Taiwan to build 3rd-generation warplane with Russia's help

[Viktor]

Now this is a interesting information ... it may be true, it may not but we will never know as both sides will deny it for sure with only China times saying its true and other newspapers who copy-paste the story ....

Now if this proves to be true (some time in the future) it would make a funny way of revenging the copy-pasted Su-27/S-300/and wast amount of other ground/air/naval military equipment.

Btw ... now as some light has being trown at Russia Taiwan relation ... where did Taiwan menaged to made aerodynamic and ram-jet engine for its Hsiund Feng 3 missile ?


Taiwan to build 3rd-generation warplane with Russia's help
Europe News

Jun 19, 2009, 1:44 GMT

Taipei - Taiwan plans to build its third-generation warplane with Russian technology as the United States has refused to sell Taiwan F-16C/Ds, a newspaper reported Friday.

The Aerospace Industrial Development Corp (AIDC), which sent personnel to Russia for instruction from Russian experts, has finished designing the third-generation warplane, the China Times quoted an unnamed military official as saying.

The as-yet-unnamed third-generation warplane will have twin engines and be able to take off and land with a short airstrip, the official said.

During the design process, Taiwan and Russian experts studied the design of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), the United States' most advanced fighter jet, but Taiwan's aircraft is shorter than the JSF, the military official said.

The paper said that Taiwan ordered 150 F-16A/Bs in 1992 to form its second-generation fleet, which also included 60 French Mirage 2000-5s and 130 self-made Indigenous Defence Fighters (IDF).

To deter any possible attack from China, Taiwan has been seeking to buy the more advanced F-16C/Ds, or JSF, but Washington has turned down the request, agreeing only to upgrade Taiwan's F-16A/Bs. This prompted Taiwan to decide to build its own third-generation warplanes for self-defence, despite improved Taipei-Beijing ties.

Taiwan and China have been split since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

China sees Taiwan as its breakaway province and has vowed to recover Taiwan by force if Taipei declares independence or indefinitely delays holding unification talks with Beijing.

LINK (http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1484528.php/Taiwan_to_build_3rd-generation_warplane_with_Russias_help_#ixzz0IyMFR7 TO&C)

[F35Owns]

Now this is a interesting information ... it may be true, it may not but we will never know as both sides will deny it for sure with only China times saying its true and other newspapers who copy-paste the story ....

Now if this proves to be true (some time in the future) it would make a funny way of revenging the copy-pasted Su-27/S-300/and wast amount of other ground/air/naval military equipment.

Btw ... now as some light has being trown at Russia Taiwan relation ... where did Taiwan menaged to made aerodynamic and ram-jet engine for its Hsiund Feng 3 missile ?

Thanks for that article. I wonder how China feels about that!? Good for Russia and Taiwan, Russian's make great fighter planes. Yeah, let the Russian's show the Chinese how to make a plane. Does anybody else see some turmoil in this deal, Reguarding Russia and Chinese relations? I realize Russia is doing this for capital reasons, but China will surely be paranoid over this move.

EDIT: Now that I think of it....Russia made China sign an agreement over China using Russian designs....Now, they allow China's enemy (Taiwan) use it? That's an 180 degree on their policy toward foreign competitors .....

[Schumacher]

I doubt it's true but if it's true Taiwan is going Russian, I'd imagine China will be relieved since it means Taiwan air force will most likely be bogged down with delays, cost overruns and quality issues for many years to come. LOL

[Jezza]

surplus tranche 1 typhoons would be better.

[tphuang]

it's complete false. AIDC has already come out to deny this. case closed.

[Viktor]

That does not nessesseraly mean anything ... like they would acknowledge even if they did??

[Musashi_kenshin]

it's complete false. AIDC has already come out to deny this. case closed.

It might be completely false, but of course AIDC is going to deny it either way. If they really were working with the Russians they'd keep everything quiet until they'd got government approval and the money was flowing. Even then they might keep their mouths shut rather than have the Russians spooked by too much media coverage. Soon enough everyone will have "forgotten" about this.

