2nd Korean war

Ozzy Blizzard

New Member
ok guys how do you think it would pan out north and south went at it with no outside intervention? ok weapon and supply shipments from allies but no direct intervention.
 

Rich

Member
Ozzy Blizzard said:
ok guys how do you think it would pan out north and south went at it with no outside intervention? ok weapon and supply shipments from allies but no direct intervention.
American/Allied forces would be in it from the beginning. Any scenerio that doesnt include that would be unrealistic.
 

contedicavour

New Member
Rich said:
American/Allied forces would be in it from the beginning. Any scenerio that doesnt include that would be unrealistic.
China and Russia are vital to preserve the North Korea armed forces' operational status... if both Koreas were hypothetically isolated from the rest of the world, South Korea's industry would be able to resupply their armed forces much better than NK.
Besides, as I was writing in the other thread, NK conscript troops are in a very bad shape (underfed and only basic training), so much so that SK's fear is more of a collapse of the NK regime than of an invasion coming from the north.

cheers
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
The NK's can't project and maneuver their huge army, since they won't be able to concentrate in the face of the technologically superior SK. What NK has is a static defense with a (N)BC and huge first day of war artillery barrage as a threat.

Anyway, I suspect NK only have the fuel necessary for the shortest of wars.
 
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Rich

Member
contedicavour said:
China and Russia are vital to preserve the North Korea armed forces' operational status... if both Koreas were hypothetically isolated from the rest of the world, South Korea's industry would be able to resupply their armed forces much better than NK.
Besides, as I was writing in the other thread, NK conscript troops are in a very bad shape (underfed and only basic training), so much so that SK's fear is more of a collapse of the NK regime than of an invasion coming from the north.

cheers
And yet its yank troops walking the line of the DMZ, with 37,000 more in country along with a large contingent of hardware. Add to that the plans to reinforce them in the days following such an attack. Conversely the Russians and Chinese dont have troops in NK, or at most training troops, and to think they would send some if the North attacks is a real stretch. Anyways, Yanks would be dieing in the opening minutes of the War and further American involvement would be assured.

Not that it would matter. There is no way, in 2006, the North could successfully invade the South. South Korea is in a far stronger position then the North, far stronger then ever. The South has twice the population, can muster 4.5 million reservists, has far, far higher standards of training and morale. The South is several generations ahead in almost every military system in comparison to the North. Add to all this the hundreds of thousands of US forces tasked to come to South Koreas aid and the entire 7'th fleet coming down on the midgets hair piece.......

I think everyone involved has counted the beans. Most of all the North Koreans. Thats why they want nukes. Because they acknowledge their conventional shortfalls.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Rich said:
And yet its yank troops walking the line of the DMZ, with 37,000 more in country along with a large contingent of hardware. Add to that the plans to reinforce them in the days following such an attack. Conversely the Russians and Chinese dont have troops in NK, or at most training troops, and to think they would send some if the North attacks is a real stretch. Anyways, Yanks would be dieing in the opening minutes of the War and further American involvement would be assured.

Not that it would matter. There is no way, in 2006, the North could successfully invade the South. South Korea is in a far stronger position then the North, far stronger then ever. The South has twice the population, can muster 4.5 million reservists, has far, far higher standards of training and morale. The South is several generations ahead in almost every military system in comparison to the North. Add to all this the hundreds of thousands of US forces tasked to come to South Koreas aid and the entire 7'th fleet coming down on the midgets hair piece.......

I think everyone involved has counted the beans. Most of all the North Koreans. Thats why they want nukes. Because they acknowledge their conventional shortfalls.
IIRC US troop numbers in SK are down to 22,000-24,000 (One Bde went to Iraq and didn't rotate back). Also, the US has withdrawn from the border. It is useless to get your best units hammered in static positions instead of keeping them in reserve for maneuver battle.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Grand Danois said:
IIRC US troop numbers in SK are down to 22,000-24,000 (One Bde went to Iraq and didn't rotate back). Also, the US has withdrawn from the border. It is useless to get your best units hammered in static positions instead of keeping them in reserve for maneuver battle.
And the combat value of those US troops is mostly in their MLRS. The infantry & armour add a few percent to the ROK forces in static defence, a bit more in mobile warfare. The MLRS add a larger amount to the artillery, especially if held back out of range of NK tube artillery. But in any case, 90% of the US contribution to S. Koreas defence on day 1 of any war is in the aircraft in Korea & Japan. The ground troops main job is to die (some of them, anyway) so as to guarantee US involvement.
 

