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Implications of Scottish Independence

This is a discussion on Implications of Scottish Independence within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Posts were made in relation to "defence and military upheaval" because that's what this is; a defence forum. It's inevitable ...


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Old November 9th, 2012   #121
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Posts were made in relation to "defence and military upheaval" because that's what this is; a defence forum.

It's inevitable that defence topics stray into politics every now and then due to controversial decisions made or industrial policy or whatever, but your direct call to know the political ramifications of an independent Scotland on the continent is too much.

Nothing gets the blood up and the chest thumping going than politics and I have no wish to see the thread go down that route as it's neither fun nor pleasant to witness.
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Old November 9th, 2012   #122
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United Kingdom comprised with England & Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. If Scotland gets its way and got separated from UK union then what would be the political ramification of this move. Will that provide impetuous to the separatist movement in Northern Ireland? How the experts see the future of United Kingdom after this happening.

I was watching the discussion on Russian Television (RT) talk show “cross talk” where experts were saying that SNP wants to remain within European Union after the perceived independence..
This is an exact repeat of a previous post of yours, & fails to address any part of what it was posted as a reply to.

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The question I asked over that why the Scots want to come out from the federation of United Kingdom, a veto wielding major regional power.
That has been answered. The answer is that we don't know that they do want to leave the UK. They've never voted for it. The highest ever vote for a pro-independence party is 23% of the electorate. The question is wrong.
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Old November 9th, 2012   #123
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This is an exact repeat of a previous post of yours, & fails to address any part of what it was posted as a reply to.


That has been answered. The answer is that we don't know that they do want to leave the UK. They've never voted for it. The highest ever vote for a pro-independence party is 23% of the electorate. The question is wrong.

Kindly evade the repeated points and address the below mentioned point:

Economic crisis and ethno-linguistic nationalism aggravated the pro-independence movement in a number of European Countries. How the internal dynamics of UK different from Spain and Belgium?
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Old November 9th, 2012   #124
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Something which you have in turn done to the last reply from swerve. So hardly in a position to point the finger IMHO.

Enough of the politics, this isn't the place to discuss the political effects of the independence of Scotland which may or may not happen.
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Old November 9th, 2012   #125
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Kindly evade the repeated points and address the below mentioned point:

Economic crisis and ethno-linguistic nationalism aggravated the pro-independence movement in a number of European Countries. How the internal dynamics of UK different from Spain and Belgium?
You can not demand replies from anyone to anything you post. All members can choose what they reply to.

You repeated a question which had already been answered, while quoting the answer. I suggest you modify your posting style, & read the replies to your posts more carefully.
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Old November 9th, 2012   #126
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I was watching the discussion on Russian Television (RT) talk show “cross talk” where experts were saying that SNP wants to remain within European Union after the perceived independence. The question I asked over that why the Scots want to come out from the federation of United Kingdom, a veto wielding major regional power.
I'll expand a little bit on this point in that the SNP apparently have been under the impression that they'd automatically enter the EU retaining all the waivers and rights the UK has, but it's been recently suggested that in fact Scotland would have to apply from scratch, in effect much as any other new entrant to the EU would.

That's troublesome for the SNP as it'd erode some of their ambitions in terms of retaining controls on borders, immigration etc.

With reference to the rest of the UK, Wales is a principality, not a country (although best not raise that in a pub with a Welsh Rugby team present, you might have to leave sharpish..) Ireland and Wales both have regional assemblies with some local powers of government, although neither assembly has much in the way of tax raising powers etc.

There's no serious possibility of Scottish independence causing a stampede for Wales and Ireland to follow suit, put it that way.

As has been indicated, there's very likely to be a "no" vote for Independence in any event - most polls show the Scots are broadly opposed to dissolving the union and as the more complex and troublesome issues emerge.

Some of those issues will be the impact of reduced defence based jobs for instance, and this is where a large chunk of the discussions on this thread have focussed.

Ian
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Old November 10th, 2012   #127
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Just asking if scotland did gain independance what is the UK going to do about air defence that would leave just conninsby would they consider leeming again one air defence base is not enough,what happens when conninsby needs its runway replacing stuff like that.
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Old November 10th, 2012   #128
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But even so would Scotland be able to man vessels like that? The whole Scottish military will be around 20k including reserves (15,000 full time 5000 reservists) so would be operating vessels ~180 be worth it? A River class OPV is manned by about ~30 so right there that's enough crew for roughly 6 OPVs, they need vessels with as much manpower efficiency as they can get.

