Iran and Related Geopolitical Defense Issues

[LogisticsGuy]

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s navy will hold 10 days of maneuvers east of the Strait of Hormuz, state-run Fars news agency reported, citing Navy Commander Habibollah Sayari.

The exercise will start Dec. 24 and cover a distance of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), the news agency reported today on its website. State-run Press TV reported the maneuvers would extend east as far as the Indian Ocean. About 15.5 million barrels of oil a day, about a sixth of global consumption, flows through the waterway between Iran and Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, according to the U.S. Department of Energy

Iran Navy to Hold Exercises East of Hormuz Strait, Fars Says - Businessweek

 

[RobWilliams]

Wouldn't be suprised if you get a warning for this, DT mods don't like it when people copy and paste news articles (Which in itself is ok) but don't post any of their own thoughts on the matter or advance any sort of discussion, just so you know.

 

[LogisticsGuy]

OK. Thanks. I have not been here for several years.

What I sort of wonder is if the recent transfer of a carrier group through the Suez canal has drawn down the normal US navel presence in the Persian Gulf area?

 

[Anixtu]

What I sort of wonder is if the recent transfer of a carrier group through the Suez canal has drawn down the normal US navel presence in the Persian Gulf area?

There is a regular rotation of CVNs. Presumably as one returned to the US, another replaced it.

You may find this link useful: CV Locations

 

[OpinionNoted]

20th dec arabian gulf,CVN-74 John C. Stennis.

 

[surpreme]

The Iranians are at it again they really try to appear like a strong navy. I will give the Iranian this they have alot of heart. The Iranian Navy is really weak and they know it. The sauction has really hurt the Iranian. At least they are training with what they have I give them respect for that.

 

[STURM]

I will give the Iranian this they have alot of heart.

They live in a dangerous neighbourhood - on their western flank they face a number of Arab sunni states that have aligned themselves with Uncle Sam and have been at odds with the Iranians for centuries, there is a nuclear armed Israel with receives unconditional U.S. support, there are western troops in Afghanistan which borders Iran, they have to watch out for the interests of their shiite brethren in Iraq, Iran's main ally, Syria, is facing huge problems - what choice do they have?

The sauction has really hurt the Iranian.

It remains to be seen if sanctions are really hurting Iran. Remember the U.S. led sanctions on Iraq? It had a devastating effect on normal Iraqis, with tragic consequences for thousands of kids, but had absolutely no effect on the leadership and Saddam's inner circle. Iran's importance to regional affairs, its oil and its strategic location, mean that countries, under the present circumstances, will never completely cut all business ties with it.

 

[gazzzwp]

The Iranians are at it again they really try to appear like a strong navy. I will give the Iranian this they have alot of heart. The Iranian Navy is really weak and they know it. The sauction has really hurt the Iranian. At least they are training with what they have I give them respect for that.

I read that they have a large number of high speed light craft (outboard motor type?) each capable of launching high speed modern missiles. I guess their tactic would be to hit the enemy with swarm or saturation attack in the absence of any large scale modern attack vessels. I guess it's hard to actually tell how effective this strategy would be and how easy it would be to defend against. I would imagine a few Apache's would be needed rather than anti-ship missiles?

 

[colay]

I read that they have a large number of high speed light craft (outboard motor type?) each capable of launching high speed modern missiles. I guess their tactic would be to hit the enemy with swarm or saturation attack in the absence of any large scale modern attack vessels. I guess it's hard to actually tell how effective this strategy would be and how easy it would be to defend against. I would imagine a few Apache's would be needed rather than anti-ship missiles?

The best defense is a good offense. They won't be maneuvering moored by the pier.

 

[surpreme]

When it comes the military area this is where the sanctions hurt them. The Iranian has oil money but cannot purchase modern naval equipment that what I mean the sanction are hurting them. No one sell them modern equipment. The Iraqi didn't get to much modern military when they were hit by sanctions so in a the military business that where it hurt the most. Overall that where their getting hammered at I know overall in the oil business it that not going to hurt them and the overall head of state the Iman or Guardian of the Revoluntion.

