Future of Russian Military

[Wall83]

Russia has anounched big planes to rearm its armedforces with new modern hardware by 2015. 58 Su-34 strikefighters, the new Su-35BM, 3-4 Tu-160 tactical bombers, the new T-95 mainbattletank, 69 new topol-m ICBMs, 3-4 955 Borei class submarines a number of new frigates, a number of convential submarines and the fifth generation Sukhoi PAK FA/ Tu-50 fighter, all this will have entered service with the russian armed forces by 2015.

Now should we relly belive this? It have taken Russia 12 years to get one Borei class submarine to its first seatrail and it still doesnt have its new Bulava missiles. The Topol-m ICBMs are not entering service in any great number, actually the SS-25 missile entered service alot faster in bigger numbers in the 1990s then the SS-27 are now. From 1997-2003 about 35 ICBM missiles was put on active duty, but between 2003 and 2007 only about 15 has been activated. The new PAK FA fighter first flight are continuing to be pushed forward year after year and the T-90 tank is still being produced in very low numbers in waiting for the new T-95 tank that still havent been heard or seen of (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,562073-2,00.html). Also only a handfull of new Su-34 has been given to the russian airforce in the last year and no new ones have been produced in 2008 so far.
Is the rearment of russia just a political theater to make Russia look bigger than what it relly is?

 

[Jon K]

Is the rearment of russia just a political theater to make Russia look bigger than what it relly is?

In short: yes. If you look at the operational numbers (not only from Der Spiegel piece) they're really small. As far as the budget goes, it's almost good going for a medium power like Italy, France, Germany or UK, but not good for a country which is trying to look like a great power of India-China -league. And when one tries to run larger armed forces than possible with a budget problems ensue, like in Russian case.

Correcting the path of destruction the Russian armed forces are going would demand drastic action, it seems unlikely but we have to remember that it's Russia, which has seen astonishing changes in it's armed forces in short timeframe during centuries. (eg. Peter the Great, changes in 1939-1942 etc...)

 

[eckherl]

Well, they sure in the hell have alot of equipment that maybe old but it is still effective enough to keep everyone at bay, loads of ICBMs surely will keep people from pissing in your yard. ICBMs + OIL + Natural Gas = security and time for them to decide what they want to do.

 

[Wall83]

Its suprising that Russia cant produce more than it has, if you compare with China Russia is far behind. Since the year 2000 China has commissioned about 15 hevy destoyers and fregates, russia none. China has produced and bought 200-300 planes to its air force the last 10 years, Russia about 20. Submarines in the last 10 years, China: ~30. Russia: ~5.
I would think that russia wont have much of a armed force after 2020, most likley not bigger then a medium sized european country.

 

[ROCK45]

Russia

I found it strange that India & China have more advance Flankers then the country that makes them. Like eckherl said having the loads of ICBMs is keeping others at bay. It's one of those things that you just assume they have hundreds of advance fighters and tanks but it's not the case. Russia has tons of oil and natural gas so maybe things will change?

 

[Jon K]

I would think that russia wont have much of a armed force after 2020, most likley not bigger then a medium sized european country.

That's likely, but given historic Russian preference for large numbers I would not be surprised if forces were to be quite strong numerically. The real question is, of course, future Russian strategic alignment. Will it ally with US and EU (or either) or China? This will also largely direct strategic alignment of Russian forces.

 

[Wall83]

That's likely, but given historic Russian preference for large numbers I would not be surprised if forces were to be quite strong numerically.

That might bee but so far that has yet to happend. And thats relly what is so strange, for the russian military budget is not that small. Not at all like old Sovietunion but still, with current budget they should be able to pruduce more then what they are doing. Its almost like they are pumping money but nothing is coming out of it. I mean 20 fighters in 10 years? Countrys like North Korea or Thailand can do better then that.

 

[Feanor]

The situation is not as simple as the numbers suggest. I would stay away from both extreme sides of the argument. I don't think the Russian Army will disappear by 2020. I also don't think it will be a super power by 2020 (as Mr. Putin would have us believe). The truth is that the Russian defense industry was seriously damaged by the collapse and ensuing "market economy". The result is that few Russian defense plants are capable of producing the needed weapons. Injections of money cause minor increases in production, some investment, and lots of inflation.

