North Korea VS South Korea

[yutong chen]

Who would win this war?

[Majin-Vegeta]

umm...for sure america would come to the rescue..but that would take a while, China might support and Japan..it seems it would be like 3 - 4 countries jumping one :S not fair lol.

but i dont think there should be a war unless america starts their laser nosing in system to try to get into the fight :P

[Aussie Digger]

No one. It would be an absolute massacre and end up in another useless stalement that would force everyone to the negoiating table. Where they should just go first. But politicians seem to be the one profession that never learns a damn thing.

[elkaboingo]

depends. if neither country get outside support, then NK will overun SK.

if you put in all the politics, USA would fund SK and give them weapons, turning the battle the other way.

[Sodais]

Yea without any support.....
I think South korea, would win this one, that is if the U.S dont jump in.

Military Korea, South
Military branches:
Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, National Maritime Police (Coast Guard)
Military manpower - military age:
18 years of age (2003 est.)
Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 14,252,851 (2003 est.)
Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 8,994,941 (2003 est.)
Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 345,331 (2003 est.)
Military expenditures - dollar figure:
$13,094.3 million (FY02)
Military expenditures - percent of GDP:
2.8% (FY02)

Military Korea, North
Military branches:
Korean People's Army (includes Army, Navy, Air Force), Civil Security Forces
Military manpower - military age:
18 years of age (2003 est.)
Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 6,103,615 (2003 est.)
Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 3,654,223 (2003 est.)
Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 180,875 (2003 est.)
Military expenditures - dollar figure:
$5,217.4 million (FY02)
Military expenditures - percent of GDP:
33.9% (FY02)

Check out the whole Info about Both of these countrys at

North korea:
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/kn.html
South korea:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ks.html

[Snakecharmer]

South Korea hands down, however South Korea would take some serious hurt from all of the North's arty, they got a crapload of long range heavy guns. However, if North Korea knew they were gonna lose they would prolly just nuke the south.

[yutong chen]

I don't think you can avoid it, North Korea have no choice but to start a war, otherwise, their economy is going to 0%.

[gf0012-aust]

China will have a major impact on this. I would imagine that China would be most unhappy if North Korea destablised the region. North Korea would lose the support of the only country that can influence a normalised re-entry back into east asia.

Any North Korean use of nukes would see a massive response and that would be outside of Chinas control.

The US clearly recognises that China is critical to managing the North Korean dilemna

[Snakecharmer]

agreed. China plays a very significant role in North Korean affairs

[Mujahid]

well I think its a no win situation.

South Korea would suffer massiv damage even if the north koreans didnt use nuclear weapons.

[Su_37]

Well N.Korea has 4k Arlitry guns , which can pund 8000 k shells per min , i don;t think any force can stand in such a heavy bombarment.

[Winter]

Well N.Korea has 4k Arlitry guns , which can pund 8000 k shells per min , i don;t think any force can stand in such a heavy bombarment.

Perhaps the US 2nd Infantry Division just withdrawn out of range? Of course it will be bloody...And horrific...but I still don't think an opening artillery barrage of even that magnitude could literally pummel South Korea into submission. I'm sure the ROK have planned around this.

[gf0012-aust]

The Sth Koreans and the US always acknowledged that the opening artillery barrage would result in massive losses, thats the reason why battlefield nukes are still part of the response mix.

[xyhumanlee]

I think china will desert king'sfamiles because of the constant trouble which north korea caused,but she will not desert north korea,because a united korea will be too powerful to controll.

[sealsuby]

I think china will desert king'sfamiles because of the constant trouble which north korea caused,but she will not desert north korea,because a united korea will be too powerful to controll.
I think china will absolutely take the chance to control the N Korean government again because of the significant impact on it.And on the base of the security of chinese north eastern part,she will prevent the US and Japanese being too close to Yalu river. :cop
As a chinese,I can not bear US stands on the land where PLA fighted and sacrificed 50 years ago.


血铸中华!

[gf0012-aust]

I think china will desert king'sfamiles because of the constant trouble which north korea caused,but she will not desert north korea,because a united korea will be too powerful to controll.
I think china will absolutely take the chance to control the N Korean government again because of the significant impact on it.And on the base of the security of chinese north eastern part,she will prevent the US and Japanese being too close to Yalu river. :cop
As a chinese,I can not bear US stands on the land where PLA fighted and sacrificed 50 years ago.


血铸中华!

I would argue that Chinas patience with North Korea is somewhat "stretched". China is already experiencing some problems with North Koreans trying to cross over as they are still in famine. It is not something that China wants to continue. A belligerent North Korea will put back Chinas own development, it will also create a definite and distasteful political and military nexus point.

I don't see China and the US being engaged in Military action. There is far more to this than having a military outcome. A military outcome would turn North Korea into a glass plate, and unfortunately radiation doesn't stay within borders. China will contain North Korea as much as she can because North Korea jeopardises Chinas own 10 year plan for economic development.

A military engagement on the Yalu - or wherever else is not going to happen. Not if China and the US can avoid it. This is not 1950 anymore. The world has changed considerably, both China and the US are inextricably entwined economically - war will damage that.

This gets down to economics - not warfighting postures.

[sealsuby]

I think china will desert king'sfamiles because of the constant trouble which north korea caused,but she will not desert north korea,because a united korea will be too powerful to controll.
I think china will absolutely take the chance to control the N Korean government again because of the significant impact on it.And on the base of the security of chinese north eastern part,she will prevent the US and Japanese being too close to Yalu river. :cop
As a chinese,I can not bear US stands on the land where PLA fighted and sacrificed 50 years ago.


血铸中华!

I would argue that Chinas patience with North Korea is somewhat "stretched". China is already experiencing some problems with North Koreans trying to cross over as they are still in famine. It is not something that China wants to continue. A belligerent North Korea will put back Chinas own development, it will also create a definite and distasteful political and military nexus point.

I don't see China and the US being engaged in Military action. There is far more to this than having a military outcome. A military outcome would turn North Korea into a glass plate, and unfortunately radiation doesn't stay within borders. China will contain North Korea as much as she can because North Korea jeopardises Chinas own 10 year plan for economic development.

A military engagement on the Yalu - or wherever else is not going to happen. Not if China and the US can avoid it. This is not 1950 anymore. The world has changed considerably, both China and the US are inextricably entwined economically - war will damage that.

This gets down to economics - not warfighting postures.

It is very wise of you to say so.Maybe I was too excited last night.It is so obvious that the NK`s crisis would slow or even disturb China`s economic development.It`s something that Chinese leaders must consider.But as you know,the NK is very very important to China.Every chinese can not bear that the NK`s government be overflown by the US.Of course,it is2004 now.But as chinese believed,they will prevent Taiwan from gaining independence at all cost(including economic development).Also, they can not lose the NK (It`s considered the eastern gate of China from 1949)as the friendship of Pakistan.

I have no idea what China`government will do when the war really break out in Korean.But I belive Chinese will not stand by.

[gf0012-aust]

It is very wise of you to say so.Maybe I was too excited last night.It is so obvious that the NK`s crisis would slow or even disturb China`s economic development.It`s something that Chinese leaders must consider.But as you know,the NK is very very important to China.Every chinese can not bear that the NK`s government be overflown by the US.Of course,it is2004 now.But as chinese believed,they will prevent Taiwan from gaining independence at all cost(including economic development).Also, they can not lose the NK (It`s considered the eastern gate of China from 1949)as the friendship of Pakistan.

I have no idea what China`government will do when the war really break out in Korean.But I belive Chinese will not stand by.


Yes, Chinas committment to North Korea is identical to the USA's committment to South Korea. I think that in itself is one of the greater reasons as to why both powers will resist a slide into conflict. Chinas greatest strength is patience. If they remember that, then theTaiwanese problem will eventually resolve itself. Taiwan has already indicated that it will reunify, perhaps that needs to be after the last of the Kuomintang leaders have passed on . But patience is a virtue. Like Macau and Hong Kong, Taiwan is a better solution if it comes across intact.

China is critical to the US negotiating a balanced outcome with North Korea.

[sealsuby]

Yes, Chinas committment to North Korea is identical to the USA's committment to South Korea. I think that in itself is one of the greater reasons as to why both powers will resist a slide into conflict. Chinas greatest strength is patience. If they remember that, then theTaiwanese problem will eventually resolve itself. Taiwan has already indicated that it will reunify, perhaps that needs to be after the last of the Kuomintang leaders have passed on . But patience is a virtue. Like Macau and Hong Kong, Taiwan is a better solution if it comes across intact.

China is critical to the US negotiating a balanced outcome with North Korea.
In my opinion,Kuomintang(KMT)has faded and lost the popularity both in Mainland and in Taiwan.It betrayed the principal of "one China"recently.It is very sad.

[gf0012-aust]

Yes, Chinas committment to North Korea is identical to the USA's committment to South Korea. I think that in itself is one of the greater reasons as to why both powers will resist a slide into conflict. Chinas greatest strength is patience. If they remember that, then theTaiwanese problem will eventually resolve itself. Taiwan has already indicated that it will reunify, perhaps that needs to be after the last of the Kuomintang leaders have passed on . But patience is a virtue. Like Macau and Hong Kong, Taiwan is a better solution if it comes across intact.

China is critical to the US negotiating a balanced outcome with North Korea.
In my opinion,Kuomintang(KMT)has faded and lost the popularity both in Mainland and in Taiwan.It betrayed the principal of "one China"recently.It is very sad.

The old members of the Kuomintang are the last of a previous event in history. Patience and balanced judgment are the only ways for this to be resolved.

China has exercised patience before - it needs to do that now.

[sealsuby]

[quote]

The old members of the Kuomintang are the last of a previous event in history. Patience and balanced judgment are the only ways for this to be resolved.

China has exercised patience before - it needs to do that now.


