Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Feanor]

Please everyone, take the politics and energy policy discussion elsewhere. This thread is for posting news (NEWS!) and analysis (not arguing about who's right and wrong) while the other thread is locked. Mods please keep this thread open for now, as for many people this forum is the primary source of up to date info on the conflict.

12:15 in the Georgian part of the Kodori Gorge, the Abkhazian flag was raised.
13:20 Despite end of combat operations, Russian recon teams are still operating outside the conflict zone, in Georgia proper. It seems these recon teams were the troops that had entered Senaki and Gori, Georgian forces retreating in a hurry may have mistaken them for avantgarde of the main force.
13:40 General HQ from the Russian side confirmed that high-precision munitions were used in the conflict.
13:40 Russian troops have taken over the airbase at Senaki and all of Abkhazia that was previously in Georgian hands.
13:49 No Georgian troops are leaving the conflict zone.
13:50 General HQ denies bombing of oil-pipelines.
14:00 Russian General HQ requests for international observers in the conflict zone.
14:36 NATO has announced that they will look at the possibility of military aid to Georgia, whether this will be to rebuild the Georgian military, or to directly support Georgia I don't know.
15:16 Yakobashvili (Georgian minister) said that war is not over for Georgia as long as Russian troops are there.
16:35 Georgia announces planned withdrawal from the CIS.
16:58 Georgian forces shelled Russian positions after Russia has declared an end to combat operations.
17:33 Saakashvili annuls all agreements about Abkhazian status and declares it occupied territory.
18:00 Saakashvili says he personally saw Russian tanks and artillery destroy Ts'hinvali. :rolleyes: :D
19:50 The American injured int he fighting turned out to be a journalist.
20:30 Abkhazia declared an end to the Kodori Gorge operation, saying it's now completely under Abkhazian control
20:45 Georgia appeals to the U.N. court which says it's ready to look at the military operations in Ossetia.
20:46 Russia declares it had captured Georgian plans for invasion of Abkhazia.

Photos and timeline from lenta.ru
Georgian tank column.
http://img.lenta.ru/news/2008/08/12/plan1/picture.jpg
Abkhazian soldier
http://img.lenta.ru/news/2008/08/12/finish/picture.jpg

Also Colonel-General Nogovitsuin reported that the Russian military did not enter any areas of Georgia outside the conflict zones of Abkhazia and Ossetia, at the same vowed that Russian recon units would continue recon into Georgia proper.

Colonel-General Nogovitsuin
http://kommersant.com/photo/300/News/2008/08/12/KMO_066766_00088_1m.jpg

Finally a little more elaboration on the precision weapons used from kommersant, which reported that they were the KAB-500L laser-guided bombs.

Photo from rian.ru

http://img.beta.rian.ru/images/15032/28/150322833.jpg

[Pro'forma]

Its glad to see russian finally realising their participating in peace can be useful. Only yet the troops are in georgian surface.

I have no way to courage any 'living in exile' way of life; yet the territorial
integrity has not attain to its place.

[eaf-f16]

Are the recon teams special forces? :confused: They usually are...

[eckherl]

Are the recon teams special forces? :confused: They usually are...

Most likely Spetsnaz.

[AegisFC]

Keep this thread on topic, do not digress into personal theories, biased discussion or opinion. This thread is strictly for legitimate news of the combat operations of Georgia and Russia.

[Dago]

Good information. Looking forward to hearing more updates as they become forthcoming. Is there any information of TU-160's Blackjack operating? I've heard unconfirmed reports. The likelyhood would signal yes as it's close to Russia Strategic arm.

[weasel1962]

Deleted

[weasel1962]

Deleted

[Feanor]

Accuracy issues in both reports. At this point it's clear that Russia never took Gori and that Russian troops weren't involved in the Abkhazian offensive. It was a purely Abkhazian move to retake the Kodori Gorge. The entry of Russian peacekeepers into Zugdidi was apparently done with Georgian permission and without any fighting.

Finally the Russian move was not a trap. Given the relatively poor (in my opinion) performance of the VVS it wasn't ready for this. Russian response from th 58th Army was fast because the 58th Army had only recently completed the Caucus 2008 training exercise which was in preparation for exactly this type of operation. Overall Georgian forces were very well composed and almost completely took Ts'hinvali. At one point the only real resistance left in the city was near the road heading iirc north out of the city.

The real motivation is closer to Georgia. The december NATO shot was a no-go if there were two frozen conflicts and German and French opposition. However if Georgia could resolve the conflicts and thus display Russia as powerless, it would have had a much better chance.

Finally some news out of the conflict zone. Russian troops are now posed on the borders of Georgia and Abkhazia, with apparently some Russian troops in Georgia proper, in Zugdidi. The Russian Navy is deployed to Abkhazia and the sinking of one Georgian missile boat has been confirmed by Tbilisi. Also the bombing of the Tbilisi airport radar and the taking of Gori have now been confirmed to be untrue by the Georgians. There are still small groups of Georgian forces in Ossetia that are being rouded up by Russian forces. Russian humanitarian aid convoys have arrived in Southern Ossetia.

On the political front a plan for settlement has been developed between Sarkozi and Medvedev, the plan is now on it's way to Tbilisi for agreement from the Georgian side. The plan includes international diplomatic effort for the problems of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia, but conspicuously lacks anything in regards to Georgian territorial integrity. When Sarkozi was questioned about that by the press he dodged the question whie re-affirming that Russia still recognizes Georgia as a sovereign country.

Russian casualties for the conflict seem to be 18-21 dead, 70 wounded, and 4 planes downed. Georgian casualties are unconfirmed, but I've seen 150 as the most recent number including civlians and military. 3 downed Georgian planes, and ~22 tanks destroyed in the direct hostilities. A number of tanks was also destroyed by air strikes.

[weasel1962]

Deleted

[eckherl]

@Feanor,

Here is a different angle photo of the same tank that I posted a couple of days ago, you can see the ERA arrangement alot better.

[Feanor]

Yeah you can. So it's confirmed that it's a Russian tank and that K-5 has been retrofitted to T-72's?

EDIT: It can't be a T-90, there aren't any in the conflict zone. Could it be a Georgian tank? The Russian MoD didn't report any tank casualties. And another after thought, could the Russian casualties be much higher then those officially reported? Georgia claims 400 Russians dead, Russian MoD claims 21.

[DefConGuru]

Would Georgian tanks be carrying extra fuel? It could be a Georgian T-72 fitted with some ERA and slat protection.

In regards to casualities, if anything the Georgians are low balling their own figures of 150 dead including civilians...

[JohanGrön]

And another after thought, could the Russian casualties be much higher then those officially reported? Georgia claims 400 Russians dead, Russian MoD claims 21.

Swedish media (TT) reported that russian casualties are much higher than officially recognized from russian authorities. No figures are given but the intel was supposedly coming directly from russian servicemen involved in the conflict. I'll try to dig up a link to this!

EDIT: Found it, it's two days old and ran on numerous newssites in Sweden.

