Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons (Questions)

[SABRE]

I know a lot of people, especially outside Pakistan, have lots of curiosities & questions regarding Pakistan's nuclear program. I know a certain someone who can give answers regarding Pakistan's bomb. I'll be meeting him on Wednesday & I thought to get people's questions answered.

So if any questions put them here & I'll take it to him.

Note:

1. Questions should be relevant. I'll only put your questions to him if they make sense.

2. I am student of 'this person' so he has given me good amount of information already. Hence if I have answer to questions posted here I'll directly answer them here myself rather than putting same questions to him again.

[Khairul Alam]

3 questions in brief (please do enlighten me even if some questions seem outright stupid :p:):
1. An estimate of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (some online sources put it at ~30 whereas some say >60)
2. Who calls the shot in launching a nuclear weapon? Most likely the head of the government does. I mean are there special codes needed to initiate an attack or is it as simple as calling the relevant guy up and just saying "do it".
3. Did Pakistan yet manage to build their own mini-nukes? India already possesses them, so Pakistan should get them too, just to maintain the balance of power.

[shashank2008nai]

In Todays Newpaper That Pakistan's Nuclear Scientist Stole The Nuclear Secrets From A Country And After That He Was Made The Chief Of Pakistans Nuclear Program. I Want To Know Is This True. And I Also Want To Know How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Pakistan Posses?

[Khairul Alam]

In Todays Newpaper That Pakistan's Nuclear Scientist Stole The Nuclear Secrets From A Country And After That He Was Made The Chief Of Pakistans Nuclear Program. I Want To Know Is This True. And I Also Want To Know How Many Nuclear Weapons Does Pakistan Posses?

just to add to shashank,the recent book THE NUCLEAR JIHADIST claims that Mr A Q Khan stole nuclear secrets from a Dutch laboratory and used that to build centrifuges.how much weight does this claim have??

[SABRE]

2. Who calls the shot in launching a nuclear weapon? Most likely the head of the government does. I mean are there special codes needed to initiate an attack or is it as simple as calling the relevant guy up and just saying "do it".


This is the question I was hoping for. I would prefer to answer it my self as I have had long discussion on this with him.

The NCA or the National Command Authority calls all the shots.

The President of Pakistan is the Chairman of NCA while Prime Minister is Vice-Chairman - with Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Vice Chief of Army Staff, (VCOAS), Foreign Minister, Interior Minister, Defence Minister & top level Scientists as other members.

However its a collective organization & no individual has complete hegemony on the NCA. So if Pakistan decides to "Press the button" it would have to be NCA's decision, as in collective decision by its top members. If majority tend to disagree with launching of nuclear weapons than they cannot be launched. If President wants to launch the attack but others tend to disagree than attack cant be carried out. So your assumption that head of the state - like the American President - has authority to launch a missile is wrong.

I would like to add something important here regarding the SECURITY of the Pakistan's nuclear arsenal --- NCA is responsible for both safety & security of the nuclear weapons. Many believe that the weapons can fall into wrong hands. The chances are very grim, almost 0%.

1. The wrong hands (extremists) cannot come to power in Pakistan because

a) Pakistan is not Afghanistan & has well disciplined & well armed army capable of tackling the 'wrong hands.' That is why the 'wrong hands' have been contained to a particular region only (although very threatening events do take place in rest of the country, there is no chance of them spreading beyond their own region).

b) Extremists cant come to power via democracy as the province they usually hail from has minor number of seats in the parliament. So even if they win 100% seats from that particular province they cannot form a govt. Since they cannot form a govt they cannot become President nor PM hence no chance of them becoming Chairman nor Vice-chairman of NCA.

* Even if lets suppose they come to power they cannot launch nuclear attack because they would require collective decision to do so from the members of NCA - who actually go through "Personal Reliability Program" to see if they are mentally or emotionally challenged people. I.e.: If one comes up saying I want to destroy 'xyz' country than he is out, be it your No.1 enemy.

* Lets suppose they hijack a nuclear missile:

a) It would be of no use to them. Pakistani nuclear weapons are not launch at alarm ready like the American missiles - this means warhead is kept aside from the missiles.

b) They wouldn't know how to launch it on their own.

c) Third thing is safety of missile itself; as Dr. Samar Mubarakmand [Ex-Chief of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) & NESCOM] said it 'even if you put the missile on the road & give people hammer to hit it nothing will happen' ... so the extremists/terrorists cant hijack a missile, take it to any country & start banging it so it could explode & destroy that country.

d) How will they hijack the missiles when they don't know their location of deployment? Plus the missiles & warheads are always under heavy security. I doubt anyone is willing to take such as risk to fight the security forces around the weapons.