Now as for the numbers: no serial production runs for the VVS have been done. Serial modernizations have been in the process for some time. Tank production has not been going on for 7 years, it has been going on since 2004. In 2004 and 2005 Russian got a single tank battallion in 2 years. 1 mroe battallion came in 2006, and another in 2007. Two more are due this year. This is a definite increase in production numbers, and a rather dramatic one. The question is whether the trend will continue? Time will tell. About the nuclear arsenal. The reason that Russia managed to preserve the nuclear arsenal during the 90's is because most of it still had enough life left in it. However by now most of it is past it's service life. This is why so much of it is being removed so quickly. Now as for new production, the author intentionally ignores the growth rate of production. 2007 was an absolute post-Soviet record year for nuclear weapon production with 17 missiles, most of them SLBM Sineva R-29RMU missiles. Another important thing that's being ignored is the sharp increase in training that the Russian military and airforce has seen, including a sharp rise in flight hours.

The conclusion is pretty much this, Russia is pulling itself out of a huge slump in military capabilities. As a result many negative inertial trends will continue. However if the current growth trends continue the Russian military may just pull itself out of this slump within the next couple of decades.

 

[Jon K]

That might bee but so far that has yet to happend. And thats relly what is so strange, for the russian military budget is not that small. Not at all like old Sovietunion but still, with current budget they should be able to pruduce more then what they are doing. Its almost like they are pumping money but nothing is coming out of it. I mean 20 fighters in 10 years? Countrys like North Korea or Thailand can do better then that.

Yes, it's something unbelievable. Basically it seems that Russian military is striving to maintain all capabilities of Soviet Union, in terms of personnel, military industrial complex etc. Maintenance cost of the show is so large that almost no real results occur.

 

[Wall83]

Well lets just take a look what will be left of the russian forces by 2020.
In the airforce about 80 procent of the SU-24, Su-25, MiG-29 and Su-27 will have been ritired. The Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M will problebly still be in service but in redused numbers. The Mi-24 Hind chopper will be on its last legs and the IL-76 transport will have started to reach its last years in service.
In the army the two main battletanks T-72 and T-80 will probebly still stand for 75% of the total number of tanks, seriously outmodern in comparenment with the lastest western MBTs.
The russian navy will problebly have zero numbers of cruisers, the admiral kuznetsov will still be the only aircraft carrier in service, no more then 10 destroyers will be running and a few new frigates may have joined the fleets.
The SSBN fleet will at most consist of 4-6 borei class submarines and about 8-10 SSNs will be in service along with 10-15 dieselsubmarines consisting of old kilos and some ladas.
The rocked force will have scrapt all of its SS-18 missiles and 80-90 procent of the SS-25 mobile missile systems. SS-19 will in its last service years with no more then 30-40 missiles still in active duty. SS-27 will have reached around 100 and maybe some RS-24s will have entered service, 20-30 at most.

 

[f-22fan12]

Yes, it's something unbelievable. Basically it seems that Russian military is striving to maintain all capabilities of Soviet Union, in terms of personnel, military industrial complex etc. Maintenance cost of the show is so large that almost no real results occur.

Russia will never again be able to achieve what the Soviet Union achieved. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it had a population of over 240 million people. Today, Russia's population is only 140 million. The Soviets had the second largest economy in the world. The Russians have an economy the size of Italy. All of this "expansion" is for political show. All one has to do is look at their track record in procuring weapons systems and you will see why Russia will not get all of that equipment by the time they have said.

 

[Feanor]

Well lets just take a look what will be left of the russian forces by 2020.
In the airforce about 80 procent of the SU-24, Su-25, MiG-29 and Su-27 will have been ritired. The Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M will problebly still be in service but in redused numbers. The Mi-24 Hind chopper will be on its last legs and the IL-76 transport will have started to reach its last years in service.
In the army the two main battletanks T-72 and T-80 will probebly still stand for 75% of the total number of tanks, seriously outmodern in comparenment with the lastest western MBTs.
The russian navy will problebly have zero numbers of cruisers, the admiral kuznetsov will still be the only aircraft carrier in service, no more then 10 destroyers will be running and a few new frigates may have joined the fleets.
The SSBN fleet will at most consist of 4-6 borei class submarines and about 8-10 SSNs will be in service along with 10-15 dieselsubmarines consisting of old kilos and some ladas.
The rocked force will have scrapt all of its SS-18 missiles and 80-90 procent of the SS-25 mobile missile systems. SS-19 will in its last service years with no more then 30-40 missiles still in active duty. SS-27 will have reached around 100 and maybe some RS-24s will have entered service, 20-30 at most.