:idea: Chinese believe that the US , Japan and other western countries will never give enough chance to China to develope or become another power even super power.It is not beneficial for them. China need patience,because there are chinese in Taiwan.But the patience is based on owing power and strength.Also,recapturing Taiwan will make China more powerful and make the PLAN more active.
Fankly,I can not exactly explain why Chinese insist on the view that Taiwan is absolutely one part of China and must be recaptured by the central government.I think maybe the affection of the glorious and dam history of the so-called "The Middle Kingdom"is so powerful and force or motivate every chinese to fight for her integrity,her glory,her independence and her rising above.
Maybe I can give you a very famous poem.But I am rather sorry that I can not translate it into English because my poor English. :o
Maybe you can call someone for help:: :alian :alian :alian :help
满江红
怒发冲冠
凭栏处
潇潇雨歇
抬望眼
仰天长啸
壮怀激烈
三十功名尘与土
八千里路云和月
莫等闲
白了少年头
靖康耻
犹未雪
臣子恨
何时了
驾长车
踏破贺兰山缺
壮士饥餐胡虏肉
笑谈喝饮匈奴血
待从头
收拾旧山河
朝天阙。 :D :D :D

[eckherl]

With China`s economy booming right now with the help of American business`s they will prevent North Korea from trying anything that crazy, plus it would benefit China to stay on good terms with South Korea due to their input and money being pumped into China. North Korea has a impressive military with the exception of it`s outdated equipment, the kings on that battlefield will be artillery and the common ground pounder and with the aide of America South Korea will win, it will be bloody. China cannot afford this right now due to the far more advanced weapon systems that America has. Japan will be thrown into this also because they have no choice, it is bad enough that they have China close by, they do not need a very hostile Korea in the same area. Japan has a very impressive navy and air force and with North Korea`s missle test launches close by they are rethinking their countries pacifistic constitution which is bad for China and they have expressed this with uncle Kim Jong Ill.

[Ranari]

(Old resurrected post, I know)

If anyone is going to suffer from the onslaught of North Korean artillery, it's going to be the civilian population of Seoul. Field Marshall Erich von Manstein reported in his memoirs that the Soviet artillery divisions, first seen in 1943, laid down the most ferocious artillery barages prior to engagements - the most intense the Wehrmacht had ever seen, and yet these were only divisions of approximately 1000 guns. If North Korean opens up with the firepower of several times that on Seoul, I wouldn't be surprised if the casualty rating would be upwards of several hundred thousand, even a million or more, with a city boasting a civilian population of over 10 million.

Most of South Korea's military, however, is scattered north of the city, and I'd imagine it would not take long for them to respond. Even if Seoul is fatally bombarded, I doubt it would cripple South Korea's ability to fight on, and I'm sure they've taken to great lengths to ensure their fighting capability in the event of an artillery barrage in this magnitude.

But I doubt an event like this will ever happen. For one, China won't allow it. Not only do they NOT want the United States any closer and influential than we already are, the last thing they want, at least in my opinion, is Japan rearming. Japan has the capability, the deep water ports, the economy, and the cultural background to support a very strong military (as it has done in the past), and if North Korea pushes their buttons one too many times, you can be darned sure they'll do so.

So long as little Kim Jong is comfortably at the top of the food chain in his country, however, I don't think he'll do too much to risk losing it. While a maniac, I don't think he's that stupid. He knows he can't fighting a prolonged war with any neighboring country. He also darned well knows for sure that, in the event they had to do so, China could also remove him from office as well. :)

[eckherl]

I totally agree about the artillery, the North Koreans use Soviet style tactics and even the Germans dreaded that during WW2. It will really be interesting in the next couple of years to see how Japan starts building up it`s military arsenal, It`s my opinion that the U.S government is all smiles on that one.

[Firehorse]

``the Chinese have been busy laying the political, diplomatic and historical foundations for an occupation and perhaps even an annexation of North Korea.''
`Puppet State'
``China wants to develop its landlocked, economically backward northeast by gaining access to nearby North Korean seaports,'' Stafford writes. ``China could achieve all this by establishing a puppet state or by fully incorporating North Korea into China proper.''
Not all experts see an advantage for the first country to move into North Korea if it collapses, especially after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
``The reconstruction will be a mess, and a lot of people will get hurt even under the best possible scenarios, so everybody who will be in charge of post-Kim Korea is likely to be discredited,'' Andrei Lankov, North Korea specialist at Seoul's Kookmin University, wrote Jan. 8 on the blog OneFreeKorea in response to the Stafford article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=act8mDkXaQtQ&refer=home


Regardless, the PRC will stand to win in the long run if such a move is justified. for one thing, and in the long run, preventing/delaying the emergence of powerful unified Korea will serve well china's geopolitical interests, for all intents and purposes. Meanwhile,

Seoul 'may shut N Korea ministry'
South Korea's incoming president wants to scrap a ministry handling relations with North Korea, his aides say.
Lee Myung-bak, who takes office on 25 February, will merge the Unification Ministry with the Foreign Ministry.

Four other ministries are being downgraded as part of what he says is a pledge to streamline government.

But Mr Lee advocates a tougher stance towards North Korea and the Unification Ministry has been accused of being too soft on Pyongyang in the past.

'Maintaining consistency'

At the moment, inter-Korean relations are dealt with by the Unification Ministry, while the Foreign Ministry handles negotiations on the nuclear issue.

The two ministries are known to have disagreed in the past, with the Foreign Ministry preferring a tougher line.

"In light of inter-Korean relations becoming closer day by day, unification policy cannot be a monopoly of a certain ministry," Lee Kyung-sook, chief of Mr Lee's transition team, told journalists.

"All government agencies and ministries should make efforts to improve inter-Korean relations but consistency should be maintained in the framework of foreign policy," he said.

South Korea's current leader, Roh Moo-hyun, has pursued a policy of economic engagement with the North.

But Mr Lee says he wants greater concessions from the North, linking the provision of economic packages to progress on the nuclear issue.

Talks on denuclearisation are currently stalled, after North Korea missed a year-end deadline to fully disclose all of its nuclear activities.

The planned closure is unlikely to please North Korea, where state-run media outlets have still not acknowledged Mr Lee's election win.

The proposal has to clear parliament and liberal party lawmakers say they will fight it.

The other ministries to be closed or merged are maritime affairs, information, science and gender equality, at a loss of around 7,000 jobs.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/7191107.stm

[Chrom]

It is very wise of you to say so.Maybe I was too excited last night.It is so obvious that the NK`s crisis would slow or even disturb China`s economic development. by. This will not affect chinese economic even the slightest. Some border regions might have slight problem due to NK refugees (althou not much), but China as general could only benefit from inflow of highly educated NK people, agreed to work for very low (even by Chinese standards) wage. Compare 1.3b Chinese population vs 23m of NK population... And you'll see how much problems will be NK refugees for China.

[F-15 Eagle]

Hey guys what would happen if North and South Korea sign a peace treaty, would that affect their defense spending at all? And what about the 25,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, will they stay in Korea?

[mic of orion]

Who would win this war?

South Korea with a relative ease, although in opening salvos Seoul might get hit by North Korean artillery. South Koreans would try to push North Korean Artillery out of the range, North Korean troops might start t surrender in large numbers if they see first opportunity.

I can safely say South Korea would win with relative ease despite North Korean hardware and personal superiority.

South Koreans have technological superiority as well as training and quality of personal, I'd say North Korea would fall with in 5-6 months of war.

Unless North Korea is helped by China, but I do not see that happening. As long US stays out of the conflict I see no reason for China to get involved.

[swerve]

``the Chinese have been busy laying the political, diplomatic and historical foundations for an occupation and perhaps even an annexation of North Korea.''
`Puppet State'
``China wants to develop its landlocked, economically backward northeast by gaining access to nearby North Korean seaports,'' Stafford writes. ``China could achieve all this by establishing a puppet state or by fully incorporating North Korea into China proper.''
Not all experts see an advantage for the first country to move into North Korea if it collapses, especially after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
``The reconstruction will be a mess, and a lot of people will get hurt even under the best possible scenarios, so everybody who will be in charge of post-Kim Korea is likely to be discredited,'' Andrei Lankov, North Korea specialist at Seoul's Kookmin University, wrote Jan. 8 on the blog OneFreeKorea in response to the Stafford article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...QtQ&refer=home

Regardless, the PRC will stand to win in the long run if such a move is justified. for one thing, and in the long run, preventing/delaying the emergence of powerful unified Korea will serve well china's geopolitical interests, for all intents and purposes. Meanwhile,

I cannot imagine China wanting to incorporate, or even occupy, North Korea. The political consequences would be immensely damaging, the financial cost considerable, it would gain the enmity of S. Korea, with which is currently friendly - and for what? Access to ports does not need rule. Switzerland has unfettered access to the port of Rotterdam. China can get improved access to ports by spending money to improve transport links & ports in North Korea. Kim Jong-Il & his cronies would doubtless be happy to co-operate, in return for Chinese money.

Also, the North-East of China is not economically backward. It is (relatively) depressed, which is not the same thing. Thirty years ago, it was the richest & most industrialised part of China, & it still has a GDP per head, life expectancy, urbanisation rate, literacy, etc at or above the national average. What has changed is that it is in relative (compared to other parts of China) decline, & now has significant unemployment & pockets of new poverty as a result of the decline of some of its old heavy industries.

[eckherl]

Hey guys what would happen if North and South Korea sign a peace treaty, would that affect their defense spending at all? And what about the 25,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, will they stay in Korea?

No it would not, even though it would go from a truce to a official peace treaty there will be a major mistrust for uncle Kim, let his past record stand.

The U.S would like nothing more than to pull our ground troops out, they are no longer needed. All the ROK government needs to say is leave and we will be gone.

[Incognito129]

I cannot imagine China wanting to incorporate, or even occupy, North Korea. The political consequences would be immensely damaging, the financial cost considerable, it would gain the enmity of S. Korea, with which is currently friendly - and for what? Access to ports does not need rule. Switzerland has unfettered access to the port of Rotterdam. China can get improved access to ports by spending money to improve transport links & ports in North Korea. Kim Jong-Il & his cronies would doubtless be happy to co-operate, in return for Chinese money.

Also, the North-East of China is not economically backward. It is (relatively) depressed, which is not the same thing. Thirty years ago, it was the richest & most industrialised part of China, & it still has a GDP per head, life expectancy, urbanisation rate, literacy, etc at or above the national average. What has changed is that it is in relative (compared to other parts of China) decline, & now has significant unemployment & pockets of new poverty as a result of the decline of some of its old heavy industries.

Well back then it was called Manchuria. I think this is where the movie Manchurian candidate came from, due to Japan's false flag attack on them.

What is not said behind the scenes is the enormous leverage NK has over China. The one thing China cannot have is war, an excuse for the US military to intervene in the region. Right now the top echelon is itching for an excuse to wipe out the chinese military, and an NK provocation will give them the political leverage to do so. Im guessing that one of the reasons the North Korean regime is not willing to pursue economic reform like the Chinese is the leverage gained on them geopolitically.