In terms of manpower that’s double the size of the NZDF (8500 regulars, 2200 reserves). With only about 2500 uniforms in the RNZN which for its size performs at a level beyond its weight.

Ships of the RNZN; 1x Strategic Sealift ship, 2x Frigates, 6x Patrol boats, 1x Replenishment oiler and Diving Support Vessel and 5x helicopters.

It’s the budget and the spread of uniforms will dictate how the Scottish Defence forces performs, any indication on how they want to spread the numbers?
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Old November 10th, 2012   #129
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In terms of manpower that’s double the size of the NZDF (8500 regulars, 2200 reserves). With only about 2500 uniforms in the RNZN which for its size performs at a level beyond its weight.

Ships of the RNZN; 1x Strategic Sealift ship, 2x Frigates, 6x Patrol boats, 1x Replenishment oiler and Diving Support Vessel and 5x helicopters.

It’s the budget and the spread of uniforms will dictate how the Scottish Defence forces performs, any indication on how they want to spread the numbers?
True other comparisons above and below could be: Danish Navy have about 3500 and will operate 5 major combat ships, about 11 sizable patrol/OPV and c60 over vessels and the Irish Naval Service with c1450 and 8 OPV/patrol vessels. I suspect the SNP would rather be in the INS space, but to buy votes will present a case nearer the Danish.
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Old November 12th, 2012   #130
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In terms of manpower that’s double the size of the NZDF (8500 regulars, 2200 reserves). With only about 2500 uniforms in the RNZN which for its size performs at a level beyond its weight.

Ships of the RNZN; 1x Strategic Sealift ship, 2x Frigates, 6x Patrol boats, 1x Replenishment oiler and Diving Support Vessel and 5x helicopters.

It’s the budget and the spread of uniforms will dictate how the Scottish Defence forces performs, any indication on how they want to spread the numbers?

Hard to tell from what little concrete statements the SNP has made I'm afraid. I suspect the bulk of the force will be army personnel, reviving some old cap badges as that's the cheapest way of providing the visible portion of the defence.

There's discussion of "ocean going ships" for sea control but that could well mean a fleet of OPV's rather than anything like a frigate.


In terms of fast air, I'm seeing more and more comments from Scots indicating they're wondering why they'd bother so perhaps something more like the Irish Republic is in line.
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Old November 15th, 2012   #131
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I'll expand a little bit on this point in that the SNP apparently have been under the impression that they'd automatically enter the EU retaining all the waivers and rights the UK has, but it's been recently suggested that in fact Scotland would have to apply from scratch, in effect much as any other new entrant to the EU would.

That's troublesome for the SNP as it'd erode some of their ambitions in terms of retaining controls on borders, immigration etc.

With reference to the rest of the UK, Wales is a principality, not a country (although best not raise that in a pub with a Welsh Rugby team present, you might have to leave sharpish..) Ireland and Wales both have regional assemblies with some local powers of government, although neither assembly has much in the way of tax raising powers etc.

There's no serious possibility of Scottish independence causing a stampede for Wales and Ireland to follow suit, put it that way.

As has been indicated, there's very likely to be a "no" vote for Independence in any event - most polls show the Scots are broadly opposed to dissolving the union and as the more complex and troublesome issues emerge.

Some of those issues will be the impact of reduced defence based jobs for instance, and this is where a large chunk of the discussions on this thread have focussed.

Ian

Thanks,
yes i am agreed with the points that you explicated.
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Old July 7th, 2013   #132
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The Defence Select Committee was discussing the up coming white paper from the SP on 2nd July. After they questioned the SNP, they followed on with Hammond. He was quite open about future Type 26 orders, indicating it was not likely that the UK would simply source from an independent Scotland for: strategic, European competition laws and cost grounds.

Some interesting comments about the timescales of a SSN/SSBN switch from HMNB Clyde, 10 years+.

The SNP stance seems to be completely focused on votes (bringing back cap badges, jobs & locations). They propose to base a non nuclear surface fleet of OPVs at the Clyde...surely the wrong side to protect the Oil Rigs...right place for votes though!

The White Paper is due out in the Autumn.

