Russia To Build Over 4,500 Aircraft By 2025

[XaNDeR]

MOSCOW, August 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russia is planning to manufacture more than 4,500 civilian and military aircraft by 2025, worth $250 billion, the head of the Russian aircraft manufacturing mega-holding said Wednesday.

"We are planning to build over 4,500 aircraft, both civilian and military, under contracts totaling $250 billion [by 2025]," said Alexei Fyodorov, general director of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC).

UAC is a majority state-owned corporation consolidating aircraft-building companies and state assets engaged in the manufacture, design, and sale of military, civilian, transport, and unmanned aircraft.

According to Fyodorov, the Russian aircraft industry will shift the future focus from manufacturing military aircraft to building civilian planes, including passenger planes and heavy transport aircraft.

"While the current manufacturing ratio is seven military aircraft to every civilian aircraft, by 2025 we will be making two civilian planes to each military plane," the official said.

Fyodorov, who also heads Russia's MiG corporation, said by 2025, Russia will be producing about 300 civilian aircraft, 100 transport and special-purpose planes and 100 military aircraft every year.

UAC has also determined the forms and the amount of direct annual investment into Russia's aircraft manufacturing industry for the next three years.

"We have decided to make a direct annual investment in the aircraft industry to the amount of 6 billion rubles ($235 million) during 2008, 2009, and 2010," Fyodorov said.

The state will also contribute to the development of the industry with subsidies worth billions of rubles allocated directly to aircraft manufacturers rather than air carriers as it used to be in the past.

UAC, which was formed in 2006 to help overcome the crisis in Russia's aircraft industry, incorporates many of the country's best-known aircraft builders, including Mikoyan, Ilyushin, Irkut, Sukhoi, Tupolev, and Yakovlev, and other enterprises in the industry.

Fyodorov said the holding would finalize the strategy for the development of Russia's aircraft manufacturing industry by the end of 2007.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070815/71658762.html



First they say they will build 6 Carriers , 12 Borei SSBN , and many new class SSN including alot surface combatants including new Frigate class , new corvette class etc.
Now they claim they will build 4500 aircraft by 2025 , these plans sound almost imposible , though the economy is growing fast , yet still its a very big number.

[Chrom]

First they say they will build 6 Carriers , 12 Borei SSBN , and many new class SSN including alot surface combatants including new Frigate class , new corvette class etc.
Now they claim they will build 4500 aircraft by 2025 , these plans sound almost imposible , though the economy is growing fast , yet still its a very big number.

USSR was building a lot more than that. Even if Russia reach only 1/3 former USSR capability it will be more than enouth for these numbers.

[XaNDeR]

USSR was building a lot more than that. Even if Russia reach only 1/3 former USSR capability it will be more than enouth for these numbers.

Thats true but if you count that 2000 of those planes will be military then you got a huge number , and the new aircraft like Su-34 and more likely PAK-FA , PAK-DA etc. will cost huge amounts of money and even if they plan about 500 of those its a huge huge amount of money. Just look at the USAF , first they planed alot more F-22 now the number is reduced to less than 200, do you really think then that Russia will produce 500 Pak-Fa's ?

[rjmaz1]

Thats true but if you count that 2000 of those planes will be military then you got a huge number , and the new aircraft like Su-34 and more likely PAK-FA , PAK-DA etc. will cost huge amounts of money and even if they plan about 500 of those its a huge huge amount of money. Just look at the USAF , first they planed alot more F-22 now the number is reduced to less than 200, do you really think then that Russia will produce 500 Pak-Fa's ?
The F-22 program was a mistake known as the death spiral. The F-22 can now perform so many extra roles, if this was known at the start it would have changed other programs. In fact the F-35 may have never got off the ground if the F-22 was going to perform the "strike" mission from the start.

The death spiral can easily be prevented. If something runs 20% over budget you cant buy fewer aircraft to fit into the original budget. This then puts the indiviual aircraft price up and now its back to 10% over budget.. You then order less again so it fits the original budget and then the price of each aircraft goes up and its 5% over budget. Etc.

You end up with so few new F-22 aircraft that you are forced to keep older F-15 aircraft to make up numbers. Now the budget gets blown up completely as having F-15's will cost much more than the original 20% budget increase.