Although the S.K. c&c is lacking, its ground forces are nevertheless one of the strongest in Asia. They have an enormous amount of experience from the Korean war and Vietnam war. Although NK artillery will pretty much wipe out Seoul, they will eventually get crushed.

If it comes down to war, it will be China + NK, Sk + US. Japan's ground troops are not the strongest by any stretch of the imagination, and with little offensive capability it rules out alot of Japanese involvement.

[swerve]

...
If it comes down to war, it will be China + NK, Sk + US. Japan's ground troops are not the strongest by any stretch of the imagination, and with little offensive capability it rules out alot of Japanese involvement.

Why China? What possible reason could China have for joining in Kim Jong-Ils insane adventures? I can imagine China occupying border areas ("to restore order") after N. Korea is defeated but before S. Korean forces reach the far north, but clearly signalling as they do so that they do not wish to fight either the USA or S. Korea.

As you yourself point out, China does not want a war. S. Korea is a much better friend to China than N. Korea is, & a good & valued trading partner. Why support a regime you loathe, an expensive embarrassment, against an economically valuable country which you're on good terms with? The leverage N. Korea has is the threat to collapse, which it uses to extort Chinese aid, & the threat to to start a bloody & expensive (to China) war. If N. Korea actually did either, it would lose that leverage, & with it all Chinese support for its government.

China does not want US troops on its border, & does not want a powerful Korea next door. But a lightly armed united Korea with no US troops would be nice.

As for Japan: it could (& probably would) make an immense contribution to South Koreas war effort by actively defending its own airspace & waters, & thereby making S. Koreas resupply routes safe, & providing a secure base for US forces.

[Incognito129]

Why China? What possible reason could China have for joining in Kim Jong-Ils insane adventures? I can imagine China occupying border areas ("to restore order") after N. Korea is defeated but before S. Korean forces reach the far north, but clearly signalling as they do so that they do not wish to fight either the USA or S. Korea.

As you yourself point out, China does not want a war. S. Korea is a much better friend to China than N. Korea is, & a good & valued trading partner. Why support a regime you loathe, an expensive embarrassment, against an economically valuable country which you're on good terms with? The leverage N. Korea has is the threat to collapse, which it uses to extort Chinese aid, & the threat to to start a bloody & expensive (to China) war. If N. Korea actually did either, it would lose that leverage, & with it all Chinese support for its government.

China does not want US troops on its border, & does not want a powerful Korea next door. But a lightly armed united Korea with no US troops would be nice.

As for Japan: it could (& probably would) make an immense contribution to South Koreas war effort by actively defending its own airspace & waters, & thereby making S. Koreas resupply routes safe, & providing a secure base for US forces.

US echelon will use it as an excuse to destroy and slowdown the growth of the chinese military. It doesn't matter if China wants to join or not, it will have to respond knowing US intentions. They have already repeatedly said they will send troops in the case of a 2nd Korean war, and recently for that matter.

Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital.

Ok your perspective is kind of skewed regarding Asian politics, atleast from my POV. I doubt China loathes N.K. The economic value of either country is irrevelant.

You keep mentioning things that are completely irrevelant and to a degree childish.

This is the only important fact. US can control China today, but it needs political support. In this 21st century you cannot simply use propaganda and then start a war. What US commanders are desperately seeking is just that, a way in. With massive amounts of exported Russian technology to China, its giving China a way to modernize their military which the commanders here are growing increasingly wary of.

[hallo84]

US echelon will use it as an excuse to destroy and slowdown the growth of the chinese military. It doesn't matter if China wants to join or not, it will have to respond knowing US intentions. They have already repeatedly said they will send troops in the case of a 2nd Korean war, and recently for that matter.
You are going to fight PLA on Chinese turf? It'll make Iraq look like a cake walk.

Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital.
Ok... fair enough How much assets do you suppose the US can en mass in the starting stages? Is there any assets in Guam to be able to sustain operations in the short term? Are you just going to charge the DMZ with only units based in SK?

The best PLA units are in position to stage operations in a get go. Supplies are already stored in Sheng Yang MR. 38th GA and 40th GA are the best equiped in PLA and guess where they are based. Plus there isn't a DMZ to charge for PLA. By the time US start breaking through the DMZ, PLA might have already handed them a fait accompli with possiblely a regime change plus de-nuked NK.

Ok your perspective is kind of skewed regarding Asian politics, atleast from my POV. I doubt China loathes N.K. The economic value of either country is irrevelant.
Do you work for the state department or Beijing? Would you like to share something we don't already know?
Until then Chinese POV vis a vis NK is out of your gasp.

Try reading this.
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4255/type,1/
Unless you think you are in a better position to make an analysis of Chinese-NK relations... Please do correct me.


You keep mentioning things that are completely irrevelant and to a degree childish.

This is the only important fact. US can control China today

Childish... need I say more?

[DefConGuru]

I'm surprised this discussion wasn't closed earlier.

[swerve]

US echelon will use it as an excuse to destroy and slowdown the growth of the chinese military. It doesn't matter if China wants to join or not, it will have to respond knowing US intentions. They have already repeatedly said they will send troops in the case of a 2nd Korean war, and recently for that matter.

Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital.

Ok your perspective is kind of skewed regarding Asian politics, atleast from my POV. I doubt China loathes N.K. The economic value of either country is irrevelant.

You keep mentioning things that are completely irrevelant and to a degree childish.

This is the only important fact. US can control China today, but it needs political support. In this 21st century you cannot simply use propaganda and then start a war. What US commanders are desperately seeking is just that, a way in. With massive amounts of exported Russian technology to China, its giving China a way to modernize their military which the commanders here are growing increasingly wary of.

Childish? Oh dear. Perhaps you'd like to reconsider that.

It's clear that you believe in a zero sum world. Sorry pal, it don't work like that. The USA can not gain from a war with China. China might suffer more, but the USA would be grievously harmed. So why do you think the USA would start such a war? Your idea that the US military would attack China in the event of war breaking out between the Koreas* is based on what evidence? Do you envisage the US president ordering US forces to launch an unprovoked attack on China, or US commanders acting on their own initiative? What do you think would be the consequences of such a blatant breach of international law by the USA?

What knowledge or experience of NE Asia & its politics do you have?

Let us consider some of your statements in detail: "Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital." Hmm. So the USA would assume military control of Japan? Really? The Japanese would be told to knuckle under, ground their air force, tie up their ships, & leave it all to Uncle Sam? If not, what do you actually mean?

What "control" do you think the USA can exert on China? What do you mean by control?

Why do you consider economics irrelevant? Have you ever studied history, & the sources of rivalry & hostility between states?

*You state that China would act because it is aware that the USA would act, which clearly implies that you believe that if China did not join the war, the USA would attack it. If not, your premise is false.

Can you point to Chinese statements about their actions in the case of a Korean war which support what you say about their intentions?

[swerve]

I'm surprised this discussion wasn't closed earlier.

It's veered into politics, but only those directly relevant to the main topic, so I don't think it's far enough off course to close. Yet.

But I may have to drag it back on topic soon, despite having helped to derail it. The things we do to ourselves . . . :(

[Firehorse]

I cannot imagine China wanting to incorporate, or even occupy, North Korea. The political consequences would be immensely damaging, the financial cost considerable, it would gain the enmity of S. Korea, with which is currently friendly - and for what? Access to ports does not need rule.

1st they would just occupy it, then have troops indefinetely stationed there, than give NK "authonomy". This process may take many years- and the ROK will be glad to be settled with lesser evil, since they won't have to absorb all the costs associated with "reunification". It's not even comparable with E/W German one- the West Germany was an economic giant of Europe, while S. Korea only recently emerged as one of the "E.Asian tigers", at the end of the East-West Cold War, & under the US security umbrella at that! I would rather compare them with North & South Vietnam- both share common language & culture, but still have many differences going back centuries (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Vietnam#Divided_period_.281528_-_1802.29). There is still an ancient wall separating them!

In 1620 the country was divided with the Trinh Family ruling in the north and the Nguyen in the south. www.freestateofpatrick.com/vietnam


BTW, this map (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/54/Territories_of_Dynasties_in_China.gif) shows China territorial ebbing across her history. IMO, the larger military advantages are outflanking Russia, ROK & Japan by getting direct contol of half of Korean peninsula. BTW, there is already at least 2M (http://www.chinaculturemall.com/Crafts/Article.aspx?id=1473) of ethnic Koreans in China (http://www.google.com/search?rlz=1T4DMUS_enUS232US235&hl=en&q=ethnic+Koreans+in+China&btnG=Google+Search).

[Incognito129]

Childish? Oh dear. Perhaps you'd like to reconsider that.

I dont care if you are offended. You are completely naive to the situation, proof is in what you said.


It's clear that you believe in a zero sum world. Sorry pal, it don't work like that. The USA can not gain from a war with China. China might suffer more, but the USA would be grievously harmed. So why do you think the USA would start such a war? Your idea that the US military would attack China in the event of war breaking out between the Koreas* is based on what evidence? Do you envisage the US president ordering US forces to launch an unprovoked attack on China, or US commanders acting on their own initiative? What do you think would be the consequences of such a blatant breach of international law by the USA?


What do zero sum games have to do with this? Its obvious you are some chinese guy by the way you staunchly state a war with China will hurt the US? I dont think so.

Like I said there are political barriers, but once a 2nd Korean war breaks out it will not be a far reach to eliminate the Chinese threat. Im sure you are concerned and would love to alleviate the fears of China being hurt, but either case the US echelon are dying to attack the Chinese. Look at it this way. 9/11 happened, Al Qaeda was responsible yet we went after Iraq.

What you dont understand is South Korea, apparently has already taken economic steps to unify the country. South Korea will gain control, and since the US is an ally and huge trading partner is gains a valuable ally in the region along with Japan.


What knowledge or experience of NE Asia & its politics do you have?

Let us consider some of your statements in detail: "Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital." Hmm. So the USA would assume military control of Japan? Really? The Japanese would be told to knuckle under, ground their air force, tie up their ships, & leave it all to Uncle Sam? If not, what do you actually mean?


I meant what I wrote. The US military does not rely on others for the protect of supply lines EVER. You being chinese, Im sure you dont understand that. US has never been friendly to countries that hold natural resources that the US requires.