[tphuang]

It might be completely false, but of course AIDC is going to deny it either way. If they really were working with the Russians they'd keep everything quiet until they'd got government approval and the money was flowing. Even then they might keep their mouths shut rather than have the Russians spooked by too much media coverage. Soon enough everyone will have "forgotten" about this.

considering the number of spies that China has in both Taiwan and Russia, China will find out if they are getting help from the Russians or not. You only need to look at the big deal that China made out of the recent US weapon sales to Taiwan (which didn't even include F-16s) to see what China's reaction would be to Russia assisting Taiwan on a 5th gen projects. It's the political fallout that Russia needs to worry about. Think SCO, think BRIC, think the recent currency swaps and such.


That does not nessesseraly mean anything ... like they would acknowledge even if they did??

how would they ever be able to hide it in the long run? I feel like my intelligence has been insulted by posts like this.

[Musashi_kenshin]

considering the number of spies that China has in both Taiwan and Russia, China will find out if they are getting help from the Russians or not. You only need to look at the big deal that China made out of the recent US weapon sales to Taiwan (which didn't even include F-16s) to see what China's reaction would be to Russia assisting Taiwan on a 5th gen projects.

I didn't state that Russia would do any of that. I said that AIDC would deny it if it were really happening. And despite your view that China would know anyway, knowing or suspecting isn't the same as having incontroversial proof and/or official acknowledgment something is the case.

[Viktor]

considering the number of spies that China has in both Taiwan and Russia, China will find out if they are getting help from the Russians or not. You only need to look at the big deal that China made out of the recent US weapon sales to Taiwan (which didn't even include F-16s) to see what China's reaction would be to Russia assisting Taiwan on a 5th gen projects. It's the political fallout that Russia needs to worry about. Think SCO, think BRIC, think the recent currency swaps and such.


how would they ever be able to hide it in the long run? I feel like my intelligence has been insulted by posts like this.

In the long run nothing can remain hidden ... ofcourse but Russia can allways deny any formal involment in project and credit some breakaway scientiest responsible ....

What are you trying to say with BRIC and SCO ... China copy-paste Russia weapons and this is payback and lesson! ... if true of course ...
MIG has some fine LMFI project on going ...

[Sampanviking]

The story of this thread is so unlikely as to be actually farcical. Only last week at the SCO annual summit in Ekaterinaberg, Russia reaffirmed in the joint communique of a two nations summit, its position as recognising only one China and Taiwan is simply a province of it.

Moscow regards the Sino-Russian relationship is far to valuable to flush down the pan just for the sale of a few jets.

It Taiwan is getting Su30's then either it is a highly strategic move orchestrated through Beijing, or they are re-sales from another country that is unconcerned at facing Chinese ire over the issue, which in today's economic environment is nearly as unlikely as a direct sale form Russia.

[Viktor]

Moscow regards the Sino-Russian relationship is far to valuable to flush down the pan just for the sale of a few jets.

So what you are basicly saying is that Moscow is a bitch who has no alternatives but to bend over to China whenewer they decide to copy-paste its system ??????

If China does not respect Russia for what god forsaken reason would you expect Russia to respect China ??

What SOC and BRIC reasons are saying?? explain??
And why should Russia have any more respect to China ... because of its support in Russia Georgia war maybe ?? or its copy-paste weapons ... LOL

[Bonza]

So what you are basicly saying is that Moscow is a bitch who has no alternatives but to bend over to China whenewer they decide to copy-paste its system ??????

How on earth did you infer that? He's saying Russia has more to gain from a healthy relationship with China than it does from the development or sale of jets with Taiwan. Calm down.

[tphuang]

In the long run nothing can remain hidden ... ofcourse but Russia can allways deny any formal involment in project and credit some breakaway scientiest responsible ....

What are you trying to say with BRIC and SCO ... China copy-paste Russia weapons and this is payback and lesson! ... if true of course ...
MIG has some fine LMFI project on going ...
Let's address two things here:
1. It has everything to do with politics/economics. Countries don't sell weapons to Taiwan, because they are worried about the political and economical ramifications rather than military exports. France, Germany, UK and Israel can't export to China, but they still refuse to deal with Taiwan, why don't you think that is? Recently, US received hell from China for the military exports from end of last year and that was even though F-16 wasn't part of the package. Why do you think F-16 is off the table now? You think US wants to piss China off when it needs China to buy its treasuries? Now, Russia is looking to change the world financial system with a new world currency that is not USD. That's why it brought in the BRIC countries as a counter weight to G-8. It's actively looking for China to buy its gov't bonds. It needs Chinese financing for different energy cooperation deals. It needs China to inject money into SCO countries to keep them afloat and anti-USA. I can really go on and on with all the areas of cooperation it needs from China, most of them economical/financially related. Remember, world power shifts to where money is, especially when we are in a depression.

