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CANADA / NATO and 2% of GDP Budget

This is a discussion on CANADA / NATO and 2% of GDP Budget within the Geo-strategic Issues forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; With last nights election one of the comments during the run up involved the president elects statement that Allies need ...


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Old November 9th, 2016   #1
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CANADA / NATO and 2% of GDP Budget

With last nights election one of the comments during the run up involved the president elects statement that Allies need to take more of a stake in protecting themselves.

For Canada, that means a significant increase to defence expenditure as we hover around 1% of GDP, half the NATO target.

Even a half a percent increase would have a significant impact on the procurement of equipment.

What do readers think will happen?

Nothing, something?

Will the new president elect enact his promise of pulling back from the NATO Collective?
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Old November 9th, 2016   #2
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It will be interesting to see what junior does with respect to meeting the 2% GDP requirement along with several other NATO members. I guess the other factor will be how much BS does Trump's various promises contain? If he is serious about trashing NAFTA and other trade agreements then 2% of our future GDP might not be much different from our 1.x% of our current GDP!
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Old November 9th, 2016   #3
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Well, it's incredible hard to determin what of his wide range of proposals the new president elect will actualy be trying to implement once in office.

I think the reduction of spending on NATO might be in the more reasonable range as it would have a direct positiv effect on the budgets for other things and as is the USA are pretty much capable to hold the rest of NATO somewhat hostage.

What are they gonna do? Leave NATO?

The other question is how many members will be able to adapt and step up / be able to increase spending as we talk about a lot of money here. NATO would definitly have some troubles I can't see the eastern member states to be too happy about this but as I said, it's too early to make any predictions how all of this is going to play out but I expect some resistance from the congress etc. since the republicans never fully stood behind him.

I think this election leavs us all with a lot of questionsmark on all kind of questions. How will the US continue their engagement in Syria? What is with Ukraine and how will russia react to all of this?
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Old November 9th, 2016   #4
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The percentage spending of the Baltic members is over and above because of the direct threat from Russian forces across their borders. Black Sea member nations are those less able to meet financial commitments.

It was interesting to note the arrival of the Kuzenetzov battle fleet arriving off of Syria on election day.

As to my own thoughts on Canada's financial commitment to 2% it will only happen if the US pulls away from NATO or if things go for a @#$%.

A look at the difference in defence forces is painfully visible when one compares Canada vs Australia. Even with their pains with Collins, Tiger and Armindale patrol boats Canada is decades behind in acquisitions.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #5
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What are they gonna do? Leave NATO?
That's always a possibility however remote. A lot will now depend on how good the advice is that Trump gets from his advisers and whether or not he chooses to listen to them. Interesting times ahead the say the least.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #6
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As to my own thoughts on Canada's financial commitment to 2% it will only happen if the US pulls away from NATO or if things go for a @#$%.
If the US pulls away from NATO I would think there would be less incentive for Canada to try for 2% unless the Euros go up to 2% themselves and use the recent free trade agreement as leverage for Canada to match the figure. If $hit starts to happen, it may be too late for Canadian investment to make a difference.

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A look at the difference in defence forces is painfully visible when one compares Canada vs Australia. Even with their pains with Collins, Tiger and Armindale patrol boats Canada is decades behind in acquisitions.
This is more or less correct but Australian defence needs reflect their geographical reality and the electorate understands this, hence the broader support for national defence as compared to Canada.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #7
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That's always a possibility however remote. A lot will now depend on how good the advice is that Trump gets from his advisers and whether or not he chooses to listen to them. Interesting times ahead the say the least.
Well that possibility is pretty limited by the actual capabilities and interests of the different nations.

One could say that Canada is pretty far away from Ukraine but one could also say they are pretty close to the arctic and the interest in the potential ressources that could be claimed by bordering states have already led to some tensions.

I don't see a Nation throwing away the immense detterence a NATO membership is to foreign powers that easily.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #8
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There would have to be a massive shift in Canadian politics for a 2% target to be looked at as it would require support from both parties.

I don't see the % of the GDP increasing so the Canadian government really need to build there forces up around how much they are willing to spend. At the moment they have a force larger then Australia being funded at 2/3rds that of the ADF. If they aren't willing to increase the budget then they will have to scrap around 1/3rd of the force to free up funds needed to outfit and maintain a modern force.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #9
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Junior is currently running a deficit approaching $30 billion CDN while only spending a little over 1% of GDP on defence so an increase for defence is zero. In fact, Junior is such a C-F I fear that either the RCN or RCAF will take a major hit, likely the the latter.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #10
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That's always a possibility however remote. A lot will now depend on how good the advice is that Trump gets from his advisers and whether or not he chooses to listen to them. Interesting times ahead the say the least.
True, the 'inner circles' ability to manage his impulsiveness and tendency to lash out will be critical. For Canada it could be a real opportunity to pick up talent, not just individuals but companies should the domestic US environment deteriorate.
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Old November 9th, 2016   #11
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For Canada it could be a real opportunity to pick up talent, not just individuals but companies should the domestic US environment deteriorate.
Ontario and Quebec are both horribly run provinces so don't expect a rush by disillusioned Americans to either of these places and even less so for companies. Vancouver's a great location for many perhaps but a basic house starts at 1 million plus. If Trump doesn't mellow a bit then maybe an exodus is possible.
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Old November 10th, 2016   #12
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Here's an Ottawa Citizen article on the Trump effect for future defence spending. Opting in on missile defence is likely but as for 2% of GDP, I don't see it happening if NAFTA is terminated. On the other hand, a threat to dump NAFTA unless 2% happens could work. The comment on ship based anti missile defence and the RCN's interest in it will be something to watch.

Trump’s victory will put pressure on Liberals to boost defence spending say analysts | Ottawa Citizen
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Old November 10th, 2016   #13
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Here's an Ottawa Citizen article on the Trump effect for future defence spending. Opting in on missile defence is likely but as for 2% of GDP, I don't see it happening if NAFTA is terminated. On the other hand, a threat to dump NAFTA unless 2% happens could work. The comment on ship based anti missile defence and the RCN's interest in it will be something to watch.

Trump’s victory will put pressure on Liberals to boost defence spending say analysts | Ottawa Citizen
That threat could very well work and no point going to the WTO because Trump is talking about pulling out of that.
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Old November 10th, 2016   #14
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The percentage spending of the Baltic members is over and above because of the direct threat from Russian forces across their borders. Black Sea member nations are those less able to meet financial commitments.
As of 2015
Latvia - 1.1
Lithuania - 1.1
Estonia - 2.0

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Old February 13th, 2017   #15
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As of 2015
Latvia - 1.1
Lithuania - 1.1
Estonia - 2.0

Military budgets for 2017 in Latvia and Lithuania are 1.8 % already. Progress is very fast. Nevertheless It wold be better for them to have at least 3%.
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