Here's one of them (in swedish).
(h)ttp://nyhetskanalen.se/1.575679/2008/08/11/ryska_trupper_inne_i_georgien

Informationen om krisen präglas av desinformation och ren propaganda, där bägge sidor föreföll vackla mellan att vilja framstå som den starkaste - eller den mest förfördelade - i konflikten.
Ryska soldater på sjukhuset i nordossetiska Vladikavkaz berättade för reportrar på plats att georgierna gör hårdare motstånd än vad den ryska militärledningen erkänner.
-Det som sägs på tv är bara nonsens. Våra förluster är mycket större än de säger.
Människorättsorganisationen Human Rights Watch (HRW) anklagade Ryssland för att överdriva uppgifterna om döda och fördrivna sydossetier. Enligt Ryssland har uppskattningsvis 2 000 sydossetier dödats, men enligt HRW är siffrorna lägre. HRW tror också att de ryska uppgifterna om antalet flyktingar från regionen - senast 30 000 - är felaktiga eftersom många flyende kan ha räknats mer än en gång.

Translation:
The information on the crisis is marked by disinformation and pure propaganda, in which both sides seemed to vacillate between wanting to appear to be the strongest - or the most aggrieved - in the conflict. Russian soldiers at the hospital in Vladikavkaz (North Ossetia) told reporters on the ground that Georgians make tougher opposition than what the Russian military acknowledges.

"- What it is said on TV are just nonsense. Our losses are much greater than they say."

The human rights organisation Human Rights Watch (HRW) accused Russia of exaggerating information on the dead and displaced South Ossetians. According to Russia has an estimated 2 000 South Ossetians were killed, but according to HRW, figures are lower. HRW also believe that the Russian data on the number of refugees from the region - the last 30 000 - are inaccurate because many escaping may have been counted more than once.

[FluffyThoughts]

What are the Balts and the Ukrainians up to? A de facto alliance against Russia that will draw NATO into further deployments on the Russian border?

Russia may have won the battle: have they lost the diplomatic war? Do we have any independent (non-NATO/EU/Russian) views on this conflict..?

[weasel1962]

Deleted

[FluffyThoughts]

In a weasel move, apparently separatist forces (ie Ossetians) have entered Gori. So whilst the Russkis are abiding by the ceasefire, the separatist do not have that same obligation...

Interesting....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_russia;_ylt=Aq2NUePVc_jR_E3h8Xup5F.s0NUE

SkyNews are quoting these tanks as Russian. Apparently their mission was to drop-off Norwegian journalists. :rolleyes:

[nevidimka]

The CNn kept reporting that Gerogia has about 7 combat planes. B4 the war started didn't Georgia have about 100+?

Also if Nato tries to absorb Ukraine, I think there will be some form of Russian intervention militarily or the breakup of Ukraine.

Seriously if these former Soviet States think they are improving their security by joining NATO they are seriously mistaken. They are instead making their territory even more vulnerable to war and a possible nuclear strike.

[Ozzy Blizzard]

The CNn kept reporting that Gerogia has about 7 combat planes. B4 the war started didn't Georgia have about 100+?

Also if Nato tries to absorb Ukraine, I think there will be some form of Russian intervention militarily or the breakup of Ukraine.

Seriously if these former Soviet States think they are improving their security by joining NATO they are seriously mistaken. They are instead making their territory even more vulnerable to war and a possible nuclear strike.

Mate i have to disagree with you there. The Russians have shown their regional power status by this conflict (realistically this was allways going to be the outcome), but if you think Putin is going to intervene military with a NATO member then you're crazier than he would be. By its very foundations any military action on a NATO member means a full millitary response from every member. If any member refused to defend the Ukraine the alliance would effectively dissolve, and no major EU power (or the yanks) are going to let the cornerstone of their security evaporate over a minor conflict with the Russians.

This aggressive action will have two effects in Russia's FSU neighbors. If they have the option they will align even closer with a competing power (i.e. the west or China) or they will cow to the Russians. In the case of the Ukraine, a nation who already has significant (and popular) western leanings and NATO membership intentions, this will only drive them headlong into the hands of the west, who will realize that the only thing that will stop Russian aggression is NATO membership. If anything this little Georgian adventure will swell the ranks of NATO.

As for the breakup of the Ukraine, somehow i doubt that.

[Chrom]

Russian MOD briefing: Overalll russian combined losses:

74 KIA
171 WIA
19 MIA (including possible captured by Georgians)

The data are still not final.

Ossetian army/police losses are not public, but should be several times greater.

Russians final losses will be in order 100-120 KIA i think

Georgian army losses - at least 1200 KIA and 3000-4000 MIA, but real figures are still not publicized.

[Burunsuzoglu]

Are the recon teams special forces? :confused: They usually are... Don't know, lot looked like they had just been dragged off the streets of Grozny

[Burunsuzoglu]

The CNn kept reporting that Gerogia has about 7 combat planes. B4 the war started didn't Georgia have about 100+?

Also if Nato tries to absorb Ukraine, I think there will be some form of Russian intervention militarily or the breakup of Ukraine.

Seriously if these former Soviet States think they are improving their security by joining NATO they are seriously mistaken. They are instead making their territory even more vulnerable to war and a possible nuclear strike. The figure probably includes their helicopters including a number of ex USA/Turkey UH-1Hs

[Burunsuzoglu]

Russian MOD briefing: Overalll russian combined losses:

74 KIA
171 WIA
19 MIA (including possible captured by Georgians)

The data are still not final.

Ossetian army/police losses are not public, but should be several times greater.

Russians final losses will be in order 100-120 KIA i think

Georgian army losses - at least 1200 KIA and 3000-4000 MIA, but real figures are still not publicized. In that case you can probably add another 0 onto the Russian casualties.

[Chrom]

In that case you can probably add another 0 onto the Russian casualties. Impossible. In first 2 days (when most losses inflicted) there were not enough russian troops for such casualties. In last 2 days Georgians were already routed, so russian casualties were very low.

Witnessed said Gori hospital alone in 8,9,10 August accepted ~ 1500 WIA.

[eckherl]

Yeah you can. So it's confirmed that it's a Russian tank and that K-5 has been retrofitted to T-72's?

EDIT: It can't be a T-90, there aren't any in the conflict zone. Could it be a Georgian tank? The Russian MoD didn't report any tank casualties. And another after thought, could the Russian casualties be much higher then those officially reported? Georgia claims 400 Russians dead, Russian MoD claims 21.

It has to be a Russian T-72 retrofitted with K5, they were the only ones that had some of their tanks fitted with it. Look at the second tank in this photo, this is one of the first Russian units coming in the conflict.

[Type59]

It has to be a Russian T-72 retrofitted with K5, they were the only ones that had some of their tanks fitted with it. Look at the second tank in this photo, this is one of the first Russian units coming in the conflict.

Regarding the first T-72 in the picture. On the right of the gunners vision block is that a thermal imaging sight beside it?

[Burunsuzoglu]

It has to be a Russian T-72 retrofitted with K5, they were the only ones that had some of their tanks fitted with it. Look at the second tank in this photo, this is one of the first Russian units coming in the conflict. what's that behind the T72, T80?