Think a little bit before you post.

2. As for China copying Russian weapons, yes it does happen, but it's not like the way Russia described it. For example, a project like J-11B is actually a licensed production that is done well within the original contract, but Sukhoi is pissed off that China is not buying Su-35 or the upgrade programs that it is offering. That's why it's complaining so much. There were a lot more copying going on a few years ago, but Russia didn't say a thing because China was still buying its weapons. Now, it's complaining because China is no longer buying its weapons, but if you look at the latest stuff coming out from China, there is not that much that's even based on Russian stuff. Outside of J-11B, the only thing I can think of that is even based on Russian stuff is a couple of sensors on 054A (none of which is copied contrary to what Russians may say), their copy of D-30, WS-13, missile component of HQ-9 and possibly the large transport (although we haven't seen its photos yet).

[SkolZkiy]

Tphuang you overestimate Chinese power. Russia showed in 080808 that it becomes super power once more. China depend on Russia as Russia on China - nothing more. and do not overestimate the number of Chinese spies in Russia - our guys if they want keep secrets very very well - this is known by everybody.
May be 10 years ago we needed China more then China needed Russia but now we are equal.
You want to say that SCO and BRIK are unnecessary for China?? You want to say that China didn't need to change current world financial system? If so i have a question - what the hell China is doing in those organizations if it doesn't need them??

[swerve]

... Russia showed in 080808 that it becomes super power once more. ...
Knocking over Georgia did not show that Russia is a superpower. If it is, then Tanzania showed it was a superpower when it invaded Uganda & overthrew Idi Amin, Vietnam showed it was a superpower when it overthrew the Khmer Rouge, Rwanda showed it was a superpower in Congo in 1996, & Iraq showed its superpower status in 1990, with the conquest of Kuwait (a much better-armed state than Georgia, BTW).

Think what a superpower is. It is not a country able to defeat a small, poor, weak, neighbour.

[Viktor]

Knocking over Georgia did not show that Russia is a superpower. If it is, then Tanzania showed it was a superpower when it invaded Uganda & overthrew Idi Amin, Vietnam showed it was a superpower when it overthrew the Khmer Rouge, Rwanda showed it was a superpower in Congo in 1996, & Iraq showed its superpower status in 1990, with the conquest of Kuwait (a much better-armed state than Georgia, BTW).

Think what a superpower is. It is not a country able to defeat a small, poor, weak, neighbour.

Those countries did not have USA suport and its presidents having dinner with US ones and tapping themselfs on the back ... more to it they where not applied to NATO membership etc ... and the thing US did nothing to help its ally says mutch for itself ...

[Viktor]

1. It has everything to do with politics/economics. Countries don't sell weapons to Taiwan, because they are worried about the political and economical ramifications rather than military exports. France, Germany, UK and Israel can't export to China, but they still refuse to deal with Taiwan, why don't you think that is?


Now lets see ... Im not talking here about official weapons sales to Taiwan but unofficially why is it unimaginable for you to belive there is a chance Russia is helping Taiwan build some fighter throwout some gost company in the same way China is unofficially copy-pasting Russian (and others weapons but here we are not disscussing others) but officially it is not but developing whole new concepts based on their own brains that just happen to look alike ....

I think you missed the point here ....


? Recently, US received hell from China for the military exports from end of last year and that was even though F-16 wasn't part of the package. Why do you think F-16 is off the table now? You think US wants to piss China off when it needs China to buy its treasuries?

Unlike US and EU ... Russia is self-sufficient and not depended on anyone ... it has land and energy and tehnological basis for all its citizens ...

Remember, world power shifts to where money is, especially when we are in a depression.

Totaly agree ... but ....


