Iraqi Army: Now and in the future

Almaleki

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The Iraqi Army, Joint Commands and Total Force Mobilization remain to be addressed. This article is about the Iraqi Army now and how it is developing in the future.



As with all such articles, the future projections are heavy on speculation, estimation, and extrapolations. If sixty percent proves accurate, the estimate will be considered good. Many of the decisions by the Iraqi Government and Ministries that affect what is being projected here have not been made yet.



The following basic factors and assumptions should be kept in mind while reading these articles:

* The principal role of the Iraqi Army (IA) is external security. Internal security is a secondary role for IA. As such, the majority of the total force’s armor will be in the Iraqi Army
* The primary and secondary countries posing an external threat are Iran and Syria.
* The Iraqi Ground Forces Command (IGFC) sectors are not the basis for the Iraqi Army Corps. There are to be four active corps. Those Corps are to be headquartered in Mosul, Balad, Al Asad, and Basrah.
* Iraqi Special Operations Force (ISOF) is considered to be growing to a five-brigade airmobile force. ISOF will be used as Iraqi Army Corps reserve brigades in wartime. While ISOF is currently part of the IA, it is going to split off to the Counter Terrorism Bureau.
* The Iraqi Army is still projected to grow to 20 divisions (including ISOF as a division equivalent). This has not changed from previous predictions. The details have just been refined.
* The mechanization of the heavy components of the Iraqi Army and the formation of the artillery will take more than five years. The armor will probably be 10-15 years building. The 15 year estimate is based on current purchase rates of armor. Approximately a division-minus will be upgraded each year if the budget supports it.
* Iraqi Army reserve will be based on existing Ministry of Interior paramilitary formations.
* The principal forces for internal security belong to the Ministry of Interior (MoI). However, those forces have a secondary role providing infantry, Special Operations, and light mechanized forces to the total force in a wartime mobilization.
* The Kurdish Regional Guards (KRG; aka Peshmerga) is being re-designated as Iraqi Army, Federal Police, and Iraqi Police. The KRG elements will probably be a de facto Joint Corps in a wartime mobilization.
* The Operational Commands are not the peacetime basis of the four active corps but, will be used as three Army and four corps headquarters for wartime mobilization. In peacetime they will command the internal security forces. Likewise, the peacetime IA Corps will not be how they are configured in a full mobilization.



Iraqi Ground Forces Command: The principal role of the IGFC is external security and the components for that role are to be added starting 2009. The IGFC is currently announced at 20 division-equivalents operational, forming, or planned:

* Four planned corps,
* 14 active IA divisions (1st thru 12th, 14th, and 17th),
* A division (minus) of ISOF,
* A forming Presidential Division,
* Two Kurdish divisions mustered but not yet commissioned (15th and 16th), and
* Two more divisions are planned (18th in Maysan and 19th in Wassit).



While the IGFC is the only peacetime army-level headquarters, three of the seven operational centers have been identified as probable army headquarters in a wartime mobilization. They are the Samarra Operational Command for the northern corps, the Baghdad Operational Command for the central corps, and the Karbala Operational Command for the southern corps.



IA Corps:
These four corps are not yet formed. Each corps is likely to consist of a headquarters regiment, support regiment, four or five divisions, one mechanized or armored brigade, one or more artillery regiment, one ISOF airmobile brigade (attached when needed), a composite aviation wing (brigade), and a field engineering regiment. Additional elements may be assigned to the active peacetime corps for use in the mobilization corps based on the operational commands. Their probable locations are Mosul, Al Asad, Balad, and Basrah.



Four of the seven operational commands are also probable corps headquarters in a wartime mobilization. They are the Ninawa Operational Command, Diyala Operational Command, Anbar Operational Command, and the Basrah Operational Command.



Additionally, the Kurdish Region may get its own corps headquarters, at least in wartime. If this happens, the headquarters would be located in Irbil.