[merocaine]

@ Mods
I thought there was a prohibition against excessive one liners?

(I realize that this is...)

[nevidimka]

It has to be a Russian T-72 retrofitted with K5, they were the only ones that had some of their tanks fitted with it. Look at the second tank in this photo, this is one of the first Russian units coming in the conflict.

hmm..I'm confused. The tank in front with its shield for the gunner and its ERA look just like those Georgian T-72's they been showing in the news all these time.

But the tank behind it does have Russian ERA. Suppose this is a Georgian T72 tank which was abandoned n now captured by russians?


Plus the tank behind the front does look like it has the APS. Drodz?

[nevidimka]

Mate i have to disagree with you there. The Russians have shown their regional power status by this conflict (realistically this was allways going to be the outcome), but if you think Putin is going to intervene military with a NATO member then you're crazier than he would be. By its very foundations any military action on a NATO member means a full millitary response from every member. If any member refused to defend the Ukraine the alliance would effectively dissolve, and no major EU power (or the yanks) are going to let the cornerstone of their security evaporate over a minor conflict with the Russians.

This aggressive action will have two effects in Russia's FSU neighbors. If they have the option they will align even closer with a competing power (i.e. the west or China) or they will cow to the Russians. In the case of the Ukraine, a nation who already has significant (and popular) western leanings and NATO membership intentions, this will only drive them headlong into the hands of the west, who will realize that the only thing that will stop Russian aggression is NATO membership. If anything this little Georgian adventure will swell the ranks of NATO.

As for the breakup of the Ukraine, somehow i doubt that.


NO I ment Russian intervention prior to Ukraine becoming a NATO member, because if they let it too late it would become complicated.

Just like in the Georgian situation.

[eckherl]

Regarding the first T-72 in the picture. On the right of the gunners vision block is that a thermal imaging sight beside it?

No it is not, they are equipped with IR, you will notice that both tanks are equipped with IR searchlights located at the left hand side of the gun tube.

[eckherl]

what's that behind the T72, T80?

No T-80`s were involved in this conflict, the tanks in the photo are all T-72 model Bs, this unit most likely was in the process of going to the K5 upgrade before their big exercise that they were involved in prior to hostilities breaking out.

[eckherl]

hmm..I'm confused. The tank in front with its shield for the gunner and its ERA look just like those Georgian T-72's they been showing in the news all these time.

But the tank behind it does have Russian ERA. Suppose this is a Georgian T72 tank which was abandoned n now captured by russians?


Plus the tank behind the front does look like it has the APS. Drodz?

Both Russia and Georgia were fighting with T-72B1 model tanks with early Russian generation ERA packages which have made it very confusing on what belongs to who on the battlefield, I would like to read the Russian and Georgian after action reports if they ever become public to see how they handled the fracticide issue. APS that I cannot see.

[SABRE]

Lately we have had multiple threads on Russia and Georgia conflict & all following the same pattern where members disobey the rules and threads getting closed. In addition there have been several complains regarding these thread and all the moderators are getting tired of it. Therefore, I am leaving an advance warning.

Any sort of flaming, personal attacks, senseless one liners & disobedience of the rules will get this thread locked, may be get some members banned, and more threads on Georgia-Russia will "not" be allowed.

Hoping for your cooperation.

Thanks!

[DarthAmerica]

Both Russia and Georgia were fighting with T-72B1 model tanks with early Russian generation ERA packages which have made it very confusing on what belongs to who on the battlefield, I would like to read the Russian and Georgian after action reports if they ever become public to see how they handled the fracticide issue. APS that I cannot see.


It could be an utter nightmare to sort out IMV. The Russians aren't very keen on combat operations at night either which could add to the confusion. Look at the times of the major offensives. Daytime. The pilots on both sides would also have their hands full. Kind of reminds me of doing force on force at places like Irwin where the "Krasnovians" have "T-80's" which somehow manage to look like Abrams minus the side skirts, 55 Gal drums welded to the back deck and cammo nets rolled up along the gun tube. Surprisingly effective Vis Mod BUT in the heat of things it's not hard to make a mistake at distance. After all, an M1 is an M1 when you are in a hurry. Similarly a T-72, is a T-72.

CNN has an embed with the Russian armor unit IVO Tbilisi. I'm sure there will be plenty of film we can go over coming soon. The fact that a CNN embed is rolling with the Russians is both news worth and militarily significant by itself!

Also fascinating is the coordinated Cyber attacks and Airstrikes by the Russian Air Force against Georgian communications links to the outside world.

-DA

[SABRE]

This is now the only dedicated thread to the Russian-Georgian conflict. No other threads are allowed on this issue. Everything that goes on in this conflict goes into this thread.

Thanks you!

[Type59]

No it is not, they are equipped with IR, you will notice that both tanks are equipped with IR searchlights located at the left hand side of the gun tube.


I asked because I never seen it before, until this conflict. This feature must only be on Soviet tanks because Russia and Georgia both have this feature?!

Note the picture I have circled the area I thought might be Thermal scope but it is not.

[Grand Danois]

Did the MOSKVA take a hit from a Termit/Exocet missile(s) during the battle with Georgian missile boats? Where is the MOSKVA now?

http://www.informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

[Burunsuzoglu]

Did the MOSKVA take a hit from a Termit/Exocet missile(s) during the battle with Georgian missile boats? Where is the MOSKVA now?

If it took a hit from an exocet one would assume the bottom of the Black Sea.

[nevidimka]

Did the MOSKVA take a hit from a Termit/Exocet missile(s) during the battle with Georgian missile boats? Where is the MOSKVA now?

http://www.informationdissemination.blogspot.com/


What is your source for that? Only naval action that's been confirmed is the sinking of a Georgian ship by the Russians.

[Grand Danois]

If it took a hit from an exocet one would assume the bottom of the Black Sea.

No. It is a big ship (11,490 tons full load) and Exocet is not that big a missile. USS Stark and an IDF Saar 5 survived missile hits, just as USS Cole survived a VIED.

http://flot.sevastopol.info/eng/ship/cruisers/slava.htm

[Grand Danois]

What is your source for that? Only naval action that's been confirmed is the sinking of a Georgian ship by the Russians.

I added a link before you replied. ;) I'm just trying to find out if she has been spotted so we can find out if it is true.

[nevidimka]

Both Russia and Georgia were fighting with T-72B1 model tanks with early Russian generation ERA packages which have made it very confusing on what belongs to who on the battlefield, I would like to read the Russian and Georgian after action reports if they ever become public to see how they handled the fracticide issue. APS that I cannot see.


When I 1st saw the videos of Georgian tanks with their ERA's and gunner shield which didn't look so Russian, I thought it was because they were upgraded by western, Ukrainian tech.

SO when I saw the same gunner shield on the Russian tank pic.. I got confused. Even the T90 doesn't have gunner shield protection like on that russian T-72!


And I think The Russians used heavy electronic,cyber warfare to completely overwhelm the Georgians, which gives credence to their panicking and running away towards Tbilisi.

