China's clone factory gets a rude shock

[nevidimka]

A deal to sell Su 33 to China collapsed after China asked for 2 planes or "trials".

After the cloning with the J 11B, the Russians are not to keen to see another product cloned.

http://www.en.rian.ru/russia/20090310/120493194.html

 

[ReAl PrOeLiTeZ]

i still dont see why the Russians are so aggrevated by this. J-11 is license production of Su-27, J-11B is still the licensed J-11 but with Chinese parts in the frame. China didnt violate any contract, paid the deal, havent exported it to anyone nor gives the impression of intending to. So dunno why the Russian military are so angry about a perfectly legal contract. Isral buys American F-15 and installs their own electronics and weapon suites anyway, Americans arent that worried. Its not like China is claiming the J-11 as a new fighter nor has it given it a new designation. Its still using the license name of the Su-27 given by the Russians J-11.

And after the deals of 2 Su-33 which ended talks years ago, by the way this news is nothing new its old news reworded, with some new information. After further talks Russia wouldnt agree on delivering 2 Su-33, they renegotiated it to 14 Su-33, but Russia says at least +24 Su-33 would be sufficient in restarting the production line of Su-33, since its no longer in production.

 

[Feanor]

Exactly. China doesn't just want the Su-33. It wants a modernized Su-33M. Restarting the production line, and putting at least some work into developing this modernization wouldn't be worth it for an order of 14 units. Even if we take it for granted that teh AVMF Su-33s will get modernized as part of that production run as well, the export potential for a Su-33M is close to 0 unless China wants additional ones after getting the initial batch. Given that China is experimenting with the T-10K prototype to produce it's own navalized Flanker, I doubt that there will be major follow-on orders after the initial batch. Hence why we're reluctant to put in the investment for such a small order.

 

[SkolZkiy]

Chinese need something for tests =) 2 plains, I totally agree with Feanor, vore then this there was writen that only an order for 24+ AC is worth all this work.

i still dont see why the Russians are so aggrevated by this. J-11 is license production of Su-27, J-11B is still the licensed J-11 but with Chinese parts in the frame. China didnt violate any contract, paid the deal, havent exported it to anyone nor gives the impression of intending to. So dunno why the Russian military are so angry about a perfectly legal contract. Isral buys American F-15 and installs their own electronics and weapon suites anyway, Americans arent that worried. Its not like China is claiming the J-11 as a new fighter nor has it given it a new designation. Its still using the license name of the Su-27 given by the Russians J-11.

They signed an agreement for 200 AC but after getting 100 of them, Chinese disbanded this agreement and began to produce their own J-11B.
BUT there is a big BUT - they still cannot pruduce capable engines and still buy AL-31 from Russia =) And modification of AL-31 on Su-33 is 10% more powerful then standard engines. That's why our MD is very engry=)

 

[ReAl PrOeLiTeZ]

Chinese need something for tests =) 2 plains, I totally agree with Feanor, vore then this there was writen that only an order for 24+ AC is worth all this work.



They signed an agreement for 200 AC but after getting 100 of them, Chinese disbanded this agreement and began to produce their own J-11B.
BUT there is a big BUT - they still cannot pruduce capable engines and still buy AL-31 from Russia =) And modification of AL-31 on Su-33 is 10% more powerful then standard engines. That's why our MD is very engry=)

i know that you just repeated what i basically said, and then told me what my own words said. 200 license kits 97 built, not 100 like most people think. production stopped, airframe production kept going, chinese parts went into the plane. russians are angered over nothing, china wants su-33, russia fears of them using the airframes and installing weapons, electronics, engines instead of purchasing russian ones. in the end russia want china to buy more russian military technology but dont incoporate it into their own design.

j-11b or j-11bs in the end is still using the designation j-11 which russian gave for su-27 license production which it gave to china. no contract broken. no claiming rights china has done saying its their own fighter, or exported. (like i said in my first post on this thread).

russia wont sit for anything less then beneficial huge profit margin, and china wont sit for anything over priced, undertechnology. if russia wants china to accept fighters and china from copying them, then make a deal that china wont bother incorporating. make an airframe, have dual use of russian and chinese weapons, optional electronics, engines are russians only though. what china doesnt like is its not capable for flankers of russian produced to dual use chinese munitions.

spoon fed information and analysis, no confusion or mix ups. straight foward and simply post.

