 2014   #41
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What? Do you really believe that Scotland (8% of the UK's population) pays over half the taxes? Even Salmond doesn't claim that. It'd require Scotland to be the richest country in the world per head, & by a big margin. It'd also make England more lightly taxed than any developed country. Nope, it's nonsense.

Yeah poor word choice of mine... let me explain.
Maybe you need a good chat with a Scottish person who owns a company..
Maybe you need to ask them what benefits do apply to them and which are not, then you need to put those "benefits" next to the benefits the south has and you will see the differences. That said what i mean with taxes is that Scotland is bringing a large chunk of the London cash-flow all together not just taxes...You have to view it across the whole spectrum. Or would you say that the revenues generated by Scotland are not as significant? It would be more then enough to sustain them for many many years to come as Scotland has enough options to build a good economy.



Only if Scotland agrees to accept different terms than those Salmond is promising. What he's saying is that NATO will change its own rules, just for Scotland: that Scotland will be a special case, privileged over all other NATO members. Really? Tell me, do you really think that any sane person believes that?

I would not know... and it remains to be seen how the EU/NATO is going to react on it. But does it matter what i think? or what you think for that matter? As it seems there are a few million Scots thinking exactly that...But i was talking economy wise.

You're arguing that Scotland, with 1% of the population of the EU, is so crucial to the existence of the European Union that it'll be able to dictate its own terms for joining, & the EU will make special rules for Scotland - & only Scotland - to keep it in the EU. Just like you're arguing for NATO.

Well Scotland is not that vital, but you seem to forget that oil & gas & wind energy is a massive card to play, not to mention the vast offshore options Scotland has. As i said i was talking economy wise. As NATO and EU ambitions are imo to far fetched for the time being, maybe in time
Down the line this will make them to big to ignore.
So even if the EU does refuse them, it would not be the end of Scotland. But then again ALL the industry will leave Scotland, all the natural resources will be shipped out, water will dry up all all the people will suddenly lose their jobs and the whole world comes crashing down...
No really? ..you kidding me right?
If Scotland goes independent and if things are being worked out properly then overtime NATO and the EU might change their mindset in regards to Scotland.
Yet you have to argue if Scotland would want the EU and would want NATO given the fact that Scotland has no global ambitions, The like to get rid of London, So why change one evil for another called Brussels?


Try thinking for a moment, instead of living in some tartan dream. What happens to the EU if Scotland drops out of it? Well, not much. Scotland will still sell oil & gas, & at the same price. The infrastructure is in place, & the nearest customers are the cheapest to supply. Scotland would get less money selling to anyone else. And the same for everything else.
It's a fantasy. Denying it isn't scaremongering, it's honesty & truthfulness.

Well i am not living a Tartan dream, but ill guess that the Scottish do then because propaganda and scaremongering a side, there is a reason why people want to break up the union and by doing so there will be benefits and there will be downsides, and yes London does have something to lose here, as i do not believe that Scotland would care much for the EU and NATO.
Now i am not Scottish so i would not know how deep things really go, but some of the things you claim are just not true... or would you say that all those 8% are lost their minds? Are on crack and living a fantasy? Try thinking...
As i said i am not a Scottish person yet i have family there, and we talk alot about this whole thing, and down the line most posters are right, everything is being colored to bright and sound to good to be true.
This is all correct, it a big step and as such there will be gains and there will be losses.
But giving the idea that its a fantasy or a tartan dream is just BS...
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Old September 12th, 2014   #42
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I would like to add a article from the guardian regarding the energy sector in Scotland.
How much North Sea oil revenue can an independent Scotland extract? | Politics | theguardian.com

I think that it sums it all up pretty much. Ill guess that any figure given by the article combined with a favorable tax regime could help Scotland achieve enough to build up a solid economy..
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Old September 12th, 2014   #43
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I think that it sums it all up pretty much. Ill guess that any figure given by the article combined with a favorable tax regime could help Scotland achieve enough to build up a solid economy..
There's a lot of guess work and optimism involved, but even if you ignore all of that then you still have some problems:
- A lack of diversity in the economy (way too much reliance on one resource)
- Therefore a heightened need to be able to defend it
- Basing the countries future on a single FINITE resource

Unless I'm missing something, Scotland is a small country in both area and population. I'm struggling to see any booming industries to come out of all this.