 

[1805]

When it comes the military area this is where the sanctions hurt them. The Iranian has oil money but cannot purchase modern naval equipment that what I mean the sanction are hurting them. No one sell them modern equipment. The Iraqi didn't get to much modern military when they were hit by sanctions so in a the military business that where it hurt the most. Overall that where their getting hammered at I know overall in the oil business it that not going to hurt them and the overall head of state the Iman or Guardian of the Revoluntion.

I agree in an all out fight, the Iranian's should get a complete hammering, but they seem cleverer than to get drawn into that type of scenario. There are many variables here: complete lack of appetite in the West for another ground war and long commitment, the geography suits the Iranian’s who must have a good chance of closing the straits and denying the Gulf to western naval forces. I doubt NATO wants to antagonise them into making our exit of Afghanistan more uncomfortable than it is already, (this is a political and economic necessity for the US & Europe). Yes they have had military sanctions, but how effective are they and money greases many palms. They have a growing internal defence industry, how good are their air defences? How did they bring down that RQ-170 Sentinel? Arab support...they would like us to get rid of the problem behind closed doors, but are all to fearful of being seen to support the West in public....lukewarm allies.

 

[T.C.P]

I read that they have a large number of high speed light craft (outboard motor type?) each capable of launching high speed modern missiles. I guess their tactic would be to hit the enemy with swarm or saturation attack in the absence of any large scale modern attack vessels. I guess it's hard to actually tell how effective this strategy would be and how easy it would be to defend against. I would imagine a few Apache's would be needed rather than anti-ship missiles?

Most of Irans FACMs are arme with MLRS instead of guided missiles, so not very effective in my opinion.

Swarm tactics against an opposition like the USN will never work, their tiny boats will be blown up by USN air craft and the few that do manage to survive the air onslaught will be cut down by the main gun of USN ships.

 

[gazzzwp]

Most of Irans FACMs are arme with MLRS instead of guided missiles, so not very effective in my opinion.

Swarm tactics against an opposition like the USN will never work, their tiny boats will be blown up by USN air craft and the few that do manage to survive the air onslaught will be cut down by the main gun of USN ships.

There is something else for the West be wary of if at all they are considering an Iranian strike. China's influence in the region is growing and very quickly. Closer alliances with Pakistan and now an oil deal with Afghanistan:

BBC News - China gets approval for Afghanistan oil exploration bid

A precedent appears to being set which is that when a nation perceives that it has had a raw deal from the US or Nato, China's commercial machine walks right in the back door. How long before China installs military equipment in the middle east under the pretence of protect their commercial interests?

The real war is going to be Chinese commercial and then military expansion in the region; as China insidiously benefits from tensions between the Middle East and the West.

 

[T.C.P]

There is something else for the West be wary of if at all they are considering an Iranian strike. China's influence in the region is growing and very quickly. Closer alliances with Pakistan and now an oil deal with Afghanistan:

BBC News - China gets approval for Afghanistan oil exploration bid

A precedent appears to being set which is that when a nation perceives that it has had a raw deal from the US or Nato, China's commercial machine walks right in the back door. How long before China installs military equipment in the middle east under the pretence of protect their commercial interests?

The real war is going to be Chinese commercial and then military expansion in the region; as China insidiously benefits from tensions between the Middle East and the West.

If the US wants to destroy the Iranian navy, what can China possibly do?
Take out a new air craft carrier from its magical hat and send it there.


China is a huge power yes, but it is not a super power yet, there influence might be growing in the Mid-east but they are no where near the level of US influence there.

 

[tatra]

I read that they have a large number of high speed light craft (outboard motor type?) each capable of launching high speed modern missiles.

Missile boats might be a problem, but rocket boats aren't
http://www.china-defense.com/smf/index.php?topic=1192.120

 

[My2Cents]

Most of Irans FACMs are arme with MLRS instead of guided missiles, so not very effective in my opinion.

Swarm tactics against an opposition like the USN will never work, their tiny boats will be blown up by USN air craft and the few that do manage to survive the air onslaught will be cut down by the main gun of USN ships.