[Chrom]

Did the MOSKVA take a hit from a Termit/Exocet missile(s) during the battle with Georgian missile boats? Where is the MOSKVA now?

http://www.informationdissemination.blogspot.com/


This is "face saving" rumors from Georgian side. In the realms of 500 russian tanks destroyed, etc.

While i cant be 100% sure, but it seems there were no such event. After 3 day we would know it almost for sure. Moreover, official version of russion MOD is Georgian boats were sunk with artillery. Plus, of course, vessels which were sunked werent equipped with ASM, let alone Exocet.

[eckherl]

I asked because I never seen it before, until this conflict. This feature must only be on Soviet tanks because Russia and Georgia both have this feature?!

Note the picture I have circled the area I thought might be Thermal scope but it is not.

That is actually a independant searchlight that the gunner can use with either white light or with a IR lense which comes in handy when using IR goggles. Here is a better view.

[Burunsuzoglu]

No T-80`s were involved in this conflict, the tanks in the photo are all T-72 model Bs, this unit most likely was in the process of going to the K5 upgrade before their big exercise that they were involved in prior to hostilities breaking out.

Are you sure, the closer I look at the slope on the turret the more doubts I have, any way we can have a closer look at the extractor?

Has anyone heard what's happened to the Russian column heading south from Gori?

[eckherl]

It could be an utter nightmare to sort out IMV. The Russians aren't very keen on combat operations at night either which could add to the confusion. Look at the times of the major offensives. Daytime. The pilots on both sides would also have their hands full. Kind of reminds me of doing force on force at places like Irwin where the "Krasnovians" have "T-80's" which somehow manage to look like Abrams minus the side skirts, 55 Gal drums welded to the back deck and cammo nets rolled up along the gun tube. Surprisingly effective Vis Mod BUT in the heat of things it's not hard to make a mistake at distance. After all, an M1 is an M1 when you are in a hurry. Similarly a T-72, is a T-72.

CNN has an embed with the Russian armor unit IVO Tbilisi. I'm sure there will be plenty of film we can go over coming soon. The fact that a CNN embed is rolling with the Russians is both news worth and militarily significant by itself!

Also fascinating is the coordinated Cyber attacks and Airstrikes by the Russian Air Force against Georgian communications links to the outside world.

-DA

Yes - Russia had its act together in the Cyber warfare category, as soon as I heard that there was a communications blackout on the Georgians side I knew it was all over for them, they were in utter confusion after the first few hours when the Russians entered the picture. They lost their shoot, move and communicate abilities.:D

[Grand Danois]

This is "face saving" rumors from Georgian side. In the realms of 500 russian tanks destroyed, etc.

While i cant be 100% sure, but it seems there were no such event. After 3 day we would know it almost for sure. Moreover, official version of russion MOD is Georgian boats were sunk with artillery. Plus, of course, vessels which were sunked werent equipped with ASM, let alone Exocet.

But the source is not the Georgians, but apparently an Ukrainian interview with a Russian sailor.

http://www.kpunews.com/main_topic11_14200.html

[Burunsuzoglu]

But the source is not the Georgians, but apparently an Ukrainian interview with a Russian sailor.

http://www.kpunews.com/main_topic11_14200.html

Let face it the Ukrainians are hardly likely to favour the Russians, weren't they threatening to turn away any vessel that took part in combat?

[Grand Danois]

Let face it the Ukrainians are hardly likely to favour the Russians, weren't they threatening to turn away any vessel that took part in combat?

Yes, but the answer to the question is binary and not easy to hide.

[Galrahn]

This is "face saving" rumors from Georgian side. In the realms of 500 russian tanks destroyed, etc.

While i cant be 100% sure, but it seems there were no such event. After 3 day we would know it almost for sure. Moreover, official version of russion MOD is Georgian boats were sunk with artillery. Plus, of course, vessels which were sunked werent equipped with ASM, let alone Exocet.

Chrom,

I think my credibility on this forum on naval discussions has been long established. I just put up a new article on the battle (http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/08/press-report-details-battle-in-black.html) as detailed by a Russian sailor interviewed after his return to Sevastopol, less speculative than the earlier one being discussed but similar details. It is front page news in Ukraine and I linked it, and another news article in Russia with the same story.

The Moskva has been reported as taking damage in battle in both Ukrainian and and Russian news by those Georgian coastals.

[Chrom]

But the source is not the Georgians, but apparently an Ukrainian interview with a Russian sailor.

http://www.kpunews.com/main_topic11_14200.html

The Ukrainians have 3 strong fractions:

1. Radical anti-Russian (i cant even call them pro-West really, may be pro-US) minority which literally hate russians. They are partially represented in government, Ukrainian president is one of them. Very strong representation in current MVD, MOD, security forces command, some medians.

2. Much less radical pro-West relative practical, relative large fraction. They just want better life and think West will help with it and can protect them against Russian influence. These mostly only cares about they money. Premier-minister Timoshenko is one of them. If Russia become rich and powerful enough they will bend to russian side immediately.

3. Large fraction of russian supporters due cultural reason. Formally, represented by large Yanukovich party, but the later is in fact more in between 2nd and 3rd camp.

"Smaller" medians and regional elite is also very different, large East areas mostly pro-russian, central regions are mixed, some relative small West areas
are anti-russians.

As such, there is all kind of propaganda now in Ukrainian medians - ranging from Saakashvilli propaganda nonsense to russian propaganda point of view. They dont have independent sources, so everything they write is either cross-posting or pure fantasy.

P.S. Would you give me link to russian news please?

P.P.S. In that article there is nothing about Georgian missiles fired. I think even IF such indecent took place, cruiser could be damaged by artillery.

[Grand Danois]

Chrom,

I aware of the split in Ukraine, however such a report can dismissed or confirmed quite easily - as opposed to tank losses. That's why I enquired into if anyone had noticed it returning to Sebastopol.

Btw, They do have Exocets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dioskuria.jpg

[Galrahn]

Russian news reports 4 ships returned to Sevastopol. Article here in English (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080813/116019514.html).

[Burunsuzoglu]

Chrom,

I aware of the split in Ukraine, however such a report can dismissed or confirmed quite easily - as opposed to tank losses. That's why I enquired into if anyone had noticed it returning to Sebastopol.

Btw, They do have Exocets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dioskuria.jpg

Their vessels are french so it would make sense.

[Grand Danois]

Russian news reports 4 ships returned to Sevastopol. Article here in English (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080813/116019514.html).

Don't know if that picture is archive material, but I don't think MOSKVA is among them. Those SS-N-12 Sandbox launchers are quite distinct.

[Feanor]

A few more updates. Georgia claims 40 destroyed Russian tank. Georgian official casualties are numbered at 175 dead. Unofficially witnesses report much higher. Official Russian casualties are 74 dead, unoficially are considered much higher. Georgia claims 19 downed Russian aircraft, Russia admits to losing 4. From 2-6 Georgia aircraft were destroyed. Also Russian forces were reported " evacuating" captured Georgian military supplies from bases in Georgia proper. Finally only recently two Georgian UAV's were shot down over the conflict zone. Rumors of a Russian tank column moving towards Tbilisi have been overturned by both sides.

