New RAND study on hypothetical attack/invasion of Taiwan

[Vivendi]

Hi,

This just came out:

RAND | Monographs | A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG888/index.html)

A lot of interesting claims in there, I would be interested in hearing people's opinion.

I was surprised that this analysis seems to suggest that China can relatively easy get air superiority. I would have thought that the higher quality and sophistication of the Western military equipment would make more of a difference.


So what do people think?

Edit: While waiting for the PDF to download you can also look at Trimble's comments on his blog:

RAND study: Now China wins Taiwan Straits air war - The DEW Line (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2009/08/rand-study-now-china-wins-taiw.html)


Vivendi

[delahoya]

Hi,

This just came out:

RAND | Monographs | A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG888/index.html)

A lot of interesting claims in there, I would be interested in hearing people's opinion.

I was surprised that this analysis seems to suggest that China can relatively easy get air superiority. I would have thought that the higher quality and sophistication of the Western military equipment would make more of a difference.


So what do people think?

Edit: While waiting for the PDF to download you can also look at Trimble's comments on his blog:

RAND study: Now China wins Taiwan Straits air war - The DEW Line (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2009/08/rand-study-now-china-wins-taiw.html)


Vivendi

I think that the higher quality and sophistication doesn't help at all if the air force can't generate enough sorties to defend the airspace due to destroyed runways, it may even play against if the fighters need dust free runways and more then average maintenance to keep them operative.

[A.Mookerjee]

The Americans have a slight impediment, because of the proximity of Taiwan to the Chinese mainland. Perhaps, in the future, the prosperity of China will make Taiwan bond naturally with China.