Any sources for your estimates? Or did you pull all that off the top of your head?

EDIT: Those of us interested in keeping up with Russian defense issues, I suggest you take a closer look at the Caucus-2008 exercises. The 76th Pskov Airborne and 7th Novorossiysk Airborne. Now look at the recent violation of Georgian air space (this time open and admitted to) by VVS aircraft a few days ago. And add that with the continuing pressure and provocations on the Georgian side of the border. The place is ready to light up like a Christmas tree.

 

[Wall83]

Any sources for your estimates? Or did you pull all that off the top of your head?

Just read info anywhere on the web and you tell me.

 

[Feanor]

Again I'm asking you for sources for your estimates. Do you have any? Please share them with us. Also those of us that read Russian please read this article and tell me if I'm hallucinating?

http://arms-expo.ru/site.xp/049057054050124051049049053.html

Did I misunderstand something or does it say that 40 tank, 97 motor-rifle, and 50 airborne batallions are to be re-armed in 2009?

 

[nevidimka]

Btw, Do anyone know the amount of defence spending that Soviet Union had during its heydays? The highest it spent?

I believe this year Russian military spending is at 35Billion.

And like some1 said, it looks like nothing much is coming out of the product line, even though massive amounts are being spent.


And its crucial for Russia to bring back its military to a powerfull state if it wants to keep itself as a single country, as the wolf is out there waiting.

 

[Waylander]

The wolf?
Who is this wolf which is threatening Russia's territory to any degree?

 

[Feanor]

Btw, Do anyone know the amount of defence spending that Soviet Union had during its heydays? The highest it spent?

I believe this year Russian military spending is at 35Billion.

And like some1 said, it looks like nothing much is coming out of the product line, even though massive amounts are being spent.


And its crucial for Russia to bring back its military to a powerfull state if it wants to keep itself as a single country, as the wolf is out there waiting.

The military budget for this year reached 36.9 billion. Entering service this year are 4 sets of BTR's (whether 80 or 90 I still don't know), 2 sets of T-90's, 1 set of BMP-3's. With the air force things are a little more fuzzy. Second regiment of Su-27's will complete SM modernization this fall (iirc September). Some Su-25 may end up modernized to SM. Some Su-24 may end up modernized to M2. Sukhoi mentioned 10 Su-34's currently undergoing assembly at NAPO. Possibly another Tu-160M produced, with another 1-2 Tu-160M's to be modernized. Continuing production of Mi-28 and Ka-50 and Ka-52, though numbers are unclear. In 2007 two Mi-28's were handed over to the army for active duty service. Possible production of the Ansat light training helicopter, and first serial run of the Yak-130 trainer.

 

[Eeshaan]

The wolf?
Who is this wolf which is threatening Russia's territory to any degree?

I think he's talking about NATO/EU/USA :

By the way, a vast amount of natural resources i.e. oil, natural gas etc., a growing economy and a large, somewhat obsolete military eager for modernization : this is how you could sum up the current situation in Russia. Russia can definitely boast about it's military growth right now, given it's current position. We can expect further claims on increasing it's military capabilities in future, followed by some muscle-flexing, as it seems like Russia will be able to achieve it's targets in the next few decades.

Although currently, Russia is in a very comfortable position and does not need to feel threatened at all by any other nation. The old bear's fangs and claws are still quite sharp, though not as sharp as 2-3 decades ago :vamp

 

[flyer19999]

Russia's future defense a joke?

The cold war is over. Russia has the beginnings of a lot of exciting and new weapon systems. Probably only a few will become operational and enter production but that should be enough. There main goal is like any other country and that is not to be caught by surprise.

 

[Wall83]

Btw, Do anyone know the amount of defence spending that Soviet Union had during its heydays? The highest it spent?

I believe this year Russian military spending is at 35Billion.

In 1988 the official Soviet military budget was 21 bilion ruble or 33 bilion dollars. However that figure was only on operations and maintenance costs and western experts belived that the actualy figure was at least ten times higher. So about 330-350 bilion dollars.
The US military budget in 1988 was 426,4 bilion dollars.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/mo-budget.htm