As my teacher puts it .. the safety & security measures of NCA today are more robust & affective than the Americans'. In fact the Americans, IAEA & other organizations have been brief about NCA's working & they themselves have said it is more efficient, robust, affective & strict than ours.

Hence all this talk about Pakistan's nuclear program falling to wrong hands is just a talk, especially by the American politicians aspiring to run for American Presidency.

[SABRE]

In Todays Newpaper That Pakistan's Nuclear Scientist Stole The Nuclear Secrets From A Country And After That He Was Made The Chief Of Pakistans Nuclear Program.

Yes its kind of true but the person who stole the nuclear secrets is no nuclear scientist but a "metallurgist." You know him by the name of A.Q. Khan. He used to work at URENCO in Holland where Europeans were setting up their latest technology based Centrifuges. A.Q. Khan was actually suppose to be a translator of 'restricted' documents into English, French & German language. But soon he accessed classified & top-secret documents & areas of URENCO where he was actually not allowed & the security at the organization didn't pay much attention.

The western countries thought that country like Pakistan cannot make a bomb, even if it does it would be based on plutonium & would require reprocessing plant. In fact that was the 1st preference of Pakistan. URENCO & western countries thinking that of what use would centrifuge be to Pakistan when they don't have uranium based plant? & how will they build the centrifuge? They were bluffing themselves, A.Q.Khan found loopholes in the western export list & started importing the materials one by one. He managed to get a separate installation for his working at Kahutta Research Labs now Khan Research Labs (KRL). He started researching centrifuge & warheads & by late 1980s declared that Pakistan can make bomb in weeks time if ordered. Thats how an engineering student who did Ph.D in metallurgy transformed himself into a nuclear scientist & Pakistan's hero.

The true scientist behind the bomb is actually Ex-Chairman of PAEC Dr. Munir Ahmed Khan (Late) who never got along with A.Q. Khan. While the real father of the Bomb is late Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.

Dr. Munir Ahmed Khan was the head of nuclear program but when A.Q.Khan parted ways Munir Ahmed Khan became chief of nuclear program under PAEC & A.Q.Khan became head of nuclear program under KRL. While the real chief of nuclear program was Z.A. Bhutto. After Z.A.Bhutto's death the two organization led their program independently from each other. So there were two chiefs aiming at same objective.

However, it was PAEC under Dr. Samar Mubarakmand to test the nuclear device in 1998 & not A.Q.Khan & his KRL team. So in the end the real scientists won.

Just a note: There are 12 steps in making a nuclear bomb out of which A.Q. Khan only masters 1 step & thats uranium's enrichment (via centrifuge) to 90-95% (weapons grade uranium). Nevertheless he did an important job.



For a better information read 'Shopping for bombs' by Gordan Correra. Or 'Deception' by Adrian Levy. I would recommend the first one since I have read it. However, let me tell you something these books are actually designed to show A.Q. Khan as a bad guy & the whole Pakistan nuclear program based on "cheating." It ins't so. There is also work carried out by PAEC who were the ones to test the explosive devices. Not much attention is given to them, regardless of them being the real people behind the bomb. It was mostly their own scientific knowledge & capabilities that helped them make the bomb

[SABRE]

1. An estimate of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (some online sources put it at ~30 whereas some say >60)

I doubt that can be answered but I'll try.


3. Did Pakistan yet manage to build their own mini-nukes? India already possesses them, so Pakistan should get them too, just to maintain the balance of power.

I don't think we are pursuing anything like that but than I don't have access to such info.

I think for balance of power all nuclear weapons have to do is create assured/credible deterrence & the big nukes are already doing that. Mini or small you would keep on thinking & keep on have 2nd thoughts about using them against another nuclear country even if that country doesn't posses mini-nukes. You take a small step & the wipe you out. --- But still I'll try to put the question to him.

[F-15 Eagle]

I have a big concern about Pakistains nuclear arsenal, givin the current politcal crises there, what if the terrorist take control of the government, then they will have anywhere from 50-120 nukes that could be a huge threat, it good spark WW3 in the worst case situation.:shudder

[SABRE]

I have a big concern about Pakistains nuclear arsenal, givin the current politcal crises there, what if the terrorist take control of the government, then they will have anywhere from 50-120 nukes that could be a huge threat, it good spark WW3 in the worst case situation.:shudder

If you care to read my 2nd post in the thread (Post#5) you would get your answer.