With the F-22 money should have been found and they should have ordered 500 aircraft. When the yearly production bill comes up, if they dont have enough money retire some F-15's, F-16's and F-117's.

Russia is smarter than the US as they dont have politicians running the show. You'll never see a death spiral in Russian aviation.

[AntiBond007]

Russia is smarter than the US as they dont have politicians running the show.

Hehe, as a Russian, I can tell you that most of this statments are more for politcal purposes than anything else. It doesn't really matter if they can do it, what matters is if Russians believe it. Its trying to pound its chest, mostly for the consumption of its own population. Patriotism is of key importance to Russia, and spreading the image of an all powerful Army is vital. No one will remember in 10 years who promised what, and if push comes to shove, they can always "bend" the truth, as oversight is nonexistant. Many people who lived in the Soviet Union are familiar with this tactics. All these recent actions by Russia (i.e North Pole expedition etc) are just a show. People need to understand that reality is quite different from the image their trying to project. Unless the Army changed head to toe in the last 1.5 years, believe me when I say its not exactly a well oiled machine, but that doesn't matter, only image matters.

[KGB]

Or in other words Putin's wants to look successful when he retires. We better avoid eating sushi now;)

[f-22fan12]

Just because Russia SAYS it will build all these things doesn't mean Russia will. I seriously doubt that many aircraft carriers and SSBNs will be built. Their economy is growing fast so they might be able to build HALF of all that.

[f-22fan12]

The F-22 program was a mistake known as the death spiral. The F-22 can now perform so many extra roles, if this was known at the start it would have changed other programs. In fact the F-35 may have never got off the ground if the F-22 was going to perform the "strike" mission from the start.

The death spiral can easily be prevented. If something runs 20% over budget you cant buy fewer aircraft to fit into the original budget. This then puts the indiviual aircraft price up and now its back to 10% over budget.. You then order less again so it fits the original budget and then the price of each aircraft goes up and its 5% over budget. Etc.

You end up with so few new F-22 aircraft that you are forced to keep older F-15 aircraft to make up numbers. Now the budget gets blown up completely as having F-15's will cost much more than the original 20% budget increase.

With the F-22 money should have been found and they should have ordered 500 aircraft. When the yearly production bill comes up, if they dont have enough money retire some F-15's, F-16's and F-117's.

Russia is smarter than the US as they dont have politicians running the show. You'll never see a death spiral in Russian aviation.

I firmly believe that the F-22 program was NOT a mistake. The F-22 is needed to maintain U.S. air superiority for decades to come. Yes, it went over budget, but don't all government programs go over budget? The F-22s main mission is air superiority and it can also perform strike missions. But the USAF wants more than 1000 strike aircraft. The USAF can't afford 1000 F-22s for strike missions.

The F-22 rules the sky. :usa

[contedicavour]

Just because Russia SAYS it will build all these things doesn't mean Russia will. I seriously doubt that many aircraft carriers and SSBNs will be built. Their economy is growing fast so they might be able to build HALF of all that.

:usa

... and I'm still waiting for somebody to explain to me how the Russian air force can maintain current strength levels... even supposing they can build 1000 military planes from now 'til 2025, it would only be enough to replace the current number of fighters+bombers+trainers+troop transports.

It's a bit like the USN announcing that in the next 30 years they will build 12 CVNs, 18 boomers, 50 SSNs, 50 DDGs, 800 fighters ;) Yes of course, but this is what's needed to replace existing numbers...

cheers

[f-22fan12]

... and I'm still waiting for somebody to explain to me how the Russian air force can maintain current strength levels... even supposing they can build 1000 military planes from now 'til 2025, it would only be enough to replace the current number of fighters+bombers+trainers+troop transports.

It's a bit like the USN announcing that in the next 30 years they will build 12 CVNs, 18 boomers, 50 SSNs, 50 DDGs, 800 fighters ;) Yes of course, but this is what's needed to replace existing numbers...

cheers

I also think that there is no way for Russia to maintain its current airforce and army strength. Do you think Russia could buy 9,000 more T-72 tanks? NO. Or Hundreds more Su-27s. NO.