Now, Russia is looking to change the world financial system with a new world currency that is not USD. That's why it brought in the BRIC countries as a counter weight to G-8. It's actively looking for China to buy its gov't bonds. It needs Chinese financing for different energy cooperation deals. It needs China to inject money into SCO countries to keep them afloat and anti-USA. I can really go on and on with all the areas of cooperation it needs from China, most of them economical/financially related.

I dont agree with this completely ... cozz they are in this anti-US thing togeather and none of them stands a chance on its own .... so saying Russia needs China because otherwise it can not resist NATO etc expansion without China influence and money stands no ground ... both countries make use of BRIC and SCO for its own purpose and are growing, developing and challenging US influence but none of them is there just to suck otherones d....k ...

So saying Russia needs China money ... yes it needs everybodies money but still holds hudge reserves on its own ....

China on the other hand has trubelsome energy supply on witch it can not rely in case of war with Taiwan/US/India etc so NEEDS Russia as an alternative to its supply routes. etc etc ....




2. As for China copying Russian weapons, yes it does happen, but it's not like the way Russia described it. For example, a project like J-11B is actually a licensed production that is done well within the original contract, but Sukhoi is pissed off that China is not buying Su-35 or the upgrade programs that it is offering.

China got licence to build 200 planes for 2.5 Bin ... witch is as same as they where given for free and still now complaines and etc ....

J-11 was its licence build plane ... J-11B is not but copy-paste Russian Su-27 with China subsystems on it ...

That's why it's complaining so much. There were a lot more copying going on a few years ago, but Russia didn't say a thing because China was still buying its weapons. Now, it's complaining because China is no longer buying its weapons,

So you are admitting China copy-paste its weapons ... its good to have common ground and something to begin from ...

So you are giving me a reason for Russia acting as a jerk "as you or China see it" because they where not complaining until China decided to copy-paste its weapons and steel other ones 100% and because of it not making any money ... LOL

Do you think Russia is some kind of samaritan state so giving money and weapon for free is something natural expected from them so giving strange looks is justify when it demands payment for goods delivered.
Do you thing steeling is wrong???

but if you look at the latest stuff coming out from China, there is not that much that's even based on Russian stuff. Outside of J-11B, the only thing I can think of that is even based on Russian stuff is a couple of sensors on 054A (none of which is copied contrary to what Russians may say), their copy of D-30, WS-13, missile component of HQ-9 and possibly the large transport (although we haven't seen its photos yet).

Right .... but this is oftopic already ...

[SkolZkiy]

Knocking over Georgia did not show that Russia is a superpower. If it is, then Tanzania showed it was a superpower when it invaded Uganda & overthrew Idi Amin, Vietnam showed it was a superpower when it overthrew the Khmer Rouge, Rwanda showed it was a superpower in Congo in 1996, & Iraq showed its superpower status in 1990, with the conquest of Kuwait (a much better-armed state than Georgia, BTW).

Think what a superpower is. It is not a country able to defeat a small, poor, weak, neighbour.

I meant not military victory - but it is also very important for moral power of our army but about the political battle between Russia and US&co. We destroyed US satellite even under mass information and political attack from west. And this is very important. And by the way - Georgian Army was more powerful then anybody in former USSR and also it has information support from US and Turkey (AWACS).
So I think that Russia unofficially could support Taiwan. China and Russia are not friends - we are partners, with it's own interests. May be we have some interest in Taiwan or may be not. I wouldn't believe any unofficial info about this.

[tphuang]

well, I just posted my thoughts on this on my blog
China Air and Naval Power: Regarding the recent story about Russia helping Taiwan (http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2009/06/regarding-recent-story-about-russia.html)
including the part on why it can't be true.

It has everything to do with politics/economics. Countries don't sell weapons to Taiwan, because they are worried about the political and economical ramifications rather than military exports. France, Germany, UK and Israel can't export to China, but they still refuse to deal with Taiwan. Recently, US received hell from China for the military package that Bush approved in 2008. All things considered, the package approved for Taiwan was actually very watered down. Even so, the hard time that China gave the Bush administration probably made the Obama administration think twice about selling F-16s there. After all, supplying 60 F-16s from 2012 to 2015 really isn't going to turn the balance of power in Taiwan straits, but that deal is basically off the table now. The military balance across the straits swung in PRC’s direction permanently earlier this decade. Future military exports to Taiwan will offend China more from a political rather than a military point of view. Simply put, China will look at any military exports to Taiwan as an insult to its sovereignty. The global economic downturn has accelerated China’s position in the world. At this point, it would be hard for countries needing China’s financial help to alienate it over Taiwan. For example, US doesn't want to aggravate the Taiwan situation when it needs China to keep on buying its treasury bonds and keeping interest rate low and inflation down.