What "control" do you think the USA can exert on China? What do you mean by control?


Military control. We already have economic control.


Why do you consider economics irrelevant? Have you ever studied history, & the sources of rivalry & hostility between states?


The economics of war come after the war, your perceived importance of chinese factories is misplaced when the real money that the US is interested is access to the Chinese market. I think your communist propaganda has gotten to your head, China is not all that powerful.


*You state that China would act because it is aware that the USA would act, which clearly implies that you believe that if China did not join the war, the USA would attack it. If not, your premise is false.

What kind of nonsensical reply is this. I said if China joins the war, we will attack China. Try to use some logic.


Can you point to Chinese statements about their actions in the case of a Korean war which support what you say about their intentions?

Sure, google the north east project. There was also a recent statement saying Chinese troops will be sent into N.K. if it destabilizes.

[Chrom]

What do zero sum games have to do with this? Its obvious you are some chinese guy by the way you staunchly state a war with China will hurt the US? I dont think so.

. Are you trying to tell USA - China war will not hurt USA? Common, get real. USA already had it in Korea and Vietnam wars. I doubt USA will make yet another mistake and begin war against strong opponent. While USA politicans openly state the need to "stop" chinese military and economic development (and that can be only zero-sum game) - still open conflict is not in the USA interests. Becouse the cant win. Simply as that.

[eckherl]

Can we steer this back to South and North Korea going at it toe to toe, lets all pretend that the big boys will just stand back and let this old feud get settled between the two of them. How would south Korea attack North Korea, what kind of equipment will get the job done for them.

[Firehorse]

ROK will not attack NK in the present conditions- enough Korean blood been spilled already! In the future, both Koreas & China will have different order of battle, so, IMO, it's futile to play these war games now. I only expect China &/or ROK militaries crossing NK borders in a police-type operation to gain geoplitical/economic/strategic advantages. For wargaming, I would rather start comparing combined NK & PRC militaries with ROK capability. Without even going in depth, I can already say that the ROK should be thinking about preserving its assets and don't get drawn in- otherwise, Koreans will be killing each other & Chinese again, like 55 years ago!

[swerve]

... Its obvious you are some chinese guy by the way you staunchly state a war with China will hurt the US? I dont think so....

:onfloorl: No, not Chinese. You've not been paying attention.

What kind of nonsensical reply is this. I said if China joins the war, we will attack China. Try to use some logic.

No, you said "US echelon will use it as an excuse to destroy and slowdown the growth of the chinese military. It doesn't matter if China wants to join or not, it will have to respond knowing US intentions".

That is, you said that the USA will use a war as an excuse to destroy the Chinese military, & China will have to react to that US threat. Apply logic to that, if you will. Firstly, if the USA is not going to attack (& you state it intends to), there is no US threat, & the reason you state for China to fight is not present. Therefore, China fighting depends on the USA attacking, or making a credible (& it ain't credible if they don't intend to do it) threat to attack China.

.... There was also a recent statement saying Chinese troops will be sent into N.K. if it destabilizes.

Indeed. But that is nothing to do with a Korean war. That is, as you said, if it destabilises. What they've said they would do is intervene to restore order if necessary. Specifically, they talk about securing weapons of mass destruction, & maintaining sufficient civil order to enable them to ship, or facilitate others shipping, essential supplies to the population, to prevent a mass exodus of population across the border. They've also said they'd seek a UN mandate & international co-operation first, though would go ahead without it if they considered it too urgent to wait. Does that sound like charging in to fight the South Koreans & USA?

Now we've got that over with, shall we return to a realistic discussion of how a possible war between the Koreas might proceed?

BTW, I strongly suggest that you adjust your tone.

[F-15 Eagle]

No it would not, even though it would go from a truce to a official peace treaty there will be a major mistrust for uncle Kim, let his past record stand.

The U.S would like nothing more than to pull our ground troops out, they are no longer needed. All the ROK government needs to say is leave and we will be gone.

But South Korea likes us having our troops there, it helps keep a relationship with them, plus the South Korean president wants us troops to be there, in 2012 operation wartime control will be shifted to R.O.K. control but 25,000 U.S. troops will remain in the South, 60 miles south of the DMZ in a huge military base I think.

[swerve]

Can we steer this back to South and North Korea going at it toe to toe, lets all pretend that the big boys will just stand back and let this old feud get settled between the two of them. How would south Korea attack North Korea, what kind of equipment will get the job done for them.

Tricky thing here is that the 1961 treaty still obliges China to render military aid to N. Korea if it is attacked. It doesn't commit China to a specific level of aid, AFAIK, but unless the Chinese could find a way to represent the S. Korean attack as a response to N. Korean aggression (they have no commitment to assist a N. Korean attack), they'd have to cough up, or be seen as willing to break treaties.

[Firehorse]

Even if the ROK asks US troops to leave ASAP, the US will still want to keep some presence in accordance with their own considerations. Those bases are the only ones on E. Asia subcontinent, if you will, that give access to & host american military!

[swerve]

Even if the ROK asks US troops to leave ASAP, the US will still want to keep some presence in accordance with their own considerations. Those bases are the only ones on E. Asia subcontinent, if you will, that give access to & host american military!

If S. Korea asks the USA to leave, it will leave.

[eckherl]

ROK will not attack NK in the present conditions- enough Korean blood been spilled already! In the future, both Koreas & China will have different order of battle, so, IMO, it's futile to play these war games now. I only expect China &/or ROK militaries crossing NK borders in a police-type operation to gain geoplitical/economic/strategic advantages. For wargaming, I would rather start comparing combined NK & PRC militaries with ROK capability. Without even going in depth, I can already say that the ROK should be thinking about preserving its assets and don't get drawn in- otherwise, Koreans will be killing each other & Chinese again, like 55 years ago!

I think there is alot of people who seem to under estimate the capabilities of North Korea due to the poverty and economic issues plus the age of their weapons platforms. Neither China, U.S or ROK forces are going to enter that country without suffering a major loss of life, we should not forget that North Korea has been at a state of war with ROK now for quite some time, they have gun positions laid out in the sides of mountains, some of these systems actually have elavators that can move weapons from one position to the other as an example, now as a added bonus they have nukes and they would not hesitate to use them if cornered. With the terrian that would be fought over it really is not ideal for armored penetrations, artillery and ground pounders will rule that fight with tanks providing indirect fire support, for this the only edge that I see will come in the form of air and naval assets. Would any of the big three eventually win that fight yes, but with the amount of bloodshed and destruction that would happen it is just not worth the risk from a dedicated enemy opponent like North Korea. Most likely approach is to let this hungry tiger die from the inside out, then will come the issue between China and South Korea on how this will be handled properly, China will have to walk lightly with the ROK because of the size of their economy and military and due to ROKs friendship with the U.S.. I have talked to ROK officers over dinner and drinks and have asked them who they felt their future enemy would be and the majority of them felt that it will be China, as a surprise they never mentioned Japan as a future threat and felt that they should have more of a military cooperation with them, even though they do not trust them, they actually have learned to not trust anyone. just my two bits that i would like to add.

[eckherl]

Even if the ROK asks US troops to leave ASAP, the US will still want to keep some presence in accordance with their own considerations. Those bases are the only ones on E. Asia subcontinent, if you will, that give access to & host american military!

No we will not, the only reason why we are there is because the ROK asked us to stay, Rumsfield was ready to make that move and there were plans drawn up to make it happen.

[Ozzy Blizzard]

No we will not, the only reason why we are there is because the ROK asked us to stay, Rumsfield was ready to make that move and there were plans drawn up to make it happen.

Thats what happened in the philipines IIRC. They asked and you guys left. Why would ROK be any different???

[Ozzy Blizzard]

I think there is alot of people who seem to under estimate the capabilities of North Korea due to the poverty and economic issues plus the age of their weapons platforms. Neither China, U.S or ROK forces are going to enter that country without suffering a major loss of life, we should not forget that North Korea has been at a state of war with ROK now for quite some time, they have gun positions laid out in the sides of mountains, some of these systems actually have elavators that can move weapons from one position to the other as an example, now as a added bonus they have nukes and they would not hesitate to use them if cornered. With the terrian that would be fought over it really is not ideal for armored penetrations, artillery and ground pounders will rule that fight with tanks providing indirect fire support, for this the only edge that I see will come in the form of air and naval assets. Would any of the big three eventually win that fight yes, but with the amount of bloodshed and destruction that would happen it is just not worth the risk from a dedicated enemy opponent like North Korea. Most likely approach is to let this hungry tiger die from the inside out, then will come the issue between China and South Korea on how this will be handled properly, China will have to walk lightly with the ROK because of the size of their economy and military and due to ROKs friendship with the U.S.. I have talked to ROK officers over dinner and drinks and have asked them who they felt their future enemy would be and the majority of them felt that it will be China, as a surprise they never mentioned Japan as a future threat and felt that they should have more of a military cooperation with them, even though they do not trust them, they actually have learned to not trust anyone. just my two bits that i would like to add.


Things would definatly be tough for the south if the U.S. and ROK went at it with the north. The civilian casualties will be massive ammongst ROK population centres, and things would be tough on the ground for the grunts thats for sure.

However all of these defenceive positions and postures are geared toward the south. I doubt PROC would have any were near as much trouble as ROK. A lightning mechanised thrust over the yalu might just see chinese tanks in pyonyang in a matter of hours. You have to wonder how robust NK's C3ISR capability really is. With a few precise strikes and deep mechanised penitrations that dont have to deal with all of those fortifications, the whole political/military structure would fall apart IMO.

[eckherl]

But South Korea likes us having our troops there, it helps keep a relationship with them, plus the South Korean president wants us troops to be there, in 2012 operation wartime control will be shifted to R.O.K. control but 25,000 U.S. troops will remain in the South, 60 miles south of the DMZ in a huge military base I think.

Agreed - and that is another bad situation for the 2nd ID, the majority of its fighting force is within artillery range. They were wanting to move them further south but this is still being decided.

[lobbie111]

What i want to know is if they go to war with ROK could they sustain it, do they have the ammunition and food to sustain an all out assult against ROK, there have been weapon importation restrictions for some time now, wouldn't most of their shells be rusting in their bunkers?

[Thery]

It is very unlikely for China to join in the war at least not before try everything to bring both sides to UN and solve it there.