[contedicavour]

I also think that there is no way for Russia to maintain its current airforce and army strength. Do you think Russia could buy 9,000 more T-72 tanks? NO. Or Hundreds more Su-27s. NO.

And there you're mentioning relatively modern material.
I see more weaknesses in fighterbomber role (MIG29 and SU27 with R77 are good enough for another 15 years for pure fighter role). SU24s were wonderful fighterbombers in the '90s but are getting old now. MIG23/27 and SU22 haven't been replaced in sufficient numbers. I'd give priority to buying more SU30 like they export to India instead of building SU34 (cost-efficiency ratio-wise it would make more sense).
Regarding the army, I see armoured tank divisions and SAMs as points of excellence. Even if every 3 T72 there is a new T80/90 it's still enough if you compare with the reduction in MBT numbers in places like Germany. However there aren't enough replacements (actually none since MI-28 isn't being produced) for MI-24 Hinds, and the stock of APCs and AIFVs is growing old (BTR60/70/80 and BMP-1/2) and has been severely used in Chechnia.
Regarding the navy, all FFGs except the 7 border guard Krivak-III and the 1 Neustrashimy are completely obsolete. There are only a dozen operational DDGs between Sovremmenny and Udaloy. So even if a lot of work is being done for new SSBNs and SSNs and there are plans for new carriers, the bulk of the fleet needs about 25 new type 20380/22380 ships real fast.

cheers

[ZeroOne]

hmmm...

the way I see it "military aircraft" might mean anything from an UAV to the Tu-160. Also, they didn't claim Russia would be buying all of the production, quite a number will be exported regardless of Russia's acquirement possibilities.

So, 100 military aircraft per year really doesn't sound excessive to me.

[contedicavour]

Putin has just announced that as of midnight 4 strategic bombers plus several refueling planes will restart strategic flights 24h/24 over Russian skies. This had been suspended in 1992.
Beyond obsolete TU95 and 20 or so TU160 what else does the Russian air force call "strategic bomber" ? It isn't easy to keep 4 bombers permanently in the air isn't it ?

cheers

[ZeroOne]

Putin has just announced that as of midnight 4 strategic bombers plus several refueling planes will restart strategic flights 24h/24 over Russian skies. This had been suspended in 1992.
Beyond obsolete TU95 and 20 or so TU160 what else does the Russian air force call "strategic bomber" ? It isn't easy to keep 4 bombers permanently in the air isn't it ?

cheers

There should be 200-300 strategic bombers (Tu160/Tu95/Tu22) still operative, but it seems like a crazy stunt to pull. I do hope Russia doesn't bomb the Lomonosov ridge or anything like that. :)

[kato]

the way I see it "military aircraft" might mean anything from an UAV to the Tu-160. Also, they didn't claim Russia would be buying all of the production, quite a number will be exported regardless of Russia's acquirement possibilities.

That's what i was thinking too. For all we know, half of those could be COIN cropdusters for export alone.

[swerve]

That's what i was thinking too. For all we know, half of those could be COIN cropdusters for export alone.

Yes, and that's the annual production by 2025. It doesn't say that'll be the average production until then, & the tone (increasing production . . . ) suggests it won't be.

The figures ound feasible, but 1) that is not the same thing as certain, & 2) the figures still imply that Russias air forces will continue to decline rapidly in numbers. Most current aircraft, even with life extensions, will have to retire by 2025.

[LancerMc]

Currently the Russian Air Force is going to be spending a lot of its money modernizing their combat fleet of MiG-29's and Su-27/30's.

It is developing a new 5th generation fighter with Sukhoi but when and if it enters service is still a big question. The aircraft is only in an early design phase.

Attune to current defense spending by Russia they will not build 4,500 new aircraft by 2025 and is it is very likely they could not afford that unless they increase defense spending dramatically.

Current spending trends are to updating the twin engine fighter fleet, buying new aircraft like the Su-34, Mil-28, Ka-52, a new light transport, and updating the Tu-160 fleet. Eventually if Sukhoi produces the new fighter the Russian AF will start buying that aircraft.

[Chrom]

Currently the Russian Air Force is going to be spending a lot of its money modernizing their combat fleet of MiG-29's and Su-27/30's.

