Caucasian Powderkeg?

[Feanor]

So Russian news outlets have been flooded with reports of hostilities and increased Georgian troop presence, this time not around Abkhazia, but around S. Ossetia. There have allegedly been several gun battles, both sides claiming they were firing in self defense, and reports of Georgian aircraft flying over the conflict zone, in addition to artillery and more Georgian troops being pulled into the conflict zone. There are also reports of refugees, women and children, from S. Ossetia crossing the Russian border, as well as Russian volunteers moving into S. Ossetia.

I don't know if anyone else has been following the events unfolding, but do you think full scale war will errupt? Will Russia support S. Ossetia if war does start? So far it doesn't seem likely that Russia and Georgia will go to war directly over this, but covert support and "volunteers" look more then likely.

 

[merocaine]

I would certainly take it seriously.
Russia views the prospect of Georgia joining NATO with undisguised horror, I'm not sure where they would stop if they were provoked by Georgia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eVU...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

from the Russia Today website

 

[Chrom]

There will be no big war as Georgia realistically cant expect to win against S. Ossetia supported (even indirectly) by Russia. By that, keep in mind, russian direct help is also possible. Georgia will not risk.

However, it is fully in Georgian interests to keep this conflict reasonable hot, forcing S. Ossetia to spend large economical efforts for military purposes, and denying any income from tourism (main S. Ossetia income)

All that said, we can conclude what direct large-scale Georgian attack is in S. Ossetia and Abkhazia interests. In that case they would have great chance to end this war decisively - 2nd Georgian defeat will realistically end all Georgian claims on these republics.

 

[Chrom]

I was wrong. I greatly underestimated Georgian stupidity. Georgia officially just declared war against S. Ossetia. Heavy attack on S. Ossetia already began

P.S. As i said, full-scale conflict will benefit S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.

 

[drandul]

I was wrong. I greatly underestimated Georgian stupidity. Georgia officially just declared war against S. Ossetia. Heavy attack on S. Ossetia already began

P.S. As i said, full-scale conflict will benefit S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Seems it is true - Georgia started storm of Chinvali (south osetia capital)- I wonder what is background for such escalation of conflict. Why now?..Is it linked to olimpic games? or may be US elections? or some thing else? I mean that news from Beijing can cover news from zone of conflict? Is there any info in western media about battles - seems its already full scale war with tanks and artelery battles and dozens of killed last day?..
What is peaceceapers responsibilities and abilities in such hot conflict? I mean what kind of measures can they use?

 

[Chrom]

Seems it is true - Georgia started storm of Chinvali (south osetia capital)- I wonder what is background for such escalation of conflict. Why now?..Is it linked to olimpic games? or may be US elections? or some thing else? I mean that news from Beijing can cover news from zone of conflict? Is there any info in western media about battles - seems its already full scale war with tanks and artelery battles and dozens of killed last day?..
What is peaceceapers responsibilities and abilities in such hot conflict? I mean what kind of measures can they use?

Peacekeepers, theoretically, can both restrain and involve in the conflict directly. Any of 2 outcomes are "standard" in international relations.

But if peacekeepers choose to directly involve in the conflict, this would automatically mean direct Russian help on S. Ossetia side. In that case it doesnt matter what abilities have peacekeepers themselves as whole russuan caucasian battle group will be involved.

The russian caucasian battle group have pretty impressive abilities regarding striking capablties, and what is much more important - is at high alert level. So we can expect russian response right now, this night.

 

[eaf-f16]

Georgia claims it captured five villages in S.Ossetia. A report from AFP says that Georgia launched an attack on S.Ossetia. It says that Georgia has lost 10 soldiers in the fighting and several others wounded. The rebels say that 2 civilians have been killed by Georgian fire and two others in serious condition.

The Georgians say they're offering "broad autonomy" for S.Ossetia saying that Russia could serve as a "guarantor" of South Ossetian autonomy.

