NZDF 2% GDP increase thread, what would it look like?

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t68

Well-Known Member
Why do some people believe that NZ can not afford defence equipment? Politicians say that line because it suits them. The fact is the NZ economy is doing better than most countries, our govt debt is low compared to most comparable countries. We could afford 2% GDP funding relatively easily.*
If our politicians wanted to support the NZDF with increased finances, the country can afford it. The politicians choose not to. This finance argument is just a distraction in my view.*
NZ is not the same country economically as it was in the 80s or 90s.
Ngati, the cost you put up for standing up an air combat capability would be 1 or 2 years predicted increase in Govt revenue. A sustainable plan could be put in place over 10 years to increase funding to afford this and other capabilities. I personally would support this to a level of 2% GDP +/- a little.
It certainly would be an interesting exersise to see what 2% could do for NZDF.

Considering the future core element of the NZDF will revolve around a purple JATF, a 2% budget may have to happen if NZ wants to be able to sustain that force long term,but as a JATF won't deploy 24/7 but the NCF is expected to I believe should be the priority should be expending it to 4x Frigates. With 2% sustained over a twenty year time frame I think this would be achievable,
RNZN,
4x Type 26
2x RSS Joint Multi-Mission Ship
1x Galicia LPD
2x Aegir 18A oilers
6x Damen 2400 OPV

RNZAF,
9x P8 Poseidon
4x BAMS MQ-4C Triton
12xA400M
6x C295
2x A330 MRTT
12x NH-90
8x NFH (ASW)
8x AH-64E Longbow
6x CH-47
8x Super King Air (3x MC-12W Liberty ISR variant)

NH-90 & CH-47 should be capabile of performing a Battalion lift

Army
2x light infantry Battalions
1x motorised infantry Battalions
2x Armoured Regiments (NZLAV)
1x Armoured Squadron ( Leopard 2A6 plus support infratsture)
1x field Artillery Regiment (expanded to 3x Battery of M777
 
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vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
It certainly would be an interesting exersise to see what 2% could do for NZDF.

Considering the future core element of the NZDF will revolve around a purple JATF, a 2% budget may have to happen if NZ wants to be able to sustain that force long term,but as a JATF won't deploy 24/7 but the NCF is expected to I believe should be the priority should be expending it to 4x Frigates. With 2% sustained over a twenty year time frame I think this would be achievable,
RNZN,
4x Type 26
2x RSS Joint Multi-Mission Ship
1x Galicia LPD
2x Aegir 18A oilers
6x Damen 2400 OPV

RNZAF,
9x P8 Poseidon
4x BAMS MQ-4C Triton
12xA400M
6x C295
2x A330 MRTT
12x NH-90
8x NFH (ASW)
8x AH-64E Longbow
6x CH-47
8x Super King Air (3x MC-12W Liberty ISR variant)

NH-90 & CH-47 should be capabile of performing a Battalion lift

Army
2x light infantry Battalions
1x motorised infantry Battalions
2x Armoured Regiments (NZLAV)
1x Armoured Squadron ( Leopard 2A6 plus support infratsture)
1x field Artillery Regiment (expanded to 3x Battery of M777
Doubling the frigate fleet with ships twice the size of the ones they are replacing, tripling the OPV fleet with ships 25% larger then ones they replacing, Doubling the AOR fleet with ships twice the size of the one's they are replacing and increasing the tonnage of the amphibious fleet by over 270% from 9,000t to 34,000t..

The chooper number's are quite doable, In fact not far off from what is already on order or already in service, increasing the ASW fleet by 50% also not so hard but 12 x A400M's??? They are twice the cost of a new C-130 which alone would make it a tough buy to get 1 for 1 replacement with the RNZAF's 5 C-130H's, But to do that and get another 7??

Might a suggest we follow the same principle here as on the RAN dreamland thread in that it should actually be something realistically attainable? Here we have the benefit of a set budget figure of 2%.. Let's use it properly.

Regards, Matthew.
 

Cadredave

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
FFS !!!!!! This forum is going down hill fast, pathetic
Yep a three fold increase of combat power for the teeth arms in the Army and no thought given to the Logistical units who would have to support all that combat power. :mad3
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #6
Yep a three fold increase of combat power for the teeth arms in the Army and no thought given to the Logistical units who would have to support all that combat power. :mad3
Yes I did think about them but for the thread, but tried to keep it to thing that will be replaced in the twenty year time frame as to the original post
 

Cadredave

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Yes I did think about them but for the thread, but tried to keep it to thing that will be replaced in the twenty year time frame as to the original post
Really

lets look at your Army Teeth arms structure shall we,

2 x Light Infantry Bn - no change to current structure BAU

1 x Motorised Bn - Mounted on what platform? who rotates during the RTS?, do you envision 3 X Bn worth of vehicles to support that orphan Bn or do they deploy only as Rifle Coys?.