[Galrahn]

Don't know if that picture is archive material, but I don't think MOSKVA is among them. Those SS-N-12 Sandbox launchers are quite distinct.

Picture is bogus, it is from the Black Sea Fleet Parade earlier this year.

The 3 alligators and an unnamed missile boat were reportedly the ships that returned.

[eckherl]

Are you sure, the closer I look at the slope on the turret the more doubts I have, any way we can have a closer look at the extractor?

Has anyone heard what's happened to the Russian column heading south from Gori?

Here you go,

Compare both diagram pictures, shaded area`s represent weak points in armor protection when up against hand held anti tank devices. The bore evacuator would be in the same location because they use the same gun, 125mm even though there is different models for this gun.

Apparently they turned off when they were 10 km away from Gori.

[Chrom]

Chrom,

I aware of the split in Ukraine, however such a report can dismissed or confirmed quite easily - as opposed to tank losses. That's why I enquired into if anyone had noticed it returning to Sebastopol.

] Thats why i dont believe any ASM fired. 3 days and there are still no reports of it in any credible medians? And vaguer rumor in single Ukrainian internet-portal, which writes all kinds of nonsense?

[Chrom]

Unofficial rumors there are about 100 KIA in russian regular forces, up to 400 KIA for ossetians and ~ 500 WIA from both russian and ossetian forces in Vladikavkaz hospital. Rumors said the relative low ratio of WIA / KIA is attributed to deliberately executed russian peace keepers and especially ossetians militia in initial phase, and also initial problems to evacuate wounded.

[DarthAmerica]

Yes, but the answer to the question is binary and not easy to hide.

It is strange that there is no wider coverage of this. Unless of course you're running a well-designed cyber war and controlling the flow of information. Admittedly, that's speculation on my part. Apologies in advance of the moderators. However, taking a capital ship out of the fight is a significant event. Assuming it's true, and I don't know that for sure, this could be an indication of how effective the Russians were at keeping information dominance.

-DA

[Grand Danois]

It is strange that there is no wider coverage of this. Unless of course you're running a well-designed cyber war and controlling the flow of information. Admittedly, that's speculation on my part. Apologies in advance of the moderators. However, taking a capital ship out of the fight is a significant event. Assuming it's true, and I don't know that for sure, this could be an indication of how effective the Russians were at keeping information dominance.

-DA

If the MOSKVA was hit and the Georgians were aware, they would be trumpeting it all over the place. And AFAIK they haven't. OTOH if true, it could possibly been an OTH shot (I think it is a BAND STAND or similar) on that Tblisi boat), and the visual range fight was with the pickets and not the flag ship.

Note that if kept in the dark, the first reports would be from the sailors arriving back at Sebastopol.

If true, then note also the psychological element of not admitting to any Georgian success whilst the fighting is going on. It instills a feeling of hopelessness and futility if you cannot touch the enemy and the reverse if you have success.

Russia need only delay such news a few days.

[roberto]

Apparently this thing is expanding as Russian Navy has ignored Ukranian president legal orders.


http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080813/116019514.html
Four Russian naval ships return to Crimea from Abkhazia coast-2
Commenting on the decree later on Wednesday, Komoyedov said the Russian Navy is not duty-bound to follow the orders of the Ukrainian president.

"Russia's Black Sea Fleet is subordinate to the Russian naval commander and the commander-in-chief. It is beyond Mr. Yushchenko's jurisdiction to give orders to a Russian navy," he said.


also virtual not real.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080813/116020741.html
Sergei Lavrov also said Washington has to choose between cooperation with Russia and Georgian leaders who he described as a "virtual project" for the United States.

[eckherl]

Here is one Georgian ship that did not make it.

[Type59]

YouTube - Russian forces sink Georgian ships - 13 Aug 2008

Video of boat lying under water and claims six boats were shelled. Plus correspondent analyst.

[Chrom]

Apparently this thing is expanding as Russian Navy has ignored Ukranian president legal orders.



also virtual not real.

Dont pay too much attention to what Ukrainian president tells or orders. He told and even legally ordered all kinds of nonsense in the past, and most of it didnt lead anywhere in practical terms. Only if all 3 major Ukrainian parties (named above) agreed to something - then it could lead to something real and legal.

P.S. Russian MOD repeatedly talks about Ukrainian SA-11 and S-15. Well, SA-11 were there without a doubt. But SA-15 (Tor-1)? I thought Ukraina (Georgia more so) didnt have them? Where they could acquire it? Or it is again wrong understood briefing?

[ASFC]

Rumors of a Russian tank column moving towards Tbilisi have been overturned by both sides.

No they haven't-the 10 o'clock BBC news and Newsnight here in the UK both showed pictures their reporters took on the ground of a Russian Column heading from Gori towards Tiblisi, and it turning off into fields along the way. Whatever the Russian Army was doing along that road, they are now somewhere in the countryside between Gori and Tiblisi, and good go anywhere.

The BBC also showed pictures of a US C-17 landing in Tiblisi, unloading troops and supplies for the humanitarian mission, and one of their reporters was imbedded with a Russian Patrol in South Ossetia. What was a slow start to coverage of the conflict in the UK due to the focus on the Olympics, the BBC seems to be not so far behiind at the moment.

[Type59]

I wonder what captured systems or sub systems would be useful to Russia? We have to consider western equipment were used to enhance the largely soviet equiped army.

I expect most will be turned over to seperatist allies.

[Chrom]

I wonder what captured systems or sub systems would be useful to Russia? We have to consider westerb equipment were used to enhance the largely soviet equiped army.

I expect most will be turned over to seperatist allies.

Would be very hard to train & maintain, so will be either cheaply sold to users already in possession of similar systems or outright used for trials.

[ASFC]

I wonder what captured systems or sub systems would be useful to Russia? We have to consider western equipment were used to enhance the largely soviet equiped army.


I expect most of it will be destroyed/disabled on the spot. What the Russians are doing is not to capture equipment to make a profit or to better their own Army, but to destroy Georgian Military equipment before they leave Georgia and hence (hopefully) prevent further attack. The most expedient way of doing this is to destroy equipment on the spot. If they have time they will sieze stuff as 'war prizes' take it home and chew over it, test it, etc-but don't expect it to be large quantities of equipment.

[Type59]

I expect most of it will be destroyed/disabled on the spot. What the Russians are doing is not to capture equipment to make a profit or to better their own Army, but to destroy Georgian Military equipment before they leave Georgia and hence (hopefully) prevent further attack. The most expedient way of doing this is to destroy equipment on the spot. If they have time they will sieze stuff as 'war prizes' take it home and chew over it, test it, etc-but don't expect it to be large quantities of equipment.

Captured weapons and booty is a by product of the conflict. Russia has been stripping bases, this serves in preventing future attacks. It would be stupid to destroy everything. Georgian troops have rapidly retreated or deserted, most likely lot of equipment has not been destroyed. Also they will analyse captured equipment to see if they have been modified by western technology. As like you said to want to test them out to see the advantages these systems have. My speculation would be more valid, if I knew exactly what technology was provided by the west. Russia says Israel sold 200 million dollars worth of military goods including drones. For example, if Russia can get hold of some intact drones they will have access to advanced optics, at moment I know they have shot down many.