People check if the question has been asked before or answered by me anyways before you ask any question. & please put it in a good & proper manner because I actually plan to put my laptop in front of him with your questions showing on the website.

[radiosilence]

According to reports Babur and Ra'ad are nuclear capable. Does Pakistan have nuclear warheads small enought to be fitted on these missiles at present or is the plan to eventually fit nuclear warheads on them?

[WAR]

I know a lot of people, especially outside Pakistan, have lots of curiosities & questions regarding Pakistan's nuclear program. I know a certain someone who can give answers regarding Pakistan's bomb. I'll be meeting him on Wednesday & I thought to get people's questions answered.

So if any questions put them here & I'll take it to him.

Note:

1. Questions should be relevant. I'll only put your questions to him if they make sense.

2. I am student of 'this person' so he has given me good amount of information already. Hence if I have answer to questions posted here I'll directly answer them here myself rather than putting same questions to him again.
Well, I think, keeping in mind the sensitivities involved in the issue raised/ initiated by SABRE, it seems to me very theatrical in nature.

At times clarifying such sensitive issues to the satisfaction of the "concerned" backfire, no matter how much honesty, truth, patriotism etc is there. Remember, the infamous interview of AQ Khan given to Kuldeep Nayyar ended up in Pressler Ammendmend.

Secondly, by stating "facts" through "most reliable" source(s) would surely raise more questions filled with suspicion. No one would take it on face value. Why? Because clarifying without being asked is like putting oneself in the dock, which means -- becoming defensive for no rhyme and reason.

No offence involved to any learnered member of this august forum. I have just exercised my freedom of expression.

[SABRE]

Well, I think, keeping in mind the sensitivities involved in the issue raised/ initiated by SABRE, it seems to me very theatrical in nature.

At times clarifying such sensitive issues to the satisfaction of the "concerned" backfire, no matter how much honesty, truth, patriotism etc is there. Remember, the infamous interview of AQ Khan given to Kuldeep Nayyar ended up in Pressler Ammendmend.

Secondly, by stating "facts" through "most reliable" source(s) would surely raise more questions filled with suspicion. No one would take it on face value. Why? Because clarifying without being asked is like putting oneself in the dock, which means -- becoming defensive for no rhyme and reason.

No offence involved to any learnered member of this august forum. I have just exercised my freedom of expression.

The information provided is actually public & the person whom I am going to put forward this question to is one of the public faces of NCA - in fact he is an international face of NCA.

The information provided by me & him is actually something Pakistan wants spread all over the world. If anything sensitive than of course it would not make it to internet. Security is too high as I said - not even at a gun point one can get a sensitive & classified information from NCA officials.

The idea is to provide people with correct information & remove false ideas & perceptions.

Anyways; it was not the A.Q. Khan's statement that got Pressler's Amendment implemented. The CIA already had greater knowledge about Pakistan's nuclear program & Pressler had already been passed in Congress even before A.Q. Khan's statement. It was only a matter of time we made a wrong move & the POTUS refused to certify that 'Pakistan is not making a bomb.'

[Grand Danois]

In case of decapitation of the NCA - what body will then have command authority?

[SABRE]

In case of decapitation of the NCA - what body will then have command authority?

Well I highly doubt NCA is going to be decapitated. Ordinance regarding its permanent presence has already been passed. Its now the Command & Control authority of nuclear program. I doubt even President of Pakistan (in this case Musharaf) can revoke it.

[Grand Danois]

Well I highly doubt NCA is going to be decapitated. Ordinance regarding its permanent presence has already been passed. Its now the Command & Control authority of nuclear program. I doubt even President of Pakistan (in this case Musharaf) can revoke it.

Oh! I think I put the question poorly. An example: During the Cold War in Europe, the politicians could authorize the use of nuclear weapons, however, if the command system was decapitated, the authority would be transferred to appointed generals in the NATO structure.

If the NCA is taken out, f.i. killed in a nuclear strike, who can authorize the use of nuclear weapons?

[Pro'forma]

There is no question to Pakistan, any need purchase nuclears.
There was long-time ago troubles and isolation moving invariably.
Isthmus without participation over countries. Intrusion indeed are no
needed.
Why is isolation inveigling many countries ? I don't think nuclears
are invention of this century, nor likely intruder is getting any
world prize.

