North Korea VS South Korea

[ROCK45]

I agree with eckherl on two major points here. The air war would be very different because of the terrain in Korea and the US broke the will of the Iraqi's basically before the first troops crossed the border. I don't think North Korea would sit back for weeks and get bombed without using there artillery. Most of this thread deals with what if North Korea attacked but lets flip it how with the US help would South Korea attack North Korea? I think attacking command and control and stopping or slowing down the orders to a few dozen artillery commands would be my first move. I can remember a Larry Bond fiction novel of the North Korea attack the South Korea but can't remember the one fiction novel I read with the South Koreans attacking the North Koreans. Maybe somebody could help with that.

[Incognito129]

N.K. also have massive number of underground facilities and tunnels. This isn't any Iraq where you are bombing old planes out in the open.

[Incognito129]

"The forum" knows my nationality. Or rather, those who've paid attention to what I've said here in the past, or bothered to check my profile. My ancestry has also been mentioned, although I think not recently. Suffice it to say that I have no Asian ancestry that I know of, & no connections to China whatsoever. Not even been there, except for Hong Kong when it was still a British colony.


I dont care who you've convinced. You are asian, which country i have no clue. I dont care if you reside in the UK, hell you could even be a British jew who are big supporters of China. Either way you have an overwhelming bias towards China, and Japan for that matter based solely on what you've said.

You probably will never reveal your real ethnicity so I wont bother anymore.


You seem to think the US desire to bomb China that you posit to be a good thing. Why is that? And why do you think the USA is mad keen to bomb China? Do you have good grounds for your belief, or is as well-founded as your utterly idiotic opinion of my ethnic origin, nationality, & sympathies?

China wants power, its expressed territorial ambitions. Its in the best interests of the US to eliminate the Chinese military, before Russia can help them grow and the world order becomes askew.

The world has everything to gain if you eliminate the Chinese army. Ive mentioned this so many times, yet you come back and ask the same question over and over.

Its in your best interests to keep in touch of reality. You can change your perception but reality remains the same.


Well then, what if he is a Chinese , what is he is not?


He is pro-China, I want to know why. It would better explain his bias towards China and slightly towards Japan(although i might be confusing him with someone else). Hell he might not be asian at all, could be a British jew supporting a new world order.


I came through your relpy and find your statement concerns about my personal interests and other 1.2 billion Chinese s right of speak.

You just simply rule out 1/5 of world s population s right of voice just by claiming that they are communist brainwashed and therefore all their statements are invalid. So you can end every losing debate with Chinese in that manner.


You can speak whenever you want. What I said is the US should and does want to bomb China back into the 80s. If you dont like it by all means disagree. One thing is for certain, if we want China gone, China disappears.


but whether we are brainwashed or not ,our abilitys of reasoning and logic is not lower than any other and perhaps much better than yours.


If you are brainwashed you have no reasoning or logic.


besides ,can you prove all your idea and oppion is based on personal perceiving and indepent thinking while not some captalism way of brainwashing?.And if so, How much credibility do your indepent idea have?

Your president came and say: US China cooperate on countering terrist and regional peace

and you say:bomb the hell out of us ,and whom should I believe?


AIPAC is protecting China for now, but the echelon of the US military wants China to go.

The China men in your government are utterly convinced people around the world buy your bullshit.

I think I'll skip the 2nd warning and award you a permanent stay in the sin bin without any further ado.

/GD

[phreeky]

Wow, that was "interesting".

So what's the realistic navy situation of these two nations and the chance anything would play out over water? Subs? Or are they limited to surface craft and therefore South Koreas (with help from Allies no doubt) air dominance make any navy activity practically void?

[sgtgunn]

Ist or 2nd tank Adrian.

2nd Tank. I was an assistant operations sergeant in S-3. Our commander was Lt. Col. (Admin: Name deleted for security and privacy reasons)

Adrian

[Thery]

Wow, that was "interesting".

So what's the realistic navy situation of these two nations and the chance anything would play out over water? Subs? Or are they limited to surface craft and therefore South Koreas (with help from Allies no doubt) air dominance make any navy activity practically void?

Sea battle also in SK favor, although NK produce their own small subs and have lots small boats, but I seriously doubting their effectiveness because of their size and weapon. The best NK navy can do is just lay some mine to stop ROKN landing troops and/or harass the south a bit.

I remember ROKN use to be pleased with helicopters’ ability against small fast craft, therefore they introduced quite a lot of them. But I did not notice any further development or introduced newer model at that area, are ROKN change their focuses? Or their found something better?

[Waylander]

@Adrian
Very nice summary of the defense situation along the DMZ.
I think the problem of the terrain has been mentioned here before but maybe it got lost during incognitos little rant attack... ;)
I am though a little bit secptical if MLRS is going to have the same effect against the hardened NK artillery positions like against Saddam's mostly towed artillery positioned in the open desert.

I also have a question which is especially directed at the aviation experts here.
How much would stormy, bad weather hinder the USAF, ROKAF (And propably JSDAF) in countering an offensive move of NK forces?
Maybe just 3 days of bad weather would allow NK forces to bring down significant forces and would make a defense by ROKA units much harder (I think you are right that there is just one US HBCT left).
If they reach the cities with significant forces it could be much harder to bomb them out again and the blood toll could be huge.

[Chrom]

I also have a question which is especially directed at the aviation experts here.
How much would stormy, bad weather hinder the USAF, ROKAF (And propably JSDAF) in countering an offensive move of NK forces?
Maybe just 3 days of bad weather would allow NK forces to bring down significant forces and would make a defense by ROKA units much harder (I think you are right that there is just one US HBCT left).
If they reach the cities with significant forces it could be much harder to bomb them out again and the blood toll could be huge. I'm not aviation expert - but i'll try to make some points ;)

1. Bad weather will certainly affect airforce - escpeceally close support and recon components.

2. In direct engagement (when reconing is provided by ground forces) airforces would be able to provide good support, some with artillery.

3. As much as i know, there is no sand storms in Korea. So bad weather is just usuall rains and winds. Modern bombers and fighter-bombers shoud be able to detect & prevent major NK technic movements by SAR radar modes. Radars are much less affected by bad weather.

4. I dont belive NK will be able to mount successfull offencive in any weather, but they certainly can inflict major losses to SK military and civilian sector with artillery and MLRS.

[eckherl]

@Adrian
Very nice summary of the defense situation along the DMZ.
I think the problem of the terrain has been mentioned here before but maybe it got lost during incognitos little rant attack... ;)
I am though a little bit secptical if MLRS is going to have the same effect against the hardened NK artillery positions like against Saddam's mostly towed artillery positioned in the open desert.

I also have a question which is especially directed at the aviation experts here.
How much would stormy, bad weather hinder the USAF, ROKAF (And propably JSDAF) in countering an offensive move of NK forces?
Maybe just 3 days of bad weather would allow NK forces to bring down significant forces and would make a defense by ROKA units much harder (I think you are right that there is just one US HBCT left).
If they reach the cities with significant forces it could be much harder to bomb them out again and the blood toll could be huge.

Adrian is correct in regards to the current 2nd ID structure.

[swerve]

I'm not aviation expert - but i'll try to make some points ;)

1. Bad weather will certainly affect airforce - escpeceally close support and recon components.

2. In direct engagement (when reconing is provided by ground forces) airforces would be able to provide good support, some with artillery.

3. As much as i know, there is no sand storms in Korea. So bad weather is just usuall rains and winds. Modern bombers and fighter-bombers shoud be able to detect & prevent major NK technic movements by SAR radar modes. Radars are much less affected by bad weather.

4. I dont belive NK will be able to mount successfull offencive in any weather, but they certainly can inflict major losses to SK military and civilian sector with artillery and MLRS.

1. A large proportion of the N. Korean artillery is in fixed emplacements, some in tunnels. These should have almost all been mapped: as long as aircraft can fly, such fixed targets can be attacked with GPS-guided weapons. South Korea has JDAM.

2. & 3. Yes. Artillery can also be located with those radars (the name escapes me for the moment) which track back the trajectory of the projectile.

4. Agreed. I would expect some penetrations of S. Korean defences, largely because N. Korea has so much artillery & infantry that it'll be able to saturate defences in some sectors, but those penetrations will soon be cut off from supplies, & reduced to infantry trying to live off what they carry & can scavenge. There could be a lot of casualties dealing with those infantry.

One thing that interests me is the reaction of N. Korean troops to entering S. Korea. They might believe the first S. Korean village they enter is some sort of pimped-up fake to fool them (doubtless their commissars will say that), but they'll soon realise that the average S. Korean lives in extraordinary luxury compared to them. Will their discipline survive? Will they stop to loot? Will they become demoralised?

[eckherl]

2nd Tank. I was an assistant operations sergeant in S-3. Our commander was Lt. Col. (Admin: Name deleted for security and privacy reasons)
Adrian

I served one of my tours in A co 2nd tank, other tours were with 1st tank in the same bloody company, (Charlie don`t surf).

[evripide]

Sea battle also in SK favor, although NK produce their own small subs and have lots small boats, but I seriously doubting their effectiveness because of their size and weapon. The best NK navy can do is just lay some mine to stop ROKN landing troops and/or harass the south a bit.

I remember ROKN use to be pleased with helicopters’ ability against small fast craft, therefore they introduced quite a lot of them. But I did not notice any further development or introduced newer model at that area, are ROKN change their focuses? Or their found something better?

I know there are several development project of new helis. Eurocopters (Puma) may be a partner of one of these. However, there is no current introducing new helis in the navy, even though they need a considerable number of helis for LPH Dokdo. There are three possibilities. Not enough budget, waiting for the new development, or both.

[Chrom]

One thing that interests me is the reaction of N. Korean troops to entering S. Korea. They might believe the first S. Korean village they enter is some sort of pimped-up fake to fool them (doubtless their commissars will say that), but they'll soon realise that the average S. Korean lives in extraordinary luxury compared to them. Will their discipline survive? Will they stop to loot? Will they become demoralised? I'm sure average NK citizen know pretty well what SK citizens are richer. Sure, they dont know how much they are richer. Still i think NK discipline will certainly survive - becouse they are not complete idiots and understand what surrending after starting big war will do nothing good to them, and they will not magicaly start living just as good as SK. While by continue the war and winning they could certainly increase they economical situation and prove not everything they done was wrong.