[DarthAmerica]

If the MOSKVA was hit and the Georgians were aware, they would be trumpeting it all over the place. And AFAIK they haven't. OTOH if true, it could possibly been an OTH shot (I think it is a BAND STAND or similar) on that Tblisi boat), and the visual range fight was with the pickets and not the flag ship.

Note that if kept in the dark, the first reports would be from the sailors arriving back at Sebastopol.

If true, then note also the psychological element of not admitting to any Georgian success whilst the fighting is going on. It instills a feeling of hopelessness and futility if you cannot touch the enemy and the reverse if you have success.

Russia need only delay such news a few days.

We also have to consider the Georgian capability to conduct BDA over a threat SAG operating OTH would be really limited and the Russians would certainly exploit that.

-DA

[Chrom]

Captured weapons and booty is a by product of the conflict. Russia has been stripping bases, this serves in preventing future attacks. It would be stupid to destroy everything. Georgian troops have rapidly retreated or deserted, most likely lot of equipment has not been destroyed. Also they will analyse captured equipment to see if they have been modified by western technology. As like you said to want to test them out to see the advantages these systems have. My speculation would be more valid, if I knew exactly what technology was provided by the west. Russia says Israel sold 200 million dollars worth of military goods including drones. For example, if Russia can get hold of some intact drones they will have access to advanced optics, at moment I know they have shot down many.

As much as i know, there were nothing exceptional in Georgian equipment what really require studying. Even Israel UAV's are not classified stuff.

[Type59]

As much as i know, there were nothing exceptional in Georgian equipment what really require studying. Even Israel UAV's are not classified stuff.

We don't, thats the point. I am only speculating but we all understand militaries are secretive by nature. I am more interested in the upgrades purchased and equipment like electronics which unlike tank or plane purchases do not recieve widespread media attention.

[eckherl]

Captured weapons and booty is a by product of the conflict. Russia has been stripping bases, this serves in preventing future attacks. It would be stupid to destroy everything. Georgian troops have rapidly retreated or deserted, most likely lot of equipment has not been destroyed. Also they will analyse captured equipment to see if they have been modified by western technology. As like you said to want to test them out to see the advantages these systems have. My speculation would be more valid, if I knew exactly what technology was provided by the west. Russia says Israel sold 200 million dollars worth of military goods including drones. For example, if Russia can get hold of some intact drones they will have access to advanced optics, at moment I know they have shot down many.

My friend, alot of this technology is every where and for a price you can get it, at least the stuff Georgia had on hand, if Russia is looting military installations it is most likely going to the friends that needed them to come to the rescue. Also even though that you do pick something up that is a good find worth keeping then you have to see if you have the industrial base to produce it and at what cost it is going to be for you, will it bring great benefits, will you be able to augument it with your other systems.

[eckherl]

We also have to consider the Georgian capability to conduct BDA over a threat SAG operating OTH would be really limited and the Russians would certainly exploit that.

-DA

Did you know that alot of their tactical radios compare to Singars, and yes they did get the radios with other communication equipment from the U.S.

[Chrom]

Did you know that alot of their tactical radios compare to Singars, and yes they did get the radios with other communication equipment from the U.S.

I would expect Georgian battle comms to be at very good level, comparable to most NATO members. I'm pretty sure russian troops deployed were had 1-2 generations behind equipment. This of course doesnt meant what Georgian electronic is of much interest to russians - it is pretty standard level.

[eckherl]

I would expect Georgian battle comms to be at very good level, comparable to most NATO members. I'm pretty sure russian troops deployed were had 1-2 generations behind equipment. This of course doesnt meant what Georgian electronic is of much interest to russians - it is pretty standard level.

I will find it interesting to see if and how Russia managed to jam them.

[Grand Danois]

We also have to consider the Georgian capability to conduct BDA over a threat SAG operating OTH would be really limited and the Russians would certainly exploit that.

-DA

Yes, thats what i alluded too. Obviously my convoluted style of writing makes it a bit unclear.

[Chrom]

I will find it interesting to see if and how Russia managed to jam them.

Words russians didnt used much jamming, instead they intercepted comms to they advantage. Many witnessed told what even mobile phones were working without much problem. Some Georgian soldiers told what they units were ordered to surrender through they battle comms by russians (when defeat was already clear).

[eaf-f16]

Captured weapons and booty is a by product of the conflict. Russia has been stripping bases, this serves in preventing future attacks. It would be stupid to destroy everything. Georgian troops have rapidly retreated or deserted, most likely lot of equipment has not been destroyed. Also they will analyse captured equipment to see if they have been modified by western technology. As like you said to want to test them out to see the advantages these systems have. My speculation would be more valid, if I knew exactly what technology was provided by the west. Russia says Israel sold 200 million dollars worth of military goods including drones. For example, if Russia can get hold of some intact drones they will have access to advanced optics, at moment I know they have shot down many.

I already saw a pretty intact Georgian Elbit drone that was shot down over one of the rebels regions laying around in some garage somewhere. The rebels showed it on Al-Jazeera English after the Russians allegedly shot down a Georgian UAV to show that they had shot down some before. If the Israeli drone tech was truly of sensitive nature then it must have been compromised along time ago.

[ASFC]

The reason why I speculated they would destroy most of the weapons they have looted is because of the logistical nightmare of moving them back to Russia-you forget that they entered Georgia post ceasefire to remove Georgias immediate ability to shell S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. They have limited time to do this and will only take equipment back to Russia worth taking back, like comms and drones etc, because the military objective is to remove the threat, and the quickest way would be to just destroy the weapons they don't want.

This isn't a normal conflict where the victors have time to go around collecting war prizes. Russia has barely days in Georgia to remove equipment from Georgian control before the US turns up in country to provide Humanitarian stuff. Notice they could have let the Abkhazians have those missile boats in Poti, but it would have taken too long to transfer them so they just blew them up.

[Chrom]

The reason why I speculated they would destroy most of the weapons they have looted is because of the logistical nightmare of moving them back to Russia-you forget that they entered Georgia post ceasefire to remove Georgias immediate ability to shell S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. They have limited time to do this and will only take equipment back to Russia worth taking back, like comms and drones etc, because the military objective is to remove the threat, and the quickest way would be to just destroy the weapons they don't want.

This isn't a normal conflict where the victors have time to go around collecting war prizes. Russia has barely days in Georgia to remove equipment from Georgian control before the US turns up in country to provide Humanitarian stuff. Notice they could have let the Abkhazians have those missile boats in Poti, but it would have taken too long to transfer them so they just blew them up.

Tanks and other heavy technic still could be evacuated without much problems. In fact, everything worth could be evacuated without THAT much problem. Most trucks should drive back to N.Osetia empty anyway ;O

But partially i agree here - most relative useless stuff will be blown on place. Regarding Georgian "Navy" - russians have 10x as much stuff rusting in ports for give-away than these sunken useless old boats.

[Galrahn]

I don't think those guns could cause significant damage to the Moskva. It makes sense for it to turn away if it caught fire, the fire is more trouble than the coastals.