[SABRE]

According to reports Babur and Ra'ad are nuclear capable. Does Pakistan have nuclear warheads small enought to be fitted on these missiles at present or is the plan to eventually fit nuclear warheads on them?

Well these are operational questions as my teacher puts it & I don't think any NCA personal is willing to answer it. They would give you an indirect hint for you to judge the answer your self.

So all I have to say if Pakistan is declaring the cruise missile as capable of carrying nuclear warheads & has designated them as the strategic weapons than what does that imply?

3. Did Pakistan yet manage to build their own mini-nukes? India already possesses them, so Pakistan should get them too, just to maintain the balance of power.

An estimate of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (some online sources put it at ~30 whereas some say >60)

Again operational questions. So I didn't ask.

[SABRE]

Oh! I think I put the question poorly. An example: During the Cold War in Europe, the politicians could authorize the use of nuclear weapons, however, if the command system was decapitated, the authority would be transferred to appointed generals in the NATO structure.

If the NCA is taken out, f.i. killed in a nuclear strike, who can authorize the use of nuclear weapons?

Oh ... I actually came to understand your question about few hours back (after I had discussions with my teacher & he had left) & before reading your clarification.

I asked similar question but the answer to my question was actually suppose to be different. My question was if we have nuclear ballestic missile submarine & the NCA is destroyed in a nuclear strike than who would make decision? For which he said that NCA might have some presence on board the sub, as well as the top crew of the sub will be the decision makers.

Anyways; I'll put this question to him on Saturday. I told him about the website so may be he finds his way here & answers you even before I do. But I doubt it so hopefully I'll get you the answer.

But to my understanding, especially derived from discussions with him, NCA can survive the 1st wave strike & than carryout its 2nd strike capability. This much we are assured that Pakistan has credible 2nd strike capability (as for assured 2nd strike capability we would require nuclear submarine ... & I don't think he would answer the question 'are we pursuing nuclear submarine?'). Again as for my understanding NCA operates from different locations. If the top commanders are wiped out than the surviving subordinate personal will carry out the decision.

[radiosilence]

Well these are operational questions as my teacher puts it & I don't think any NCA personal is willing to answer it. They would give you an indirect hint for you to judge the answer your self.

So all I have to say if Pakistan is declaring the cruise missile as capable of carrying nuclear warheads & has designated them as the strategic weapons than what does that imply?


Thanks for trying. I had a feeling the offical wouldn't give a clear answer to the question due the nature of it.

[Khairul Alam]

Another question sabre:
it was once reported in the media that saudi arabia had funded pakistan's nuclear program...some $1 billion.in return pakistan allegedly agreed to station nuclear weapons in SA if the need ever arose.but saudi hopes were said to be dashed after the coup, in which newaz sharif was toppled.how much truth is there to this claim??
(personally i think it is b.s because any such move wud be suicidal for pakistan.but cudnt just ignore the bbc documentary ;) )

[SABRE]

Another question sabre:
it was once reported in the media that saudi arabia had funded pakistan's nuclear program...some $1 billion.in return pakistan allegedly agreed to station nuclear weapons in SA if the need ever arose.but saudi hopes were said to be dashed after the coup, in which newaz sharif was toppled.how much truth is there to this claim??
(personally i think it is b.s because any such move wud be suicidal for pakistan.but cudnt just ignore the bbc documentary ;) )

Saudis have funded a lot of projects, with their share in most of them. Funding was only required in the initial stages perhaps, as Pakistan had just come out of the war (in 1971) & economy was at record low. Saudis "may" have provided the funds for nuclear program but there never was a chance of deployment of nuclear weapons outside Pakistan. The Pakistani nuclear weapons from day one have been Indo-Centric, although use can be diverted given a situation. So minusing the funding part (which too is subject of debate) I doubt that the bomb was going to be deployed in Saudi Arabia.

In addition KSA is a member of NPT; which means it cannot receive nuclear weapons, nuclear explosive devices or control over such weapons & explosive devices.

Further more the NCA, setup in 2001, strictly prohibits transfer of nuclear technology or weapons to any country. It follows similar principles as nuclear weapon states do under NPT - although Pakistan is not a member of the treaty.

Similar is the case said to be with Libya. Libya is said to have provided the largest amount. However, no tangible or visible proof has been provided so far regarding the funds. These fundings are only reported in the CIA files & may be that of MI6.

