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GG20DELTA January 18th, 2012 10:30 PM

Iran Invasion soon ?
 
Okay gents can someone tell me if this true, are aircraft carrier strike group standing ready for the order, is the new giant base built in Shindand, Afghanistan for immediate transport... Forces are ready, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, hope I dont know to much ! hope this don't violate OPSEC but what will happen and will it happen anytime soon anyone know anything different ?

Eeshaan January 18th, 2012 11:00 PM

Um no, not really, mate.

Iranian invasion is far off if at all possible, which I don't think it is. If things turn sour, then you can expect to see action in the Strait of Hormuz, nothing beyond that as of now. No one, not the Americans, nor the Iranians or Israelis are stupid enough to plunge the entire region into full-blown war. At least not in the immediate future ( next couple of months ).

I'd take a deep breath & relax if I were you. Also, please refrain from posting topics that seem like flame bait, as I have learn the hard way in the past few months lol.

Karchev23 January 19th, 2012 03:08 AM

Iranian Invasion
 
I must agree with the other man, an Invasion of Iran is awhile off, if it was to happen itd be about a year or two away. Another problem is that China and Russia are clearly backing Iran ( Because of Oil im guessing and just general "WE HATE AMERICA HURR" ). The west knows this and we don't exactly want to plunge the World into a 3rd World conflict at this current moment in time.

Kirkzzy January 19th, 2012 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eeshaan (Post 237035)
No one, not the Americans, nor the Iranians or Israelis are stupid enough to plunge the entire region into full-blown war. At least not in the immediate future ( next couple of months ).

If you have been following the Republican Presidential Primaries you would be scared sh*tless. These guys are really serious with their intent to "stop" Iran. I remember Santorum saying the strait would be closed by now if not for the 5th fleet. Recently in a South Carolina debate Gingrich went out and said "You know what we do with our enemies? We kill them!" to a cheering crowd. Scary stuff.. There is only one person in the primaries that actually know they're talking about when it comes to Iran...

lucinator January 19th, 2012 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG20DELTA (Post 237034)
Okay gents can someone tell me if this true, are aircraft carrier strike group standing ready for the order, is the new giant base built in Shindand, Afghanistan for immediate transport... Forces are ready, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, hope I dont know to much ! hope this don't violate OPSEC but what will happen and will it happen anytime soon anyone know anything different ?

on your first point yes there are carrier groups on standby though they always are when their posted in the gulf as for the rest, nope, nope and more nope. At most you will see airstrikes/ spec-ops and that's about it (note worst case scenario) My suggestion stop reading into whats posted on the internet it's mostly junk (this site excluded as we have very stringent moderators)

winnyfield January 19th, 2012 09:33 PM

Air and navy shooting war, maybe. Invasion, no.

There's a crisis with Iran every 6 weeks.

winnyfield January 19th, 2012 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karchev23 (Post 237047)
I must agree with the other man, an Invasion of Iran is awhile off, if it was to happen itd be about a year or two away. Another problem is that China and Russia are clearly backing Iran ( Because of Oil im guessing and just general "WE HATE AMERICA HURR" ). The west knows this and we don't exactly want to plunge the World into a 3rd World conflict at this current moment in time.

The US Navy is protecting Chinas oil. The Chinese wont be happy with Iranian attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. .

JGA January 19th, 2012 11:22 PM

Why would it be far away, you have a possible 2nd round of the GFC lingering as it has merely been postponed rather than overcome, you have a with drawl of American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you think the American polly's in power would not go to war again? War equals money especially for them. The American army (although extremely important) is bigger than it should be for the population of an America not in a real war time (And yes I know they are technically at War but its a war on hearts and minds not against a real army, I mean no disrespect to the brave men and women out there serving but if America had no conscious it could have wiped the country off the face of the earth in a week without nukes "real war") You must keep the army alive and have a reason to have it that big, so tax payers wont cry foul about the absurd amounts of money spent on defense. Iran is not even a fart in the wind next to America, how--ever you cold convince the public that you needed to mobilise a quarter of a million troops there for security. Iran may be legite just wanting nuke power for its people or it may have an different agenda, it is America's decision to allow them. If they are wrong they will be scrutinised if they are right there is no way of knowing unless they leave it to late. "heavy weighs the crown"

phreeky January 20th, 2012 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JGA (Post 237103)
Why would it be far away, you have a possible 2nd round of the GFC lingering as it has merely been postponed rather than overcome, you have a with drawl of American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you think the American polly's in power would not go to war again? War equals money especially for them.

