| Gaza rockets: effectiveness, lethality, and future concerns
<http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/03/2010318101628795550.html>
A rocket from Gaza has claimed the first life since the cessation of conventional hostilities in Jan. 2009. The attack was claimed by Ansar al-Sunna, a group not previously known to be active in launching rockets.
How do you view the domestic weapon production in Gaza? Since 2001, over 4,000 rockets have been launched from the Strip, killing 12 and wounding around 440. The rocket capability of groups in Gaza, specifically the military wing of Hamas, the 'Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is nowhere near the capability of Hizbullah in Lebanon, which killed four times as many Israelis in the short 2006 War than Hamas and its contemporaries have since 2001.
Hizbullah's Iranian and Syrian Grad and Fajr rockets have the range, accuracy and payload to come close to a sort of deterrent effect. We all recall the 2006 Lebanon War. I think that Hizbullah has reached a pinnacle of non-state actor tactical defense. The ability to standoff with a rocket attack while putting up a stubborn tactical defense with anti-tank rockets and ATGMs was about as successful as any non-state actor could hope for.
However, Gaza's homemade "Qassam" rockets are nothing compared to rockets produced by a legitimate arms industry. The al-Qassam Brigades have begun imported Grad rockets from Egypt via th Sinai tunnels, but the 2009 Gaza War was a flop for Hamas, which folded under a (much wiser?) attack by the IDF.
The rocket attacks from Gaza have had periods of calm and periods of fury. Could the introduction of challengers to Hamas, like these Ansar al-Sunna fellows and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, bring the situation to another peak, with 40 or 50 rockets being fired a month? Or, as the IDF claim, is rocket production and the fighting spirit of groups in Gaza in an all-time low point?
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