IA Divisions:
Each division is standardized with four line brigades, a field artillery regiment, a field engineer regiment, a transport and provisioning regiment, an intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance (ISR) battalion, and a headquarters battalion. [Expanded detail provided in Appendix B.] Unlike the other divisions, the 9th Armored Division and ISOF also have modular configured brigades with brigade support battalions. These divisions are not completely built:

* None of the 14 existing Iraqi Army divisions have their field artillery regiments (fires brigades). These will start forming after the brigades get their fire support battalions. That will probably be in 2011 or 2012.
* Six of the 14 IA divisions are still building up their transport and provisioning regiments (sustainment brigades). These are planned to be complete by the end of 2009.
* Three of the 14 IA divisions are still building up their field engineering regiments (engineer brigades). These are planned to be complete by the end of 2009.
* Three of the 14 IA divisions are missing their fourth maneuver (line) brigades. Those are 6th, 12th, and 17th Divisions. This is due to the 2008 formation of the 12th and 17th Divisions combined with the hiring freeze in the fall of 2008. With the current emphasis on completing the existing divisions support elements, these might not form until 2010. However, the recent agreement to transfer the 100,000 KRG troops to the Iraqi Security Forces could facilitate filling these divisions out.
* Three of the 14 IA divisions are missing their ISR battalion. Also, the IGFC is considering disbanding these battalions and the excess battalions in the over-strength brigades to form support battalions. Given the current fielding of 120mm mortars for the brigades, this probably means a combination of brigade support battalions and brigade fire support battalions are to be formed from these disbanded personnel. This might change with the influx of personnel from the KRG.
* The 9th Division is still awaiting two battalions worth of NATO donated T-72s from Slovakia so as to finish converting from a mechanized to an armored division. However, they may be replacing the Russian origin tanks in 9th Division with M1A1s while using the older T-55s and T-72s to upgrade units elsewhere in Iraq. Which could mean the cancellation of the T-72s.



IA Line Brigades: The IA line brigades will consist of a Brigade Special Troops Battalion, an attached artillery battalion, and three (four or five for independent brigades) line battalions. Armor brigades have two armor battalions and a mechanized battalion. Mechanized brigades have an armor battalion and two mechanized battalions. Motorized, infantry, and mountain brigades have three type battalions.



Iraqi Peacetime Army Distribution



Independent Iraqi Army Forces under National Operational Command or IGFC:


* Iraqi Special Operations Force.
1st ISOF Brigade in Baghdad. Four Regional Commando Battalions based at Mosul, Al Asad, Diyala, and Basrah. The four RCBs are brigade cadre.
* 1st Presidential Brigade, 2nd Presidential Brigade, Baghdad Brigade, and IGFC Field Engineer Regiment. The three brigades are under strength and still building. The status of the IGFC FER is unknown. With the exception of the 1st Presidential Brigade, all four of these formations were commissioned in 2009. The 1st Presidential Brigade commissioned in January 2008. Filled out, with the addition of support regiment, field artillery regiment, a headquarters, and a fourth brigade (possibly 1st ISOF Brigade), this Presidential Mechanized Division could be officially commissioned this year.

Quick Intervention Corps (forming):


* 1st Motorized Division based in eastern Anbar. Probably planned to become a mechanized division.
* 4th Motorized Division based in Salahadin. Planned to be an airmobile division.
* 7th Infantry Division based in western Anbar. Planned to be an armored division.
* 9th Mechanized Division based at Taji. Converting to an armored division with receipt of 70 more NATO donated T72 tanks.( Note : there will be change the Iraqi T-72 will go to provinces Divisions ,, and the 9th will be over strength Armored Division/ Training on the M1A1s )

Northern Corps (planned):

* 2nd Motorized Division based in Mosul. Probably planned to be an airmobile division.
* 3rd Motorized Division based in western Ninawa. Planned to be an armored division.
* 12th Infantry Division based in Kirkuk. Currently an infrastructure security division. No indications of future configuration.
* 15th Mountain Division based in Sulaymaniyah. Mustered, awaiting training, equipping, and commissioning.
* 16th Mountain Division based in Irbil. Mustered, awaiting training, equipping, and commissioning.

Central Corps (planned):

* 5th Motorized Division based in Diyala. Planned to be a mechanized division.
* 6th Motorized Division based in western Baghdad. Probably planned to be an airborne division.
* 11th Infantry Division based in eastern Baghdad. Planned to be a (possible) mechanized or (probable) armored division.
* 17th Commando Division based in southern Baghdad. Still missing a brigade.
* 19th Division to be based in Wassit. Not formed. Probably planned to be a mechanized division.