[Khairul Alam]

Saudis have funded a lot of projects, with their share in most of them. Funding was only required in the initial stages perhaps, as Pakistan had just come out of the war (in 1971) & economy was at record low. Saudis "may" have provided the funds for nuclear program but there never was a chance of deployment of nuclear weapons outside Pakistan. The Pakistani nuclear weapons from day one have been Indo-Centric, although use can be diverted given a situation. So minusing the funding part (which too is subject of debate) I doubt that the bomb was going to be deployed in Saudi Arabia.

In addition KSA is a member of NPT; which means it cannot receive nuclear weapons, nuclear explosive devices or control over such weapons & explosive devices.

Further more the NCA, setup in 2001, strictly prohibits transfer of nuclear technology or weapons to any country. It follows similar principles as nuclear weapon states do under NPT - although Pakistan is not a member of the treaty.

Similar is the case said to be with Libya. Libya is said to have provided the largest amount. However, no tangible or visible proof has been provided so far regarding the funds. These fundings are only reported in the CIA files & may be that of MI6.

Well do u think SA will have any regard for the NPT in case a war breaks out with a nuclear power, such as israel (maybe even iran)??deterrence will be the first thing in their mind.
as for nca prohibitting transfer of nuclear materials, well,
i only want to say that SA would not have philanthropically given $1 billion without asking for anything in return.

[SABRE]

Well do u think SA will have any regard for the NPT in case a war breaks out with a nuclear power, such as israel (maybe even iran)??deterrence will be the first thing in their mind.
as for nca prohibitting transfer of nuclear materials, well,
i only want to say that SA would not have philanthropically given $1 billion without asking for anything in return.

I don't think KSA is going to or is capable enough of fighting Israel. Even though it is greater in size, has great amount of oil money, has the main Muslim holly cities & considers it self to be leader of Muslim & Arab world it still wouldn't go up against the Israelis - as witnessed during the Arab-Israel Wars. The Americans have too much of an influence there (similarly Americans wouldn't want Israel to do something to the KSA ... however Israel would least regard it if they have to).

Anyways putting the political side aside ... KSA would have to withdraw from the NPT before taking the weapons in. It would have to submit the withdrawal reasons (which should prove that the treaty is not in favor of KSA's supreme national interest) to depositary & would be out of the treaty after 3 months. But in those 3 months various concerned countries, especially the P5 would pressurize Saudis to reconsider - behind the curtains Saudis would get a possible harsh treatment & pressure or may be given security assurance by any nuclear country, most probably the USA.

Furthermore the P5s, especially America & other countries (especially in the region) would start questioning KSA's motives behind the withdrawal.

To put it in simple international pressure would be too high on KSA.

But lets hypothetically suppose that KSA is under threat & has no regard for the NPT &/or has withdrawn from it, still Pakistan wont give away its nuclear weapons to KSA, especially under the current constitutional framework of NCA. So its not just what KSA regards or least regards, its also what the Pakistan's NCA gives importance to. Moreover, I don't think KSA has expertise (political, military, scientific & technical) to possess nuclear weapons.

Also Pakistan's giving away nuclear weapons to KSA would have created more trouble for Pakistan itself. The King of KSA was rumored to have asked Musharaf for nuclear weapons, missiles & team of scientists & engineers during his visit few years back but Pakistan denied it KSA outright. I find it completely baseless. King Abdulah may have asked for either peaceful assistance or a security assurance but not more than that.

I can only say that Pakistan can provide KSA a security assurance (nuclear umbrella) only when threat is to the Holly Cities & Sites.

[SaudiArabian]

I don't think KSA is going to or is capable enough of fighting Israel. Even though it is greater in size, has great amount of oil money, has the main Muslim holly cities & considers it self to be leader of Muslim & Arab world it still wouldn't go up against the Israelis - as witnessed during the Arab-Israel Wars. The Americans have too much of an influence there (similarly Americans wouldn't want Israel to do something to the KSA ... however Israel would least regard it if they have to).


just a correction , KSA participated in all Arab-israeli wars with its military. the USA has no influence whatsoever on KSA's military decisions on that regard.

[SABRE]

just a correction , KSA participated in all Arab-israeli wars with its military. the USA has no influence whatsoever on KSA's military decisions on that regard.

I don't want to get into political debate & also this would be off topic. Just talking on the basis of international war literature based on Arab-Israel wars.

As for American influence ... neither I want to talk nor there is a need.

Thats the end of this discussion.