It is developing a new 5th generation fighter with Sukhoi but when and if it enters service is still a big question. The aircraft is only in an early design phase.

Attune to current defense spending by Russia they will not build 4,500 new aircraft by 2025 and is it is very likely they could not afford that unless they increase defense spending dramatically.

Current spending trends are to updating the twin engine fighter fleet, buying new aircraft like the Su-34, Mil-28, Ka-52, a new light transport, and updating the Tu-160 fleet. Eventually if Sukhoi produces the new fighter the Russian AF will start buying that aircraft.


You are wrong if you think what the number reffered to PAK-FA/Tu-160/IL-96 aircraft type. For example, small An-2 like civilian aircraft cost less than 800.000$, and for all i know Russia might build a lot of them. New civilian Su-100 is planned to be build in high 100s number in next 10 years alone. So, without telling WHAT aircraft type these numbers might be great overestimation OR great understimation.

[Aussie]

Currently the Russian Air Force is going to be spending a lot of its money modernizing their combat fleet of MiG-29's and Su-27/30's.

It is developing a new 5th generation fighter with Sukhoi but when and if it enters service is still a big question. The aircraft is only in an early design phase.

What is the definition of "5th generation"? Stealth?

The Su-35 being unveiled at MAKS next week is no mere "4th generation" plane. The only thing it has in common with the Su-27 is the basic airframe design. Minus the lack of stealth, is it really that far behind the F-22 in capability?

[kato]

The figures ound feasible, but 1) that is not the same thing as certain, & 2) the figures still imply that Russias air forces will continue to decline rapidly in numbers. Most current aircraft, even with life extensions, will have to retire by 2025.

I think the numbers are screwed deliberately.

If we assume a progressive shift from military to civilian production, the whole thing boils down to about 65% average military production until 2025 (yes, i calculated it, that's not a random figure). Out of 4,500 aircraft to be produced in total, that's 2,950 military aircraft. Now guess how many aircraft the Russian Airforce currently operates. Exactly, "about 3,000".

[FSMonster]

These numbers are superficial. Virtually anything could be designated as either civilian or a military 'aircraft'. We're talking about a 17-year old time span in which these numbers aren't all that unattainable.

I would be very interested to know if Russia is planning to increase it's manufacturing base by opening new assembly plants and factories.
There appear to be plenty of customers for their military planes and there's lots of room in the civilian market, but the question is whether the newly consolidated industry can even deliver?

[Jade]

Putin vows to establish leadership in aircraft manufacture


Vladimir Radyuhin




MOSCOW: President Vladimir Putin kicked off Russia’s biggest post-Soviet air show on Tuesday vowing to use oil windfall to boost the plane-building and other high-tech industries.

Opening the MAKS-2007 international airshow in Zhukovsky near Moscow Mr. Putin called on Russian aircraft manufacturers to “more actively enter the world market for passenger and transport aircraft with competitive products” and “retain leadership in producing combat aircraft”.

“Russia has new economic possibilities and will use them to prioritise high-tech sectors.”

The six-day airshow will showcase Russia’s latest military aircraft, including MiG-35, Su-35, and MiG-29K built for the Indian Navy, as well as helicopters and civilian planes.

More than 780 domestic and foreign producers from 110 countries are participating in the biennial event.

Russia, which once accounted for a quarter of global aircraft production, last year rolled out 26 civilian aircraft.

However, the United Aircraft Corporation set up earlier this year plans to overtake Boeing and Airbus in two decades, and manufacture 300 airliners, 100 transport planes and more than 100 combat aircraft a year by 2025. On the opening day of MAKS-2007, Rosoboronexport signed a $350-million contract with Indonesia for the supply of six Sukhoi fighters.

Organisers hope this year’s airshow will bring in more deals. than the record MAKS-2005, when contracts worth $1 billion were signed.

[Wall83]

Yeah right, 4 500 by 2025 :D .
With the russian economy they should be glad if they be able to build no more then 500. They arent even able to build ten Su-34 a year at this point.