Comparatively speaking, Russia is dealing from an even weaker position when dealing with China. The Russian leadership is looking to change the world financial system (like a new world order) with a new reserve currency that is not controlled by the US gov't. It wants to stop having to buy US treasuries and stop doing import/export deals in USD. Russia basically showed in the past week that it is looking for the BRIC countries as a major part of the new world order replacing the US led G-8. Clearly, China has by far the most leverage and economic muscle to support this new world order. Russia knows that none of its goals can be accomplished without China's full support. However, China has far more invested in US than the other BRIC countries (with the $2 trillion in US assets compared to $400 billion for Russia). It wants China to support the initiatives of buying gov't bonds from other BRIC countries, doing currency swaps, trading in local currencies and such. In each case, China's support can make or break the initiative. Finally, China’s financial support to SCO is also important, because it allows the gov’t there to continue their anti-West and pro-Russia/China policies.

On top of that, it has recently signed a huge energy cooperation agreement with China. As shown in the recent month, the energy/commodities market was basically rescued by a lot of demand from China. Since Russia's natural resources are its most important export, it needs continued Chinese demand to sustain spot prices for its exported resources. Think about it this way, oil and gas alone accounted for 64% of Russia's exports in 2007. If the remaining export remained the same and the average energy prices dropped 75% in one year (spot prices for oil dropped from over $150 a barrel to lower than $40 early this year), that would mean the Russian export would be 16% + 36 = 52% of last year's numbers. Now, if Chinese demand can more than double the energy prices (which it has in the past 3 months), then the export would take about a 30% hit instead of almost 50% hit from last year (although in reality, it doesn’t work like this, but you get an idea). So, you can see that the Chinese market not only affects Russia’s trade with China but also with Europe.

Finally, Russia and China have a lot of mutual goals and share a lot of common positions on international issues. I don’t think I need to go over the political cooperation between the two countries over the past couple of years. Clearly, Russia is not going to jeopardize its economic and political partnership with China just for a couple of new military contracts with Taiwan. The head of the states of the two countries met 3 times last week (once for BRIC, once for SCO and once as a state visit). Clearly, the relationship between the two countries is very good despite the recent declines in military sales and other issues like imbalance in the contents of trading. Having looked at all of these factors, it makes me wonder why certain people believe this kind of story so easily.


Now to respond to some of the replies:

Tphuang you overestimate Chinese power. Russia showed in 080808 that it becomes super power once more. China depend on Russia as Russia on China - nothing more. and do not overestimate the number of Chinese spies in Russia - our guys if they want keep secrets very very well - this is known by everybody.
May be 10 years ago we needed China more then China needed Russia but now we are equal.
You want to say that SCO and BRIK are unnecessary for China?? You want to say that China didn't need to change current world financial system? If so i have a question - what the hell China is doing in those organizations if it doesn't need them??

USA has invaded many countries around the world, yet Hilary Clinton came to China, got on her two knees and begged China to keep purchasing those treasury bonds. Tim Geithner came to do the same and got laughed at by Chinese students.
As for SCO and BRIC, you clearly didn't understand my points, If you read above, it's what Russia is trying to accomplish through these organizations that's important. It can't accomplish the things it wants to without Chinese support. And why should China be that enthusiastic, when US is actively talking about the concept of G-2 for solving world financial problems?


So I think that Russia unofficially could support Taiwan.

In the recent meetings between Medvedev and Hu, Medvedev said firmly against that it strongly supports China's stands on Taiwan. In fact, it was one of the points on the communique. And Russia got support back for its actions in Georgia. But this is what you need to know. Russia selling weapons to Taiwan would be like China selling weapons to Georgia to take back Ossetia.