[swerve]

I know there are several development project of new helis. Eurocopters (Puma) may be a partner of one of these. However, there is no current introducing new helis in the navy, even though they need a considerable number of helis for LPH Dokdo. There are three possibilities. Not enough budget, waiting for the new development, or both.

The Sea Skua armed Lynx are still operational, aren't they? A good combination against FACs. And S. Korea has air-launched Penguin, though I'm not sure what platform they use.

[ROCK45]

swerve
And S. Korea has air-launched Penguin, though I'm not sure what platform they use.

Different platforms
The Penguin (AGM-119) missile is a passive IR-seeker anti-ship missile. Usually fired off of Bell 412, Seasprite, Seahawk/Blackhawk, and Super Lynx helicopters, F-16, and some naval vessels. It is built by Kongsberd Defence & Aerospace of Norway.


http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/agm-119.htm
http://www.navalhelicopterassn.org/penguin.htm

I found another SK anti-ship missile
South Korean Navy SSM-700K Sea Star Anti-Ship Missile
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/south-korean-navy-ssm-700k-sea-star-anti-ship-missile/33498256

[Waylander]

1. A large proportion of the N. Korean artillery is in fixed emplacements, some in tunnels. These should have almost all been mapped: as long as aircraft can fly, such fixed targets can be attacked with GPS-guided weapons. South Korea has JDAM.

2. & 3. Yes. Artillery can also be located with those radars (the name escapes me for the moment) which track back the trajectory of the projectile.

4. Agreed. I would expect some penetrations of S. Korean defences, largely because N. Korea has so much artillery & infantry that it'll be able to saturate defences in some sectors, but those penetrations will soon be cut off from supplies, & reduced to infantry trying to live off what they carry & can scavenge. There could be a lot of casualties dealing with those infantry.

One thing that interests me is the reaction of N. Korean troops to entering S. Korea. They might believe the first S. Korean village they enter is some sort of pimped-up fake to fool them (doubtless their commissars will say that), but they'll soon realise that the average S. Korean lives in extraordinary luxury compared to them. Will their discipline survive? Will they stop to loot? Will they become demoralised?


1. I think the question is if they have enough JDAMs, available, if they don't need them for other high value targets and if they can fly sorties fast enough to take out a considerable number of arty positions.

2.&3. For sure artillery is going to work in nearly every weather and I am sure that SK has good fire finder equipment. But after I experienced some Taifuns in that area by myself and have seen how bad a snow storm can get during winter on the Korean Peninsula I doubt that bad weather (I am not speaking about some wind and rain...;) ) can be taken so lightly.
If I was NK I would defenitely wait for weather which reduces air operations as much as possible.

4. Jup, agreed.


Your point about looting and wondering NK soldiers is very interesting.
When I think about it I have the feeling that this might really be a shock for the average NK soldier.
The NK citizens are the most shielded people on this planet when it comes to informations about their own and other countries.

[Grand Danois]

Wrt 1., JDAMs are not the bottleneck, as US stocks can be flown and shipped in and US inventory is in 5 if not 6 digit numbers. I'd consider the JDAM very important on the Korean Peninsula, as much of the NK arty is fixed to their dug in positions (caves), which makes a B-1B pass a high impact event. The number of jets and the weather is another issue, but one should take into account that air power, say from CSGs of NK and Japan can work in the sectors not severely affected. Weather curbs NK activity levels as well. Anyway, the number of jets available would be the limiter imv.

[sgtgunn]

I served one of my tours in A co 2nd tank, other tours were with 1st tank in the same bloody company, (Charlie don`t surf).

No kidding? What years were you there?

Adrian

[sgtgunn]

@Adrian
Very nice summary of the defense situation along the DMZ.
I think the problem of the terrain has been mentioned here before but maybe it got lost during incognitos little rant attack... ;)
I am though a little bit secptical if MLRS is going to have the same effect against the hardened NK artillery positions like against Saddam's mostly towed artillery positioned in the open desert.

I also have a question which is especially directed at the aviation experts here.
How much would stormy, bad weather hinder the USAF, ROKAF (And propably JSDAF) in countering an offensive move of NK forces?
Maybe just 3 days of bad weather would allow NK forces to bring down significant forces and would make a defense by ROKA units much harder (I think you are right that there is just one US HBCT left).
If they reach the cities with significant forces it could be much harder to bomb them out again and the blood toll could be huge.


Hmmm... I posted a reply to this a couple of hours ago and it never popped up. This happen often?

Adrian

[eckherl]

No kidding? What years were you there?

Adrian

When you have the ability to PM then we can talk, we may of crossed paths before.

[sgtgunn]

When you have the ability to PM then we can talk, we may of crossed paths before.

Ok. Sounds like a plan.

Adrian

[Firehorse]

Seoul rethinks US's marching orders (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/JA30Dg01.html)
If a second Korean war were to break out, the US would have to take charge of a vast infusion of air and naval power and bring in much new armor and artillery. South Korea, however, would supply most of the ground forces, at least initially.

Does the US military have enough of those, without compromising SENTCOM AOR? My guestimate is a NO!

[kato]

Does the US military have enough of those, without compromising SENTCOM AOR? My guestimate is a NO!

The US military, including the National Guard Units, has somewhere between 6,000 and 8,000 Abrams. Should definitely leave a couple thousand for Korea.

"Modern" artillery is a problem with the US anyway, what with them relying on the M109 (even though it's the A6, it's still a M109 at heart).

[eckherl]

Does the US military have enough of those, without compromising SENTCOM AOR? My guestimate is a NO!

All initial ground combat will most likely belong solely to the ROK ground units with U.S Commanders in overall control of the big picture so to speak, if the war was to drag out then I could envision 8th Army shipping ground units in to offer assistance. Our air and naval assetts will play a major factor in tipping the scales in favor for ROK. I think you under estimate our committment and capabilities, do not let Iraq and Afhganistan fool you we do not need boots on the ground in this region to fight the North Koreans.

[eckherl]

The US military, including the National Guard Units, has somewhere between 6,000 and 8,000 Abrams. Should definitely leave a couple thousand for Korea.

"Modern" artillery is a problem with the US anyway, what with them relying on the M109 (even though it's the A6, it's still a M109 at heart).

The Paladin is still quite effective at the current time but yes she is a old faithfull dog that has lost her bite to the likes of PZH2000 and Bravehearts.

M1 series tanks would not play a major factor in this potential conflict, even the ROK will be hard pressed to find enough safe passages to get all of theirs moving in a offensive poster.

[Firehorse]

Then what are those 29,000 (in ROK alone, besides those marines in Okinawa, Japan) troops are there for?

[Grand Danois]

Then what are those 29,000 (in ROK alone, besides those marines in Okinawa, Japan) troops are there for?

To make sure that if NK attacks again, the US will get involved.

[Waylander]

There is exactly one US heavy brigade combat team of ground troops still in Korea.
And they the bumper which makes sure that the US is going to enter the war if NK attacks SK.
I am not saying that they are not going to fight with skills and valor but they are still just one brigade.

I expect the US to fly in their ready brigade very quickly and whoever is available of their lighter units (82nd, 101st, 25th, 10th,...) additonally to the available MEUs.

[eckherl]

Then what are those 29,000 (in ROK alone, besides those marines in Okinawa, Japan) troops are there for?

There were plans to eventually make them available for other theaters of operations, our agreement with the ROK should and can be modified due to the capabilities of ROKs ground forces, we have been for the recent years been looking for an excuse to pull them out.

With President Lee`s pro U.S attitude and his dismay for North Korea it will be interesting to see how our alliance may change again, we will see if he is successful in convincing us to leave our troops there.

[Firehorse]

I heard that before, but even having 1/5 that number would ensure the same result! After all, oficially the UN is calling the shots there, since there is armistice in place, not a peace threaty! So, the US would be excused if they decide to leave just a token number of personnel e.g. liason, logistics, intel, DMZ presence, and AD/security units, given a huge strain elsewhere.

[eckherl]

There is exactly one US heavy brigade combat team of ground troops still in Korea.
And they the bumper which makes sure that the US is going to enter the war if NK attacks SK.
I am not saying that they are not going to fight with skills and valor but they are still just one brigade.

I expect the US to fly in their ready brigade very quickly and whoever is available of their lighter units (82nd, 101st, 25th, 10th,...) additonally to the available MEUs.

Oh yes - the ride to the sound of the guns brigade, our motto.
We in the 2nd ID were called a speed bump for the North Koreans,:D you would see the the U.S Marine units from Okinawa and the 25th ID out of hoola skirt land get there rather quickly, equipment is already staged for them.

[eckherl]

Here is a few photos showing the amount of room for manuver that armored units would be faced with in a offensive posture.

[lobbie111]

This would be the most bloodiest war ever fought if it took place...You would need a couple of thousand tanks to replenish the intitial losses faced by your forces in the case of NK launched a preemtive artillery strike. Although these artillery will not last very long after they have fired their first couple of shots, they would be dete4cted and destroyed by counter battery fire, missiles and aircraft strikes. NK does not have a hope IMHO of maintaining air superiority. After there intitial strikes are defeated the ROK and US forces will totally overwhelm any remaining NK units.

[Waylander]

I have some doubt about the ability of the US and ROK forces to defeat the NK artillery right at the beginning of the conflict.
We are talking about a lot of barrels and rockets targeting the south.
Many of them out of hardened bunkers and prepared, fortified firing positions.

One needs a huge load of very accurate (and lucky) counterfire and aircraft sorties to silence them.

Another problem is that if you put nearly all your available guns on counterfire duty your frontline units loose their artillery support. The same with available strike aircrafts.
Makes the plan to destroy the majority of the NK forces during the approach by using artillery and air assets a little bit obsolete.
Trying to get enough guns and aircrafts into action during the first days to attack approaching NK units, destroy the NK artillery and give support to ROK and US ground units seems to be a little bit too optimistic to me.

[lobbie111]

I have some doubt about the ability of the US and ROK forces to defeat the NK artillery right at the beginning of the conflict.
We are talking about a lot of barrels and rockets targeting the south.
Many of them out of hardened bunkers and prepared, fortified firing positions.

One needs a huge load of very accurate (and lucky) counterfire and aircraft sorties to silence them.