China sees every crisis like this one as mirror image of herself with Taiwan, she always state “No country should militarily involve into other country’s internal problem, the right way is through negotiation with UN help.” I doubt China will switch her position on this easily. Unless US jump in without UN approve once again, but even then I still doubt that China will directly involve, she may support/sell NK weapon but she will not send in her army.

China will only directly join in this war when someone attacks her. If anyone believes that US will use this as an excuse/opportunity to invade and weakening China better add Russia into his/her equation as well. Will Russia just stand by? You are likely talking about beginning of WWIII here, both sides knows the risk very well and it is unlikely for ether side to push it too far. So please leave other country out of this.

North Korea is sure out gun by South Korea, but I’m more interested on the training of its troops. If they still inhumanly train their elite troops as they use to and still have high control of it(The army still have high moral). Then its military force should not be tread lightly by any means, especially at north part of Korea which mainly cover by hills and mountains. Think about the war between Iraq and Iran.

PS: With today's Weapon Tech NK no longer able acts as buffer zone for China. And Chinese government no longer treads Capitalism as enemy. And the relation between China and SK is quite good. Therefore, even Korea united is not a huge bad news for China.

[eckherl]

Thats what happened in the philipines IIRC. They asked and you guys left. Why would ROK be any different???

If needed the U.S would be able to provide air and naval assets rather quickly, Guam and maybe Japan would be a our permanent airports and we do have a rather large naval presence in that area based out of Japan. I feel that this type of support is needed more that boots on the ground plus ROK could handle that aspect of the war. We had a saying in the 2nd ID and that was all we were to the North Koreans was a speed bump.

[eckherl]

What i want to know is if they go to war with ROK could they sustain it, do they have the ammunition and food to sustain an all out assult against ROK, there have been weapon importation restrictions for some time now, wouldn't most of their shells be rusting in their bunkers?

They do manufacture their own munitions, also if a war was to break out it would be over rather quickly with a major loss in human life, and as Ozzy Blizzard pointed out the casualties among ROK civilians would be shocking. You really do not have alot of real estate to fight in over there.

[lobbie111]

Yeah I had a look at a detailed map. But I don't think NK are stupid enough to do that anymore, by causing a bloodbath everyone comes not just the US, Australia, Canada, and Nato countries and a few UN ones. I think this war will be fought with words not violence.

[eckherl]

Things would definatly be tough for the south if the U.S. and ROK went at it with the north. The civilian casualties will be massive ammongst ROK population centres, and things would be tough on the ground for the grunts thats for sure.

However all of these defenceive positions and postures are geared toward the south. I doubt PROC would have any were near as much trouble as ROK. A lightning mechanised thrust over the yalu might just see chinese tanks in pyonyang in a matter of hours. You have to wonder how robust NK's C3ISR capability really is. With a few precise strikes and deep mechanised penitrations that dont have to deal with all of those fortifications, the whole political/military structure would fall apart IMO.

I agree that there really isn`t that much in defensive positions along the Yalu, one can see the amount of North Koreans sneaking into China as witness to that. But one would wonder how South Korea would feel with such a move coming from China.

[Thery]

Yeah I had a look at a detailed map. But I don't think NK are stupid enough to do that anymore, by causing a bloodbath everyone comes not just the US, Australia, Canada, and Nato countries and a few UN ones. I think this war will be fought with words not violence.
The one we need worry is Mr. Kim not NK people. If anything endangers his position I do not know what he will do. If he still in control and comfortable we will have nothing to worry about.

[lobbie111]

Thery i hate to break it to you but he's on his last legs (health and age wise)

[eckherl]

Tricky thing here is that the 1961 treaty still obliges China to render military aid to N. Korea if it is attacked. It doesn't commit China to a specific level of aid, AFAIK, but unless the Chinese could find a way to represent the S. Korean attack as a response to N. Korean aggression (they have no commitment to assist a N. Korean attack), they'd have to cough up, or be seen as willing to break treaties.

China and South Korea do have some pretty good trade agreements going that seems to be benefiting both economies, one would wonder if China would think that it would be worth risking because of a country that needs a major change. I would also wonder if China would really be concerned with world opinion in regards to supporting a country that seems to shun the UN and let their people starve and live in poverty for the sole purpose of personal gain from a tyrant.

[eckherl]

The one we need worry is Mr. Kim not NK people. If anything endangers his position I do not know what he will do. If he still in control and comfortable we will have nothing to worry about.

There are some who are not worried about uncle Kim but the high ranking officers in the military. They seem to be the ones who were pushing for the nukes to get some form of leverage to keep ROK at bay. They are also the ones who were thumbing their noses at China over the nuke issue.

[Thery]

Thery i hate to break it to you but he's on his last legs (health and age wise)
True his number is counting, but that does not mean we don’t need worry about him. There at least two risks that may worth to worry about.

1) Will Kim gamble all he has because there is not much he going to lost when he is going to dead and want be the one in history to united Korea.
2) After Kim dead does the power transaction be smooth. Instability always exists when power transaction happens at non-democracy country.

Anyway this is off topic already. Let’s move back to the compare between the military powers of both sides. Should we?
Does anyone know more about troops training between both sides?

[lobbie111]

I think that the NK troops would be trained using older methods but would be rigorously trained probably moreso than the ROK troops but I am no expert

[swerve]

Thery i hate to break it to you but he's on his last legs (health and age wise)

He's not that old - 60-something. His health is said to be poor (diabetes & heart trouble, IIRC, probably results of his grossly self-indulgent lifestyle), but with good health care he could live for many years. He gets the best health care money can buy in Russia & China, or from doctors willing to visit N. Korea.

My last digression . . .

[eckherl]

I think that the NK troops would be trained using older methods but would be rigorously trained probably moreso than the ROK troops but I am no expert

Well - they really do not have anything better to do but train and work the fields and farms for food, which goes to them versus the people. Training for ROK forces is about on par with most modern militaries.

And as Swerve pointed out uncle Kim is not that old and with proper medical care he will most likely be around for quite some time unless his military decides to take him out because he has grown too soft to their standards. Please remember that these old farts have been around for quite some time and live very comfortable, with the atrocities that they are responsible for they very well know what will happen when it is over for them.

[F-15 Eagle]

Well - they really do not have anything better to do but train and work the fields and farms for food, which goes to them versus the people. Training for ROK forces is about on par with most modern militaries.

And as Swerve pointed out uncle Kim is not that old and with proper medical care he will most likely be around for quite some time unless his military decides to take him out because he has grown too soft to their standards. Please remember that these old farts have been around for quite some time and live very comfortable, with the atrocities that they are responsible for they very well know what will happen when it is over for them.

Don't forget that Kim has 3 sons that one of them is likely to become the next communist president of North Korea. Though that wont be for awhile, the rumors of Kim being too sick and dieing are not true.

[eckherl]

Don't forget that Kim has 3 sons that one of them is likely to become the next communist president of North Korea. Though that wont be for awhile, the rumors of Kim being too sick and dieing are not true.

From what I have been told he seems to be alive and well, that would be interesting to see which son would take over, he will have to be largely accepted by the North Korean high command and they seem a little impatient with uncle Kim.

[Incognito129]

That is, you said that the USA will use a war as an excuse to destroy the Chinese military, & China will have to react to that US threat. Apply logic to that, if you will. Firstly, if the USA is not going to attack (& you state it intends to), there is no US threat, & the reason you state for China to fight is not present. Therefore, China fighting depends on the USA attacking, or making a credible (& it ain't credible if they don't intend to do it) threat to attack China.


Your assumption here is that we think China is not a threat. It has repeated shown territorial ambitions towards North Korea, Taiwan and Tibet.

The US fully intends to attack China if need be. We have been constantly warning China and asking them for a peaceful moderization.

Dont kid yourself your Chinese, you are not American. Its obvious by the way you say things like the "US doesn't intend to attack".


Indeed. But that is nothing to do with a Korean war. That is, as you said, if it destabilises. What they've said they would do is intervene to restore order if necessary. Specifically, they talk about securing weapons of mass destruction, & maintaining sufficient civil order to enable them to ship, or facilitate others shipping, essential supplies to the population, to prevent a mass exodus of population across the border. They've also said they'd seek a UN mandate & international co-operation first, though would go ahead without it if they considered it too urgent to wait. Does that sound like charging in to fight the South Koreans & USA?


Since when was China ever responsible? Last time I checked it was North Korea not China. You think people are fooled by this but its the opposite.

Words mean very little from a Communist country with no freedom of the press.

Believe me when I say this the US military has zero problem attacking China if need be.

[Incognito129]

China and South Korea do have some pretty good trade agreements going that seems to be benefiting both economies, one would wonder if China would think that it would be worth risking because of a country that needs a major change. I would also wonder if China would really be concerned with world opinion in regards to supporting a country that seems to shun the UN and let their people starve and live in poverty for the sole purpose of personal gain from a tyrant.

Which trade agreements do they have?

I doubt any trade agreement between the countries would have a serious effect on China. Depending on the size of the agreement, it might seriously affect the trade balance of SK, as far as I know no such agreement as been made.

If you have forgotten, the US has been putting enormous pressure on China to reel in the rogue country, instead they went ahead and conducted a nuclear test. Recent advancements between the US and NK are most likely due to mr Kim's failing health and the leverage against China.

[swerve]

..
Dont kid yourself your Chinese, ..

Please explain what this is supposed to mean. My Chinese what? Or is it a spelling mistake & you're still claiming to know my nationality better than I do? If so, I suggest you surrender immediately, since if us fiendish orientals :rotfl have superior skill than you in your own language, what chance do you stand when we apply our immense intellects to other areas? :onfloorl:

I have already told you that my nationality is a matter of public record on this forum. I'd like to know why you think anyone should place any credence in the views of someone who can't even look up that simple piece of information, after having been pointed to it.

BTW, you've still given no indication of what the basis is of your claims to knowledge & understanding of N.E. Asian politics, economics & history. Care to enlighten us?

[eckherl]

Which trade agreements do they have?

I doubt any trade agreement between the countries would have a serious effect on China. Depending on the size of the agreement, it might seriously affect the trade balance of SK, as far as I know no such agreement as been made.

If you have forgotten, the US has been putting enormous pressure on China to reel in the rogue country, instead they went ahead and conducted a nuclear test. Recent advancements between the US and NK are most likely due to mr Kim's failing health and the leverage against China.