Russia's Navy may not be sexy, but they are built to fight. A little gun damage is not going to return the BSF flagship back to port, it would have had to take a missile hit or other serious damage to withdraw. I don't think that is what happened here, it sounds like a one sided affair where Georgia got a few shots off, then got outclassed.

[weasel1962]

Deleted

[Feanor]

So it seems that things have finally quieted down. 50 alleged Russian tanks in Gori turned out to be 3 BTR's. Georgian police has returned to Gori and has contorl of the city. Abkhazia took control of the Kodori Gorge, and stopped at that. Russia has denied it's troop presence in Poti (which from what I've heard here seems to be a lie).

From the looks of it the war is over and has confirmed what up to now was only up for discussion, Russia is back. The problem of course is that while the bipolar and even monopolar world of the recent past is coming to an end. While Russia is opposing the existing super power, the USA, many other are rising fast. The issue of US aid to Georgia is an interesting one, but even more interesting is the NATO paradox. After this war (which clearly demonstrated that Georgia has unresolved and very dangerours territorial issues) NATO membership may turn out to be more likely then before. NATO Secretary said publicly that Georgia will be accepted into NATO.

[roberto]

Peace plan is exactly what i wrote in previous thread. It is called enforced peace. Russia can strike at will from advantegous position. this situation will discredit the governmnet enough to collapse in long term by itself and Russia will not have burden of full occupation. Just watching from the top.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/world/europe/14document.html?hp
Peace Plan Offers Russia a Rationale to Advance

TBILISI, Georgia — It was nearly 2 a.m. on Wednesday when President Nicolas Sarkozy of France announced he had accomplished what seemed virtually impossible: Persuading the leaders of Georgia and Russia to agree to a set of principles that would stop the war.


Handshakes and congratulations were offered all around. But by the time the sun was up, Russian tanks were advancing again, this time taking positions around the strategically important city of Gori, in central Georgia.

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

By mid-morning, European officials were warning of the risks of appeasing Russian aggression, while Georgian officials lamented the West’s weak leverage.

“I’m talking about the impotence and inability of both Europe and the United States to be unified and to exert leverage, and to comprehend the level of the threat,” said the senior Georgian official, who had sat in on the talks between Mr. Sarkozy and Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

The senior Georgian official later made a copy of the deal available to The New York Times with what he said were notes marking changes the Georgians had asked for but failed to attain.

Of gripping importance to the Georgian government now, Western diplomats and Georgian officials said, is whether the agreement gave the Russians room to interpret the occupation of Gori and a zone around the city as agreed upon in the cease-fire, thus allowing them to control the main east-west road through the country, isolating the capital, Tbilisi, from the Black Sea coast and cutting off important supply routes.

In response, the United States began sending troops to Georgia to oversee aid to the capital on Wednesday.

France brokered the deal as the country holding the rotating presidency of the European Union. Bernard Kouchner, the foreign minister of France, visited Tbilisi and left with a four-point cease-fire plan.

The conditions were: no use of force; cease hostilities; open humanitarian corridors in the conflict areas; and Georgian and Russian troops withdraw to their pre-war positions.

In meetings in Moscow, the Russians insisted on two additional points, the Georgian official said, and Mr. Sarkozy carried these demands to Georgia, landing shortly after 10 p.m. Wednesday and driving straight to the Parliament building to meet Mr. Saakashvili.

Negotiating from a position of strength, the Russians demanded the fifth point, allowing their troops to act in what was termed a peacekeeping role, even outside the boundaries of the separatist enclaves where the war began, with an understanding that later an international agreement might obviate this need.

The vague language of the fifth point allows Russian peacekeepers to “implement additional security measures” while awaiting an international monitoring mechanism.

The Georgians asked that a timeline be included in the language for these loosely defined Russian peacekeeping operations, but the Georgian official said Mr. Sarkozy’s response was that without an agreement, a Russian tank assault on the capital could ensue: “He was saying it’s a difficult situation. He said, ‘Their tanks are 40 kilometers from Tbilisi. This is where we are.’ ”

Mr. Sarkozy then tried to call Dmitri A. Medvedev, the Russian president, to amend the point with a timeline. The adviser, who was present, said the Russians did not take the call for two hours. When the French president got through, the proposal was rejected.

In the sixth point, both sides agreed that the status of the contested separatist regions would be pursued the future.

A senior American official familiar with the talks also said that the Russians insisted on the fifth point about the so-called additional security measures. “I think it was presented as, ‘You need to sign on to this,’ ” the official said of Mr. Sarkozy’s appeal to the Georgians. “My guess is it was presented as, ‘This is the best I can get.’ ”

French and Russian officials were unavailable to comment on the Georgian official’s account of how the negotiations unfolded.

Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Saakashvili announced the agreement around 2 a.m., and Russian tanks and troops moved toward Gori soon afterward. The Russians cited the fifth provision, saying they had identified a threat to the local population that justified their troops assuming a peacekeeping role in the city.

A spokesman for President Medvedev said they took up positions around the town to protect locals from South Ossetians bent on revenge against ethnic Georgians for what Russia says was Georgia’s wholesale destruction of Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, and its inflicting of civilian casualties. It said it was also there to dispose of weapons left unattended by Georgian troops.

And, in an apparent swipe at the retreat of the Georgian army, which received supplies from the United States, the Russian general commanding the town, Vyachislav N. Borisov, noted in particular the risk if looters seized what he said were thousands of abandoned, American-made assault rifles at a military base. General Borisov spoke at an impromptu news conference on a road congested with Russian military trucks and armored vehicles outside Gori on Wednesday evening.

Russian troops have the right to take any actions necessary to prevent hostilities, said a Kremlin spokesman, Alexei Pavlov, including inside Georgia.

He said the fifth point of the agreement included this right but added that Russia would consider such actions justified “without any agreement at all.”

One senior American official said the fifth point in the cease-fire agreement could lead to further Russian advances, including feints on Tbilisi, to create panic and undermine support for Mr. Saakashvili. This official said international acceptance of Russians as peacekeepers in Georgia “is absurd at this point.”

[JohanGrön]

Most trucks should drive back to N.Osetia empty anyway ;O

Not so sure about that, there seems to be a lot of looting going on by russian and ossetian troops in Georgia. Most trucks will be filled with whatever stuff from civilian residences on their way back.

[Feanor]

I have not heard any reports of looting. Anyways the rumor of Russian forces taking Gori was overturned by both sides. Here's an interesting collection of wartime photos. A couple of the shots show some gruesome injuries, view at your own discretion.

http://lsd-25.ru/2008/08/14/voyna-v-yuzhnoy-osetii-89-fotografiy-arkadiya-babchenko/

EDIT: Rapid update. Russian troops have indeed taken over the large Georgian Army storage in Senaki where the Georgians abandoned a supply of battle ready weapons. The weapons are being "evacuated" from the conflict zone. Well Chrom looks like we know what the trucks heading back north are full of. ;)

[mickk]

A particularly disgusting dirty war.