[abhaystgy]

What if extramists somehow get the all the parts required for exploding nuclear bomb and then by the help of one(or more) of the Pakistan's nuclear scientist they can assemble it? Then they can launch attack on whichever country they want to attack (India or USA).

[layer3]

What if extramists somehow get the all the parts required for exploding nuclear bomb and then by the help of one(or more) of the Pakistan's nuclear scientist they can assemble it? Then they can launch attack on whichever country they want to attack (India or USA).

It above happens then I would say Bad luck. Can you please explain how that somehow works. The only way I can think of above happening if terrorists find a Missile loaded with a nuke a couple blocks down the street with a note of FIRE ME PLEASE on top of it.

I think chances of that happening with Pak's Nuke is same as much as with any other country possesing the similar capabilities. I don't think any one can argue with never ending WHAT IF senarios.

It really amuses me with the fact that the countries which feel threatened already have more sophisticated weaponary.

Well the solution I guess in that scenario would be an advertisement in newspaper for the job of James Bond. :nutkick

[Stryker001]

No one liners or one words or codes.

Removed as per DT rules.

[abhaystgy]

Actually thought about this scenario came into my mind from movies only. Extremists can attack a place where the nuke is actually stored and took control over it. Then they can take the help of come scientists to make it operational. Then they can easily threaten any enemy country or they can sell the same to some friendly country.

Hope this will never happen. Otherwise atleast one country will have to suffer a lot.

[Stryker001]

OFF TOPIC

No dicussion on Iran nuclear issue here, unless relevant to the topic of the thread.

Removed as per DT rules.

[Stryker001]

OFF TOPIC

Removed as per DT rules.

[SABRE]

It above happens then I would say Bad luck. Can you please explain how that somehow works. The only way I can think of above happening if terrorists find a Missile loaded with a nuke a couple blocks down the street with a note of FIRE ME PLEASE on top of it.



Even if they find it, with the note you are mentioning on it, they still can't fire it for several hundred reasons. With 1st the launch capability & even with that they wont be able to fire it since they wont have neither knowledge to work out the complex mechanism & computer system nor will they have launch codes.

Its not a fire cracker you can ignite from the rim & off it goes.

[SABRE]

Actually thought about this scenario came into my mind from movies only. Extremists can attack a place where the nuke is actually stored and took control over it. Then they can take the help of come scientists to make it operational. Then they can easily threaten any enemy country or they can sell the same to some friendly country.

Hope this will never happen. Otherwise atleast one country will have to suffer a lot.

Movies do defy the reality you do know that.

Unlike movies the terrorists would be facing a stiff resistance from a much larger force securing the weapons with way much advance weapons.

Attacking a place with get them where? The weapons are for sure kept in a multi-layered security facility with bio-matrix system required for authorized personnel. The most damage the terrorists can do is blow up the gate of the facility - that is if they know where it is. But even before that they would probably be facing aerial attacks & commando actions.

Unlike the American nuclear missiles during the Cold War the Pakistani missiles are not kept launch on alarm ready. Even they warheads are kept aside. This means the weapons are not 'deployed' outside or under the open skies.

[layer3]

Movies do defy the reality you do know that.
Unlike the American nuclear missiles during the Cold War the Pakistani missiles are not kept launch on alarm ready. Even they warheads are kept aside. This means the weapons are not 'deployed' outside or under the open skies.

I know nukes are not fire crackers which can be set off. I was just mocking the innocent scenario.

Interesting point you made which made me think a couple of WHAT IFs.
The US is still having assembled nukes with delivery systems, I will back up my claim with the last year's incident where some nuclear warhead loaded cruise missiles were accidently plugged to an aircraft (A not ideal text book example of US Nuclear safety).

then my what ifs would be:

What if the pilot had decided to test the accuracy of missile (Considering him completely dumb).
What if that mission would have been a live test run exercise.

How can people and media feel secure with their own nukes flying above their heads without any one's knowledge while feeling threatened by some unrealistic danger. To my knowledge it didn't stirr up any major debate with media circles maybe due to sensitivity of incident (A typical dual standards).

I know I am going off the topic but the only reason I went ahead is simply because I am sick of all the posts which appear in any Pakistan related threads fearing of technology transfer to either China or terrorists.

These kind of posts put the thread off topic and then as a novice I don't see enough information flowing out of discussion afterwards. :lul

[SABRE]

I know nukes are not fire crackers which can be set off. I was just mocking the innocent scenario.