Another problem is that if you put nearly all your available guns on counterfire duty your frontline units loose their artillery support. The same with available strike aircrafts.
Makes the plan to destroy the majority of the NK forces during the approach by using artillery and air assets a little bit obsolete.
Trying to get enough guns and aircrafts into action during the first days to attack approaching NK units, destroy the NK artillery and give support to ROK and US ground units seems to be a little bit too optimistic to me.

I wasn't refering to the speed and their ability to take down the artillery but as just about everyone has stated in the static bunker thread that they would be like ducks to the slaughter given the right ammunition, doesn't matter how quickly they do it, just that they are already known positions and are not mobile if they do end up being attacked.

[adal]

my opinion is with out the intervention of the us and china i think the north would destroy the south.
there are tens and thousands off artillary pieces aimed at the south these would lay waste to the cities off the south in a moment straight after the north will send in there large hordes off troops and tanks may be out dated but in large numbers they would role over the south forces itll be a bloody battle but the south will fail, the north koreans have large numbers off long range missiles aswell as the anti ship missile the silk worm which would even be able to destroy some off the biggist ships the us has.

[ROCK45]

adal
tens and thousands off artillary pieces aimed at the south these would lay waste to the cities
Besides Soul how many big cities do you think are in artillery range? Don't you think the south might fire back a little?

after the north will send in there large hordes off troops and tanks may be out dated
What are these hordes of troops eating while there waiting where the US wouldn't see or notice the build up? Where is the fuel coming from to fill the tanks that haven't upgrade in years?

the north koreans have large numbers off long range missiles aswell as the anti ship missile the silk worm which would even be able to destroy some off the biggist ships the us has.

How would the North Koreans find targets for these missiles? Any radar turn on would itself become a target. Command and control would be taken out and little orders would be getting through to most units after the first hour or so. US and South Korean aircraft would be tripping over each to hit the easy target with no air protection and 20 year old SAMs guarding them. Using stand-off weapons nothing has to get that close to all these deadly NK missiles in most cases.

[Ozzy Blizzard]

my opinion is with out the intervention of the us and china i think the north would destroy the south.
there are tens and thousands off artillary pieces aimed at the south these would lay waste to the cities off the south in a moment straight after the north will send in there large hordes off troops and tanks may be out dated but in large numbers they would role over the south forces itll be a bloody battle but the south will fail, the north koreans have large numbers off long range missiles aswell as the anti ship missile the silk worm which would even be able to destroy some off the biggist ships the us has.

The artillary implacements in the north are just meant inflict as much damage as possible on the northen cities in the south. They are suppose to inflict as much damage on civilian area's as possible becasue they are a form of deturrence. They would do little to actually aid an advance south.

As for the North walking over the south, well thats a pretty low probability IMO. The North just dont have the logistical capability to sustain a large scale mechanised advance south, hell they cant even feed their civilian population. in addition to that ROK air power would devistate NK's C3ISR capability, and their ability to maneuver would be extremely limited. On a unit for unit basis the SK's are much better. Any advance south would peter out in the face of huge ROK firepower + mobility or their logistical train couldnt sustain it, and lead to huge losses. If PROK left their fortifications and moved south the ROK's would probably be happy about it, it would expose them in the open and on the move to air strikes and PGM arty rounds. The commies would be cut to pieces without US air power. With US air power it woudnt be pretty.

[Firehorse]

What do you think of this? -
N Korea Military Tactics In A War With US (http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm)

IMO, those are good points- US/ROK superiority may not be enough to win in Korea. The USN/MC captured an old Korean flag, without opening Korea to the outsiders, but NK captured USS Pueblo (http://www.militarytimes.com/news/2007/10/navy_korea_flag_071010w/) almost 100 years later!

http://www.homeofheroes.com/wallofhonor/korea1871/5_conclusion.html

http://www.shinmiyangyo.org/sujagireturn2.html

[eckherl]

What do you think of this? -
N Korea Military Tactics In A War With US (http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm)

IMO, those are good points- US/ROK superiority may not be enough to win in Korea. The USN/MC captured an old Korean flag, without opening Korea to the outsiders, but NK captured USS Pueblo (http://www.militarytimes.com/news/2007/10/navy_korea_flag_071010w/) almost 100 years later!

http://www.homeofheroes.com/wallofhonor/korea1871/5_conclusion.html

http://www.shinmiyangyo.org/sujagireturn2.html

I think that the author has overestimated uncle Kims capabilities or he is full of BS propaganda, he doesn`t even know the capabilities of North Koreas weapons systems. Plus he pretty much has failed to give alot of thought on what ROKs response will be. But yes - I for one do not under estimate what they are capable of, they are not starving and their tanks are not rusting away in motorpools with no petro as some people may think. The reason why the civilians are starving and cannot keep warm is because the military has priority over everything in that country.

Who gives a crap about the USS Pueblo,if they want to keep it then let them.

[Firehorse]

Yes, military 1st policy, in their worlview, is to ensure that they have means to defend themselves, to allow their independent existence. But this isn't unique- earlier, Pakistanis also said that they will get nukes even if that means eating grass!
I don't agree with the last sentence. That ship has a great symbolic/propaganda value to both sides- that's why it's still commisioned in the USN, and NK won't return it that easily. IMO, they will keep her until a peace treaty and diplomatic relations are concluded/established with the USA.

[eckherl]

Yes, military 1st policy, in their worlview, is to ensure that they have means to defend themselves, to allow their independent existance. But this isn't unique- earlier, Pakistanis also said that they will get nukes even if that means eating grass!
I don't agree with the last sentence. That ship has a great symbolic/propaganda value to both sides- that's why it's still commisioned in the USN, and NK won't return it that easily. IMO, they will keep her until a peace treaty and diplomatic relations are concluded/established with the USA.

Well if they think by using the USS Pueblo for leverage in a peace treaty will help them then it is only wishful thinking on their part, they have had it for this long and we have pretty written her off even though the U.S Navy still carries her on their books. They have done other nasty things also to the U.S military, if you get a chance read up on the Panmunjom ax murder incident as a example, that set my hatred towards them. If we ever can take uncle Kim alive I hope that when we turn him back over to his country that we stipulate that they use a tree in that area to introduce him to the hangmans noose.

[Firehorse]

No, I think you misread them. They aren't going to use it to get a treaty. They'll return it as a good will gesture to show that this state of war is finaly over. We are talking of a very different culture and mindset. I don't know much about that DMZ incident you are referring to, but IMO they may have considered the removing of a tree as a violation by the US side. Speaking of trees, (I'm not a treehugger, but do love nature) I hope that some day DMZ will be turned to a nature conservation area!

[eckherl]

No, I think you misread them. They aren't going to use it to get a treaty. They'll return it as a good will gesture to show that this state of war is finaly over. We are talking of a very different culture and mindset. I don't know much about that DMZ incident you are referring to, but IMO they may have considered the removing of a tree as a violation by the US side. Speaking of trees, (I'm not a treehugger, but do love nature) I hope that some day DMZ will be turned to a nature conservation area!

No - they killed an American officer because they stated that the dear old leader Kim Ill Sung planted that tree personally, that tree was in the way of a observation post and it was not a violation to cut it down.

And actually there is all kinds of wildlife along the DMZ such as tigers roaming around in no mans land with other animals that people thought were pretty much gone in Korea.

Either way we will find out the next chapter with North Korea will be, they are already stalling on the nuke deal and ROK has a newly elected hardline president who has pretty much stated that no more rewards for bad behavior.

[weasel1962]

North Korea will not have air protection in any future misadventure in the south.

Just looking at "at-hand" assets,
24 A10s (25th FS) = 576 mavericks
60 F15s (ROKAF) = 720 JDAMs
60 AH1S (ROKA) = 480 TOWs
48 AH-64 (US Army) = 768 Hellfires

Total: 2,544 targets per sortie.

Haven't counted, F5s, F16s, F4s + reinforcements from Jpn, PacAF, fleet, B2s etc. The KPA simply doesn't provide enough targets.

It'd probably take less than a month to complete a conventional invasion of NK.

[Firehorse]

..that tree was in the way of a observation post and it was not a violation to cut it down.
So, I'm lost here- who tried to cut it down? If it was not a violation, why did they attack Americans, instead of talking it over?
Yes, I heard from a former US soldier who personally saw a tiger killing a deer there- the Korean tiger thought to be extinct, but maybe not!

[eckherl]

So, I'm lost here- who tried to cut it down? If it was not a violation, why did they attack Americans, instead of talking it over?
Yes, I heard from a former US soldier who personally saw a tiger killing a deer there- the Korean tiger thought to be extinct, but maybe not!

The UNC security force went out to cut down a tree that was blocking their view of the North Korean side near the bridge of no return, while attempting to do this they were jumped by about thirty North Korean soldiers with axes, this UNC force of 12 civilian workers and security guards was lead by two American officers, both were killed, they were unarmed due to weapons restrictions in that area. The North Koreans stated that they were upset that we would chop down a tree planted personally by Kim ll Sung and viewed it as a insult to their leader. If you can find it, read the book written by Maj. Wayne A. Kirkbride called DMZ, excellant reading.

[weasel1962]

North Korean "deadly" Air Force Fighters:

100+ Mig 17
100+ Mig 19
200-250+ Mig-21
50+ Mig 23 (acquired 1985)
40 Mig 29 (first acquired 1985)

[Waylander]

I expect choppers to have a very hard time if they want to do anything else than defensive/delaying actions in support of the ground troops.

The low level airspace of NK is going to be so full of metal from AAA that IMHO one cannot expect Apaches or Cobras to conduct deep strike operations over NK territory.
The same goes for fastmovers which want to get low. PGMs from higher altitude is the way to go. Anything else is going to be risky.

And while it is nice to count the possible maximum number of PGMs the real hits are not going to match this figure. And there are a lot of possible targets.

As I stated before one has to fly sorties against the NK artillery, against the NK chain of supply, directly against advancing NK forces and at the beginning one has to fly SEAD/DEAD missions to surpress/destroy the NK SAM shield.
They might not have the newest equipment and the USAF and ROKAF shouldn't have that many problems to disable their SAM shield but it has to be done reducing the sorties which can be directed directly against other NK assets.
And there are going to be CAP and escort missions as well as wild weasel missions to support the strike packages even if most of the air and SAM threat is disabled.