[tphuang]

Now lets see ... Im not talking here about official weapons sales to Taiwan but unofficially why is it unimaginable for you to belive there is a chance Russia is helping Taiwan build some fighter throwout some gost company in the same way China is unofficially copy-pasting Russian (and others weapons but here we are not disscussing others) but officially it is not but developing whole new concepts based on their own brains that just happen to look alike ....

I think you missed the point here ....




Unlike US and EU ... Russia is self-sufficient and not depended on anyone ... it has land and energy and tehnological basis for all its citizens ...

up to this point, you have failed to grasp my posts thus far.


I dont agree with this completely ... cozz they are in this anti-US thing togeather and none of them stands a chance on its own .... so saying Russia needs China because otherwise it can not resist NATO etc expansion without China influence and money stands no ground ... both countries make use of BRIC and SCO for its own purpose and are growing, developing and challenging US influence but none of them is there just to suck otherones d....k ...

So saying Russia needs China money ... yes it needs everybodies money but still holds hudge reserves on its own ....

China on the other hand has trubelsome energy supply on witch it can not rely in case of war with Taiwan/US/India etc so NEEDS Russia as an alternative to its supply routes. etc etc ....

As I explained, the effect of China on Russian economy cannot be understated. It actually hasn't bought that much oil and gas from Russia, but if it decides to dramatically increase the strategic reserve at anytime, it would have far reaching effects on the value of Russian exports. Europeans basically have to pay more for Russian gas because of the "China effect". But that's just the energy aspect. The more important part when it comes to economy is what I mentioned in my blog entry. Again, I haven't wrote out the entire details, but you can read a lot of this online right now. A lot of articles surrounding this came out recently. It's not that hard to get a basic grasp of the issues.

China got licence to build 200 planes for 2.5 Bin ... witch is as same as they where given for free and still now complaines and etc ....

J-11 was its licence build plane ... J-11B is not but copy-paste Russian Su-27 with China subsystems on it ...

It's not China's fault that the Russians signed such a bad deal. btw, they would not have put in those su-30 orders if they didn't get the licensed production. And again, they didn't anticipate that China could localize the parts so fast, that their upgrades would not be accepted. Look at su-30mki, Russia is getting so much more money from that deal, because India couldn't achieve the 100% indigenization.

As for J-11B, that's the point right. It's still a Russian design, but using only Chinese parts. They were certainly allowed under the original agreement to have 100% localization. And they haven't reached the 200 unit mark, why shouldn't they keep on producing?


So you are admitting China copy-paste its weapons ... its good to have common ground and something to begin from ...

So you are giving me a reason for Russia acting as a jerk "as you or China see it" because they where not complaining until China decided to copy-paste its weapons and steel other ones 100% and because of it not making any money ... LOL

Do you think Russia is some kind of samaritan state so giving money and weapon for free is something natural expected from them so giving strange looks is justify when it demands payment for goods delivered.
Do you thing steeling is wrong???

I'm not say China is right in copying certain Russian systems, but that this has been going on for a long time and Russia never changed its Taiwan policies during those years, why do you think it would change now when its relationship with China in areas other than military export is better than ever?

[SkolZkiy]

Tphuang I understand you
you overestimate chineese influence on the world, as the most part in China and of course leaders of China. China signed the treaty for defending authors rights (stopping coppying Ru weapons) - it is and it was and it will be only a piece of paper for China and doesn't mean anything. So why do you that only WORDS of our president gave 100% guarantee of his honesty. China always speaks many things but often they don't about anything of that, they don't even about signed treaties - so why we should care?? I see no reason - if have some reasons to help Taiwan then we'll help.

[tphuang]

Tphuang I understand you
you overestimate chineese influence on the world, as the most part in China and of course leaders of China. China signed the treaty for defending authors rights (stopping coppying Ru weapons) - it is and it was and it will be only a piece of paper for China and doesn't mean anything. So why do you that only WORDS of our president gave 100% guarantee of his honesty. China always speaks many things but often they don't about anything of that, they don't even about signed treaties - so why we should care?? I see no reason - if have some reasons to help Taiwan then we'll help.
I'm not overestimating Chinese influence. You don't understand finance.