Georgia launches attack on rebel region: interior ministry

Official: Georgian Forces Capture Five Villages

 

[gf0012-aust]

Peacekeepers, theoretically, can both restrain and involve in the conflict directly. Any of 2 outcomes are "standard" in international relations.

Not the case with the UN (eg Rwanda and early stages of Somalia, Sudan and E Timor).

One reason why Aust has a high number of PTSD cases from ex serviceman out of UN Missions is due to ridiculous ROE's set by the UN.

If the UN had any guts they'd let soldiers intervene to protect civilians against attacks (esp Rwanda and early E Timor as stellar examples).

It's an organisation that needs rebuilding as it serves little benefit in it's current model.

 

[Feanor]

THe U.N. has nothing to do with this conflict other then talking about it. The mandate of the peacekeepers is from the CIS. Anyways 8 Ossetian villages have been captured and a car column with the Russian president of the North Ossetian region and humanitarian help was bombed by Georgian Su-25's. I fully expect Russian air superiority and retaliatory air strikes. Also South Ossetian president spefically said that he is not going to ask for Russian help so far, but is accepting volunteers and will try to defeat the Georgian offensive on their own.

As for the North Caucus Military District, it includes several regiments of Su-24M and Su-25. Iirc it was the one to receive the new Iskander-M missile complexes (iirc one brigade of them). It also has a large force of contract soldiers, as the entire Chechen contingent is contract soldiers. Georgia is also within range of Russia Strategic Airforce, and given Russian military doctrine, it may involve nuclear weapons, possibly a demonstrative strike against a less populated area, if Russia itself becomes threatened.

 

[eaf-f16]

THe U.N. has nothing to do with this conflict other then talking about it. The mandate of the peacekeepers is from the CIS. Anyways 8 Ossetian villages have been captured and a car column with the Russian president of the North Ossetian region and humanitarian help was bombed by Georgian Su-25's. I fully expect Russian air superiority and retaliatory air strikes. Also South Ossetian president spefically said that he is not going to ask for Russian help so far, but is accepting volunteers and will try to defeat the Georgian offensive on their own.

As for the North Caucus Military District, it includes several regiments of Su-24M and Su-25. Iirc it was the one to receive the new Iskander-M missile complexes (iirc one brigade of them). It also has a large force of contract soldiers, as the entire Chechen contingent is contract soldiers. Georgia is also within range of Russia Strategic Airforce, and given Russian military doctrine, it may involve nuclear weapons, possibly a demonstrative strike against a less populated area, if Russia itself becomes threatened.

It's not going to go that far. Did Russia demonstrate with nukes in Chechnya?

 

[-=R!T=-]

So Russian news outlets have been flooded with reports of hostilities and increased Georgian troop presence, this time not around Abkhazia, but around S. Ossetia. There have allegedly been several gun battles, both sides claiming they were firing in self defense, and reports of Georgian aircraft flying over the conflict zone, in addition to artillery and more Georgian troops being pulled into the conflict zone. There are also reports of refugees, women and children, from S. Ossetia crossing the Russian border, as well as Russian volunteers moving into S. Ossetia.

I don't know if anyone else has been following the events unfolding, but do you think full scale war will errupt? Will Russia support S. Ossetia if war does start? So far it doesn't seem likely that Russia and Georgia will go to war directly over this, but covert support and "volunteers" look more then likely.

Situation is complicated for Russia because Georgia borders with Russia...So when RF ll air strikes Georgia georgians can send terroristics(or saboteurs) groups to terror civilians ....Recent explosion in Sochi beach confirms my words...

 

[-=R!T=-]

I would certainly take it seriously.
Russia views the prospect of Georgia joining NATO with undisguised horror, I'm not sure where they would stop if they were provoked by Georgia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eVU...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

from the Russia Today website

Situation is very simple....Georgian president wants in NATO but charter of NATO bans countries with unsolved territorial conflicts

 

[-=R!T=-]

There will be no big war as Georgia realistically cant expect to win against S. Ossetia supported (even indirectly) by Russia. By that, keep in mind, russian direct help is also possible. Georgia will not risk.