All this is reducing the overall amount of sorties directed against the imminent threat of NK artillery and ground forces.
Add to that reduced air power due to bad weather (because NK isn't going to attack in bright sunshine) and one might have real big problems to stop the NK advance during the early phase of a new NK attack onto SK. Could be some really bloody days till the NK attack is stopped and even more bloody if they manage to reach some cities.

[Grand Danois]

I expect choppers to have a very hard time if they want to do anything else than defensive/delaying actions in support of the ground troops.

The low level airspace of NK is going to be so full of metal from AAA that IMHO one cannot expect Apaches or Cobras to conduct deep strike operations over NK territory.
The same goes for fastmovers which want to get low. PGMs from higher altitude is the way to go. Anything else is going to be risky.

And while it is nice to count the possible maximum number of PGMs the real hits are not going to match this figure. And there are a lot of possible targets.

As I stated before one has to fly sorties against the NK artillery, against the NK chain of supply, directly against advancing NK forces and at the beginning one has to fly SEAD/DEAD missions to surpress/destroy the NK SAM shield.
They might not have the newest equipment and the USAF and ROKAF shouldn't have that many problems to disable their SAM shield but it has to be done reducing the sorties which can be directed directly against other NK assets.
And there are going to be CAP and escort missions as well as wild weasel missions to support the strike packages even if most of the air and SAM threat is disabled.

All this is reducing the overall amount of sorties directed against the imminent threat of NK artillery and ground forces.
Add to that reduced air power due to bad weather (because NK isn't going to attack in bright sunshine) and one might have real big problems to stop the NK advance during the early phase of a new NK attack onto SK. Could be some really bloody days till the NK attack is stopped and even more bloody if they manage to reach some cities.

I believe the bolded part was directed at me. ;) I only wanted to point out that inventory numbers was not the bottleneck. Sat guidance is all weather (I realize you're talking severe conditions), so overcast is not a showstopper wrt fixed positions. Also, a B-1B takes 24 GBU-31 JDAM 2k lbs bombs internally, which reasonably quickly racks up the number of hardened aimpoints hit.

But I do agree with your conclusion. It's just the finer points I'm being pedantic about. :p

[weasel1962]

That's why the US Army pulled back from the border. The whole border region is meant to be a killing zone ~50km in depth.

Once North Korea starts moving any assets (and it will need to) into & across the DMZ, its going to be fair game for the AF and army aviation.

No one bothers to plan for a North Korea invasion. Its absolutely meaningless. Despite all public US announcements about bringing democracy to xyx. Its a waste of time and effort. May have been worth something in 1950 but today,50,000 sq miles of North Korean rock and sand is not even worth one human life.

Containment has been extremely effective in the case of North Korea.

If however, hypothetically, the US does intend to invade North Korea, AAA isn't going to be a deterrance. There's just too much cluster/precision munitions capabilities to exploit.

First, the USAF will shift the F15/A10 units from coast to bases in SK, Jpn. The CVGs will plot their courses.

F-15s & F-18s will establish high level air superiority capabilities with a few F16s/18s focussing on mid-altitude wild weasel missions to take out the abysmal SA-2 & 5s radar sites.

JSTARs/Global hawks will start flying at altitudes far beyond AAA ranges to identify AAA sites along the routes (with satellite intel as well).

They will assess the least defended route along the breath of Kaesong to Kumgangsan and then blast a narrow route all the way to Pyongyang with everything from A10s to B2s. Won't even need choppers except to ride shotgun.

NK Assets outside of the route that move towards the route will be interdicted in designated killzones. That takes away a significant proportion of AAA capabilities because of the dispersal.

After OIF, I don't think that's a capability beyond the USAF and ROKAF. Kim has a legitimate fear of US might (although a misjudge reading of US intentions).

[Waylander]

I believe the bolded part was directed at me. ;) I only wanted to point out that inventory numbers was not the bottleneck. Sat guidance is all weather (I realize you're talking severe conditions), so overcast is not a showstopper wrt fixed positions. Also, a B-1B takes 24 GBU-31 JDAM 2k lbs bombs internally, which reasonably quickly racks up the number of hardened aimpoints hit.

But I do agree with your conclusion. It's just the finer points I'm being pedantic about. :p

No it was more directed at weasels counting of available maximum number of PGMs.
I agree that just overcast weather is not going to save NK asstes from airstrikes. I was really thinking about some bad ass Taifun or Snowstorm limiting the ability to fly sorties from SK airbases.

The Bones are defenitely going to be an important asset. One just has to look at the recent conflicts. IIRC the B1-Bs delivered >20% of the bombload during Kosovo, OIF, in A-stan, etc.

And I don't want to defenitely rule out that Nk forces are bloodily stopped by ROKA forces and USA reinforcements which are heavily supported by ROKA, USN and USAF air support.
I just think that there is the possibility of NK being able to perform a relatively successufull offensive during the early phase of a war if some circumstances play into their hands.

Maybe one should even consider a possible NK attack while the US is busy to perform concentrated airstrikes onto another country like for example Iran.

[Grand Danois]

Sorry, my bad. I wasn't paying attention.

[Chino]

NK will forever be the buffer China needs to counter US/foreign powers in East Asia. With NK gone, China will have American forces at her doorstep.

NK is actually 100 times more important to China than Taiwan.

Taiwan is just a "pride" issue. But NK is a security issue. So whatever scenario for NK, factor in the 100% certainty of Chinese intervention.

[swerve]

NK will forever be the buffer China needs to counter US/foreign powers in East Asia. With NK gone, China will have American forces at her doorstep.

Not if Korean unification is tied to the withdrawal of US forces. China would probably see that as a gain.

[Waylander]

Mmmh, if NK attacks on their own without the slightest consultation of their Chinese allies I can imagine that China leaves them alone.
Even if this results in a unified and democratic Korea I could imagine that it doesn't need much pressure to make Korea throw the remaining US forces out of a unified Korea.

And the idea of a unified Korea on their border without US troops in it might be a better case for China than intervening into a bloody war it didn't want and which could result in a much bigger catastrophe (two nuclear powers fighting directly against each other).


And a unified Korea is going to have enoug problems with integrating the "stoneage"-north to be busy for the next couple of decades.

[swerve]

Waylander: exactly. I can imagine China reminding the S. Koreans & Americans that the troops occupying up to the border had better be Korean, to keep tension down, or even occupying border areas while loudly announcing that it's purely temporary, to restore order & bring in humanitarian aid pending a handover to a unified Korea, which they'll then suggest might be an opportune time for the withdrawal of all non-Korean forces, both their own and any others that might be around . . . . But I don't think they'd go further than that. They don't want the burden of a collapsed N. Korea under their management, & certainly don't want to fight the USA & S. Korea for it. As long as the US army is kept well away from the Yalu river, & the S. Koreans don't fortify the border when they reach it, they'll be content.

[Firehorse]

If the NK was to attack the ROK 1st, and moving across the DMZ, they would give very good reason for the PRC to intervene, ostensibly on their side &/or strike them from behind- either way, I don't see NK free of Chinese "advisers and volunteers". How many days can NK fight w/o Chinese fuel and food stuffs?

[eckherl]

If the NK was to attack the ROK 1st, and moving across the DMZ, they would give very good reason for the PRC to intervene, ostensibly on their side &/or strike them from behind- either way, I don't see NK free of Chinese "advisers and volunteers". How many days can NK fight w/o Chinese fuel and food stuffs?

If North Korea was to be that foolish and attack South Korea why do you think that China will offer them any assistance, you do realize that this ceasefire was brokered with assistance of the United Nations, how do you think that China will be viewed in their eyes, this would ruin them as a nation. And I do not buy into this myth that China cannot have a united Korea on its border, I agree with @Swerve that if they are given gaurantees in regards to U.S forces then their wouldn`t be any issues.

[weasel1962]

Let's see what are the assets that can operate in all weather operations.

F-15K = all weather
AH-1 = all weather
AH-64 = all weather
A-10 = all weather
JDAM = all weather
JSOW = all weather
Maverick = all weather
Hellfire = all weather
Global hawk = all weather
JSTARs = all weather

USFK has had almost 60 years to plan contingencies in Korea. Typhoons & Snowstorms are going to hurt NK ops far more than US/SK ops. Also typhoons don't last very long eg a few days at the most on peak. Also, no one can predict how typhoons move or where snowstorms will appear (at least with sufficient time for planning) and that's not going to help NK planning.

The NKs will also need to mass before any offensive and that's not going to go undetected.

The nightmare scenario is not weather but nukes. The issue there is the delivery method.

[eckherl]

Let's see what are the assets that can operate in all weather operations.

F-15K = all weather
AH-1 = all weather
AH-64 = all weather
A-10 = all weather
JDAM = all weather
JSOW = all weather
Maverick = all weather
Hellfire = all weather
Global hawk = all weather
JSTARs = all weather

USFK has had almost 60 years to plan contingencies in Korea. Typhoons & Snowstorms are going to hurt NK ops far more than US/SK ops. Also typhoons don't last very long eg a few days at the most on peak. Also, no one can predict how typhoons move or where snowstorms will appear (at least with sufficient time for planning) and that's not going to help NK planning.

The NKs will also need to mass before any offensive and that's not going to go undetected.

The nightmare scenario is not weather but nukes. The issue there is the delivery method.

Due to flooding caused by Typhoons in Korea no one will be doing any type of movement. If North Korea was to attack it would happen during the winter months when the ground is frozen.

[Firehorse]

If North Korea was to be that foolish and attack South Korea why do you think that China will offer them any assistance, you do realize that this ceasefire was brokered with assistance of the United Nations, how do you think that China will be viewed in their eyes, this would ruin them as a nation. And I do not buy into this myth that China cannot have a united Korea on its border, I agree with @Swerve that if they are given gaurantees in regards to U.S forces then their wouldn`t be any issues.