Southern Corps (planned):

* 8th Commando Division based in Qadisayah/Babil/Karbala/Najaf/Wassit. Plans to split off area for 19th Division in the future.
* 10th Motorized Division based in DhiQar/Maysan/Muthanna. Probably planned to be an armored division. 18th Division in Maysan to be split off first.
* 14th Motorized Division based in Basrah. Probably planned to be a mechanized division.
* 18th Division to be based in Maysan. Not formed. Probably planned to be a mechanized division. Divisional support base to be complete in September 2009.
* Naval Division. Technically not part of the Iraqi Army but, the Navy and Marines will probably be subordinate to this corps.



What follows is a working checklist and notes of current missing or deficient items in the IA TO/E:



Battalion:
__/__Senior NCO Shortage. Only time and experience can correct this. The slow down in unit formations and the follow on training that has been available has improved this situation.

__/__Mortar Batteries. Battalions are in the process of receiving their mortar batteries.

__/__Motorization. The existing Iraqi Army will be effectively motorized by the end of 2009.



Brigade:
__/__Senior NCO Shortage. Only time and experience can correct this.

__/__Brigade Combat Engineer/EOD elements. Well along. Probably done by end of 2010.

__/__Field Artillery Battalions. The current plan is to form half-battalions of nine 120mm mortars each and then build on those cadres. Only 10 of these are planned in 2009. There are 56 current IA Brigades.

__/__Medical. Medical personnel are still in training.

__/__Communications. Training is ongoing.

_____Brigade Support Battalions (BSB). As the brigades become fully motorized and gain their artillery battalions, they will need to add BSBs. Only the brigades of the 9th Division and ISOF have BSBs so far. Additional divisions may start forming BSBs in 2010.



Division:

__?__Intelligence and reconnaissance. An intelligence and reconnaissance company (Scout Company) is insufficient at division level. A dedicated military intelligence company is needed. The formation of 11 Divisional ISR Battalions had been addressing this problem but, the possible disbanding of them in order to fill out other support will leave this element weak.

__/__Medical. Medical shortages in equipment, facilities and personnel. In progress.

__/__Communications. Training and equipping progressing.

__/__Engineer Battalions. The division engineering regiments' components are mostly formed. The training of engineers/EOD has been accelerated.

_____FA Regiments. The formation of the divisions' fires brigades (FA) has not started. These regiments are scheduled for after 2010.

_____Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battalions. No ADA battalions have been announced as planned. Standard US Army TO/E provides for one ADA battalion per division, while other countries have ADA brigade or regiment per division.

__/__Transport and Sustainment Regiments (Sustainment Brigade). These are expected to be complete for the existing divisions by the end of 2009.



Corps:

_____Leadership.

_____Intelligence. Nonexistent.

_____Medical. Nonexistent.

_____Communications. Nonexistent.

_____Corps Support Brigades. Nonexistent.

_____Corps Independent Brigades. Normally, corps have additional field artillery, ADA, engineer, aviation, and other brigades. Nothing formed as yet. The only independent brigades so far are not corps assets.



Army:


__/__Intelligence. Intelligence at Army/Ministry level has improved.

__/__Medical. Work in progress. General shortage of medical personnel in Iraq.

__/__Communications. Work in progress.

__/__Logistics. The Taji National Depots are expanding and expected to be complete in 2009. The Bayji and Najaf Depots are still in work.

_____Artillery. Nonexistent.

_____Air Defense. Nonexistent.

_____Aviation. Iraqi Air Force is an under-strength transport and reconnaissance group. The Iraqi Air Force is grossly insufficient in size and capabilities to support the Iraqi Army.

__/__Engineers/EOD. At all levels the engineers/EOD elements are short on trained personnel and equipment. However this is improving. The IGFC recently gained its own Field Engineering Regiment.

__/__APCs/MRAPs/HMMWVs. The additional purchases of trucks and HMMWVs means the current IA will be fully motorized by the end of 2009.

_____Armor. There are not enough tanks to fill the 9th division. That is being filled out later in 2009. The IA requires a minimum of six mechanized/armored divisions to counter the probable threat (Iran and its ally Syria).

__/__Size. The Iraqi Army remains deficient in leadership, logistics, artillery, mortars, APCs, armor, and most of all size. Current announced force structure would require approximately 120,000 more personnel to fill out the IA TO/E. The freeze in new recruits has forced the consideration of cannibalizing line battalions to form support battalions. The addition of at least 30,000 Peshmerga to the Iraqi Army may help correct this problem.
 
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