However, it is fully in Georgian interests to keep this conflict reasonable hot, forcing S. Ossetia to spend large economical efforts for military purposes, and denying any income from tourism (main S. Ossetia income)

All that said, we can conclude what direct large-scale Georgian attack is in S. Ossetia and Abkhazia interests. In that case they would have great chance to end this war decisively - 2nd Georgian defeat will realistically end all Georgian claims on these republics.

Saakashvilli said day before we solve S osetia conflict only in conference form...and began attack at the night...like Germany in WW2...Georgians began artillery fire at civilians blocks of capital when civilians sleep...They began war at time of OLympic games ...its CRUELTY...

 

[-=R!T=-]

Seems it is true - Georgia started storm of Chinvali (south osetia capital)- I wonder what is background for such escalation of conflict. Why now?..Is it linked to olimpic games? or may be US elections? or some thing else? I mean that news from Beijing can cover news from zone of conflict? Is there any info in western media about battles - seems its already full scale war with tanks and artelery battles and dozens of killed last day?..
What is peaceceapers responsibilities and abilities in such hot conflict? I mean what kind of measures can they use?

WE ALL know who allow Georgia to attack...WE all know who have advantage in media propoganda...Target to involve russians in conflict during US president election...

 

[-=R!T=-]

I dont know what RF answers...but it have some reasons to...
1)Fire at peacekeepers
some were wounded
2)Air Strike at cars with food and clothes to osetians
3)There r many people with russian passports
Last news /// FRom Engels airdrome flied up some backfiers

 

[-=R!T=-]

It's not going to go that far. Did Russia demonstrate with nukes in Chechnya?

ONLY ONE COUNTRY IN HISTORY OF WARS is used nukes against civilians....

 

[Feanor]

Georgia accused Russia of a bombing strike againts Georgia, and claimed to have shot down one aircraft. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denies that an aircraft was shot down. Georgian tanks are assaulting Ts'hinvali. As for terrorists, Georgia has very little direct border with Russia, most of the border is controlled by S. Ossetia and Abkhazia. I'm still waiting for an allout airstrike by the VVS.

EDIT: I'm honestly very much hoping that Russia puts Georgia in it's place. My comment about a demonstrative nuclear strike is not a realistic suggestion, but rather a reflection on what I would have chosen to do in the situation. I honestly hope Russia does something to stop this.

Also Georgia accused Russia of bombing the city Gori. On a different site (arms-expo.ru) it says that S. Ossetian president mentioned massed Georgian troops near Gori. Finally the same site reports 11 S. Ossetian villages occupied by Georgia, with Georgian troops inside Ts'hinvali. Russian response needs to be quick. And more then just scolding words from Mr Putin in Beijing.

 

[-=R!T=-]

Georgia accused Russia of a bombing strike againts Georgia, and claimed to have shot down one aircraft. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denies that an aircraft was shot down. Georgian tanks are assaulting Ts'hinvali. As for terrorists, Georgia has very little direct border with Russia, most of the border is controlled by S. Ossetia and Abkhazia. I'm still waiting for an allout airstrike by the VVS.

IT is lie about russians air strikes i think...Russia wait for...I dont heard about shooted down aircrafts (my variant it was one of southern osetians SU...IF IT WAS...but last night georgian media declared capture Tskhinvali...so ??? )

 

[Feanor]

RIA Novosti has no communication with their correspondent on the ground to confirm. We'll have to wait for news.

 

[-=R!T=-]

My variant is involvin nortern osetians in conflict...there is tank division from osetians tankists only...Maybe chechen division VOSTOK or ZAPAD land forces...they r really good in saboteur war and strong soldiers with traditions...but only in case of russian military answer...