I just painted a picture that the PLA could use as a deception to make NK believe that they are on their side.
It may take them a long time to get fully integrated, if at all possible-before we can talk of a "unified" Korea. That process won't be smooth, and China will have to intervene there anyway. For what it's worth, I hope a comparison with Mongolia is in order:
It's been divided into 3 parts by Russia & China-
1. Byryat Autonomous Republic (http://www.unpo.org/member_profile.php?id=12), now part of the RF;
2. Inner Mongolian Automous Region (http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-InnerMon.html), part of the PRC;
3. Mongolian Republic, aka Outer Mongolia, now politically fully independent

The area accepted Manchu rule in 1689, but after the Chinese Revolution of 1911 and the fall of the Manchus in 1912, the northern Mongol princes expelled the Chinese officials and declared independence under the Khutukhtu, or “Living Buddha.”
In 1921, Soviet troops entered the country and facilitated the establishment of a republic by Mongolian revolutionaries in 1924. China also made a claim to the region but was too weak to assert it. Under the 1945 Chinese-Russian Treaty, China agreed to give up Outer Mongolia, which, after a plebiscite, became a nominally independent country.
Allied with the USSR in its dispute with China, Mongolia began mobilizing troops along its borders in 1968 when the two powers became involved in border clashes on the Kazakh-Sinkiang frontier to the west and at the Amur and Ussuri rivers. A 20-year treaty of friendship and cooperation, signed in 1966, entitled Mongolia to call on the USSR for military aid in the event of invasion.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107796.html


So, the outer Mongolia sandwitched between #1 & #2 was a buffer state for both Russian and Chinese Empires, and after WWII and until 1991, for the USSR.
For the PRC, there is a lot more at stake in N. Korea than in Mongolia, for many economic, historic & geopolitical reasons.

[eckherl]

I just painted a picture that the PLA could use as a deception to make NK believe that they are on their side.
It may take them a long time to get fully integrated, if at all possible-before we can talk of a "unified" Korea. That process won't be smooth, and China will have to intervene there anyway. For what it's worth, I hope a comparison with Mongolia is in order:
It's been divided into 3 parts by Russia & China-
1. Byryat Autonomous Republic (http://www.unpo.org/member_profile.php?id=12), now part of the RF;
2. Inner Mongolian Automous Region (http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-InnerMon.html), part of the PRC;
3. Mongolian Republic, aka Outer Mongolia, now politically fully independent



So, the outer Mongolia sandwitched between #1 & #2 was a buffer state for both Russian and Chinese Empires, and after WWII and until 1991, for the USSR.
For the PRC, there is a lot more at stake in N. Korea than in Mongolia, for many economic, historic & geopolitical reasons.

Then that would be total war for China, South Korea and its people would not tolerate any type of Chinese influence. China and the rest of the world is going to have to accept the fact that both South and North Korea belong to each other as one people, no more Chinese, Japanese, Russian or American influence can keep them apart unless all sides are willing to go to total war. China has nothing to worry about with a whole Korea on their border, they have been dealing with the Russians for how long now and surely that is more of a threat to them than a country who will spend the next few decades fixing a very big mess in North Korea, how long did it take Germany after they were reunited as one to get things normalized. South Korea is not arming herself to the teeth for nothing, plus she is a economic power house who will not let any country dictate policy to her when it comes to her best interests including my country. Korea needs to be reunited and treated with respect. China should use caution, Korean people do have bad tempers, they say it is because of their Mongol bloodline.:shudder

[eckherl]

Not if Korean unification is tied to the withdrawal of US forces. China would probably see that as a gain.

Agreed, plus the U.S really doesn`t want to be there any longer, so it would not be really too hard to ask us to leave and be long distance Chingos.:)

[Chino]

Not if Korean unification is tied to the withdrawal of US forces. China would probably see that as a gain.

It remains to be seen if this is even possible, with so much bad blood of hundreds of thousands dead. This is not Germany.

Still, you can trust the Chicom and NK to bargain so hard for a lot of concessions that may make it unacceptable to ROK.

[Chino]

So, the outer Mongolia sandwitched between #1 & #2 was a buffer state for both Russian and Chinese Empires, and after WWII and until 1991, for the USSR.
For the PRC, there is a lot more at stake in N. Korea than in Mongolia, for many economic, historic & geopolitical reasons.

My original post was longer and included a section on "buffer states" of China which I deleted - too many points.

If you look at the map I posted in my original post, look for the following names:
North Korea, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Burma, Vietnam.

These places form a almost complete 360 ring around China. With the exception of Vietnam, the rest are either client states, or under PLA control, or in the case of Vietnam, is kept in check militarily.

From the people who brought you the Great Wall, this is the modern version. A protective ring of buffer states. These places are on hair trigger as far as the paranoid Chinese are concerned.

If anyone is still unsure why the PLA invaded Tibet, here's the reason. Or if any "Free Tibet" hippie think a guitar-strumming pop concert will cause the PLA to pack up and leave, he should stop smoking dem thangs.

[Chino]

Then that would be total war for China, South Korea and its people would not tolerate any type of Chinese influence.

The Chinese know enough not to get involved in Korea in that way. These 2 cultures have thousand years of exchanges, good and bad.


China and the rest of the world is going to have to accept the fact that both South and North Korea belong to each other as one people, no more Chinese, Japanese, Russian or American influence can keep them apart unless all sides are willing to go to total war.


Yes, China has always wanted Korea to be united. But just not under the US-bed partner South Koreans.:D



China has nothing to worry about with a whole Korea on their border, they have been dealing with the Russians for how long now


The geo-political situation on the Russian border is slightly different. Russia and China had border clashes, nothing more serious.

OTOH the Korean peninsula is a powder keg, and it is also the doorway for bad things to happen. On that side China faces ROK, Japan, Taiwan and worse of all, USA.


Korea needs to be reunited and treated with respect. China should use caution, Korean people do have bad tempers, they say it is because of their Mongol bloodline.:shudder

Bad tempers or Mongolian bloodline did not prevent the Koreans from being colonized over and over and over throughout history. Sorry, no one is intimidated by bad tempers. Mongolia, as you already know, is nicely carved up into pieces.

Contrary to what you said, the Chinese have always treated the Koreans as a close relative - the North Koreans that is. There are ethnic Koreans on the Chinese side of the border for generations. (And vice versa.) They have not faced persecution or discrimination. Chinese and Korean cultures are very similar and both are Confucian-based.

[swerve]

If the NK was to attack the ROK 1st, and moving across the DMZ, they would give very good reason for the PRC to intervene, ostensibly on their side &/or strike them from behind- either way, I don't see NK free of Chinese "advisers and volunteers".

Oh no! The PRC will not intervene on North Koreas side. China regards N. Korea as a problem, & S. Korea as a normal state with which it can deal on good terms. It will not, ever, help N. Korea against the south, unless the south attacks.

How many days can NK fight w/o Chinese fuel and food stuffs?

Not many, which is one reason why it'll collapse if it attacks. Chinese supplies will instantly dry up.

[kato]

Although I'd bet on the Army itself having at least three weeks worth in supplies.

[alexsa]

My original post was longer and included a section on "buffer states" of China which I deleted - too many points.

If you look at the map I posted in my original post, look for the following names:
North Korea, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Burma, Vietnam.

.

How do you arrive at Vietnam? China invaded Vietnam in 1979 and from all reports paid for it. They withdraw after 'teaching Vietnam a lesson" but the truth appears that they had performed badly against outnumbered militia forces (a signficant proportion of Vietnamese troops ere in cambodia).

In the 80's Vietnam was a Russian ally and in current times poses a signficant economic challeges to China in some areas. They certainly do not cow tow to China and follow their own path which suggests they are far from a 'buffer state'.

[lobbie111]

We are assuming in this modern world that China will actually support NK if it goes to war, times are changing and maybe China has too...They would probably go the other way...

[Chrom]

We are assuming in this modern world that China will actually support NK if it goes to war, times are changing and maybe China has too...They would probably go the other way...
Yes, China supported NK as counterbalance to USA presence in SK. But in case of open conflict i very much doubt China will give NK anything more than just military supplies of average quality and quantity - if even that. NK became much too insignificant, and China greatly rose in power. As such, China dont need NK now.

[eckherl]

The Chinese know enough not to get involved in Korea in that way. These 2 cultures have thousand years of exchanges, good and bad.



Yes, China has always wanted Korea to be united. But just not under the US-bed partner South Koreans.:D




The geo-political situation on the Russian border is slightly different. Russia and China had border clashes, nothing more serious.

OTOH the Korean peninsula is a powder keg, and it is also the doorway for bad things to happen. On that side China faces ROK, Japan, Taiwan and worse of all, USA.



Bad tempers or Mongolian bloodline did not prevent the Koreans from being colonized over and over and over throughout history. Sorry, no one is intimidated by bad tempers. Mongolia, as you already know, is nicely carved up into pieces.

Contrary to what you said, the Chinese have always treated the Koreans as a close relative - the North Koreans that is. There are ethnic Koreans on the Chinese side of the border for generations. (And vice versa.) They have not faced persecution or discrimination. Chinese and Korean cultures are very similar and both are Confucian-based.

Yes, but that potential bad temper is matched up to a economy that is becoming a powerhouse, ROK is not a poor country like Mongolia. And you are kidding right with the brotherly love between China and Korea, former Soviet influence was more firmly implanted in place in North Korea versus Chinese influence, South Koreans do not trust the Chinese and they do have a dark history in their existance, but on that same note ROK does invest in China and they do have a good relationship, which China would also factor in before letting the balloon go for war, its all about money.

[swerve]

We are assuming in this modern world that China will actually support NK if it goes to war, times are changing and maybe China has too...They would probably go the other way...

Actually, most of us are assuming Firehorse is wrong and China will not support NK, & are baffled by his insistence that China will act against what everyone else sees as its own interests.

[evripide]

Bad tempers or Mongolian bloodline did not prevent the Koreans from being colonized over and over and over throughout history. Sorry, no one is intimidated by bad tempers. Mongolia, as you already know, is nicely carved up into pieces.

Contrary to what you said, the Chinese have always treated the Koreans as a close relative - the North Koreans that is. There are ethnic Koreans on the Chinese side of the border for generations. (And vice versa.) They have not faced persecution or discrimination. Chinese and Korean cultures are very similar and both are Confucian-based.

I don't want to go into 'out of topic' of this thread but I want to mention simply about the facts.

1. there is no evidence of direct genetical Molgolian blood line of Koreans. Well, the two people are similar but compared to other neighbourhoods it is not significantly close. Though many Korean people believe the close relation of Mongolians, Japanese and north-eastern ethnic groups of China are closer genetically.