Military aircraft that may be constructed by the year 2025.
~200 Su-34
~200 PAKFA (If they ever get the project off the ground)
~8-10 Tu-160

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Military aircraft that may be constructed by the year 2025.
~200 Su-34
~200 PAKFA (If they ever get the project off the ground)
~8-10 Tu-160

Which is an impressive force structure for any air force. The days of a 2000+ fighter force are long gone, and boasting of a return to those days seem to be emotively driven at best.

[Wall83]

The biggest problem with russian miltary production is basicly money. There are just not enough. With that sad it is still very strange that russia cant build more aircraft a year then it does.
If you compare it with china who construcs about 100 fighters a year russia is far behind. You can see this in all fields, submarines, fighters, tanks, helikopters ecs.

[F-15 Eagle]

Which is an impressive force structure for any air force. The days of a 2000+ fighter force are long gone, and boasting of a return to those days seem to be emotively driven at best.

That is not true at all, there are more than 2400 combat aircraft in service with Russia. To say the days of a 2000+ fighter force is gone is a pretty blank statement with no facts to back it up. People say Russia will build 200 PAK-FA but that is not based off of any facts, with around 900 fighters in service with the VVS, that should give a good idea about how many T-50's Russia might build, but we will have to wait to see how many they really build. Russia palns for 200 SU-34's to replace some 300 SU-24s and 300 YAK-130 to replace 255 Su-25. The U.S. alone plans to build 2458 F-35s to replace F-15/16/18s and A-10 and AV-8B.

[Salty Dog]

The biggest problem with russian miltary production is basicly money. There are just not enough. With that sad it is still very strange that russia cant build more aircraft a year then it does.
If you compare it with china who construcs about 100 fighters a year russia is far behind. You can see this in all fields, submarines, fighters, tanks, helikopters ecs.

I believe the problem with Russian military production is more infrastructure rather than money. Aircraft manufacturing plants require new machines and tooling to build airframes, assemblies, avionics, etc. These machines are very expensive and not easy to come by. In post Soviet Union / Cold War Russia, much of the infrastructure especially for advanced fighters with sophisticated material has fallen by the wayside as requirements and a previous financial crisis stagnated the industry. The aero engineers, skilled machinists, electronics techs, etc, retired and were not replaced. All this has led to delays in RDT&E, reduced production of replacements for the current Russian fleet as well as for Russian aircraft customers (India for example), etc.

I have not seen any new projects from Russia. PAK-FA is still just a paper project and the Su-35/Mig-35 are just upgrades of the Su-27/Mig-29. Tu-160 has no follow-on and aging Tu-95/Tu22 are kept with upgrades.

[KGB]

The intention was to eventually produce 2 civilian aircraft for every military aircraft. This doesn't sound so much like a plan to rebuild the air force. It sound like the intention is to rebuild the aerospace industry and sustain it by taking some market share from Boeing, Airbus etc. That, and the sales of military aircraft would help stabilize their aircraft industry's base. That would make good business, as the amount of air travel worldwide continues to increase.

[B-2_Bomber101]

we should let them but force then into an allience or we should not but spy on them with a spy satalite

[kamikazeranger]

thats right, if russia gets ahold of good aircraft techno then we wil suiffer

[Wall83]

The russians must start buliding planes in high numbers in the next comming years, otherwise the russian airforce will be totaly gone by 2025-2030.
If they start cunstructing 100 fighters a year from 2009 they will have 1600 planes by 2025. I dont think this is gonna happen and dont think the future russian air force will consist of more then max 700-1000 aircraft.

[Feanor]

I would disagree. Given that the Su-27 and MiG-29 are a bit younger then the teen series American fighter jets, and given that a large number of these aircraft are stored at storage bases because of lack of funds for keeping the units operational, it's quite possible to maintain current air force strength for some time. The question of course comes to mind; what next? The current Russian air force is far larger then what a country like Russia realistically needs.

We need to give up the stereotype of the Russian super power, and realize that Russia is at best a regional power with a large nuclear arsenal. It doesn't have a global network of alliances, nor a force projecting naval presence. The current military size, in my opinion, is too large and too poorly organized. While it's quite possible that Russia will indeed build over 4000 aircraft (the Su-30 Super Flanker alone has been produced in numbers close to 500 over the last decade) this doesn't mean that the Russian air force will grow, or shrink.

In essence only time will show what will happen to the Russian air force and aerospace industry.