2 x Regt of LAV - for what purpose? how many LAVs, do you intend for them to have C3I, mortar, Ambulance, recovery, CSS based on the same hull? - we can barely man the current LAV Regt as it stands CSS can barely keep up with them with the new B Class vehicles brought from MAN they had shit show supplying them in MOGs..

1 x Leo 2A6 Sqn plus support infrastructure? - again 3 Sqn worth of tanks to support RTS or are you saying they would deploy only as troops?, what about CSS recovery, Bridging, Armd Engr, CSS need to be track mounted what about CS requirements ie SPG you need gunners who can keep up with the tanks, last but not least what will the Infantry in support be mounted on again Armd infantry in tracks?

I'm not even going into the 16 Fd Regt manning, you didn't think this post thru if this is based on the JATF one simple questions jumps out at me? why do we need Leo 2A6 in the Pacific? and so many Infantry mounted AFV.

Don't bother to reply as I wont be answering any more posts in this thread. FFS

Logistics wins wars
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It certainly would be an interesting exersise to see what 2% could do for NZDF.

Considering the future core element of the NZDF will revolve around a purple JATF, a 2% budget may have to happen if NZ wants to be able to sustain that force long term,but as a JATF won't deploy 24/7 but the NCF is expected to I believe should be the priority should be expending it to 4x Frigates. With 2% sustained over a twenty year time frame I think this would be achievable,
RNZN,
4x Type 26
2x RSS Joint Multi-Mission Ship
1x Galicia LPD
2x Aegir 18A oilers
6x Damen 2400 OPV

RNZAF,
9x P8 Poseidon
4x BAMS MQ-4C Triton
12xA400M
6x C295
2x A330 MRTT
12x NH-90
8x NFH (ASW)
8x AH-64E Longbow
6x CH-47
8x Super King Air (3x MC-12W Liberty ISR variant)

NH-90 & CH-47 should be capabile of performing a Battalion lift

Army
2x light infantry Battalions
1x motorised infantry Battalions
2x Armoured Regiments (NZLAV)
1x Armoured Squadron ( Leopard 2A6 plus support infratsture)
1x field Artillery Regiment (expanded to 3x Battery of M777
FFS what are smoking? This is bull$hit. You have been around long enough to have an understanding of the issues that face NZDF and an aside, 2% GDP would not even fund that let alone the ongoing costs. Get real boy.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #9
Doubling the frigate fleet with ships twice the size of the ones they are replacing, tripling the OPV fleet with ships 25% larger then ones they replacing, Doubling the AOR fleet with ships twice the size of the one's they are replacing and increasing the tonnage of the amphibious fleet by over 270% from 9,000t to 34,000t..

The chooper number's are quite doable, In fact not far off from what is already on order or already in service, increasing the ASW fleet by 50% also not so hard but 12 x A400M's??? They are twice the cost of a new C-130 which alone would make it a tough buy to get 1 for 1 replacement with the RNZAF's 5 C-130H's, But to do that and get another 7??

Might a suggest we follow the same principle here as on the RAN dreamland thread in that it should actually be something realistically attainable? Here we have the benefit of a set budget figure of 2%.. Let's use it properly.

Regards, Matthew.

It's over a twenty plus year period not five or less, some of the item either need replacing within the next five years or at least ordered in that time frame. The original Anzac deal was for 2x plus an option for 2x units that's not disputed there is the need for them it's just up to funding,and the does not mean the have to have four built in sequence.

There is talks of adding extra OPV now and mothballing the IPV, the Damen 2400 OPV can also be used for survey & diving.

5x C130 is not sustainable over the long term as we have seen they are worked hard in Kiwi colours, again they all don't have to be purchased in one go, staggering the buy will also help with block obsolesce issues as well.

JATF out to 2035 is not going to work with Canterbury alone on sustainable issues alone, we have to have the raise train and sustain construct, JAFT is going to have to be able to sustain themselves for short periods until either an air-bridge is set up or additional sealift arrives. A single JMMS can't do it unless you want to change the the AOR for something like HNLMS Karel Doorman (A833) which can do both wet and dry stores as well as bring additional troops and vehicles.