2. In Chinese history, Korea was continually colonised but it is a political term. There was no direct governmental control of China but there were political relations with feudalism. For example, did Holy Roman Empire colonise the western european countries? no. But Politically, it was respected. The classical diplomatic relation is exaggerated by China. There was no residential chinese colonialist in korea. Korea had its own independent government, army, and economy. Without diplomatic emissary, there was no interaction between them. Even trade was only accepted by following the emissary. The only exception in Korean history is Ching Dynasty's Yuan Shikai's intervention between 1884-1894. But it was not the internal control but the diplomatic counter action against Japan. Of course Ching was defeated by Japan soon. In fact, China is colonised by Hun, Mongolians, Manchurians, etc. throughout the history in terms of residential movement and direct political control.

3. Usually, Chinese think Korean culture is close to their culture but Koreans do not agree with it. According to current Chinese policy, every ethinic group and culture within the current boudary is 'Chinese.' Therefore, Chinese think 'asian culture' is chinese. From Uighur and Tibetan to Korean and Manchurian culture, even Thai culture (Dali) are considered as a part of Chinese culture. It is useful method to control the big country. Nevertheless, neighbour countries use different language, clothes, housing, and food from 80% of Chinese, Han.

Evri

[Chino]

In the 80's Vietnam was a Russian ally ....


"China achieved a strategic victory by minimizing the future possibility of a two-front war against the USSR and Vietnam."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm

The above quote paints for you the very desperate situation back when China was skirmishing with Russian military in the north, and Vietnam in the south. Putting one and one together, it is not hard for China to arrive at the conclusion that something much bigger was afoot.


China invaded Vietnam in 1979 and from all reports paid for it. They withdraw after 'teaching Vietnam a lesson" but the truth appears that they had performed badly against outnumbered militia forces


If "body count" is the only measure of success or failure, then, shall we declare US the victor of the Vietnam War and Russia the victor of the Afghanistan War....?

That the PLA's performance was poor is undoubted. But you must see from the POV of "war being an extension of diplomacy".

Had China had not boldly invaded Vietnam, Russia and Vietnam might have gotten ideas about attacking first. At least this was what China feared.

The invasion took both Vietnam and Russia by surprise and showed a resolve they didn't think China had against such odds.

The invasion also proved conclusively that Russia will not intervene directly in Vietnam's favour. This must have given Vietnam a lot of second thoughts about its neat little arrangements with Russia.

"Beijing's policy was actually a diplomatic success, since Moscow did not actively intervene, thus showing the practical limitations of the Soviet-Vietnamese military pact."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm


In other words, a bad invasion was better than if China had just sat on its hands doing fxxkall. It eliminated any further thoughts of a combined pact against China. Instead it put Vietnam on the defensive.



They certainly do not cow tow to China and follow their own path which suggests they are far from a 'buffer state'.

No matter how badly China did in the 1979 invasion, Vietnam clearly will not want to invite another invasion, will they? And they did not introduce any foreign powers into the border region to cause further aggravation.

Therefore, I qualify Vietnam as a "buffer" for China against foreign powers. They only have to maintain the status quo there. China is clearly in no danger of being invaded by Vietnam. And as tension continue to ease, each side can reduce the number of divisions stationed there.

[Chino]

Oh no! The PRC will not intervene on North Koreas side. China regards N. Korea as a problem, & S. Korea as a normal state with which it can deal on good terms. It will not, ever, help N. Korea against the south, unless the south attacks.

Not many, which is one reason why it'll collapse if it attacks. Chinese supplies will instantly dry up.

Completely wrong, dude.

Remind me... since when did China agree to a US military solution? That's a wet dream for the West and a nightmare for China.

You guys living in the west, have no idea of how much China dread the prospect of the US coming anywhere near the Chinese border.

I hope the US is not misreading China like you all are. Otherwise we're all in deep shxt.

[Chino]

Yes, but that potential bad temper is matched up to a economy that is becoming a powerhouse, ROK is not a poor country like Mongolia.

:cool: C'mon... that's ridiculous and frankly quite childish subject to pursue with all due respects... For e.g. are Americans "bad tempered" as a people? NO. Yet they won the friggin' WW2. So please move on...


And you are kidding right with the brotherly love between China and Korea, former Soviet influence was more firmly implanted in place in North Korea versus Chinese influence,

Please don't put words in my mouth to forward your argument. Where did I say "brotherly love"?

Many N Koreans live in China. Many Chinese live in N Korea. Fact.

Many North Koreans fought with the Chicoms against the Japs and the Nationalists. Many Chinese returned the favour in Korea. Fact.

And Soviet influence changed... what?


South Koreans do not trust the Chinese and they do have a dark history in their existance,

Where, did I say S Koreans trust the Chinese?


but on that same note ROK does invest in China and they do have a good relationship, which China would also factor in before letting the balloon go for war, its all about money.

Over simplifying.

It is ridiculous to suggest that China will sacrifice her border security over trade with one single country like South Korea.

If a US-sponsored invasion of N Korea is successful, China will be within arty range of US military. Now tell me how is that supposed to help the Chicom continue thinking about making money?

[swerve]

Completely wrong, dude.

Remind me... since when did China agree to a US military solution? That's a wet dream for the West and a nightmare for China.

You guys living in the west, have no idea of how much China dread the prospect of the US coming anywhere near the Chinese border.

I hope the US is not misreading China like you all are. Otherwise we're all in deep shxt.

I'm not talking about a US military solution, Where did you get that idea from? Nor the US coming near Chinas border. BTW, why does China dread the prospect of US troops on its border? Think about that for a while, then think about what a land war between China & the USA in Korea means.

Think it through: if North Korea invades the south, where do Chinas interests lie? In N. Korean victory? Of course not! That would cost China a fortune, & leave the biggest liability on its borders even more of a problem. The best hope for China is a swift defeat of N. Korean forces. Chinas main problem is how to manage the aftermath.

China might benefit from intervening, but not to fight either the USA or S. Korea. Any intervention can be prepared by demanding a UN-supervised ceasefire, offering to mediate, announcing that China will do all it can to ensure humanitarian aid reaches the victims of the war, etc., etc., while privately contacting other governments & expressing concern about the fate of N. Korean nuclear & chemical weapons & hinting at the need for them to be made safe. Present itself as a peacemaker & protector of general international interests. Chinese troops can then move in to seize N. Korean WMD bases & secure lines of communication to them, & to occupy border areas to 1) prevent a flood of refugees across the border (corral them on the N. Korean side, & call for international assistance to feed them), & 2) keep the US forces away from the border. It can then bargain the occupied areas away as part of a general settlement involving US withdrawal.

Tell me again about that US military solution.

[Waylander]

But there is a fundamental difference between a possible unprovoced attack of NK against the south without consulting the Chinese government (Remember the more or less successfull bomb test?) and an offensive military action by the USA to solve the problem of the "axis of evil".

I think nobody here denies that such an offensive move by the US is going to provoke a very harsh reaction by the Chinese.

But the majority here is just thinking that the Chinese support for an unprovoced attack by NK without consulting them is not going to end with the same result.

Chinese are not dumb.
There is a real possibility that if Korea gets united there will be no foreign troops on their soil anymore. It is not going to be that hard for the Koreans to make the US leave the country.
So China would have a united Korea on their border without US presence on their border. Right now SK is one of the big trading partners of China in this region and they have a normal relationship.
And the costs and problems of a reunification are going to give the Koreans so many headaches that China can count on them being totally busy with that for the next decades.
This is not East and West Germany when it comes to economy. East Germany was still the richest country of the eastern sattelite states while NK is just dark...


BTW, to go even further off-topic. :D
Isn't it a popular theory that the Japanese Islands have been colonised by people from all over the Asian coast be it Koreans from the south or people from Siberia from the north (resulting in the Ainu in the north) and that especially from the beginning of the Yayoi-time (300b.c.-300a.d.) more and more Korean settlers arrived at the Islands and influenced the later Japanese culture alot.

[evripide]

BTW, to go even further off-topic. :D
Isn't it a popular theory that the Japanese Islands have been colonised by people from all over the Asian coast be it Koreans from the south or people from Siberia from the north (resulting in the Ainu in the north) and that especially from the beginning of the Yayoi-time (300b.c.-300a.d.) more and more Korean settlers arrived at the Islands and influenced the later Japanese culture alot.

It is quite right. Many Koreans moved until the 7th century. If you check wikipedia with 'Japanese history', there are articles related with this issue. However, i am not sure it is colonisation. I'd rather call it immigration. and it is general pheonomenon for many island cultures. Anglo-saxons moved from Germanic world to Britania. But they developed their own culture which is different from German countries. Whether the 'ancient Koreans' did something or not, still these are unique Japanese cultures.

[eckherl]

:cool: C'mon... that's ridiculous and frankly quite childish subject to pursue with all due respects... For e.g. are Americans "bad tempered" as a people? NO. Yet they won the friggin' WW2. So please move on...



Please don't put words in my mouth to forward your argument. Where did I say "brotherly love"?

Many N Koreans live in China. Many Chinese live in N Korea. Fact.

Many North Koreans fought with the Chicoms against the Japs and the Nationalists. Many Chinese returned the favour in Korea. Fact.

And Soviet influence changed... what?



Where, did I say S Koreans trust the Chinese?



Over simplifying.

It is ridiculous to suggest that China will sacrifice her border security over trade with one single country like South Korea.

If a US-sponsored invasion of N Korea is successful, China will be within arty range of US military. Now tell me how is that supposed to help the Chicom continue thinking about making money?

You can think it is childish if you like but the fact is that no one is going to dictate to them that they cannot live with their North Korean counterparts, again - not China the U.S or anybody else, and it does piss them off that there could be the potential of countries meddling in their business, I follow Korean politics on a daily basis and I do have a full understanding of what is going on in that regoin. The U.S will not stay in Korea if the Korean government wants us to leave, we have already come close of doing just that even with nut case uncle kim in place. China is not going to jeapordize her economy over Korea and Korea will do the same in return, this is a new Chinese era and they are not going to risk going to war with the U.S or anybody else to set their economy back, again its a money thing, money buys investments, weapons and keeps your population most happy thus keeping you in power. China will put stipulations on the border issue in which South Korea would abide by.

