darkmatter5463@ said:
Do you think No. Korea will launch their missle? I do. Also I think the United States will attempt to shoot this missle down if No. Korea launches their missle. darkmatter5463
Due to the inherant difficulty, danger, and damage involved in removing fuel from the missile once it has been filled, I'd say the likelyhood for a launch is greatly increased.
To stand down from a test launch will cost the North a great deal of money, and set back to their research program. Further, it would result in a great deal of domestic embarrasment for the government, who have already told the population to expect a launch. The only reason they have not yet done so, is likely due to bad weater at the launch site.
But then again, if the North does launch the missile, it is quite likely that the US would attempt to intercept it in a very public display of their missile defense system. If successful, this would greatly increase further funding and development of the ABM shield and subject the North to wide-spread international scorn and embarrassment.
If unsuccessful, the damage to the missile defence program would probably be disasterous, and would likely mean the end of the program in the near future.
If I'm not mistaken, the land-based ABM component has had a great deal of failures to date. But the sea-based Standard-missile component has shown remarkable success lately, in both boost-phase, and mid-course interceptions.
Basically, the US will have multiple attempts to shoot the NK missile down, and could very well do so with the assets it already has available in the Sea of Japan, and the Pacific Ocean. The land based system may not even get a chance, if one of the Aegis cruisers already on the scene gets the first shot.
But I am unsure as to whether or not the ships in question are equipped with the RIM-161 BMD missile. According to Global Security, the Navy began equipping it's Aegis ships with the weapon system in late 2004.
So it is possible that the ships in the area are currently loaded with the production-model BMD missile. If they are normally based in the Sea of Japan, I'd say it's quite likely that they have forseen this threat and have had some time to prepare for it.