China Military build-up includes missiles, jets, warships

[kashifshahzad]

Reuters
Jul 20, 2005, 05:42


WASHINGTON (Reuters): China not only is massing forces facing Taiwan, but developing new long-range missiles and acquiring an arsenal of sophisticated jets and warships in an ambitious arms build-up, the United States said on Tuesday.

Over the "next several years", Beijing will deploy a DF-31 road-mobile, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, the Pentagon said in an annual report to Congress on Chinese military power.

The current military focus by the People's Liberation Army stresses protecting Chinese borders and waters and intimidating Taiwan, according to the 44-page report, which lists a broad range of new armaments from fighter jets to submarines.

Here is a breakdown of some of weapons listed and a look at efforts by Beijing's huge PLA ground forces to slim down and mobilize:

Ballistic missiles:

About 650-730 mobile CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range missiles in coastal garrisons opposite Taiwan. Deployment is increasing by about 100 missiles a year, including improved range and accuracy in newer versions.

The military is also modernizing its longer-range missile fleet with newer, more survivable versions including the mobile DF-31 and JL-2.

Air Power:

More than 700 aircraft within un-refueled operational range of Taiwan. Many are outdated, but Beijing continues acquiring sleek fighters from Russia, including the Su-30MKK multi-role and Su-Mk2 maritime strike aircraft.

New jet acquisitions are augmenting previous deliveries of Su-27 fighters and China is building its own version of the Su-27SK, the F-11, under agreement with Moscow.

Improvements to older FB-7 fighters will give them nighttime maritime strike capability and China has programs underway to deploy new protective electronic jammers on bombers, transports, tactical aircraft and unmanned spy planes.

The PLA is also acquiring from abroad, or developing at home, advanced precision strike weapons such as cruise missiles and air-to-air, air-to-surface and radar-destroying munitions.

Naval Power:

Includes 64 major surface warships, 55 attack submarines, 40 medium and heavy amphibious lift vessels and about 50 coastal missile patrol craft. Two-thirds of the fleet is located in the East and South Sea fleets.

China has deployed two new Russian-made Sovremennyy class guided-missile destroyers in the East Sea Fleet and an additional two are under contract. All are fitted with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles and air defense systems.

China's Song class diesel electric submarine has entered serial production. Last year, China launched a new diesel submarine, the Yuan class, and it is expected to field its next-generation nuclear attack submarine, the Type 093. this year.

Beijing is also acquiring eight additional Kilo class diesel electric submarines from Russia in addition to four previously-purchased boats. The new subs will include advanced SS-N-27 anti-ship cruise missiles and and wire-guided and wake-seeking torpedoes.

Ground Forces:

China has 375,000 troops deployed to three military regions opposite Taiwan and has been upgrading those units with amphibious armor and military vehicles, including tanks.

The PLA is expected to complete another round of downsizing -- slashing 200,000 troops by the end of this year -- to bring the size of the PLA to about 2.3 million, according to official statistics. But the pentagon said paramilitary, police and reserves boost that figure to 3.2 million.

China's 2004 Defense White Paper noted that China can also draw upon more than 10 million organized militia members.

The Army acquired additional M1-17/171 medium-lift helicopters from Russia last year and is developing its own attack helicopter, the Z-10, which could enter service in 2014.



URL of this article:
http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/article_002698.php

Why US is afraid of China US must build friendly relations with the developing ecnomic and militery power which is present in Asia this will be benificial for both the regions the North America and the Asia if some thing happens then the results can be so dangrous caz the russia and China on one side and US on the other this will be a crual game not like the US Vs Iraq or Afghanistan.

[Pathfinder-X]

China will never have the capability to challenge the US in the next 20 years if it continues its military build up and the US sits like idle .
Actually China is preparing its arsenal against another Asian giant , India .

Chinese are masters of deception , they are hooping about Taiwan in order to conceal their real intentions . Chinese are no fools , they are not going to bring their destruction by attacking Taiwan ( and US).

The next major Indo-Pak conflict will escalate into a Indo-China conflict which will determine the fate of south, east and south-east asia .

:duel

Just to point out a few obvious facts here. It seems Indian and Chinese are suffering from paranoia from the modernization of militaries of both sides.

1. China most capable forces are deployed near Taiwan. On the Indian boarder there are only a few light infantry divisions and several obsolete J-6 fight squadron.

2. Secondly, India is alot stronger than ROC both in terms of economic and military power. Both sides have nothing to gain, but everything to lose by starting another war.

3. When PLA were evaluating their airlift capability few years back, they only managed to get 20,000 troops ready for combat in Tibet within a week. Clearly at that speed, any element of suprise will be lost in a war with India.