Rich

Member
American troops at the DMZ was a Political message for the Nks. And unless something has changed there, they are still there. And I never said we have large units up there. I think the real threat the NKs have is they can devastate much of the peninsula if they attack. They have invested heavily in artillery tubes, and with Seoul within artillery range they can cause a lot of damage and loss of life.

But a lot has changed since the Korean war. I'd say one of the biggest is the fact that Allied forces can now operate 24/7, indeed prefer to operate at night. I also suspect there would be defections enmasse by North Korean forces.

Its really a war nobody needs right now.
 

Soliton

New Member
Verified Defense Pro
Ozzy Blizzard said:
ok guys how do you think it would pan out north and south went at it with no outside intervention? ok weapon and supply shipments from allies but no direct intervention.
I would say that is an improbable scenario.

North Korea is not capable of sustaining their forces for long, their Supply Chains are vulnerable to disruption and would remain so were they to receive logistical support from either Russia or China
 

fylr71

New Member
Even China and Russia would be extremely unlikely to support NK. At this point Beijing is fed up with NK and Russia would have no reason to support NK.
 

contedicavour

New Member
fylr71 said:
Even China and Russia would be extremely unlikely to support NK. At this point Beijing is fed up with NK and Russia would have no reason to support NK.
Direct support from Russia no, I agree.
However Russia might have an interest to keep US armed forces overstretched with Korean, Iraqi, Afghani fronts simultaneously, hence no support for real sanctions at the UN, for example.

cheers
 

mickk

New Member
You only have to look back to the 50s and the fighting withdrawl of Australian troops at Kapyong to see what is necessary to beat the Nth Koreans.

Absolutley maniacal brain washed suicide troops in their hundreds of thousands all determined to die for their God Kym mentally Ill. They used to pour down valleys like a river in flood.

Minus 50 degrees in winter, valleys of death. Impossible to hold ground in Nth Korea in winter.

Cant possibly be won on land. It would have to be a massive preemptive strike on command and control targets and also simultaneous strikes on thousands of rocket sites. Otherwise Seoul is gone and so are millions of people.

More likely now is assasination of Kym Il sook.

Less likely is a coalition of US, China, Russia mass attack that would work but would be costly.

The US is stretched to the limit. Not enough heavy armour to do the damage. No where near enough aircraft and munitons to do the job quickly and surely.

Chinese ground forces would be ideal from the north and east whist the rest of the willing came up from the south and east.

I dont think they can take out just the nuke sites as this would cause to much of a response from Nth Korea.

Maybe nothin will happen for months.

Its beautiful timing by the Nth Koreans. US and UK elections coming up, world turmoil over terrorism, forces stetched to the limit in the unstable middle east.

Intersting TV tonight. We were shown the room where Australian Foreign Minister Downer was giving the Nth Korean Ambassador a "severe talking to" The photo on the wall that showed a night shot of the Korean Peninsula was pointed out. Sth Korea all bright and shiny and Nth korea black.

The Nth Korean Ambassador looked very amused and smug.

The entire population of North Korea would envade South korea if they were left alone. They would simply march down in their millions and gladly die in their millions.
 
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contedicavour

New Member
Agree that China and SK want a solution that does not involve war.
That's why I'd expect a coup in Pyongyang with the current dictator replaced by a general closer to China. That would help NK evolve along the lines of early 1980s China, ie economic opening but limited political opening.
Let's see.

cheers
 

Subangite

New Member
contedicavour said:
Agree that China and SK want a solution that does not involve war.
That's why I'd expect a coup in Pyongyang with the current dictator replaced by a general closer to China. That would help NK evolve along the lines of early 1980s China, ie economic opening but limited political opening.
Let's see.

cheers
I think a belligerent NK would not be tolerated by any country, China and Russia included. That said the NK regime is highly erratic, they are in possession of WMD's and are seen to be able to strike most of inhabited and industrial Asia. I think the world would be wise not to instigate and agitate NK. Embargoes and sanctions obviously have not worked, I would argue that they have strengthen the NK resolve for such weapons as a means of defence, since technological superiority is definately not on their side in their region.

Perhaps a more innovative approach would be better, one that leaves NK away from acts of desperation. I believe the Chinese Ambassador to the UN alluded to this recently when commenting on the US position with regards to NK, I can't remember his exact words though. In a press breifing President Bush has called on diplomacy, UN international pressure to address the issue and has ruled out attacks on NK. I think this helps.
 

contedicavour

New Member
I hope so. Current sanctions call for no armed response, embargo on missiles, WMD related technology, heavy weapons (from jets to MBTs), and, helpfully, luxury products such as the wines, cognac, sushi and seafood Kim Jong Il loves to import... plus an "invitation" to inspect NK ships.

cheers
 
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