 

[SkolZkiy]

russia wont sit for anything less then beneficial huge profit margin, and china wont sit for anything over priced, undertechnology.

Russian weapons are much more cheaper then Us or EU . so this is untruthful.

About numbers - I rounded them, sory me for this. About airframes - they are made totally in China, Chinese have no license because theyDISBANDED the agreement.
Look at India and Su-30MKI - they are producing LICENSED AC with their homemade parts. Also there is an open architecture so India can install any capable western parts.
And by the way there is a rumour that Chinese now are trying to revive old agreement for last 100 AC.

 

[Schumacher]

There were also many complaints from the Chinese of Russia failing to deliver on quality/technology, price & schedule which pushed China to work on their own J-11. Don't think Russia can complain too much really.

 

[ReAl PrOeLiTeZ]

Russian weapons are much more cheaper then Us or EU . so this is untruthful.

About numbers - I rounded them, sory me for this. About airframes - they are made totally in China, Chinese have no license because theyDISBANDED the agreement.
Look at India and Su-30MKI - they are producing LICENSED AC with their homemade parts. Also there is an open architecture so India can install any capable western parts.
And by the way there is a rumour that Chinese now are trying to revive old agreement for last 100 AC.

umm lets see sovremenny destroyers were overpriced, the carrier for india is overpriced basically turning into a money well, failed delivery times of weapons. Russian military hardware are always cheaper then that of Western counterparts, everybody knows that. China were paying for equipment that Russia, being overpriced. Su-27 delivery, didnt deliver the avionics nor engines license. Russia wont deliver military hardware to any nation out of good will if the profits arent significant anymore. But Russia shouldnt be complaining they should offer what China has remaining interest in while they still can cash in.

china cancelled further shipments of avionic suites, weapon system, etc...china stilled paid anyway...airframe of russian kits were still being used. remember the simple J-11 fighter was useless to china, so why keep pouring money when you know the problem is their. Russia couldve offered upgrade kits much earlier for multi-role capability.

but russia should start the su-33 production line anyway since their introducing carriers in the next decade, and nothing seems to fufill the role of carrier fighter. Mig-29 yes i know, but it lacks range, payload, battle effectivness such as the Su-33

 

[nevidimka]

There were also many complaints from the Chinese of Russia failing to deliver on quality/technology, price & schedule which pushed China to work on their own J-11. Don't think Russia can complain too much really.

That could also be seen as a perfect cover up to legitimize their cloning. China perhaps in the beginning thought it would not be able to successfully clone the high end flanker planes. But after 100 examples being built and they were able to clone some parts, decided to cancel the deal?

I think Russian hesitancy is more than just the Flankers. It also had and issue regarding the multiple other russian products that were cloned after the intial deals collapsed on the negotiating table.

 

[Feanor]

Russia plans to produce a new navalized aircraft instead of using the Su-33. As for the example, this really isn't about the cloning problem. This is about the fact that restarting production for a run of 14 aircraft isn't worth it.

 

[luccloud]

That could also be seen as a perfect cover up to legitimize their cloning. China perhaps in the beginning thought it would not be able to successfully clone the high end flanker planes. But after 100 examples being built and they were able to clone some parts, decided to cancel the deal?

I think Russian hesitancy is more than just the Flankers. It also had and issue regarding the multiple other russian products that were cloned after the intial deals collapsed on the negotiating table.

Well, juding from the service India is getting, China's story is more belivable. When will the aircraft carrier be deliveried? And for How much?

 

[crobato]

That could also be seen as a perfect cover up to legitimize their cloning. China perhaps in the beginning thought it would not be able to successfully clone the high end flanker planes. But after 100 examples being built and they were able to clone some parts, decided to cancel the deal?

I think Russian hesitancy is more than just the Flankers. It also had and issue regarding the multiple other russian products that were cloned after the intial deals collapsed on the negotiating table.

