The PLA of 2020: a match for the US military?

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USAalltheway725

Banned Member
Hello all I am new to this forum. I have recently retired from my job at USDoD where I used to work as one out of many analyzing the potential military and geopolitical threat from China in the near future. I got my PhD. in foreign affairs and geopolitics after I served as a logistics staffer in the US Navy for 6 years. So obviously you can see why I am interested in this forum.

Anyway, I wanted your opinions on whether the Chinese military of 2020 would be a match for any forces the US military could put in the region. Consider this to be a non-nuclear hi-tech conventional conflict.

The Chinese air force would probably consist of mostly J-10s, Su-27s, MiG-29s, and Tu-22 Backfires. It would have home court advantage as it would be protected by its S-300s and S-400s near the coast and its air bases would be nearer to area of conflict. Obviously PLAAF training would not match US training in effectiveness, but their equipment and numbers would be comparable.

The Chinese navy would probably consist of many Soviet built and Russian-inspired/copied designs. Also, there would be a heavy emphasis on submarine warfare. Both China's surface ships of missile-guided cruisers and destroyers would have a good combination of ASMs that would challenge the US CBG. Though their ASW capability would be limited, they would have a sizeable submarine fleet of Oscars, Kilos, and indigenous designs.

The Chinese army would probably consist of mostly Type-99s, and would be a leaner meaner force than you see today. Training would be improved, as well as force projection and supply capabilities. Number of APCs would increase as would number of capable officers. (Right now the PLA would qualify as more of a militia than an army because it is no large and uncontrollable.)

Anyway, consider this against any forces the US could put in the region and compare. Your opinions would be much appreciated.
 

rjmaz1

New Member
US defence spending is nearly at the lowest its been for 80 years.

Its spending only 3.2% of its gross product yet its military budget is the same as every other countries military budget added together.

During world war 2 the US spent 37% and 38% of its gross product. If war with china was eminent the US would allocate 20+% and would then see the military budget rise to over 3000 billion dollars per year, currently at under 500 billion. This would see every soldier, sailer, pilot and reserve called to arms. It would also see every aircraft, ship and ammunition manufacturing plant hitting full scale production creating a million jobs in a few months.

At 3000 billion dollars the US military spending would be over 50 times that of china's.

The US would have every carrier around the coast and would hammer china with cruise missiles. B-2's bombers would come into china from the north or south while JSF's operating from carriers and F-22's based in japan will take out all the SAM's. The front door would get knocked down just as quick as Dessert Storm just that the US would need 10 times as much initial force.

China do not yet have any missiles that can reach the US and would most likely be shot down anyway. If china launched a nuclear ICBM and one got through the nets then the US could kill 500 million chinesse within an hour if it wanted too.

Nuclear weapons now are much cleaner and have very little fallout so effecting surrounding countries would not be a problem.

The US would rather prefer a nuclear attack and then let one of the missile slip through defence into a non populated area. Then hit china by only pressing a button, much cheaper and quicker. You'd hit them with 100 missiles at once, no point hitting them with 10 at a time as they'd surrender after the first 10.
 
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dioditto

New Member
USAalltheway725 : "(Right now the PLA would qualify as more of a militia than an army because it is no large and uncontrollable.)"

I find it hard to believe you got a PHD and work for the DOD as an analyst. Your sentence doesn't even make sense. And if you really did work for DOD as analyst for 20 years (AND ONLY RECENTLY RETIRED), why would you even bother asking such question in a public forum when common people like us with no access to intel to even answer your question. You should have pretty up to date knowledge than all of us combine and more. And yet, your analysis is rudimentary at best, no more than a average high school student who is interested in the subject.

Your analysis is as good as rjmaz1, but I do not blame him since he does not claim to have work for DoD as analyst specialising in this particular area, and does not claim to have PHD. His argument is infantile at best, but that is no fault of him since he does not have 20 years of working with DoD with advanced knowledge of weapon systems, tactics and strategies and top secret intelligence to back it up.


If this is the extent of knowledge of a recently retired USDoD analyst who SPECIALISED IN ANALYSING CHINA, I want to ask you which university gave you the degree, and how did you even get to work for DOD as analyst? I would seriously be worry about the failure of US educational standard first before I worry about China.
 
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tphuang

Super Moderator
allright, I'm closing this thread. USAAllTheWay was banned on SDF for starting similar threads and lying about working for DoD as an analyst (clearly, he is not). I will let Webmaster decide from this point on.
 
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