This is a discussion on Second Korean War? within the Geo-Strategic Defense forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. ...
A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. If North Korea does attack South Korea I expect it to start a short worldwide conflict INCLUDING IRAN, the U.S., ISRAEL, CUBA, RUSSIA, CHINA, JAPAN, PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AL-QAEDA.
If In stead of a Korean War, WWIII began, how do you expect it to pan out and who do you expect the Axis and Allies to pan out.
I see
Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. If North Korea does attack South Korea I expect it to start a short worldwide conflict INCLUDING IRAN, the U.S., ISRAEL, CUBA, RUSSIA, CHINA, JAPAN, PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AL-QAEDA.
If In stead of a Korean War, WWIII began, how do you expect it to pan out and who do you expect the Axis and Allies to pan out.
I see
Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
vs.
People's China
Iran
North Korea
Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
England
Australia
most of NATO will lend aid
vs.
People's China
Iran
Turkey (for some reason i feel as if there becoming pro-iran and moving away from US.Israel relations.
North Korea
You are picking nations out of a hat, greatly exagerating the scale out or proportion to reality, not to mention you arent even calling nations by their proper names.
England = United Kingdom
People's China = Peoples Republic of China
I wonder how some of these countries are expected to join a Korean war, & why. Turkey, for example, has close links with South Korea. It buys S. Korean weapons. The Turkish contingent in the Korean war fought heroically, & their contribution is regularly commemorated in high-profile joint ceremonies. But suddenly, they're supposed to switch sides, despite a complete lack of motive for doing so.
And Israel? It's never joined in any war not on its own borders before. Why start now? What stake does it have in Korea?
Cuba - what is the Cuban motive for committing suicide?
Etc., etc.
Any Korean war would be confined to Korea. The only state with any interest in expanding a war would be North Korea, & it lacks the means. It can strike its immediate neighbours with missiles, but their responses would be confined to direct reactions against North Korea. Everybody outside North Korea - and that includes China, most definitely - would try to limit the war.
My apologies for writing England. I know some Scots find this offensive. I wasn't picking names out of a hat, as this is how the alignment is currently. What is the motivation for countries to join a Korean war? The First Korean War involved China and the Soviets. It will now involve China and Iran. If Iran protects North Korea, do you think nuclear amibitions of the regime in Iran could help be fulfilled by the North Koreans as well as strenghtening North Korean-Iranian Relations.
I definetly didn't appreciate the sarcasm, and Peoples' China is what Communist China has been referred to by many Heads of State. If Iran were to join a Korean War, the United States would ask Israel to strike Iran.
Swerve, I apologize for not explaining myself. My theory is that it would start as Korean War, and countries would begin align in a broader conflict BECAUSE OF INTERESTS on both sides. I agree, Cuba shouldn't have been included. I let my imagination get the best of me
Also, even if a Korean War started(North Korean strike on South Korea) The United States would by default join the war with the NATO. My theory of a "broader war" would be that North Korean allies would wish to join such a war to protect NUCLEAR INTEREST(MYANMAR, IRAN)
How does Iran come into it? They have absolutely no power projection capabilities that would let them support North Korea and they would be shooting themselves in the foot. They could be flattened by Saudi Arabia and Turkey within days, and thats without Pakistan joining the "party".
Israel would not be involved because I don't see Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Jordan giving them permission to overfly their airspace. Check a map, Israel is a couple of countries away from Iran.
Turkey is part of NATO, if the Turkish government tried to go all religious the Turkish Military would pull them back into line, as they have done in the past.
Russia will not be involved.
China will not be involved, North Korea is an embarressment to them, I wouldn't be surprised if they just closed off their borders and shot anyone trying to cross them, whether refugee or soldier.
No one wants a war in Korea, especially not China and South Korea, as the resulting influx of Refugee's into both countries from North Korea that would result would completely crush the South Korean economy and also negatively affect the Chinese economy. If you don't believe me, look up the Economy cost of East/West German integration (unless kato or one of our other German friends wants to chip in).
Swerve, I apologize for not explaining myself. My theory is that it would start as Korean War, and countries would begin align in a broader conflict BECAUSE OF INTERESTS on both sides. I agree, Cuba shouldn't have been included. I let my imagination get the best of me
Also, even if a Korean War started(North Korean strike on South Korea) The United States would by default join the war with the NATO. My theory of a "broader war" would be that North Korean allies would wish to join such a war to protect NUCLEAR INTEREST(MYANMAR, IRAN)
I think you are making a mistake about the nature of the interests of the states you mention. Iran could not protect its nuclear interests by joining in a Korean war. On the contrary, joining such a war would give its enemies a reason, & legal justification, to destroy its nuclear facilities. It cannot directly aid North Korea, & starting a local war, e.g. against oil traffic, or against US bases in the region, would be contrary to Irans interests.
Myanmar is feeble & poor. It has no ability to assist North Korea. It could achieve nothing by trying, except perhaps the fall of its government. Again, joining such a war would be contrary to its interests.
Korea has no relevance to NATO. It is outside the NATO area, which is defined by treaty.
Israel would not be involved because I don't see Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Jordan giving them permission to overfly their airspace. Check a map, Israel is a couple of countries away from Iran.
Saudi Arabia recently gave Israel permission to overfly a small part of their northern airspace, and have also recently conducted drills so that their air defense network isn't scrambled in the event of an Israeli air strike on Iran.
I don't think its a case of them siding with Israel, its just the they feel equally as threatened by a nuclear Iran as everyone else does.
Last edited by OPSSG; July 4th, 2010 at 11:33 PM.
Reason: Fixed quote format
Saudi Arabia recently gave Israel permission to overfly a small part of their northern airspace, and have also recently conducted drills so that their air defense network isn't scrambled in the event of an Israeli air strike on Iran.