I hope that the Scots wake up and vote NO. Not for my benefit - I'm a long way removed - but because a lot of people will hurt from a break up.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #44
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There's a lot of guess work and optimism involved, but even if you ignore all of that then you still have some problems:
- A lack of diversity in the economy (way too much reliance on one resource)
- Therefore a heightened need to be able to defend it
- Basing the countries future on a single FINITE resource
And EU membership (wanting to have more autonomy and yet join the EU don't really go hand in hand), NATO membership, currency, defence, economy, all areas which have yet to be discussed with any sort of basis in truth and reality.

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Unless I'm missing something, Scotland is a small country in both area and population. I'm struggling to see any booming industries to come out of all this.
Indeed, significant areas have already indicated their willingness to either leave Scotland or create seperate companies in Scotland which would mean increased prices to cover the overhead.
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Old September 12th, 2014   #45
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So solar and wind count as 'national resources' now? Rather than just a resource available to be harnessed by everyone else on the planet?

Nice bit of warped logic there.

Robbed of their resources? That's a massive DERP right there. Nothing like a bit of blind 'they took our jerbs!' to add things into the mix with no basis in the real world.



But you just said it was all scaremongering, that's what you literally just said, said it was something being orchestrated by London.

But now you say that *isn't* the case, that the idea its scaremongering is bullsh!t and that rather than it being 'those sneaky southerners' that the business community might actually do what's best for their business and their customers where possible?

Lots of doubt and what ifs, that's for sure, it would be nice if Salmond would actually respond to it than saying they're lies, bluffs and never going to happen. That's severe pandering to the dumbest of the population if ever i've seen it.



You mean those policies being brought in from the 13 year long Labour government which Scotland overwhelmingly supported in every General Election? They're angry at their own elected sponges for screwing them over?

Or is it conveniently since the Coalition government in 2010 that everything went wrong?

That's some great logic right there.



Again, policies and promises being made from 1997 - 2010 from a Labour Government which Scotland actively put into office.

Or - again - was it all the Coalition?



Yes, all of those you are completely fairly made.

The issue is that the information you're being fed from that imbecile that is Scotland's First Minister is so deluded and divorced from reality that the people making the decision are not basing it on facts. They are basing it on a fantasy, a fantasy which - according to Salmond - everyone will submit to Scotland, everything will be great, nobody will oppose whatever we do and it'll all be grand.

That's b*llocks.


London's industrial lobby? The same people you say are making all the scaremongering then swiftly agreed that it wasn't scaremongering in the first place?

Not really, it's pretty clear what the result is going to be, you can see industry making its choice what side of the fence it wants to sit behind and giving indications (i.e increasing cost warnings) about what it will do in response.

It's actually pretty clear, really.

As for the public opinion, down to the 'No' campaign by 6 points now isn't it?
Maybe so, But then again i am not claiming i am right.
There are multiple sides bringing out information, and i am sure that both sides have valid points to make. But even if both sides spread lies and doubt, fact remains that there is a vote with a simple yes and a simple no, and loads of people are voting yes and loads will vote no.
Imo the issue is not what you or me think, the issue is what London does and what Scotland does and how this will play down.
All rhetoric a side people are being fed up and thats the big case here.
And IMHO both London and Scotland in terms of Government have screwed up in a major way.
The union is not just being attacked from the outside, its being broken from the inside out by the very people that "value" the union.

Ill guess the big question is can Scotland become successfully independent if they wish so? And while it might be a hard job to accomplish it seems that all the ingredients are there to do so.
So Salmond can claim his wildest dreams, who is there to proof him right or wrong?
You? Me? Public opinion? I am sure its not all smack talk.
Same goes for the British leaders, they will feed any info to the media that would make a yes vote look bad, in the same way as Salmond does his best to make a yes vote look good.
Both sides are spreading rubbish and both sides have valid points, but one question remains: Give London one good reason to actually say that Salmond has some valid points? Knowing that if Scotland breaks away that the rest of the UK will suffer arguably the biggest loss.

And its not about me being right or wrong, it does not matter.
if you are right and this Salmond guy is full of shit, then the only way he can do that is because London lets him... So seeing eye to eye and making hard agreements between both sides seems to be the only solution that will save the union in the long term, because as long both sides do not see eye to eye you will see another referendum in some years assuming this one fails.

And given the huge amount of voters who seem to swing to the yes vote, would that not be reason enough for London to start doing some thinking on their own?
Its easy to say that Salmond and his idea's might be based on a fairy tail and maybe you are right, maybe this is all rubbish.
But from a Scottish pov this rubbish seems to be more valid then Londons it "rubbish".

But hey look at the bright side... this issue is going on for what? 200/300 years now?
Scots will be Scots and English will be English and as such this was bound to happen sooner or later...

And there is nothing anyone of us here on DT are going to change about that.
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