There is nothing high end about those 105 kits that were delivered. They're all basic Su-27SKs, decades old technologies.

The J-11B uses a lot of indigenous components from the radars, avionics, EMS to the hydraulics and flight control systems. A higher degree of composite is also used. It has neat tricks of its own like a wide angle HUD and UV MAWS. The radar is a slotted array, a type of radar that gimbals with much greater flexibility than a twist cassegrain, not to mention the improved signal gain.

 

[tphuang]

I will simply copy & paste my reply on another forum, since the arguments by people who haven't read the original article seems to be the same regardless of where I go.

First with regard to the J-11B situation
1. They paid for ToT of su-27sk and royalty for 200 aircrafts, they produced less than that with the basic variant. They are not likely to get to that 200 aircraft threshold anytime soon.
2. Russians was not willing to offer an upgrade other than N-001VE + R-77, which was not acceptable by Chinese standard, so they decided to go with their own radar set and such
3. China is allowed under the contract to indigenize the entire aircraft, which is what they will end up doing.
4. China is not allowed to export the aircraft, nor do they have any intention to do so.

Since no one here has read the original article other than me, there seems to be a lot of misconception. Basically, Kanwa had one of its typical interviews with Sukhoi, which obviously always only tells one side of the story. And as all the Indians know, the Russians are the most honest negotiator and never go back on their word. So, it went something like this:
1. China wanted only 2 su-33s
2. Russia afraid of China copying, so they would not budge
3. China then raised it to 14, Russians still aren't satisfied, instead asking for a minimum of 24, because that's needed to keep their production run profitable.

Even from this, it's a typical negotiation, I don't see what the big deal is.

Let's put it this way, China has its own naval fighter program in pretty advanced stage. It's going to ready to make first flight soon. The only reason it needed even 14 su-33s was that the domestic program might not be ready on time. And more specifically, the naval airwing school needs some planes to start training. It's kind of risky to have a new aircraft carrier and a new naval fighter at the same time. But honestly, if the Russians don't supply su-33s, it's not going to stop China's program. They are just going to loose sales + revenue from servicing/maintenance after afterward. If we go by my current timetable of naval flanker being ready for flight testing and training by 2012 and achieving IOC by 2015, then that will probably give it about 10 years before the next generation of naval fighter for China should be developed.

 

[Feanor]

Only one thing to add. The point of non-profitability of the small production run may be true. You seem to discount it by saying that it's a loss of sales and revenue. It may indeed simply be unprofitable to restart production for a run of 14 aircraft.

 

[ReAl PrOeLiTeZ]

Russia plans to produce a new navalized aircraft instead of using the Su-33. As for the example, this really isn't about the cloning problem. This is about the fact that restarting production for a run of 14 aircraft isn't worth it.

thank you someone finally understood my post. Its a loss to start the production line up with less then 24 units built let alone 14 or 2. unless russia starts building for themselves too, for their carriers being built.

 

[tonyget]

This is about the fact that restarting production for a run of 14 aircraft isn't worth it.

Agreed, that's exactly the reason why the deal is off

 

[exported_kiwi]

The funny thing about the J-11 is that, when I've spoken to Chinese folks, in China, they claim that it's their design and when I point out that it's a slightly modified SU-27, of Russian design, their looks could kill! The mindset of these people is incredible and they think they're infallible and invincible!

 

[ReAl PrOeLiTeZ]

The funny thing about the J-11 is that, when I've spoken to Chinese folks, in China, they claim that it's their design and when I point out that it's a slightly modified SU-27, of Russian design, their looks could kill! The mindset of these people is incredible and they think they're infallible and invincible!

well thats what everyone thinks of their own nation military, so singling out China, is a bit foolish. If I went to America and said their M1 Abraham tank was copy of German cannon and British armour, they would be gutted and shocked, and anger.

 

[IPA35]

Russians new arriers will not be equiped with SU-33, right?
(Mig-29K and naval version of PAK-FA).

 

[Feanor]

The MiG-29K will not be bought as far as I know. MiG-35 allegedly will.