South Korean companies have invested quite a bit in China, their relationship is normalized to a point that on average you have over 20 air flights between the two on a daily basis, China is no fool, why jeapordize a relationship with a country that will invest in your future over a dying corrupt country that can do nothing but offer you bad credibility in the eyes of the world.

Where are you getting that Kim Jong Ill is near his death bed, Half of my family lives in ROK and they have not heard of this, we do know that he does have health issues and he has a personal doctor around him at all times but his ailments have not reached to that point to where he is going to be taking a dirt nap.

[t68]

Please explain what this is supposed to mean. My Chinese what? Or is it a spelling mistake & you're still claiming to know my nationality better than I do? If so, I suggest you surrender immediately, since if us fiendish orientals :rotfl have superior skill than you in your own language, what chance do you stand when we apply our immense intellects to other areas? :onfloorl:

I have already told you that my nationality is a matter of public record on this forum. I'd like to know why you think anyone should place any credence in the views of someone who can't even look up that simple piece of information, after having been pointed to it.

BTW, you've still given no indication of what the basis is of your claims to knowledge & understanding of N.E. Asian politics, economics & history. Care to enlighten us?

Hi Guys

Maybe swerve is convict stock and has been transported back to the motherland :onfloorl: :onfloorl:

But back to topic

I cannot see this becoming bigger than it is, with all of Uncle Kim’s posturing I don’t think he really wants to the lose power base he has in country.
If he starts any thing there is a real risk he will lose power and as we all know power corrupts ,I think he will continue to play the US and Chinese to get what he wants as he knows the US/China have to much to lose if this becomes a hot war on the Korean peninsula .

As to who will win, if it is only north against the south, The south will but with devastating loses and there will only be losers in the end from the lives destroyed and the economic ruin of the economy, If it becomes a protracted war with the US and China joining against each other in my opinion it will be like the 1950/3 war it will become a stalemate ,Yes the Americans have the technology but the Chinese have to many boots on the ground , it will come down to who has the nerve and will to see it though to the end game :( :( .

Regards,
Tom

[Firehorse]

I have talked to ROK officers over dinner and drinks and have asked them who they felt their future enemy would be and the majority of them felt that it will be China,..
And the relation between China and SK is quite good. .. Therefore, even Korea united is not a huge bad news for China.

IMO, united Korea may present more a problem to them than a divided one. I seriously doubt that, even under the best of circumstances, the unification process will go smoothly- it may every well resemble what happened with North & South Yemen. "It's better to have a buejay in hand than a crane in the sky"- if united Korea stays even neutral, or worse, allies herself with Japan/Taiwan and/or USA against China it will be bad news indeed! And in the long run, territorial disputes will arise between a strong Korea and China.
I also remember an article in Aviation Week (10/04/04 issue) about F-15K that ROKAF is procuring- it talked about them meant to counter China.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/PUB_F-15K_Past_Now_Future_lg.jpg

www.viewimages.com/Search.aspx?mid=77326505...

Lastly, "land buffer" or not, direct access to the Sea of Japan will greatly improve China's position in the Far East.

[Incognito129]

Please explain what this is supposed to mean. My Chinese what? Or is it a spelling mistake & you're still claiming to know my nationality better than I do? If so, I suggest you surrender immediately, since if us fiendish orientals :rotfl have superior skill than you in your own language, what chance do you stand when we apply our immense intellects to other areas? :onfloorl:

I have already told you that my nationality is a matter of public record on this forum. I'd like to know why you think anyone should place any credence in the views of someone who can't even look up that simple piece of information, after having been pointed to it.

BTW, you've still given no indication of what the basis is of your claims to knowledge & understanding of N.E. Asian politics, economics & history. Care to enlighten us?

Sure as soon as you enlighten the forum of your blood line. Are you that ashamed of who you are that you need to pretend? Oh wait its now about your "nationality".

Dont try to claim ignorance when you started this. You can cry about poor China and then turn around and act like you are trying to be objective. I can't change that, but neither does US intentions against China.

The US is dying to bomb the shit out of China.

Either way dont overrate your rate of military tech growth just because the Russians are willing to sell.

[Incognito129]

South Korean companies have invested quite a bit in China, their relationship is normalized to a point that on average you have over 20 air flights between the two on a daily basis, China is no fool, why jeapordize a relationship with a country that will invest in your future over a dying corrupt country that can do nothing but offer you bad credibility in the eyes of the world.

Where are you getting that Kim Jong Ill is near his death bed, Half of my family lives in ROK and they have not heard of this, we do know that he does have health issues and he has a personal doctor around him at all times but his ailments have not reached to that point to where he is going to be taking a dirt nap.

News? Try any news agency, MSNBC, CBS, WP.

Here since you apparently dont read the news,

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18923894/

I have no idea why South Koreans haven't heard of this, I'd figure they'd be the first know but I dont live there.

[Waylander]

What is your agenda?
Do you dream about the US bombing the **** out of China?
As if the US wouldn't know that a war against China is not in their interest and vice versa.
The US would gain nothing from pushing for an armed conflict with China.

BTW, just like Swerve I am no Chinese...just to make it clear before you go onto another rampage.
I am not american though...

-----------
Back to topic

As Eckherl rightly pointed out, one should not underrate the armed forces of NK.
Especially if bad weather diminishes the availability and power of air assets which SK and the US can bring to bear against the NK assault during the first days of an assault.

Everything in range of NK artillery is going to get pounded hard, really hard. And I am sceptical of the ability of SK and US counterfire and airstrikes to reduce the NK artillery very fast. We are talking about a lot of guns and rocket launchers firing out of fortified positions and bunkers rendering anything else than a direct hit nearly useless.

Eckherl is the expert and already said some things about the terrain over there.
This terrain is also one of the reasons why superior tech is going to have less of an impact (I don't say "no impact"!) onto this battle.

And I don't want to think about the masses of refugees flooding out of the cities because of the artillery pounding the northern ones and Taepedongs hitting the ones further south.

I think that the chances of NK winning such a war are relatively slim but they could make the south pay a huge price.
And maybe they could make the price that high that everything goes back to zero when they are pushed back to the former DMZ by the remains of the ROKA and US reinforcements.
SK and the US may not be willing to fight all the way up north and instead push for a peace agreement.

[Incognito129]

What is your agenda?
Do you dream about the US bombing the **** out of China?
As if the US wouldn't know that a war against China is not in their interest and vice versa.
The US would gain nothing from pushing for an armed conflict with China.

BTW, just like Swerve I am no Chinese...just to make it clear before you go onto another rampage.
I am not american though...

-----------
Back to topic

As Eckherl rightly pointed out, one should not underrate the armed forces of NK.
Especially if bad weather diminishes the availability and power of air assets which SK and the US can bring to bear against the NK assault during the first days of an assault.

Everything in range of NK artillery is going to get pounded hard, really hard. And I am sceptical of the ability of SK and US counterfire and airstrikes to reduce the NK artillery very fast. We are talking about a lot of guns and rocket launchers firing out of fortified positions and bunkers rendering anything else than a direct hit nearly useless.

Eckherl is the expert and already said some things about the terrain over there.
This terrain is also one of the reasons why superior tech is going to have less of an impact (I don't say "no impact"!) onto this battle.

And I don't want to think about the masses of refugees flooding out of the cities because of the artillery pounding the northern ones and Taepedongs hitting the ones further south.

I think that the chances of NK winning such a war are relatively slim but they could make the south pay a huge price.
And maybe they could make the price that high that everything goes back to zero when they are pushed back to the former DMZ by the remains of the ROKA and US reinforcements.
SK and the US may not be willing to fight all the way up north and instead push for a peace agreement.

He got pretty angry the last time I mentioned US attacking China, I thought i'd mention it again.

M.A.D. has always been N.K. position. I wouldn't over-estimate the regime's control over the general pop, there is a strong chance that they will naturally align with the Southern Koreans. Complete poverty and starvation are excellent motivators.

[eckherl]

He got pretty angry the last time I mentioned US attacking China, I thought i'd mention it again.

M.A.D. has always been N.K. position. I wouldn't over-estimate the regime's control over the general pop, there is a strong chance that they will naturally align with the Southern Koreans. Complete poverty and starvation are excellent motivators.

What type of control that they may have over the general population will not matter during the initial stages of the war, the verdict for that will be after the ROK starts to eat into North Korean territory and gains the upper hand in the war, U.S soldiers should not be used for the reason of public North Korean opinion on Americans, they have been taught at birth that we are the most evilest people roaming the planet and what we will do to them is 10 times worse than what the Japanese did to them during occupation times, this could be a motivator for them to fight us til death so to speak. Their military is highly motivated and they are well fed, all food priorities go straight to them with the public having to rely on handouts from Charity groups and governments from around the world, plus what they can hide and scavenge. Kim Jong Ill is most likely hated by the average North Korean, but when you spent your life in silence versus getting sent to a Gulag or getting shot out right, reality will have to pretty much be staring them in the face before they make a move.

[evripide]

Hi,

I just want to post a comparsion between the north and the south.

Source: Defense White Paper 2006 Ministery of National Defence, Rep. of Korea (English version)

South / North
Total Troops: 674,000 / 1,170,000
Army: 541,000 / 1,000,000
Navy: 68,000 / 60,000
AF: 65,000 / 110,000

Tanks: 2,300 / 3,700
Amoured Vehicles: 2,500 / 2,100
Field Artillery: 5,100 / 8,500
MLRS: 200 / 4,800
Suface to Suface: 20 / 80


War Ships: 120 / 420
Landing Vessels: 10 / 260
Support Vessels: 20 / 30
Submarines: 10 / 60


Fighters: 500 / 820
Special Aircraft: 80 / 30
Support Aircraft: 190 / 510
Hellicopters: 680 / 310


Reserve Forces: 3,040,000 / 7,700,000

I hope it is helpful.

Evripide.

[Thery]

Hi,

I just want to post a comparsion between the north and the south.