Army contribution to the JATF is a combined arms team and element from all regiments from light infantry to Amour both LAV and MBT depending on the task at hand, the motorised element does not need to move as a Battalion (Bushmaster 12-14 units per rifle company) and a Squadron's (14x MBT) worth of Leopards won't move with the JATF but a troop (4xMBT) can provide support for either light infantry or motorised infantry for either heavy direct or indirect fire support against entrenched or hardened obstacle's.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #10
FFS what are smoking? This is bull$hit. You have been around long enough to have an understanding of the issues that face NZDF and an aside, 2% GDP would not even fund that let alone the ongoing costs. Get real boy.
*
I don't smoke, but have been known to polish off a bottle of Wild Turkey every now and then.


From what I can see is the NZDF budget is running at approx 1.5% of GDP or just shy of 3B NZD and has been as low as 1.1% in recent years, increasing the budget depending on the economy should increase it by about 1b NZD plus per year every year for the next 20 years, and some of the major equipment should already be taken into account under the forward estimates unless you intend to hollow out the force further

Statistics for NZ GDP had you running at about 231B NZD and with economic growth at approx 3.5%, me thinks if the politicians wanted to find another 1to 1.5B NZD per year I think it achievable only real problem I foresee is the exchange rates at the time will play a big factor
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
It's over a twenty plus year period not five or less, some of the item either need replacing within the next five years or at least ordered in that time frame. The original Anzac deal was for 2x plus an option for 2x units that's not disputed there is the need for them it's just up to funding,and the does not mean the have to have four built in sequence.

There is talks of adding extra OPV now and mothballing the IPV, the Damen 2400 OPV can also be used for survey & diving.

5x C130 is not sustainable over the long term as we have seen they are worked hard in Kiwi colours, again they all don't have to be purchased in one go, staggering the buy will also help with block obsolesce issues as well.

JATF out to 2035 is not going to work with Canterbury alone on sustainable issues alone, we have to have the raise train and sustain construct, JAFT is going to have to be able to sustain themselves for short periods until either an air-bridge is set up or additional sealift arrives. A single JMMS can't do it unless you want to change the the AOR for something like HNLMS Karel Doorman (A833) which can do both wet and dry stores as well as bring additional troops and vehicles.

Army contribution to the JATF is a combined arms team and element from all regiments from light infantry to Amour both LAV and MBT depending on the task at hand, the motorised element does not need to move as a Battalion (Bushmaster 12-14 units per rifle company) and a Squadron's (14x MBT) worth of Leopards won't move with the JATF but a troop (4xMBT) can provide support for either light infantry or motorised infantry for either heavy direct or indirect fire support against entrenched or hardened obstacle's.
Be it over 20 years or even 30 years a 2% budget for NZ is simply not large enough full stop to attain that force size.

Yes the original deal for the Anzac's was for 2+2, However they were a less costly platform, The Type 26's or any of the other platforms are likely to come in at no less then double the price of the Anzac frigates when adjusted for inflation.. So them maybe having the funds to acquire 4 Anzac's would actually only be enough to acquire 2 Type 26's.

So there is talk of them expanding there OPV fleet to 3, That is still a long way off of 6 and that does not take into account the crew's of the Damen 2400's are 1/3rd bigger, For some navies that wouldn't be an issue, For New Zealand with limited man power it is an issue.

Any specific information to show that the 5 C-130's are not sustainable? Even if that is the case if there was a specific need to show that the fleet needed to be more then doubled then the RNZAF would be out there screaming for them because any time a fleet need's to be doubled to meet demand then the system has failed.. I have not seen that to be the case. Further, Why exactly the A-400M's? I haven't seen anything in NZ's future that will require anything that large especially in those numbers. Your suggestion would give NZ a lift capacity of 444 tons compared to Australia's 860 tons, NZ has ZERO need for that amount of capacity.

Exactly what sort of conflict's are you expecting New Zealand to get involved in? New Zealand is almost certain to only take part in peacekeeping missions in the pacific and humanitarian operations, No full blown major war. If an extra ship is then order a sister ship to the HMNZS Canterbury, That might be a capable acquisition if you can recruit more personnel. Should point out thought Australia and New Zealand are increasing joint operations and command for responses to situations that NZ would take part it, thus between all the future asset's that Australia has coming on board little need really for NZ to acquire a second ship.

Honestly.. Your in a fantasy.. What your proposing has no basis in reality.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
*
I don't smoke, but have been known to polish off a bottle of Wild Turkey every now and then.