I Witnessed several Civilians being killed by either Russian or Osettian? sniper forces on the Greek news Channel yesterday. Was the full unedited version of an earlier report.

Murdering old women in cars attempting to flee to safety wont be forgotten in a hurry. Pick on someone your own size you bastards.

Now I understand why the Afghanistanis slit so many Russian throats.

[mickk]

Putting aside emotions, this is a great shot.

http://lsd-25.ru/img/navoine-ru_IMG_9659.jpg

(not graphic)

[Chrom]

Just reviewing some of the potential implications of US supplying aid to Georgia.

(i) Could it push Russia to occupy Georgia and install a puppet regime?

No. Really occupying Georgia - last thing Russia want. Right now there is no pro-russian opposition in Georgia (and there was no for a long time), and "puppet" regime will require much too much efforts to maintain.

(ii) Could it push Russia to supply aid via Iran to Iraqi insurgents?
No. If you havent noticed, US involvement in Georgian affairs before these events were comparable to US involvement in Afganistan in 80x. US supply, arm, train, pay Georgian army & government for a long time already. Doing more is possible, but will require direct official US vs Russian soldier stand-off. Not very likely...
Remember, just placing military base in Georgia couldnt be US aim. It could be much easer done before these events - now it is substantially harder.

(iii) Could it push Russia to supply aid to Taliban? <-- unlikely though...
Nah. Of course no. If russian want to do something like that - they have Iran and Syria. There are also a lot of other places where russians can return a favor.

(iv) Will this have an implication on Russo-Sino ties...
Not in the grand scale. Russia-China geopolitically already friendly as is.


The next US president will inherit strained relations with Russia and have an interesting situation to deal with.
Yup. He will have both roads open - admitting Georgian crimes while blaming previous administration, or conflicting with Russia, "old" part of EU, China. But i think in any case speeches will considerable calm down. Not what they are too hot as is - during Chechnya times there were far worse examples.

Interesting to review what kind of military aid the US is/will be supplying. Stingers will be a major boost (reminiscent of what it did in Afghanistan).
Avengers are another item that could play a significant role with its added mobility.
Georgians generally didnt experienced lack of advanced MANPADS. So dont expect Stingers change anything.

Javelins/AT4s may have a significant impact too on Russian tank movements. Sending Abrams could be a major surprise.
Same here. Georgians had quite adequate ATGM's, Javelings woulnt change much. Abrams wouldnt change outcome even slightly - by all accounts most tanks were destroyed with RPG/ATGM fire, some with artillery and aviation.


I will stress it - Georgian army was very good equipped.

[Chrom]

Not so sure about that, there seems to be a lot of looting going on by russian and ossetian troops in Georgia. Most trucks will be filled with whatever stuff from civilian residences on their way back.

Regular troops will definitely not engage in that. Even non-regular is very unlikely. Russians now try to win propaganda war, they will do all they could to prevent such damaging examples.

That said, now the place should be flooded with all kind of criminals from all around ex-CIS.

[Sampanviking]

Just reviewing some of the potential implications of US supplying aid to Georgia.

(i) Could it push Russia to occupy Georgia and install a puppet regime?
(ii) Could it push Russia to supply aid via Iran to Iraqi insurgents?
(iii) Could it push Russia to supply aid to Taliban? <-- unlikely though...
(iv) Will this have an implication on Russo-Sino ties...

The next US president will inherit strained relations with Russia and have an interesting situation to deal with.

Interesting to review what kind of military aid the US is/will be supplying. Stingers will be a major boost (reminiscent of what it did in Afghanistan).
Avengers are another item that could play a significant role with its added mobility.
Javelins/AT4s may have a significant impact too on Russian tank movements. Sending Abrams could be a major surprise.


China and Russia are in the same security organisation the SCO and it is interesting just how much this has not been mentioned. China and Russia both share the same strategic objectives and Chinese support for the Russian action is a given. Indeed you only need see the reaction to Hu meeting Putin at Beijing on Friday to know that there is real warmth it that friendship and that Hu was fully aware of the crisis that was by then fully developed.

[Pro'forma]

Most of us think russia federation must be much, much more active
processing ongoing peace wordwide.

And become voluntary and on its own initiative.
Not to be too shy, or go back in time or processing negativity.

[mickk]

What [abusive word removed. Alternative = bothers] me the most, is that we know Putin is in de facto control. OK I can live with that, its Russia, they do things differently.

But there is another option open to them. That is to stop this half in half out attitude to capitalism. Stop using military aggression to restore national pride, bulid a [abusive word removed] dam or something, grow some wheat for gods sake.

Stop being so paranoid, just trade and concerntrate on local econimic prosperity, build an underground pipeline, buiold the worlds most advanced subterrainian infastructure.

Killing old people doesnt achieve anything. Its clear from the media that there was no one under 30 left to attack, they had all fled by the time you set the dogs loose.

Its just a feeble attempt to restore lost pride after Afghanistan. Afghanistan is over, move on, you cant get back the past.

No one wants to invade Russia, WW2 wont be repeated, youre Sovreignty is not at stake. Russia could make more money through Tourism than by any other means.

National pride can be restored through tourism and other means.

Stop the Nationalsit chest thumping, its not required, wont achieve anything other than misery.

Vlad cant let go until he has some kind of Military victory. I used to think he was smarter than that but now I fear hes just a madman.

If you want a fight, pick on China and see how far you get.


mickk try to keep emotions out of the thread & while you are doing that try not use abusive words found in your 'this' post.

-SABRE

[Chrom]

What **** me the most, is that we know Putin is in de facto control. OK I can live with that, its Russia, they do things differently.

But there is another option open to them. That is to stop this half in half out attitude to capitalism. Stop using military aggression to restore national pride, bulid a ****** dam or something, grow some wheat for gods sake.



Stop being so paranoid, just trade and concerntrate on local econimic prosperity, build an underground pipeline, buiold the worlds most advanced subterrainian infastructure.

Killing old people doesnt achieve anything. Its clear from the media that there was no one under 30 left to attack, they had all fled by the time you set the dogs loose.

Its just a feeble attempt to restore lost pride after Afghanistan. Afghanistan is over, move on, you cant get back the past.

No one wants to invade Russia, WW2 wont be repeated, youre Sovreignty is not at stake. Russia could make more money through Tourism than by any other means.

National pride can be restored through tourism and other means.

Stop the Nationalsit chest thumping, its not required, wont achieve anything other than misery.

Vlad cant let go until he has some kind of Military victory. I used to think he was smarter than that but now I fear hes just a madman.

If you want a fight, pick on China and see how far you get.
Please, let propaganda out of this thread.


Please leave the onliners, which do not contribute to the discussion, out of this thread. If anyone has a problem with another member please contact the moderators.

-SABRE

[mickk]

Propaganda?

Geeze, Im giving my opinion based on fact.

Propaganda is fictional opinion given by a participating side, largely based on political objecitives, neither apply to me.

[steppewolf]

maybe somebody can explain to me a thing:

I remember that is an tunnel trough mountain to access from Russia to South Ossetia. Why the georgians didnt blow up that tunnel? I figure that this will complicated a lot russian logistic in south ossetian territory