I was doing the same. In fact continuing your mocking. I guess I didn't bridge it :D

Interesting point you made which made me think a couple of WHAT IFs.
The US is still having assembled nukes with delivery systems, I will back up my claim with the last year's incident where some nuclear warhead loaded cruise missiles were accidentally plugged to an aircraft (A not ideal text book example of US Nuclear safety).

then my what ifs would be:

What if the pilot had decided to test the accuracy of missile (Considering him completely dumb).
What if that mission would have been a live test run exercise.

Its the "What ifs" that the major factor of nuclear weapons. They create the deterrence which prevails in negative peace. But to above "What ifs" the answer is obvious: Mass Destruction.

If the bomb had went on my question would be how good US National Technical Means are to asses if it was nuclear accident at it's on fault or an external activity?

Pakistan & India have established a hot line for this very purpose, just to make sure of nuclear accidents. Even if they launch nukes on each other I think they would be calling each other to say good bye - information till the last seconds.

How can people and media feel secure with their own nukes flying above their heads without any one's knowledge while feeling threatened by some unrealistic danger. To my knowledge it didn't stirr up any major debate with media circles maybe due to sensitivity of incident (A typical dual standards).

Well think about it & the answer is obvious. Which country would allow its media to talk on such a thing? Plus Media wouldn't like to degrade nuclear security of its own state.

I know I am going off the topic but the only reason I went ahead is simply because I am sick of all the posts which appear in any Pakistan related threads fearing of technology transfer to either China or terrorists.

These kind of posts put the thread off topic and then as a novice I don't see enough information flowing out of discussion afterwards. :lul


Well thats the whole reason I opened this thread. To give away the information I got (& get) from one of my teachers who is closely associated with the subject of Pakistan's nuclear security.

[DefConGuru]

Indirectly applying that Pakistan's intelligence and nuclear defense is on par with a terror attack led by tribal fighters from the north or even your average Al Qaida operative is a gross indication of where one's intent and judgment has gone off course to. For the most part, the reason that this debate is happening is because 99% of people don't know Pakistan's capabilities because Pakistan doesn't tell anyone, its kept secret and millions of dollars are spent safeguarding the nuke's each day in a way where not even a highly motivated and ingenious group of thieves with the right technology could break its perimeter. This is a much different situation than post Soviet union, and Pakistan isn't exactly Iran or North Korea. The nukes are integrated in a maze of security apparatuses which is highly underground and kept in shadows, with the slightest knowledge of anything going wrong resulting in commando raids and complete lock down. Trust me they take it seriously, or else half the world would have been on their doorstep decades ago, and India and Pakistan would be cities of rubble.

Go find other ways to exercise your imaginations people.

[Stryker001]

This is a much different situation than post Soviet union.

After the former Soviet Union was, disbanded Alpha Group still was given top funding to secure Russia’s nuclear arsenal and reactors.

[noseeum]

I do not think it a matter of stealing weapons from secure facilities. It seems to be a matter of stability within the Pakistani system in general. If there is widespread unrest, who secures the nukes? If there are breakdowns within the system, how can the world be certain there will not be multiple factions with access to same? There is almost no imagination which will give Al-Qaida or tribals credible ability to steal nukes as they are, but ISI has holes. Big extremist holes. Given current system condition, the question is really what happens when the current regime fails in the next year or so. Next question is what the world is willing to do to assure security.

[BilalK]

I do not think it a matter of stealing weapons from secure facilities. It seems to be a matter of stability within the Pakistani system in general. If there is widespread unrest, who secures the nukes? If there are breakdowns within the system, how can the world be certain there will not be multiple factions with access to same? There is almost no imagination which will give Al-Qaida or tribals credible ability to steal nukes as they are, but ISI has holes. Big extremist holes. Given current system condition, the question is really what happens when the current regime fails in the next year or so. Next question is what the world is willing to do to assure security.
Rule number 1...separate national security systems from politics. The military is just too large and too extensive to let a break down of their system...and they will not let anything that threatens their interests take over Pakistan. The establishment of NSC guarantees it.

[SABRE]

I do not think it a matter of stealing weapons from secure facilities. It seems to be a matter of stability within the Pakistani system in general. If there is widespread unrest, who secures the nukes? If there are breakdowns within the system, how can the world be certain there will not be multiple factions with access to same? There is almost no imagination which will give Al-Qaida or tribals credible ability to steal nukes as they are, but ISI has holes. Big extremist holes. Given current system condition, the question is really what happens when the current regime fails in the next year or so. Next question is what the world is willing to do to assure security.

