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North Korean Military.

This is a discussion on North Korean Military. within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by T-Rex North Korea will not start another war because it does not enjoy the support of China ...


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Old April 15th, 2008   #31
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North Korea will not start another war because it does not enjoy the support of China or Russia as it used to during the cold war. Besides, the North Korean leader is simply too fond of his dynasty, he is not going to spoil all that for the glory of his nation. This is how most communist dictators are. Recently the discovery channel showed one documentary of one famous FBI agent (who was the leader of one fake communist party in America and he was given awards by the Soviet leaders for his contribution to the communist movement), this agent had passed on to Washington how scared the Soviet leaders were of a war between then Soviet Union and the US. The US took advantage of this key information and won the cold war. Perhaps someone can find out and post the name of this FBI agent, I've written it down somewhere.
That might be one factor, but it was my understanding that it was manly economics that caused the melt down of the iron curtain.
President Reagan went on a military spending spree of a six hundred plus ships for the US Navy alone, the Russians just could not keep up with dollars be spent on the US Defense machine ,it put to much pressure on it own economic systems to compete.

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Old April 15th, 2008   #32
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That might be one factor, but it was my understanding that it was manly economics that caused the melt down of the iron curtain.
President Reagan went on a military spending spree of a six hundred plus ships for the US Navy alone, the Russians just could not keep up with dollars be spent on the US Defense machine ,it put to much pressure on it own economic systems to compete.

Regards,
tom
The Soviet economy was slowing down before Reagan was elected. The pressure wasn't so much from military spending (though that did consume a hell of a lot of resources, & certainly made things worse) as from the inefficiencies inherent in trying to run a modern(ish) economy by central planning. Note that other Soviet-bloc countries were having similar, or even more severe, economic problems at lower levels of military spending than the USSR.
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Old April 15th, 2008   #33
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Demographics also had a big part to play in the SU's downfall, with it's big knockon effect on the economy and social structures. A problem Russia still has to this day.
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Old April 15th, 2008   #34
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Do you have demographic data from the period?
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Old April 18th, 2008   #35
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No. Some time ago i read an article which stated the CIA were predicting the SU downfall because of demographic pressures, one of their long range forcasts they made in the early 70s. Unfortunately i didn't keep the article but it might be out there somewhere on the internet
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Old April 18th, 2008   #36
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No. Some time ago i read an article which stated the CIA were predicting the SU downfall because of demographic pressures, one of their long range forcasts they made in the early 70s. Unfortunately i didn't keep the article but it might be out there somewhere on the internet
IIRC that was due to high Central Asian birthrates, not population decline.
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Old April 18th, 2008   #37
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IIRC that was due to high Central Asian birthrates, not population decline.
Ah, usual western myths...

1. Everything was ok with demographic in USSR. Central Asian republic had certainly higher birthrates, but again this was not a problem.

2. USSR defense spending was in constant decline (in % to economic) for the last 40 years. So in essence, Reagan initiatives did not caused USSR to spend more, but they MIGHT prevent USSR to spend less - which ofc still influenced economical and political situation in bad way.

3. Economy in USSR is certainly slowed down in later 70x - early 80x, but the economic growth still remained in-line with western block economy growth - in fact, it still even remained slightly higher.

4. The USSR (and east block) collapse was caused by propaganda... You can try to read eastern block newspapers of that time and see how idiotic and unrealistic, portrayed much better than it is, western society was described. For which idiotic and unrealistic imaginary deficiencies eastern society was bashed...

Simply put, after 70 years peoples forgot what it means - capitalistic society. They forgot all its disadvantages, and seen only easy-to-see advantages of richest 1st world countries - i.e. Germany, France, USA. Even Italy or Spain already lived worse on average than DDR , USSR or Chechoslovakia.

5. That said, there was bad economical problems in eastern block, cased partially by planned economic (but also many problems solved by it), but mainly by suppressing small and middle-size private enterprises. State owned market network and light industry simply couldnt compete with private-owned companies, which were needed in millions. There is a reason why in many capitalistic countries there are state owned oil, aircraft, military, auto, etc corporations present, but i dont know single (capitalistic) country where state owned small market or light industry corporations play any significant role.

6. ") North Korea dont have any chances and will not start any war. Kim live pretty well and he will not want to end up as Saddam - what is certain outcome of any NK war with SK supported by USA.
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Old April 19th, 2008   #38
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I disagree about the causes of collapse. People in Russia weren't protesting for the sake of capitalism. They were protesting for the sake of democracy. What they got instead was capitalism.
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Old April 19th, 2008   #39
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I disagree about the causes of collapse. People in Russia weren't protesting for the sake of capitalism. They were protesting for the sake of democracy. What they got instead was capitalism.
Haha! Good one! Only one problem - in collective eastern block mind (stupidly) democracy = capitalistm. Or, better to say, Western paradise = democracy + capitalism. So most peoples didnt opted for just democracy or capitalism - they wanted things exactly as they were in the West. But not in the real West - in the imaginary West, pictured partially by western propaganda, partially by they own wild dreams, partially by they own leaders lies.

They wished democracy just as in USA - without even remote understanding or knowledge about what it is - a democracy in USA. They wished capitalism just as in USA - again, without even remote knowledge what it means. They filled all these pretty words with own dreams. They couldnt see disadvantages of western society. But they could perfectly see disadvantages of own society, especially amplified by western and own propaganda.
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Old April 19th, 2008   #40
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Exactly. It wasn't hostile propaganda, stupid leaders or anything like that. It was millions of ordinary people that all simply pulled each in their own direction.
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Old April 20th, 2008   #41
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Exactly. It wasn't hostile propaganda, stupid leaders or anything like that. It was millions of ordinary people that all simply pulled each in their own direction.
Propaganda, stupid (or not so stupid...) leader just amplified that. With more sane leaders and less propaganda things could very well turn very different. China is a perfect example here.
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Old April 20th, 2008   #42
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I would not want Russia to look like modern day China.
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Old April 21st, 2008   #43
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I would not want Russia to look like modern day China.
Why not? Given much higher starting level, if USSR developed to same extent as China in the last 20 years - USSR would be 5 times as powerful as US and soviet citizens would be 2 times richer than US citizens.
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Old April 22nd, 2008   #44
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I disagree. The Soviet economy was in large subsidized by oil and gas revenues. While the enterprises that made no profit were not a problem (closed economy means that money rotates, essentially leaving the overall profit at 0), many were running in the negatives. Dealing with that would take a lot of work. China had no industry, the USSR had industry that needed reform work. China also had much larger population and better relations with the West, making trade and the import of manufacturing processes an easy thing. Finally the USSR was still entangled in an international diplomatic mess as a result of the Cold War, with many regimes that were created as anti-Soviet, or maintained anti-Soviet postures to please the U.S. Anyways we've gotten miles off topic, does anyone actually have any valid statistical info on the DPRK military?
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Old April 22nd, 2008   #45
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I disagree. The Soviet economy was in large subsidized by oil and gas revenues.
USSR economy was subsidized by VERY small amount by Oil & Gas revenue. USSR exported 1/3 of current ex-USSR countries export - and that for much more diversified export and economic.


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While the enterprises that made no profit were not a problem (closed economy means that money rotates, essentially leaving the overall profit at 0), many were running in the negatives. Dealing with that would take a lot of work.
In planned economic enterprises shouldnt make any profit - any profit made generally means bad (or rather incomplete) planning.
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Anyways we've gotten miles off topic, does anyone actually have any valid statistical info on the DPRK military?
Not really.
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