Source: Defense White Paper 2006 Ministery of National Defence, Rep. of Korea (English version)

South / North
Total Troops: 674,000 / 1,170,000
Army: 541,000 / 1,000,000
Navy: 68,000 / 60,000
AF: 65,000 / 110,000

Tanks: 2,300 / 3,700
Amoured Vehicles: 2,500 / 2,100
Field Artillery: 5,100 / 8,500
MLRS: 200 / 4,800
Suface to Suface: 20 / 80


War Ships: 120 / 420
Landing Vessels: 10 / 260
Support Vessels: 20 / 30
Submarines: 10 / 60


Fighters: 500 / 820
Special Aircraft: 80 / 30
Support Aircraft: 190 / 510
Hellicopters: 680 / 310


Reserve Forces: 3,040,000 / 7,700,000

I hope it is helpful.

Evripide.

This list is somewhat misleading, I believe 420 war ships are mostly small patrol-size crafts and 3,700 tanks are obsolete T-54 or T-62. However as said by others, the huge number of artillery and ground troops with the terrine they are in will be a huge challenge toward any army.

[evripide]

This list is somewhat misleading, I believe 420 war ships are mostly small patrol-size crafts and 3,700 tanks are obsolete T-54 or T-62. However as said by others, the huge number of artillery and ground troops with the terrine they are in will be a huge challenge toward any army.

You are right. Though the numbers may be right, the list does not show the quality of the forces. The list reveals a strategy of South Korean ministry of defence. Perhaps, they need more budget and they focus on their smaller numbers of troops and vehicles than the northen rival's out-dated weapons.

[Firehorse]

Regime collapse in Pyongyang (http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080121/EDITORIAL/178481658/1013/editorial&template=printart)

Under Operations Plan 5027 (CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027), the United States plans to provide units to reinforce the Republic of Korea in the event of external armed attack. These units and their estimated arrival dates are listed in the Time Phased Force Deployment List (TPFDL), Appendix 6, to Annex A to CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027. The TPFDL is updated biennially through U.S./ROK agreements. CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027 is distributed with a SECRET-U.S./ROK classification. The Ulchi-Focus Lens (UFL) exercise is the largest Command Post Exercise [CPX] among JCS Exercise category. It provides an opportunity for commanders and staffs to focus on strategic and operational issues associated with general military operations on the Korean peninsula. During this exercise each August, the ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) and the United Nations Command (UNC) of Korea, as well as USFK practice the implement of OPLAN 5027 with the scenario of North Korean Peoples Army’s (NKPA) aggression. Combined political-military training emphasizes Flexible Deterrent Options (FDO), ROK mobilization, US reinforcement, and synchronization of Deep, Close and Rear battles.
OPLAN 5027 is the operations plan that is the "go to war in Korea" plan. Tasks performed during the early denial phase of OPLAN 5027 include Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) operations and theater Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and Integration [RSOI]. This phase of OPLAN 5027 assumes the sustainability of the southern defense and consequently enough time for reinforcements. Tasks performed during the Destruction Phase of the OPLAN involves a strategy of maneuver warfare north of the Demilitarized Zone with a goal of terminating the North Korea regime, rather than simply terminating the war by returning North Korean forces to the Truce Line. In this phase operations would include the US invasion of north Korea, the destruction of the Korean People’s Army and the north Korean government in Pyongyang. US troops would occupy north Korea and "Washington and Seoul will then abolish north Korea as a state and ‘reorganize’ it under South Korean control.
Given the parameters of OPLAN 5027, the narrow window for a decisive and relatively safe North Korean opportunity would be between a week and a month -- during the Denial Phase, before the rapid deployment of US light forces would be followed by the arrival of advance units of heavier divisions. North Korea would have significant incentive to achieve decisive results during this phase, at least through the use of chemical weapons against US forces in South Korea. North Korea might also seek to discourage Japanese support for reinforcments through threatening the use of nuclear weapons against US facilities in Japan, or threatening the use of chemical or biological weapons against the Japanese population, delivered either by missiles or clandestine means. The credibility of these threats against Japan might be enhanced through "demonstration" attacks that were not of sufficient magnitude to provoke American nuclear retaliation.
The Destruction Phase of OPLAN 5027 evidently poses the issue of national entity survival for the North Korean regime, and would be the most plausible circumstances under which the North would plausibly contemplate initiating the use of nuclear weapons, striking first in the last resort.
A March 2005 statement by the Foreign Ministry of the DPRK noted that "The DPRK and the U.S. are in the relationship of belligerency and at war technically. Therefore, it is quite natural that the DPRK has manufactured nukes for self-defence and continues to do so to cope with the policy of the Bush administration aimed at mounting a preemptive nuclear attack on it."
In addition to the political and military value of special weapons, North Korea apparently views the development and possession of special weapons as providing near and long-term economic benefits. North Korea has produced and sold large numbers of various models of missiles for significant amounts of money to customers such as Iran and Pakistan. North Korea has also found development of special weapons an effective means of extracting money from the western nations, notably the United States and Japan. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/doctrine.htm

..OPLAN 5027 and, although it's been updated many times (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027.htm)during various administrations, both Democratic and Republic, the gist of it remains the same. In addition to massive amounts of military ordnance, America guarantees to send 400,000 to 690,000 soldiers to South Korea to stave off a North Korean onslaught. With our military stretched to the breaking point in Afghanistan and Iraq, a war with North Korea could only be fought one way - by reinstituting compulsory selective service.
http://www.newshounds.us/2006/10/17/oplan_5027_is_it_our_ticket_to_the_draft.php

I very much doubt the US ability to sustain 3 wars at the same time - in the ME (Iraq + maybe Iran), Central Asia (Afghanistan + maybe Pakistan), and in the Far East- on the Korean peninsula + maybe Taiwan. Even with military draft, it will take a long time to implement conscription & training of extra troops that don't want to be there. So, the ROK will have to face NK essentually alone with perhaps, some Japanese help. For these reasons, the US may turn a blind eye if/when China goes ahead with her "humanitarian intervention" in NK.

[F-15 Eagle]

Hi,

I just want to post a comparsion between the north and the south.

Source: Defense White Paper 2006 Ministery of National Defence, Rep. of Korea (English version)

South / North
Total Troops: 674,000 / 1,170,000
Army: 541,000 / 1,000,000
Navy: 68,000 / 60,000
AF: 65,000 / 110,000

Tanks: 2,300 / 3,700
Amoured Vehicles: 2,500 / 2,100
Field Artillery: 5,100 / 8,500
MLRS: 200 / 4,800
Suface to Suface: 20 / 80


War Ships: 120 / 420
Landing Vessels: 10 / 260
Support Vessels: 20 / 30
Submarines: 10 / 60


Fighters: 500 / 820
Special Aircraft: 80 / 30
Support Aircraft: 190 / 510
Hellicopters: 680 / 310


Reserve Forces: 3,040,000 / 7,700,000

I hope it is helpful.

Evripide.

Can you give me a link to this please?

[evripide]

Hi, F-15,

Sorry but I am not allowed to add the url in this forum yet. (I have to post at least 15 times here.) But if you google 'ministry of national defense repubilc of korea' or 'mnd', you can find the site and english the site as well. Then go to 'defense policy' and there is 'defense white papers.'

Hopefully, you can find it.

evripide.

[ROCK45]

I agree NK artillery is massive and not easily defenses against but NK air force is in very bad shape. Out dated SAM's and old aircraft protecting NK key locations is a bad mix in battle SK and American aircraft would control air or most of it pretty fast. Any NK large ground forces attacking south or forming up to attack would take heavy loses quickly. Air power wise it would come down to generating enough sorties faster enough to hit targets not much would be protecting NK those targets on the ground. NK would be very limited on what follow up forces could be moved forward. I just don't see a easy answer for knocking out all those artillery pieces in harden bunkers pointing south? Maybe NK has more food and fuel reserves then we believe they have but any offensive would have to be quick and short. I can't see the NK attacking and as long the SK and US forces keep enough forces a little south of the border out of range. Our ground forces are trained very well and our equipped is top rated this combo has work else where and will work in Korea as well if war broke out. North Korea's military is in a poorer state then Iraq's I can't see it being anymore effective. It's not 1950 anymore I don't think you can get 40,000 troops to march forward half staved and little ammo and expect them to fight and be slaughtered. I may be wrong but I don't NK has the logics to wage war anymore.

[ever4244]

Sure as soon as you enlighten the forum of your blood line. Are you that ashamed of who you are that you need to pretend? Oh wait its now about your "nationality".

Dont try to claim ignorance when you started this. You can cry about poor China and then turn around and act like you are trying to be objective. I can't change that, but neither does US intentions against China.

The US is dying to bomb the shit out of China.

Either way dont overrate your rate of military tech growth just because the Russians are willing to sell.

Well then, what if he is a Chinese , what is he is not?

Is this Thread about NK vs SK or Chinese Nationality vs American Nationality?

Is this debate based on reason and fact or motherland vs bloodline ?

I came through your relpy and find your statement concerns about my personal interests and other 1.2 billion Chinese s right of speak.

You just simply rule out 1/5 of world s population s right of voice just by claiming that they are communist brainwashed and therefore all their statements are invalid. So you can end every losing debate with Chinese in that manner.

but whether we are brainwashed or not ,our abilitys of reasoning and logic is not lower than any other and perhaps much better than yours.

besides ,can you prove all your idea and oppion is based on personal perceiving and indepent thinking while not some captalism way of brainwashing?.And if so, How much credibility do your indepent idea have?

Your president came and say: US China cooperate on countering terrist and regional peace

and you say:bomb the hell out of us ,and whom should I believe?

Can you prove your idea can represent America ?


BTW :Yes 'Thery' ,I ll try to ingnore

[Thery]

I agree NK artillery is massive and not easily defenses against but NK air force is in very bad shape. Out dated SAM's and old aircraft protecting NK key locations is a bad mix in battle SK and American aircraft would control air or most of it pretty fast. Any NK large ground forces attacking south or forming up to attack would take heavy loses quickly. Air power wise it would come down to generating enough sorties faster enough to hit targets not much would be protecting NK those targets on the ground. NK would be very limited on what follow up forces could be moved forward. I just don't see a easy answer for knocking out all those artillery pieces in harden bunkers pointing south? Maybe NK has more food and fuel reserves then we believe they have but any offensive would have to be quick and short. I can't see the NK attacking and as long the SK and US forces keep enough forces a little south of the border out of range. Our ground forces are trained very well and our equipped is top rated this combo has work else where and will work in Korea as well if war broke out. North Korea's military is in a poorer state then Iraq's I can't see it being anymore effective. It's not 1950 anymore I don't think you can get 40,000 troops to march forward half staved and little ammo and expect them to fight and be slaughtered. I may be wrong but I don't NK has the logics to wage war anymore.

