The grand chessboard, world powers and eurasian oil

[brian00]

It seems that the major powers are shaping up to fight over the worlds last somewhat unclaimed oil and gas reserves in central asia (approximately 12 trillion dollars worth in the area around the caspian sea). America has all but totally secured middle eastern oil in Iraq kuwait and saudi arabia and has began entrenching itself across eurasia, with bases in turkey, azerbaijan, uzbekistan and kyrgyzstan and NATO armies occupying afghanistan.

Currently the 2 pipeline routes are: from azerbaijan, through georgia to ports in turkey. Or south through afghanistan and then pakistan.

The pipeline through georgia runs very close to russia, whose long standing war with chechenya and recent war with georgia last summer was to clearly to state their claims over the area, although they didnt actually take control of any sections of the existing pipeline run by BP (presumably as this would be highly provocative).

Afghanistan is under Nato control, however pakistan is unstable and a nuclear power, also US friendly Musharraf is no longer in control, although the new Mr bhutto seems fairly corruptable

I can foresee US having difficulty maintaining control over either of these routes, there are many variables such as islamic extremism, Iran, pakistans close relationship with china, and india not wanting to miss out.

However i think the chinese or russian havent the military or stomach to directly challenge the US, China will perhaps be able to match the US militarily in 30-50 years, by which time it may be too late..

 

[Feanor]

Currently the CAR is off-limits to the US. The CSTO has firmly planted itself, and more subtly but none-the-less solidly, Chinese influence is beginning to permeate the region. NATO bases are beign kicked out one after another. I don't see any direct western influence in the CAR for the next 5 years or so. Later then that, I don't know that it's possible to guess.

 

[brian00]

Yes you are right, the map i was looking at was quite out of date, Uzbekistan asked US troops to leave in 2005 and the base in kyrgyzstan in being closed now

Really the area is off-limits to the US? do you mean everything east of the caspian sea?

as far as i know western oil companies are taking oil from azerbaijan and the east caspian sea..

 

[Feanor]

I mean in terms of military for projection. Practically the entire region is in the CSTO, which means that they will 1) be under pressure from Russia to keep American bases out and 2) can count on Russian political and potentially even military support (the rapid response forces being formed aren't a joke) in the event of a confrontation. Hence why I say the area is off-limits.

Economically the US is heavily invested into the area. Hell, economically the US is also invested into Russia and China. And vice versa. I'm speaking strictly in terms of military, and to a lesser extent geopolitical influence.

Just a note CAR refers to Central Asian Republics of the former USSR.

EDIT: Just to give you a few interesting regional details. Kazakhstan recently opted out of the NATO partnership for peace exercises in Georgia, after some harsh comments from Russia about those exercises. At the same time they've asked Russia for rights to purchase Russian military equipment on an exclusive timetable on par with domestic forces. That definelty gives an indication of where they're looking for their support.

Interestingly enough the EurAsian Economic Community, which has almost the same membership as the CSTO has also recently established an anti-crisis fund to which Russia contributed 10 billion USD, Kazakhstan contributed 5 billion USD, and the rest of the organization expects to be receiving help from the fund.

One could also extrapolate that the close timing between the kicking out of the American base and asking for Russian financial aid in Kirgyzistan are linked. There are other details, like increasing security cooperation, and joint economic projects. Overall Russia is trying position itself as the leader for regional integration, with China moving more subtly mainly through trade and economic ties.