And the debate that South Korea or a U.S sponsored attack to the North would occur is a bit comical, for what purpose, South Korea will play the waiting game.

[Chino]

I'm not talking about a US military solution, Where did you get that idea from?

My mistake, apologies. Answering too many posts at the same time.


BTW, why does China dread the prospect of US troops on its border?
That's a tough one... now why wouldn't China welcome US troops on its border?:rolleyes:

I have to ask, what's your point in asking such an obvious question given:

* US troop presence means war, unless they are there for fun and games...

* war means destabilising the region

* if Iraq takes 5 years and still counting, how long will Korea take? 10? 20?

* what about all the mistrusts and rivalry in East Asia between the two? Are they suddenly friends?

And didn't the PLA ram a US spy plane off the southern coast not too long ago? If the Chinese cannot tolerate EVEN a single US spy plane, why would you possibly even imagine they won't mind a few dozen US divisions invading at the border?


China might benefit from intervening, ...demanding a UN-supervised ceasefire, offering to mediate.... a general settlement involving US withdrawal.


And what makes you think China is in any position to negotiate once US boots are at the Chinese border?

What makes you think US will be in a mood to negotiate after a victorious effort. Is anyone able to negotiate the US out of Iraq? I don't think so. The Americans will only leave if they decide to leave. No one can influence them. The UN is their plaything. The US control the UN, not the other way round.

[swerve]

But there is a fundamental difference between a possible unprovoced attack of NK against the south without consulting the Chinese government (Remember the more or less successfull bomb test?) and an offensive military action by the USA to solve the problem of the "axis of evil".

I think nobody here denies that such an offensive move by the US is going to provoke a very harsh reaction by the Chinese....

Certainly. I find it bizarre that when one person discusses a possible N. Korean invasion of the south, others confuse it with "a US-sponsored invasion of N Korea".


BTW, to go even further off-topic. :D
Isn't it a popular theory that the Japanese Islands have been colonised by people from all over the Asian coast be it Koreans from the south or people from Siberia from the north (resulting in the Ainu in the north) and that especially from the beginning of the Yayoi-time (300b.c.-300a.d.) more and more Korean settlers arrived at the Islands and influenced the later Japanese culture alot.

According to my local expert (she's useless on politics & history, but damn good on linguistics, having two Japanese & one English degrees in it), Japanese is best thought of as a hybrid language. The basic structure & much of the vocabulary is clearly related to Korean, which, BTW, she speaks - though she complains she's very rusty - and so can make direct comparisons. A large part of the vocabulary is derived from Chinese, but that's known to be due to borrowings in historical times, akin to the large Latin & lesser Greek vocabulary (e.g. "vocabulary" :D ) in English. There are elements in southern dialects, especially in Ryukyu, which appear to be derived from Malayo-Polynesian languages, & elements in northern dialects which suggest a different substructure.

All in all, it's consistent with northern & central Japan having been populated by people speaking one language or group of languages, possibly related to Ainu, & the south having been populated by speakers of Malayo-Polynesian language(s) akin to that of the Taiwanese aborigines. At some point, at least by Yayoi times but possibly earlier, speakers of proto-Korean arrived from Korea & spread over the islands, assimilating the locals, swamping their languages, but being influenced by them in the process. Several centuries later, Chinese writing (later adapted to make hiragana & katakana) & linguistic influence arrived, though without settlement or Chinese rule.

This is probably a simplification.

BTW, people I know in Japan tell me there are physical differences between northerners & southerners, the former being hairier & more Ainu-like, & the latter being more SE Asian in appearance. And that's far enough off-topic. End of my contribution.

[eckherl]

But there is a fundamental difference between a possible unprovoced attack of NK against the south without consulting the Chinese government (Remember the more or less successfull bomb test?) and an offensive military action by the USA to solve the problem of the "axis of evil".

I think nobody here denies that such an offensive move by the US is going to provoke a very harsh reaction by the Chinese.

But the majority here is just thinking that the Chinese support for an unprovoced attack by NK without consulting them is not going to end with the same result.

Chinese are not dumb.
There is a real possibility that if Korea gets united there will be no foreign troops on their soil anymore. It is not going to be that hard for the Koreans to make the US leave the country.
So China would have a united Korea on their border without US presence on their border. Right now SK is one of the big trading partners of China in this region and they have a normal relationship.
And the costs and problems of a reunification are going to give the Koreans so many headaches that China can count on them being totally busy with that for the next decades.
This is not East and West Germany when it comes to economy. East Germany was still the richest country of the eastern sattelite states while NK is just dark...


BTW, to go even further off-topic. :D
Isn't it a popular theory that the Japanese Islands have been colonised by people from all over the Asian coast be it Koreans from the south or people from Siberia from the north (resulting in the Ainu in the north) and that especially from the beginning of the Yayoi-time (300b.c.-300a.d.) more and more Korean settlers arrived at the Islands and influenced the later Japanese culture alot.

Good post Waylander, things have become so normalized now between the ROK and China that there is a average 50 flights on a daily basis between both countries and growing, good times between the two of them with further ROK investment in China on the way.:)

[Chino]

...no one is going to dictate to them that they cannot live with their North Korean counterparts, again - not China the U.S or anybody else, ...The U.S will not stay in Korea if the Korean government wants us to leave, ....this is a new Chinese era and they are not going to risk going to war with the U.S or anybody else to set their economy back, again its a money thing, money buys investments, weapons and keeps your population most happy thus keeping you in power. China will put stipulations on the border issue in which South Korea would abide by.

All very logical points. If US troops leave, that solves a lot of headaches for China. I am basically trying to say how paranoid they are of the US.

The US being the most powerful military in the world, and constantly showing it is not shy to use that power... bombing the Chinese embassy... spy planes... bad blood in the past... these things add up.


And the debate that South Korea or a U.S sponsored attack to the North would occur is a bit comical, for what purpose, South Korea will play the waiting game.

I thought the US was pretty serious about destroying WMD targets in N Korea? Again, such threats are not taken lightly in this region and increases concerns.

[Chino]

Certainly. I find it bizarre that when one person discusses a possible N. Korean invasion of the south, others confuse it with "a US-sponsored invasion of N Korea".

My mistake...:(

[eckherl]

All very logical points. If US troops leave, that solves a lot of headaches for China. I am basically trying to say how paranoid they are of the US.

The US being the most powerful military in the world, and constantly showing it is not shy to use that power... bombing the Chinese embassy... spy planes... bad blood in the past... these things add up.



I thought the US was pretty serious about destroying WMD targets in N Korea? Again, such threats are not taken lightly in this region and increases concerns.

We are serious about destroying weapons of mass destruction, but how we go about that needs to be decided in equal part by South Korea and China, they will be the two countries that will be most effected by the outcome, plus we will get more respect from both countries by giving them a equal say.

[alexsa]

"China achieved a strategic victory by minimizing the future possibility of a two-front war against the USSR and Vietnam."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm

The above quote paints for you the very desperate situation back when China was skirmishing with Russian military in the north, and Vietnam in the south. Putting one and one together, it is not hard for China to arrive at the conclusion that something much bigger was afoot.



If "body count" is the only measure of success or failure, then, shall we declare US the victor of the Vietnam War and Russia the victor of the Afghanistan War....?

That the PLA's performance was poor is undoubted. But you must see from the POV of "war being an extension of diplomacy".

Had China had not boldly invaded Vietnam, Russia and Vietnam might have gotten ideas about attacking first. At least this was what China feared.

The invasion took both Vietnam and Russia by surprise and showed a resolve they didn't think China had against such odds.

The invasion also proved conclusively that Russia will not intervene directly in Vietnam's favour. This must have given Vietnam a lot of second thoughts about its neat little arrangements with Russia.

"Beijing's policy was actually a diplomatic success, since Moscow did not actively intervene, thus showing the practical limitations of the Soviet-Vietnamese military pact."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-vietnam.htm


In other words, a bad invasion was better than if China had just sat on its hands doing fxxkall. It eliminated any further thoughts of a combined pact against China. Instead it put Vietnam on the defensive.




No matter how badly China did in the 1979 invasion, Vietnam clearly will not want to invite another invasion, will they? And they did not introduce any foreign powers into the border region to cause further aggravation.

Therefore, I qualify Vietnam as a "buffer" for China against foreign powers. They only have to maintain the status quo there. China is clearly in no danger of being invaded by Vietnam. And as tension continue to ease, each side can reduce the number of divisions stationed there.

We are getting off topic but that makes about as much sense as saying the Ukaraine is a buffer against Poland or the rest of europe. They were part of a buffer before the Eastern block disintergrated but that is very qeustionalbe now and like your scenario:
i I doubt they want to be invaded either; and
ii they don't trust each other either.

Then there is the issue of what Vietnams is buffering against ...... Thailand perhaps? Actually i don't see them facilitating action action against China either.

If these states were all under the control of China you would have a point, the fact is they are not.