Unless I'm mistaken war = government money->public money. The US government doesn't have the luxury of surplus cash to boost the economy, so from a financial PoV I cannot see the point in that.

I think a significant amount of US action, whatever it ends up being even if just very tough sanctions, would be as a result of pressure from Israel. The US no doubt want the region stable, and preventing action from Israel must surely be an important part of that.

lopez January 20th, 2012 01:56 AM

Where did the war is profitable myth come from? Peace and stability is profitable if war = peace it becomes profitable in the long run... But its not like invading Iran is going to magically fix the US economy.

RobWilliams January 20th, 2012 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kirkzzy (Post 237062)
If you have been following the Republican Presidential Primaries you would be scared sh*tless. These guys are really serious with their intent to "stop" Iran. I remember Santorum saying the strait would be closed by now if not for the 5th fleet. Recently in a South Carolina debate Gingrich went out and said "You know what we do with our enemies? We kill them!" to a cheering crowd. Scary stuff.. There is only one person in the primaries that actually know they're talking about when it comes to Iran...

Its not just Santorum or Gingrich.

Obama challenger Romney says ‘prepare for war’ against Iran | Nuclear Weapons News at DefenceTalk

Quote:

Accusing President Barack Obama of naivete on Iran, Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney promised Thursday that if elected president he would "prepare for war" with the Islamic republic.
Promise being the extremely unnerving word.

+ then there was Herman Cain saying that if Israel had a strong credible plan with a clearly definited 'victory' objective, he would support Israel and if the plan was strong enough he would deploy the military.

IIRC Cain pulled out of the race but it's still extremely unnerving that people going to office and publicly advocating war with Iran have any support at all. This could all go extremely wrong extremely quickly depending who takes over from Obama if he doesn't get re-elected.

WebMaster January 20th, 2012 04:06 PM

I don't think we will attack Iran and certainly not if they test a nuke, like Israel has been saying, "Iran will have a nuke within a year" for past 7+ years.

Its amazing how some of these potential presidential candidates can fear monger and talk about war when our economy is in the toilet.

I guess you can't be conservative or evangelical if you don't talk about war or start one when you are a president. Obama can get reelected, only thing he needs to do is start a war, with Iran or with another country, syria perhaps?

Feanor January 20th, 2012 05:01 PM

Syria would be bad timing. Violence there is winding down, and it's a fairly close Russian client state. Not only would Russia make a stink about it internationally, the justification for it is increasingly flimsy.

phreeky January 20th, 2012 06:31 PM

Are the American people really that pro-war though? Surely not? I would have thought that they'd be tired of war and are more focused on their financial and domestic issues.

My2Cents January 20th, 2012 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG20DELTA (Post 237034)
Okay gents can someone tell me if this true, are aircraft carrier strike group standing ready for the order, is the new giant base built in Shindand, Afghanistan for immediate transport... Forces are ready, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, hope I dont know to much ! hope this don't violate OPSEC but what will happen and will it happen anytime soon anyone know anything different ?

Short answer -- No.

Long answer – Invading Iran will be a simultaneous invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, the forces and logistical requirements are HUGE. There is nowhere near the amount required in place.

The most you can expect from the Coalition side is some skirmishes at sea and some airstrikes, possibly including B-2 strikes with MOP. From the Iranian side there will be declarations of Coalition mass casualties and missile strikes aimed at ships in the Gulf and targets in Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. I think that Iraq will try to stay neutral unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and if so the Iranians will let them.

In the end nothing will really be changed.


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