I don't think its a case of them siding with Israel, its just the they feel equally as threatened by a nuclear Iran as everyone else does.
Saudi Arabia doesn't need Israel's help to take out Iran.
I agree with Stevo and Swerve's comments, no one else would have anything to gain by joining North Korea in any potential war and most don't have the capability anyway. Even if UN sanctions are put into place I doulbt they would do anything, North Korea know that initially they could to some damage but a war with ROK would end Kim's reign and decimate the country, he is just beating his chest for his own internal political gain. As has been stated before, I doubt very much that China would even get involved, however thier biggest concern would be that America may end up on thier doorstep and the inevitable influx of refugee's. Although they may support them in a minor way, China's interest would be more to put itself on the international political stage by trying to be the peacemaker as an emerging superpower, but it would be intersting to see the tosstle between the US and China, as neither would back down trying to flex thier muscle. Could be a very tense time ?
A North Korean "Foreign Ministry" Spokesperson warned they would attack South Korea if sanctions were passed. Sanctions will be passed. If North Korea does attack South Korea I expect it to start a short worldwide conflict INCLUDING IRAN, the U.S., ISRAEL, CUBA, RUSSIA, CHINA, JAPAN, PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AL-QAEDA.
If In stead of a Korean War, WWIII began, how do you expect it to pan out and who do you expect the Axis and Allies to pan out.
I see
Israel
U.S.
Canada
Russia
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
vs.
People's China
Iran
North Korea
You have listed some very strange Allied bed-fellows - Israel? Taiwan?
South Korea / US vs NK. Why would China risk all to support a basket case, all they care about is ensuring they have a buffer zone?
Saudi Arabia doesn't need Israel's help to take out Iran.
I don't think they do either, but they don't have the political will to strike against another Muslim country. They wouldn't be aggressive themselves, but they're OK with turning a blind eye if it means removing a large nuclear threat in there region.
The article I read, pretty much said that they only thing having stopped Israel so far is that the Obama administration hasn't yet given their blessing for a strike yet. Possibly only a matter of time, but this is really a conversation for a different thread, I agree with the others that it is largely irrelevant to the Korea's.
I very much doubt, and I hope I'm not proven wrong here, that there will be a 2nd war soon.
A new war on the Korean peninsular, apart from the cost in human lives, could have disastrous effects on the global economy. China which has the most influence with the North Koreans is probably doing all it can behind the scenes to prevent a war. Despite all the rhetoric and beating of war drums, the main aim of North Korea is regime survival as aussienscale pointed out. Another point to consider is at the moment the South Koreans are not very willing too see a unified Korea anytime soon as they saw how many billion marks the Bonn government had to spend on integrating East Germany.
Quote:
Originally Posted by StevoJH
How does Iran come into it? They have absolutely no power projection capabilities that would let them support North Korea and they would be shooting themselves in the foot. They could be flattened by Saudi Arabia and Turkey within days, and thats without Pakistan joining the "party".
Can Saudi Arabia, despite the billions of dollars spent on defence, be able to deal with Iran on it's own? Granted I could be mistaken here and maybe the Saudi Arabian military has come a long way in improving its ability to conduct operations. For an interesting perspective on the Saudi and other Arab militaries up to the 1st Gulf War, Ken Pollack's 'Arabs At War' is a good read.
Quote:
Originally Posted by StevoJH
Saudi Arabia doesn't need Israel's help to take out Iran.
No, but it does need the help of the Americans and the hundreds of foreign contractors to support its military. Having a large fleet of F-15s and Tornados certainly gives the Saudi's a very impressive capability on paper to inflict damage on the Iranians but does the RSAF have the capability to conduct a sustained air campaign?
Last edited by STURM; June 18th, 2010 at 06:02 AM.
Saudi Arabia recently gave Israel permission to overfly a small part of their northern airspace, and have also recently conducted drills so that their air defense network isn't scrambled in the event of an Israeli air strike on Iran.
No. There is an unconfirmed report that it is rumoured by anonymous US sources that Saudi Arabia has hinted to the Israelis that the Israeli air force might be allowed to fly across Saudi air space without being intercepted, & it's rumoured that drills the Saudis have conducted are for the purpose you refer to.
There are various interpretations of such rumours. They could be true. They could be false, & intended to make it politically difficult for the Saudis to act as described. There are other possible motives for spreading the stories.
Last edited by swerve; June 18th, 2010 at 06:24 AM.
No. There is an unconfirmed report that it is rumoured by anonymous US sources that Saudi Arabia has hinted to the Israelis that the Israeli air force might be allowed to fly across Saudi air space without being intercepted, & it's rumoured that drills the Saudis have conducted are for the purpose you refer to.
There are various interpretations of such rumours. They could be true. They could be false, & intended to make it politically difficult for the Saudis to act as described. There are other possible motives for spreading the stories.
Your probably correct, I had only seen a short article on the matter. Even if that was the motivation, I don't think any government, and especially not the US, would be too critical of a preemptive strike to prevent nuclear war with Iran.
The problem, in my opinion anyway, would be that even if Iran didn't have nuclear capability, the Saudi's allowing Israeli's to use their airspace would open retaliation on them from Iran's conventional force's, which will outdated, they still have reasonably large naval and air forces.
The other reason it's a possibility is that Iran publicly said they were happy to provide military escort for humanitarian ships in the Mediterranean headed for Gaza. Would make it so easy for a conflict to be sparked for little reason. Israel would defiantly try and stop the ships, the whole reason for the blockade is to stop Iranian arms from being smuggled in.
Take what I say with a grain of salt though, I am by no means very knowledgeable on Middle Eastern politics.