Last edited by 1805; July 7th, 2013 at 10:19 AM.
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Old July 9th, 2013   #133
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The Defence Select Committee was discussing the up coming white paper from the SP on 2nd July. After they questioned the SNP, they followed on with Hammond. He was quite open about future Type 26 orders, indicating it was not likely that the UK would simply source from an independent Scotland for: strategic, European competition laws and cost grounds.

Some interesting comments about the timescales of a SSN/SSBN switch from HMNB Clyde, 10 years+.

The SNP stance seems to be completely focused on votes (bringing back cap badges, jobs & locations). They propose to base a non nuclear surface fleet of OPVs at the Clyde...surely the wrong side to protect the Oil Rigs...right place for votes though!

The White Paper is due out in the Autumn.
fyi their is larger oil and gas reserves off the west coast of Scotland than their ever was in the North Sea at it's peak ... a geological survey was done in the mid 1990s off the west coast of Scotland including the firth of Clyde ... now how would Scotland's defence forces look like if we vote yes 8.4% of the UK makes up 9.9% of the UK taxes (kinda blows away the subsidy junkies myth) the UK currently has 6 type 45 destroyers, 12 type 23 frigates and will have 2 QE2nd class carriers by 2016 ... so that is basically 70% of a type 45 and 1 and 1/4 type 23 and 20% of a QE2nd carrier as an example of some of the navy hardware ... now how can that work you say ..... that is when the negotiations come into play with bartering at a top level ie for that 20% of a carrier we will give you a type 45, the naval forces inherited by Scotland could look like this 1 astute class sub, 1 Trafalgar class sub, 1 type 45 Destroyer and 2 type 23 frigates (remember their is 2 lpds and 1 LPH and other large vessels) 1 mine sweeper and 1 mine hunter and 2 patrol boats and the same system will be used with the RAF and Army hardware, last year a audit was done on the UK military hardware it stood at £88 billion Scotland would be entitled to something like £8.5 billion .... the Scottish taxpayers pay £3.7 billion per year towards the UK armed forces so I think you will find we will be able to maintain the equipment that we receive.

I've seen a lot of grumbling about where the nuclear deterrent should go and how much it would cost to remove it from faslane, well maybe successive UK governments brought this dilemma on themselves, they were told from the start that Scots did not want nuclear weapons on our soil they ignored this and still put Trident in our country, Westminster put them in our country against the wishes of the people so it is only fitting that Westminster removes these weapons from our soil at their expense ... why should we pay to remove a system we never wanted in the first place
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Old July 9th, 2013   #134
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I can't see any of the existing naval units being useful (1 and a 1/3 of a Type 23 is effectively useless as you'd need three to keep one on task) Same goes for the aircraft etc. Scotland would need a radically rebalanced group of forces, and this is where we're all a bit stuck as the SNP have been robustly forthright but unendingly vague about their actual plans for a future Scottish defence force.

Don't forget, they'd been losing access to the bulk of the training facilities that the RN, RAF and Army currently use and would have to reconstitute those in some way. I'm unclear as to if the SNP actually intend to operate an air force for instance? If so, taking the Tranche 1a Tiffy as a block might be the smartest idea - it'd be a homogeneous fleet and there'd be enough cabs to allow for low hours, assuming the intention was to keep a QRA fleet plus training hours only. There's still a solid line of thinking to suggest the SNP won't even maintain fast jets of any sort - they've made no definitive and costed statement.

As to the relocation of Trident, hard lines I'm afraid, as it was all constructed during a labour majority in Scotland for the main part, the bulk of the money went into Scots pockets as wages. Scotland as I seem to recall, hasn't been any more or less anti nuclear than the rest of the UK in the main, and 2011 was the first time ever that the SNP got a majority government. You can't translate that back across twenty years of Trident.

Post independence Scotland would be losing a large chunk of bases, access to the rUk military shipping market and would have to scramble to place some rapid vote winning orders for a manageable fleet of OPV's surely or lose the yards in Scotland?
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Old July 10th, 2013   #135
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Before people get carried away with kit lists, one key question needs to be answered
  • What role does an independent Scotland play globally (or not) ?

Which basically boils down to securing the countries land, sea and air plus peacekeeping.

Therefore, for starters you can throw out SSNs as a worthless waste of money to maintain in that instance. If you want submarines, get SSKs. But even then they might be too much, not to mention Scotland doesn't have submarine building experience anyway so that'll be a rather expensive undertaking.
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