Assume that Iran attacks without a formal declaration of war. That allows them near simultaneous attacks on a number of US Navy ships at close range without worrying about defensive fire because of the ROE. Sure, your comments will apply to any ships that they don’t hit in the first 10 minutes, but by then they may have sunk or crippled most the US ships in the Persian Gulf. Next they mine the Straits of Hormuz and set up some of mobile cruise missile launchers to cover it, plus a whole bunch of decoys to confuse the situation.

The rest of the US Navy shows up starting a couple days later to find the straits blocked and Iran threatening to keep them closed unless the US Navy agrees to stay out of the Gulf. Local protesters and demanding that the western world stay out of a war in the Persian Gulf (NO Blood For OIL), and the politicians waffle. Meanwhile Russia and China in the UN are demanding that everyone negotiates with Iran and blocking any resolution to do other than that. Meanwhile the world markets and economy are in freefall, so a quick solution is required. US carriers will probably still have command of the air, but with so many decoy missile launchers (and more every day) it is prevent them from determining if you have killed enough of the real launchers to force the passage quickly and resolve the situation, increasing the demands for a negotiated settlement.

Don’t’ think that they could try it? It is just a variation on what they have been threatening to do for years.

 

[gazzzwp]

Tensions appear to be escalating with the Iranian's threatening to close the strait:

Analysis: Saber-rattling in Strait of Hormuz - CNN.com

I think this is a clear sign that the Iranians are concerned against further sanctions and that current sanctions are beginning to bite. It's a serious threat to make because until now they have laughed off the effect of sanctions as totally insignificant.

So speculating what could happen; presumably oil cargo would need to be escorted through the strait by military vessels, and let the Iranian's make the first move? Nato's strategy however has always been to strike back first to avoid as far as possible the loss of any prime assets. A worrying development if ever it did occur.

 

[My2Cents]

Nato's strategy however has always been to strike back first to avoid as far as possible the loss of any prime assets. A worrying development if ever it did occur.

Got some examples of that when in a situation without either declaring war or a UN mandate (i.e. Libya)? I think it more likely that they will hesitate until the Iranians have already fired.

 

[swerve]

....Meanwhile Russia and China in the UN are demanding that everyone negotiates with Iran and blocking any resolution to do other than that. Meanwhile the world markets and economy are in freefall, so a quick solution is required. ....

Which country is more dependent on Gulf oil? China or the USA? I suspect you'd get the answer wrong.

Russia & China do not have the same interests here. China wants an uninterrupted supply of oil from the Gulf, & nothing to happen which puts up the price. Russia is happy with a disrupted supply, because it benefits from a high oil price.

 

[T.C.P]

Assume that Iran attacks without a formal declaration of war. That allows them near simultaneous attacks on a number of US Navy ships at close range without worrying about defensive fire because of the ROE. Sure, your comments will apply to any ships that they don’t hit in the first 10 minutes, but by then they may have sunk or crippled most the US ships in the Persian Gulf. Next they mine the Straits of Hormuz and set up some of mobile cruise missile launchers to cover it, plus a whole bunch of decoys to confuse the situation.

The rest of the US Navy shows up starting a couple days later to find the straits blocked and Iran threatening to keep them closed unless the US Navy agrees to stay out of the Gulf. Local protesters and demanding that the western world stay out of a war in the Persian Gulf (NO Blood For OIL), and the politicians waffle. Meanwhile Russia and China in the UN are demanding that everyone negotiates with Iran and blocking any resolution to do other than that. Meanwhile the world markets and economy are in freefall, so a quick solution is required. US carriers will probably still have command of the air, but with so many decoy missile launchers (and more every day) it is prevent them from determining if you have killed enough of the real launchers to force the passage quickly and resolve the situation, increasing the demands for a negotiated settlement.

Don’t’ think that they could try it? It is just a variation on what they have been threatening to do for years.

If USN ships are attacked by Iran, then the United States population will be screaming for blood, the Americans might be tired of war, but they will not take an attack on their ships lightly.

Also If USN ships are attacked won't their advance CIWS take out most of the anti ship missiles, and the Iranian rockets are unreliable and quite frankly I don't think they can do much damage to big ships.


Also I don't think Iran is that suicidal, they make a lot of outrages statements yes, but I think their political leaders are smart enough to now that attacking USN ships basically is a ticket for getting bombed to the stone ages.