From what I can see is the NZDF budget is running at approx 1.5% of GDP or just shy of 3B NZD and has been as low as 1.1% in recent years, increasing the budget depending on the economy should increase it by about 1b NZD plus per year every year for the next 20 years, and some of the major equipment should already be taken into account under the forward estimates unless you intend to hollow out the force further

Statistics for NZ GDP had you running at about 231B NZD and with economic growth at approx 3.5%, me thinks if the politicians wanted to find another 1to 1.5B NZD per year I think it achievable only real problem I foresee is the exchange rates at the time will play a big factor
Using the NZD as your basis is pointless when NZ is so reliant on export's for there military. The NZD has fallen to the historical average of 64 cents to the USD and is expected to fall further. So that $231 billion is more like just south of $150 billion USD. You also need to take into account, The prices on all of these asset's too will rise over time, So you will never be able to afford them, At least not before they them selves are on to being replaced.
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #13
Be it over 20 years or even 30 years a 2% budget for NZ is simply not large enough full stop to attain that force size.

Yes the original deal for the Anzac's was for 2+2, However they were a less costly platform, The Type 26's or any of the other platforms are likely to come in at no less then double the price of the Anzac frigates when adjusted for inflation.. So them maybe having the funds to acquire 4 Anzac's would actually only be enough to acquire 2 Type 26's.

So there is talk of them expanding there OPV fleet to 3, That is still a long way off of 6 and that does not take into account the crew's of the Damen 2400's are 1/3rd bigger, For some navies that wouldn't be an issue, For New Zealand with limited man power it is an issue.

Any specific information to show that the 5 C-130's are not sustainable? Even if that is the case if there was a specific need to show that the fleet needed to be more then doubled then the RNZAF would be out there screaming for them because any time a fleet need's to be doubled to meet demand then the system has failed.. I have not seen that to be the case. Further, Why exactly the A-400M's? I haven't seen anything in NZ's future that will require anything that large especially in those numbers. Your suggestion would give NZ a lift capacity of 444 tons compared to Australia's 860 tons, NZ has ZERO need for that amount of capacity.

Exactly what sort of conflict's are you expecting New Zealand to get involved in? New Zealand is almost certain to only take part in peacekeeping missions in the pacific and humanitarian operations, No full blown major war. If an extra ship is then order a sister ship to the HMNZS Canterbury, That might be a capable acquisition if you can recruit more personnel. Should point out thought Australia and New Zealand are increasing joint operations and command for responses to situations that NZ would take part it, thus between all the future asset's that Australia has coming on board little need really for NZ to acquire a second ship.

Honestly.. Your in a fantasy.. What your proposing has no basis in reality.
Their have been times which have been noted on this forum and elsewhere when for various reasons that no aircraft have been available or have gone unserviceable at the last minute, it just doesn't happen to the RNZAF but is common to all airforce globally, it just happens most airforces are large enough to cover the unexpected.

The JATF is the core element in the NZDF strategic plan which defines the capability of the Defence Force out to 2035 for which it has an emphasis on the maritime outlook and expeditionary in nature, and the NZG wish that it be capable of projecting and sustaining land or maritime forces with increased combat utility, either on its own or as part of a wider coalition.

NZDF equipment is getting larger not smaller in size and weight, if you think A400 is to large than why has NZG & RNZAF looked into purchasing C17 Globemaster, remember in most case's NZ has a requirement to move tactical loads over strategic distance, and you will find the C17 are a replacement for the 757 and not the C130H

I am expecting NZDF as does the NZG to do all that you have stated and meet its commitments under various treaty and alliance the same as the ADF does. I am not expecting as you put it a full blown major war, but that has not stopped the ADF from being equipped with LHD, ASW Frigates, AWD, submarines, MBT and fighter jets. Equipping the defence force to cover various contingencies is a prudent measure that gives the government options on how it wants to responded to certain events not just in the NZ environs but globally.*
 

t68

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #14
Using the NZD as your basis is pointless when NZ is so reliant on export's for there military. The NZD has fallen to the historical average of 64 cents to the USD and is expected to fall further. So that $231 billion is more like just south of $150 billion USD. You also need to take into account, The prices on all of these asset's too will rise over time, So you will never be able to afford them, At least not before they them selves are on to being replaced.
Every defence force in the world has those sort of problems when it comes to exchange rates, as for exports i imagine you are referring to importing the defence needs? RAN has the same problems, it can either import them or pay a premium for local build. Most ships are built here as are the Bushmasters but a majority of other kit is imported either fully or in kit form.
 

Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
Okay...

When we gave up the RAN Dreamland thread it was with the understanding that the level of discussion in there would be contained to that thread and that thread only. I am not going to sit here and watch cloned dreamland threads pop up on every topic, if that is the level of discussion you want, go elsewhere for it.

Thread locked.
 
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