True NK tanks and aircraft are laughable, but as I know they do produce their own artillery and ammo. Although their quality is questionable but I do believe NK have no problem to keep them in battle condition and I truly doubt that NK lack ammo.

ROKAF should have no problem control the air, but Korean Peninsula mainly covers by small mountains and hills especially at the east and north part, in those regions air attacks are not very effective, unlike in Iraq almost every thing is wide open. When you can not rely on air force to takeout those bunkers, to win the war a ground assault could not be avoided. And an up hill battle against heavy armed bunkers will not be easy. I don’t think SK willing to make such sacrifice at the moment.

You are right about NK unable to organize an effective assault but same as SK, the reason of it maybe different but the result is the same.

To Ever4244
Chill down, the best action toward such comment is simply ignoring it. We should discuses things base on facts and reason not by passion and anger

[swerve]

Sure as soon as you enlighten the forum of your blood line. Are you that ashamed of who you are that you need to pretend? Oh wait its now about your "nationality". .

"The forum" knows my nationality. Or rather, those who've paid attention to what I've said here in the past, or bothered to check my profile. My ancestry has also been mentioned, although I think not recently. Suffice it to say that I have no Asian ancestry that I know of, & no connections to China whatsoever. Not even been there, except for Hong Kong when it was still a British colony.


Dont try to claim ignorance when you started this. You can cry about poor China and then turn around and act like you are trying to be objective. I can't change that, but neither does US intentions against China.

The US is dying to bomb the shit out of China.

Either way dont overrate your rate of military tech growth just because the Russians are willing to sell.

You seem to think the US desire to bomb China that you posit to be a good thing. Why is that? And why do you think the USA is mad keen to bomb China? Do you have good grounds for your belief, or is as well-founded as your utterly idiotic opinion of my ethnic origin, nationality, & sympathies?

[eckherl]

For all of you who thinks that the U.S is all hell bent on attacking North Korea let me state that there was a study conducted about 6 years ago by the U.S DOD that showed during the present condition of North Korean forces that if we were to attack them that we would most likely lose/suffer over 120K casualties not counting on what would happen to the civilians caught in the crossfire. Some of you under estimate their capabilities to wage war.

[F-15 Eagle]

For all of you who thinks that the U.S is all hell bent on attacking North Korea let me state that there was a study conducted about 6 years ago by the U.S DOD that showed during the present condition of North Korean forces that if we were to attack them that we would most likely lose/suffer over 120K casualties not counting on what would happen to the civilians caught in the crossfire. Some of you under estimate their capabilities to wage war.

120K??!! That would be the most casualties since the Vietnam's war, and makes Iraq look like a minor war in comparison's(which it is). But of course they expected something like that during the first Gulf War but there only around 200 casualties.

[swerve]

120K??!! That would be the most casualties since the Vietnam's war, and makes Iraq look like a minor war in comparison's(which it is). But of course they expected something like that during the first Gulf War but there only around 200 casualties.

760 US casualties, of which 293 dead (148 battle, 145 other).

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=45404

Does not include other coalition losses.

I don't think anyone expects the the North Koreans to sit tight for a few months while the USA builds up its forces, then for several weeks more while they're bombed flat.

[eckherl]

120K??!! That would be the most casualties since the Vietnam's war, and makes Iraq look like a minor war in comparison's(which it is). But of course they expected something like that during the first Gulf War but there only around 200 casualties.


A different type of war, opponent and terrian. Plus we must look at the nuke factor after this report/study was conducted, that little surprise really makes a confrontation a dreaded affair.

[ROCK45]

I'm guilty of under estimating their capabilities to wage war. I'm not saying cut forces, or cut back on training, or even think there a push over. I don't mean to come across like it's simple I know better. I think US Forces are that good our level of training unmatched our equipment first rate. I also rate South Korean force much higher then in the first Korean War. Keeping our reserves and rear bases safe and secure is a must and we should never let our guard down. Wouldn't a lot of the casualties which I don't take lightly be from artillery and rocket attacks early in the fight models? Air strikes would help take out some and counter battery fire as well. Once direct fighting took place our armor and mechanized forces are clearly better. A big part of the fight would be keeping ammo and fuel moving forward. I realized warfare is much more complex and on so many different levels then I can fully understand. Assets from Japan are huge in this mix more so then the average person sees. Organizing it all and doing it fast and correct is a battle by itself.

[sgtgunn]

One of the biggest factors in a NK attack on SK, that has yet to mentioned (at least I don't recall seeing it) is terrain. I have two tours in SK with US 2nd Infantry Division under my belt - one as an infantryman at Camp Liberty Bell (on the DMZ) in 1991 and one as an M1 armored crewman at Camp Casey (just south of the DMZ) in 1995, so I am intimately familiar with the ground where most of the fighting would take place. It is highly mountainous, with a shortage of good N-S roads (deliberately I imagine) making any kind of maneuver warfare very difficult. There are essentially two "invasion" corridors on the peninsula. The western corridor is a lowland region running down the west coast from Pyongyang through Panmunjom across the Imjin River to Seoul. A similar eastern corridor runs down the peninsulas east coast. While new roads have been built running along these corridors in the South's attempt to economically engage the north, both areas remain heavily fortified and mined near the DMZ. MSR #1 the major N-S road in the western corridor is periodically bisected by anti-tank wall/ditch/mine field combinations. Where the road physically passes through the defenses, there are "rockdrops" which are massive concrete blocks designed to fall into the roadway, blocking it when a preset demo charge is blown. Most roads in between the DMZ and Seoul in the western corridor (and I presume in the eastern as well) have rockdrops placed at cuts and chokepoints along their lengths. Where MSR#1 crosses the Imjin River near the DMZ the bridges are rigged with demolition charges, and the river banks (both sides) are heavily mined. In the area "North of the River" along the DMZ itself you can't walk 100 meters without coming across a minefield or some kind of fortification. Any mechanized or motorized movement is limited to a very small number of generally narrow roads, which will be blocked by obstacles and covered by indirect fires. Moving cross country in vehicles is nearly impossible in most places since anything that is not a road is either a rice paddy or the side of an invariably steep and rugged hill or mountain. Even in the winter when the paddies freeze, they are separated by tall, steep paddy dikes which would have to be breeched by engineers. Most paddies are fairly small, so there is a LOT of dikes. Infantry can move and fight cross country, but infantry is slow even in best terrain, which Korea is certainly not. Cross country movement on foot in Korea mean one thing - constantly dragging your ass up and down big, steep and heavily forested hills and mountains. No lightening advances there. It is also important to remember that despite the NK military's large size, its equipment is universally obsolescent, and if the general condition of NK is any indicator, it is probably plagued by shortages, maintenance problems, and other issues that would severely degrade its effectiveness - especially in any kind of offensive operations.

So here's how I envision things unfolding. Crazy Kim wakes up on morning, discovers he's losing his beloved bouffant hair, and blows his last transistor. He grabs the hotline phone and orders his generals to do the deed. They decide (for some reason) not to overthrow the midget nutcase, and rather commit national suicide and launch the attack. We'll assume (for the sake of the scenario) that the US and ROK are caught generally napping, and only get a 24 warning that things might turn ugly. That allows most of the ROK regular army troops and what's left of the US 2nd ID (1 BCT I believe) to get into their battle positions (it only takes about an hour or two to do so. I've done the damn drills too many times to count). The initial NK barrage is devastating, pummeling US and ROK units near the DMZ. Gas is almost certainly used which causes heavy casualties. NK long range artillery also hits Seoul and it's suburbs causing massive civilian casualties and panic. (We'll assume that NK has no operational nukes or is not so completely insane that it uses them - if it did, the war would be even shorter - i.e. the length of time for a B-2 or Trident SLBM to vaporize Pyongyang). While this is going on, the ROK, US and possibly Japanese Air Forces go into action.
The ROK Air Force has 171 F-16s of various models, 76 F-4E Phantom IIs, 142 F-5E Tiger IIs, and 28 F-15Ks (essentially same as US F-15E Strike Eagle). The US has two fighter wings in Japan, one with F-15C/Ds and one with F-16CJ/DJs. It has two more in Korea, one with F-16CG/DGs and one with a mix of F-16CG/DGs and A-10/OA-10s. There are two more wings in Alaska one with F-15E Strike Eagles and F-22A Raptors and the other with a mix of F-16CG/DGs and A-10/OA-10s. The JASDF has 178 F-15s (J & DJ models), 91 F-4EJ Phantom IIs, 23 F-1s, 33 F-2s. ROK & allied air forces would make short work of the NK air force, and rapidly achieve air superiority over the battlefield. SEAD missions would begin to suppress and destroy the NK air defense system. NK artillery would be targeted by both air forces and US and SK counter battery fire - especially US & ROK MLRS systems which proved to be particularly lethal in that role during both US-Iraq wars. Meanwhile NK ground forces would be bogged down trying to breech minefields and obstacles, cross rivers, etc. and would be heavily channelized by the terrain. This would make them sitting ducks for the inevitable onslaught of air power. Remember the "road of death" in the first Iraq War? NK ground forces would come under near constant air attack by allied air forces. Destroyed vehicles would clog the already over burdened roads, backing the NK forces up even further. US and Japanese AH-64 Apaches and ROK AH-1 Super Cobras would add to the carnage. Once the NK artillery threat is neutralized, US & ROK artillery units (including US M109A6 Paladin and the similar ROK K-9 Thunder) begin to pound the stalled NK columns. That would pretty much be the end of things, offensively for the NK forces. NK light infantry and SF units could moves south and cause problems, but eventually the NK logistical system (certainly rickety and strained at best) would completely collapse under the strain of constant attack and interdiction by allied air forces, and they would "wither on the vine". You can only carry so much food, water and ammo as a grunt on foot - enough for a day or two of serious combat ops. Then you're down to poking people with your bayonet. Presumably international outrage, coupled with pressure from China and Russia and the obvious failure of offensive operations would lead to some kind of collapse or "regime" change in NK politically - probably by senior military officers. Kim goes against the wall, "bang", and the new folks in charge call an armistice and say "it wasn't us! We're sorry!". Obviously the aftermath would be a disaster. Massive civilian casualties in the south, humanitarian and refugee crisis in the north (even worse than the one they already have), God knows what the economic repercussions would be. A lot of the ROK industr