[kashifshahzad]

Why you people think that China is afraid of India.
China was never afraid and will never be.
China is maintaining ICBM's,IRBM's,huge no. of troops from a long periond of time why you people think China is preparing to attack India.
What one increases its troops airforce then it only gains some more enemies which are bigger then of its size.
Can you imagine what would happen when China,Russia,Germeny,France on one side and US and UK on one side THINK

[UnarmedSoldier]

Don't u think it would be rather stupid to attack a nuclear power ? Granted the indians wouldn't be able to threaten the rich and populous south-east China but still, why do it and leave yourself open to attack by somebody else (read USA).

[mysterious]

I dont understand how a thread about Chinese military buildup turns in to a self-boasting Indian capability thread! Coming to the topic, I'd say China's current goal is re-unification of Taiwan and keep check on regional hegemony from other countries while peacefully building up its own economic power to sustain its military expenditures. Motto here cud be, 'Rise slowly but surely'!

[abramsteve]

I'm not being sarcastic, but why do China and India want to compete with each other. I can see no reason why either side would wish to attack each other, so why would they bother competing with one-another when both have bigger problems to worry about.

Could someone please inform me

[highsea]

Both countries have animosities that date back to the cold war. China built a nuclear arsenal that could strike at India. India countered by building her own nukes. China countered by helping Pakistan get nukes.There have been border clashes, disputed territories, etc. China is Pakistan's ally, and Pakistan and India have been at odds for 50 years.

Both countries are growing and seek to expand their regional influence. Both countries are facing energy shortfalls in the next 20 years, so they are competing for the same resources. They are competing economically for foreign investment, especially in telecom and high-tech sectors.

China has long-term expansionist goals that do not sit well with her neighbors.

e.g, the usual reasons...

This might give you a little insight on the Indian view:

http://ignca.nic.in/ks_41065.htm

[P.A.F]

i would say that they both want to be THE UNIQUE superpower of asia.

[kashifshahzad]

i would say that they both want to be THE UNIQUE superpower of asia.
Dont you think that China is a Unique Superpower in Asia wrt the militery and economy i also want to mention that PAK geographical location is soo good that India would need to get gas from the pipe line passing through PAK so this will help PAK in the economy and people will get rayality PAK will be also getting the gas.Let this happen then India will avoid the threaten PAK and wil never attack PAK so peace betwen these two countries i think PAK want to get one leg of india in control then we can sit and talk for the solution of problems

[doggychow14]

It thinks of supperessing India with overwhelming military and economic muscle .




Thus keeping its forces near india minumul and loosely and signing new economic deals and investing in india. That makes great sense. Based on the past 2 years, it seems that both China and India are keen in developing closer strategic and economic relations. In the past china's record of imperialism has been, shall we say minute, compared to that of the west. China's military buildup is directed at Taiwan and the US.
It thinks of supperessing India with overwhelming military and economic muscle .
yes it still can house air bases. I'm sure the j-6s can be replaced with j-10s or flankers. All the su-300, hq-9, and other sam batteries are not located near the indo china border.

[Red aRRow]

Thread is about discussing the military buildup of Chinese armed forces NOT the political implications and NOT about India. All irrelevant posts will be nuked by yours truly.

[Snayke]

I don't see why it is such a worry now. Everyone knows China have been building up military forces across from Taiwan, and have been doing training exercises on the Taiwan Strait for years and years. Why is it, suddeny NOW, that everyone gets so worried? If they wanted to attack, they would've attacked earlier. Can't really say much without adding in politics as to why China would not attack. :P

But if China does decide to invade Taiwan in some alternate universe, I think they would have a tough battle on their hands. Firstly, they would need to clear landing zones for their troops in come in via air or sea. Doing that would be difficult as China would need air surperiority quickly. Although China's air force inventory outnumbers that of Taiwan's, Taiwan can still pack a punch with it's current air force. I think China would have quite a few losses in the air battle.

As for ground forces, I don't know much about either side's infantry. Do Taiwanese infantry follow US training or an offshoot of it? Their army equipment is pretty outdated I think. Their MBTs are like, M60s or something? Anyways, it would still be a problem for China to land ground forces in by sea if pestered by Taiwanese aircraft.