Let me tell you something. There is no question about nukes falling in the wrong hands. Nukes are in the hands of National Command Authority. The question is can NCA fall in the wrong hands? The answer is NO. NCA is a collective decision making group where members selected through Personality Reliability Program. Even if you hate India at an extreme level you would be dropped.

Since its a collective decision making body no single entity or individual can enforce his will. So even if an extremist govt comes to power, which is highly unlikely - considering the demographic & political setup, the ruler (who ever it may be) can not force the NCA to launch the missiles.

There are 5 steps Pakistan has taken after 1998 tests:

1. Established NCA
2. Security measures
3. Safety measure - Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority created
4. Technology Control
5. Dilaogue with India

The safety & security measures have been kept at extreme level since 1998. There is no possible way of breaching either safety or security or both together - without getting your self killed even before you get the glimpse of either the warhead or the missile.

[TANK DRIFTER]

Thnx alot sabre that u increased my knowledge........
m very glad that u xplained it very well

[mysterious]

Mod edit:

Religous debates of any kind are specifically banned here. If you want to post rubbish like this. Find somewhere else to do it.

AD

[funtz]

Mod edit:

No further reason to laugh. The post has been removed.

AD

[mysterious]

Mod edit:

No more indeed.

AD

[Aliph Ahmed]

Did Pakistan experiment with any P3s or are P2s doing the job sufficiently ?

I remember reading Pakistan buying ring magnets for the centrifuges from China and I also remember reading that the P2s shown to IAEA do not employ ring magnets.

I believe that Pakistan is ahead of India in terms of Centrifuge technology by atleast 20 years based on the fact that even the Indians started off their limited program running by buying from AQ Nerwork.

Any confirmation of general value will be much appreciated.

[funtz]

"The Pot Calling The Kettle Black" holds true to date.

Not that hard to believe when you have George Bush proclaiming that God wanted him to attack Iraq to bring democracy, that God has a mission for him and what not. Current leading republican in the primaries John McCain is no better as is Mike Huckabee. Alright, no more politics, lets stick to the nuclear proliferation aspect of things.

If you have the address of his office do share it, would like to write a letter, cause this is absolutly classic.
(Mr. Brig. Gen. Atta M. Iqhman) that is.

[SABRE]

Did Pakistan experiment with any P3s or are P2s doing the job sufficiently ?

I remember reading Pakistan buying ring magnets for the centrifuges from China and I also remember reading that the P2s shown to IAEA do not employ ring magnets.

I believe that Pakistan is ahead of India in terms of Centrifuge technology by atleast 20 years based on the fact that even the Indians started off their limited program running by buying from AQ Nerwork.

Any confirmation of general value will be much appreciated.

Information on operational activities are very hard to get. I doubt anyone can answer your questions.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Indian official warns over Pakistan nukes: report
NEW DELHI, Feb 18 (AFP) Feb 18, 2008

India should be deeply concerned about the possibility of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of extremists, a top official was reported as saying Monday.

"The nature of the dangers which nuclear weapons pose has dramatically intensified with the growing risk that such weapons may be acquired by terrorists..." Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's special envoy Shyam Saran said.

"The mounting concern over the likelihood that in a situation of chaos, Pakistan's nuclear assets may fall into the hands of jihadi elements... underscores how real this danger has become," Saran was quoted as saying by the Press Trust of India at a lecture in New Delhi.

"India has to be deeply concerned about the danger it faces" from this "new and growing threat," said Saran, who was India's top diplomat until 2006.

The United States and other Western countries have expressed mounting concern over the security of Islamabad's estimated 50 warheads, with Pakistani forces battling a growing insurgency by Al-Qaeda-linked militants.

Pakistan said last month that it had tightened security around all its nuclear facilities.

The south Asian rivals have fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947 and conducted tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998.

http://www.spacewar.com/2006/080218180019.xn52a8ed.html


With all those approximately ( TEN ) 10 insurgencies going on in India and yet they still have some nerve to express concern about Pakistan !!

:lul

[mysterious]

I guess we will have to wait and see a similar rebuttal by Brig. Gen. Atta M. Iqhman of these concerns as he conducted with regards to US concerns.

[SABRE]

The thread was started for questions on Pakistan Nuclear Weapons for a specific duration which has passed & some members seem to be diverting the whole idea behind the thread. So I am closing the thread for now. It will be available for reading purpose though.