China hasn't signed that at all. If Russia doesn't want to export any future weapon systems to China because China didn't sign it, then let it be that. Don't make up stuff.

[SkolZkiy]

So it was lie that China have signed that treaty or you mean that it was not ratified?

[tphuang]

So it was lie that China have signed that treaty or you mean that it was not ratified?

according to a kanwa article that I read in April, Russia wishes that China would sign on to an intellectual property agreement and that they would give up all claims to previously contested issues like J-11B, although it's not known how they would feel about future variants of J-11s. I can't see China signing something like that though.

[Musashi_kenshin]

well, I just posted my thoughts on this on my blog
I agree with some of the points you made in relation to why it is improbable Russia will make an overt sales to Taiwan and unlikely even to have direct military co-operation, I don't agree with a couple of secondary points.

Many countries do not sell weapons to Taiwan, but a few apart from the US do co-operate on military affairs. For example, BAE is British and supplying part of the new avionics package for the IDF upgrade.

China made a lot of rhetoric about the 2008 arms sales, yet the consequences were not that significant. It broke off military talks for a number of months before re-starting them. Maybe that's China's idea of putting its foot down, but I'm not sure it made that much of an impact in America.

The F-16 sale is not off the table. If anything it's on the table and being seriously considered.

[tphuang]

I agree with some of the points you made in relation to why it is improbable Russia will make an overt sales to Taiwan and unlikely even to have direct military co-operation, I don't agree with a couple of secondary points.

Many countries do not sell weapons to Taiwan, but a few apart from the US do co-operate on military affairs. For example, BAE is British and supplying part of the new avionics package for the IDF upgrade.

the BAE stuff just haven't popped onto China's radar yet. Believe me, if it's anything major, it wouldn't have slipped under the radar.

China made a lot of rhetoric about the 2008 arms sales, yet the consequences were not that significant. It broke off military talks for a number of months before re-starting them. Maybe that's China's idea of putting its foot down, but I'm not sure it made that much of an impact in America.

The F-16 sale is not off the table. If anything it's on the table and being seriously considered.
well, the 2008 sales was very defensive and shouldn't even have been protested if you think about it, but they still made a huge deal about it. I think US was caught off guard about China's reaction.

[Musashi_kenshin]

the BAE stuff just haven't popped onto China's radar yet.

I think China will be aware of it - it was openly publicised.

well, the 2008 sales was very defensive and shouldn't even have been protested if you think about it, but they still made a huge deal about it. I think US was caught off guard about China's reaction.

I agree that China shouldn't have protested the 2008 sales, but it's too late now - it set a precedent. Next time it has to step things up or acknowledge that it won't do anything substantial (at least to the US - maybe to others).

However, the US did expect a reaction. Did they expect a suspension of military exchanges, etc I don't know.

[kay_man]

I think China will be aware of it - it was openly publicised.



I agree that China shouldn't have protested the 2008 sales, but it's too late now - it set a precedent. Next time it has to step things up or acknowledge that it won't do anything substantial (at least to the US - maybe to others).

However, the US did expect a reaction. Did they expect a suspension of military exchanges, etc I don't know.

i agree with the arguments put forward by musashi.
the 3rd generation aircraft may be an ofshoot of the Pak-fa project and the assistance may come from maybe India /Brazil etc.
like in the case of the Su-30 MKI and Su-30 MKM.
if im not wrong HAL still supplies some components for the MKM variant.

[Ozzy Blizzard]

A few points.


While an overt military relationship with Taiwan is out of the question the Russians could have under the table input in my opinion. Lets remember the Sino-Russian military relationship is symbiotic, the Chinese need the Russians, just as the Russians need the Chinese.
China has virtually no other choice but to buy US bonds, there is no other reliable game in town in terms of investing their currency reserves. If they don't buy treasury bonds are they just going to put it under the mattress? If they don't buy bonds the US economy recovers slower, Chinese exports are sluggish and it hurts both parties.
Chinese economic input in Russia is minimal, its the EU that really matters.
China would be hard pressed to make a huge international fuss without proof of Russian involvement. HUMINT wont do because you would compromise your assets.
defeating a small power on your periphery DOES NOT make you a superpower. It shows your military is capable of very limited offensive operations, albeit poorly executed.