[Firehorse]

Well, most posts have valid points. I would like to clarify a few things though:
the Chinese had "commanderies" in Korea which were populated by military families and other support folks. In 300 B.C.E. the Yen invasion took place, bringing Chinese economic, political, and military influence into the region of Old Choson. In 109 B.C.E., armies of Han China defeated the Wiman Choson kingdom and established the Commandery of Lelang, a permanent outpost at the othern end of the peninsula. Soon, four Commanderies were in place. Chinese interests rested mainly in Korean natural resources and in maintaining a secure boundary. While indigenous Koreans were allowed some political freedoms, most dimensions of their civilization were influenced by the Han presence. http://www.stockton.edu/~gilmorew/consorti/1deasia.htm

Several ancient kingdoms in what is now Korea were often fighting each other (http://www.k12academics.com/korea_history.htm)and forming pacts with/inviting both Japanese and Chinese to help them. I've visited S.Korea and Japan- as a non-speaker of both languages I noticed their similarity, and also alofness of S.Koreans. In the event of unification with the North they'll have to struggle against not only poverty but also cultural differences & their own prejudices. How long was Italy (I've been there too) unified (http://www.arcaini.com/ITALY/ItalyHistory/ItalianUnification.htm) for? Even today they have strong regionalism and disparity in cultures and economy in the North VS. South.
The north–south divide
The plight of southern Italy (the Mezzogiorno) has presented one of the most permanent and intractable problems since the formation of the Italian state in 1870. Existing poverty and backwardness in the south was further aggravated by the industrialization of the north in the late 19th century, and the reforms introduced by Giovanni Giolitti (prime minister several times in the late 19th and early 20th centuries) had little success. The massive wave of overseas emigration in the decade before 1914 provides an index of the deteriorating conditions in the south.
Despite early promises, however, the area was again neglected by the Fascist regime. After liberation in 1944 the south once again became the scene of bitter peasant risings and attempts to occupy uncultivated estates. De Gasperi's government in 1950 introduced agrarian reforms and established a special bank, the Cassa del Mezzogiorno, to encourage investment in the south. The renewed massive emigration of the 1950s and 1960s indicated that such measures were inadequate.
Other government plans to create incentives for investment in the south, the Vanoni Plan (1954) and the Pieraccini Plan (1965) were never implemented, and the Alfa Romeo factory built near Naples rapidly proved to be a costly blunder. The funds of the Cassa have often been directed to political, rather than economic, ends, and although some improvements have occurred, the gap between the north and south has tended to increase since the end of the war.
http://www.tiscali.co.uk/reference/encyclopaedia/hutchinson/m0019796.html

..the gap between the North and the South of Italy continues to grow (http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:Y3z6igezkYcJ:www.bennett.karoo.net/vgd/resources/italy/nsitaly.doc+Italy+north+south+differences&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us).

And, even without the other factors, a united Korea will present a danger of separatism to PRC areas populated with ethnic Koreans. I strongly agree that Tibet is another case in point- strategicaly it's the highest ground in Asia to keep an eye on India (http://www.iht.com/articles/1998/05/14/edbrahm.t.php). And I don't agree that China taught Vietnam and Soviets a lesson- it was another way around (http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE3-3/bakshi.html)! The Soviet Union publicly threatened to, but didn't directly intervene - it wasn't necessary as Vietnamese were skillful & resourceful enough in defending themselves.
There is no guarantee when where American forces would end up in relation to present PRC-NK border in the event of a war on Korean peninsula. But if the PLA one day replaces the NK army on its side of the DMZ, that would guarantee a rather large security zone for China!

[eckherl]

Well, most posts have valid points. I would like to clarify a few things though:
the Chinese had "commanderies" in Korea which were populated by military families and other support folks.
Several ancient kingdoms in what is now Korea were often fighting each other (http://www.k12academics.com/korea_history.htm)and forming pacts with/inviting both Japanese and Chinese to help them. I've visited S.Korea and Japan- as a non-speaker of both languages I noticed their similarity, and also alofness of S.Koreans. In the event of unification with the North they'll have to struggle against not only poverty but also cultural differences & their own prejudices. How long was Italy (I've been there too) unified (http://www.arcaini.com/ITALY/ItalyHistory/ItalianUnification.htm) for? Even today they have strong regionalism and disparity in cultures and economy in the North VS. South.
And, even without the other factors, a united Korea will present a danger of separatism to PRC areas populated with ethnic Koreans. I strongly agree that Tibet is another case in point- strategicaly it's the highest ground in Asia to keep an eye on India (http://www.iht.com/articles/1998/05/14/edbrahm.t.php). And I don't agree that China taught Vietnam and Soviets a lesson- it was another way around (http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE3-3/bakshi.html)! The Soviet Union publicly threatened to, but didn't directly intervene - it wasn't necessary as Vietnamese were skillful & resourceful enough in defending themselves.
There is no guarantee when where American forces would end up in relation to present PRC-NK border in the event of a war on Korean peninsula. But if the PLA one day replaces the NK army on its all the way side of the DMZ, that would guarantee a rather large security zone for China!

So what do you think that the ROK will do when China takes over all of North Korea, just sit back, no way, they will be screaming all the way to the UN for action which they would get.

[Firehorse]

I doubt the UN will object- China will portray it as a humanitarian/stabilization mission and will actualy ask the UN for help, and ROK will be glad to have them take care of it- otherwise they'll have to tighten their belts for a looong time!

[sansei]

I doubt the UN will object- China will portray it as a humanitarian/stabilization mission and will actualy ask the UN for help, and ROK will be glad to have them take care of it- otherwise they'll have to tighten their belts for a looong time!

That is the most ridiculous statement I have heard in nearly all my life.

In this world people are not rational, they are TRIBAL: "US vs YOU"

People tend to let emotion get the better of them and delve into idiotic, pathological nationalism very fast as reflected in the history of the past century.

In the case of the ROK we already had a preview of Korean nationalism over the tiny island of Dokdo/Tsushima that for all purposes derailed years of positive bilateral relations not helped by the antics of a band of small but very vocal nationalists of my own country who tried to claim the island in the first place.

What makes you think the ROK would willingly allow the PRC to occupy the North despite the hypothetical benefits of not having to feed all those NK refugees?

People on this forum familiar with Korea (especially the ROK) would understand that most people in the ROK would rather be living on $1 a day rather than willingly give up any part of the North to the PRC-as reflected in a interesting conversation I had with a group of students over the symbolic importance of Mt Baekdu.

[Atilla [TR]]

I would hate to see something like this because in the End both sides are Koreans, same people and if they fought each other it would be like brothers trying to kill each other. I was worried something like this would happen if the Cold war became warm because Soviet Union would attack Turkey as one of the first places and to do so they probably would have used her arsenal in Azebaijan SSR, I would of hate too see something like this because if that war ever broke out Turks from Turkey would be fighting Turks from Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, same people some even cousins would be fighting each other. What I would like to see happen in the near future is the 2 sides joining one Korea democracy because everyone in N Korea wants that other then the Dictators obviously, and so the wealth can go around and they can save some of the starving people in N. Korea. It also would be great if all those Turkish states joined together as one country but that is a little off topic.

[Atilla [TR]]

Well, most posts have valid points. I would like to clarify a few things though:
the Chinese had "commanderies" in Korea which were populated by military families and other support folks.
Several ancient kingdoms in what is now Korea were often fighting each other (http://www.k12academics.com/korea_history.htm)and forming pacts with/inviting both Japanese and Chinese to help them. I've visited S.Korea and Japan- as a non-speaker of both languages I noticed their similarity, and also alofness of S.Koreans. In the event of unification with the North they'll have to struggle against not only poverty but also cultural differences & their own prejudices. How long was Italy (I've been there too) unified (http://www.arcaini.com/ITALY/ItalyHistory/ItalianUnification.htm) for? Even today they have strong regionalism and disparity in cultures and economy in the North VS. South.
And, even without the other factors, a united Korea will present a danger of separatism to PRC areas populated with ethnic Koreans. I strongly agree that Tibet is another case in point- strategicaly it's the highest ground in Asia to keep an eye on India (http://www.iht.com/articles/1998/05/14/edbrahm.t.php). And I don't agree that China taught Vietnam and Soviets a lesson- it was another way around (http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE3-3/bakshi.html)! The Soviet Union publicly threatened to, but didn't directly intervene - it wasn't necessary as Vietnamese were skillful & resourceful enough in defending themselves.
There is no guarantee when where American forces would end up in relation to present PRC-NK border in the event of a war on Korean peninsula. But if the PLA one day replaces the NK army on its side of the DMZ, that would guarantee a rather large security zone for China!

Seriously alot of countrys can spring out of China like Turkestan but China would not let that happen even though in those areas there are no chinese people nither are there many assets for the chinese government, I am talking about North West CHina.

[Chino]

Then there is the issue of what Vietnams is buffering against ...... Thailand perhaps?
No, Vietnam is a buffer against invasion from Mars...:rolleyes:

The USA, for one. That's why China supported the Viet Minh/Vietcong efforts - initially.

Secondly, when it seem the Soviets will join force with Vietnam to threaten China, Vietnam was invaded.

Since then, are there any danger of outside forces - i.e. US or Soviet - adding tension to the Sino-Vietnam border?

[alexsa]

No, Vietnam is a buffer against invasion from Mars...:rolleyes:

The USA, for one. That's why China heavily supported the Viet Minh - at first.

Later on, when it seem the Soviets will join force with Vietnam, China invaded. So Vietnam and Russia cooled their pact against China. So for the past 20 over years, the Vietnam border is still volatile but not in danger of a foreign power like Soviet or USA there escalating tension.

This is way off topic but why would the US bother going though Vietnam, they don't have a support base in thailand or anywhere else in the immedaite area so it is not very likely and logic of your theory is pretty thin.

A buffer is an arrangment designed to preserve a main structure, body, vehicle from harm, usual at the expense of itself. don't really see vietnam doing that or anybody attacking China making antoehr enemy on the way (particualry one that doe not trust China in the first place).

Anyway I will refrain from further comment and let the thread get back to Korea.

[Chino]

This is way off topic but why would the US bother going though Vietnam, they don't have a support base in thailand .

Anyway I will refrain from further comment and let the thread get back to Korea.

When I mentioned US, I was talking about the Vietnam War when China supported the fight against the US (and the French?) so they would not have to worry about US being at the Chinese border.

Yes, please drop this.

[alexsa]

When I mentioned US, I was talking about the Vietnam War when China supported the fight against the US (and the French?) so they would not have to worry about US being at the Chinese border.

Sorry but this .....


These places form a almost complete 360 ring around China. With the exception of Vietnam, the rest are either client states, or under PLA control, or in the case of Vietnam, is kept in check militarily.

From the people who brought you the Great Wall, this is the modern version. A protective ring of buffer states. These places are on hair trigger as far as the paranoid Chinese are concerned.


Sounded like the present, not 1970. either youa re not very clear in your intent or you have change your ground.

Yes, please drop this.

With pleasure.

[Chino]

Sounded like the present, not 1970. either youa re not very clear in your intent or you have change your ground.


I am talking about buffer against a "foreign power". Thailand, is "foreign" but not a "power". Get it so far?

China and VN does not like each other, fact. But there is at least tacit agreement since the Sino-Vietnam War that VN will not again tie up with foreign power like Russia to threaten China's border.

1950s - 60s China supported the original Vietminh to kick out western armies.

1980s - China invaded VN to discourage a Soviet/VN pact to intimidate China.

NOW - The border has since been free of any foreign forces. Yes, including the "Thais"

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