Air dropping them in? I don't know anything about China's capability of airbourne units. All speculation on my part. :D

[Francois]

I don't see why it is such a worry now...
... I don't know anything about China's capability of airbourne units. All speculation on my part. :D

You should understand that China's goal, through Taiwan, is really larger.
And I mean REALLY larger.
They want to protect the SLOCs for their ever growing needs of crude and raw materials.
But they have a bigger view on the East Asian region, and Taiwan is only the first step.
To secure their needs, they have to control the whole region, from Persian Gulf to Far East Asia. We are talking of inner and out islands rings.
They need to get out of the enclavement they are right now.
So, they have to get first Taiwan, then they will have free hands to go in the Paracel (and the whole South China Sea), and go more east (Okinawa and Japan are the outposts of the second ring), and west (farther then Malacca/Aceh).

This is not discutable.
It appears clearly in chinese views and almost on filigrams in their public discourses.

[Snayke]

So China is out to invade Asia? First I've heard of that.

[Francois]

So China is out to invade Asia? First I've heard of that.
Unfortunatly, that is the kind of information that is getting out of virtually all strategic studies conf I have been on (IISS, CSIS, Stratnet, and so on) and minutes of meetings.

Chamberlain refused all evidences also, remenber...

[mysterious]

Looks like all the China-phobia striken people got together and decided to spew out some anti-China rhetoric and threat perceptions that are totally uncalled for. If China is out to invade Asia, then in the same limelight, the US has already done so!

[Francois]

Looks like all the China-phobia striken people got together and decided to spew out some anti-China rhetoric and threat perceptions that are totally uncalled for. If China is out to invade Asia, then in the same limelight, the US has already done so!
Well, if you think you are smarter then scholars that are spending time studying the world strategic issues, it is up to you.
One can call china anything but pacifist. Tomorrow will speak by itself.

[SABRE]

My friend China is a million year old country. Its the civilization of ages. They have had history of military build up & they stick to their million year old treditions. Yes they have history of invasion & occupying but they are limited. They are limited to regions where there are people of Chinese origion. Tiwan is Chinese, India's North is of Chinese origion (I think Aranchal Pardesh or some other state has Chinese origion of people), the part of Kashmir China occupies is of Chinese majority.

They only occupy & rule places where they find their people. Yes their military has ventured out side China but had only gone their fpr loot & plunder. Even if they ruled they dint stay long enough to call it Chinese.

Considering the history I dont think China is building up army to conquer Asia but Tiwan alone. They have let go of Chinese-Indian region to concentrate on Tiwan.

About making the influence spread over Asia, well no one can stop that. Pakistani gates are open to them from the north leads them out to the middle east in the south west. Their influence is in the east asia. But its kinda game of chess, it has to get the US's queen to be the king it self of the region & with fall of US in Tiwan they get the queen.

[kashifshahzad]

About making the influence spread over Asia, well no one can stop that. Pakistani gates are open to them from the north leads them out to the middle east in the south west. Their influence is in the east asia. But its kinda game of chess, it has to get the US's queen to be the king it self of the region & with fall of US in Tiwan they get the queen.

Why taiwan is so important for China it is just a little Island :confused:also china has a lot of missiles pointed towards taiwan

[Francois]

Why taiwan is so important for China it is just a little Island :confused:also china has a lot of missiles pointed towards taiwan
It is rather a strategic issue.
Mainland China is enclaved in the South China Sea. No access outside without going by other countries' EEz or even waters.
It is well known that the day China get its hands on Taiwan, they will base their subs there.
Another reason is to get hold of the Taiwanese economy, which is rather large.

To Sabre :
You get the point actually. Just one mistake, one million years ago, China was not habited by humans... homo sapiens appeared later.
China is too much living in its past. They claim what belong to them once in the long past. What would you think if France claimed east Europa, Russia and Egypt because Napoleon did invade them? You want more exemples?

These are just excuses actually.
This being said, they are using the weakness of some nations to get in too.
Pakistan will not have the best from Europa or USA because they are an islamist nation, China is the best friend...
Turkey sees the doors of Europa closing to its face, and China is offering something.
Same with Myanmar, etc etc...

[Hussain]

China has not intention of invading Western Europe, Africa or the america's . As economies grow in the modern world as does there need for resources and military development. Asfar as influennce goes , lots of countries will move towards China as it provides incentives with no strings attached. The US realises China's growing influence in Asia and therfore is tryoing to hold some sway with Pakistan with military aid and F16's, cobra attack helicopters etc.

Problem is casn the US sustain its operations in Afghanistan and not leave Pakistan on its own again as stated. As the US clearly points out Pakistan and US alliance is a matter of conveniance. Chaina and Pakistan have too much going together at the moment particualrly in the defence field. I also think both sides have sacrifised a lotfor each other. China has also managed to reach out to the Islamic world more than the US. The policy of China towards the Muslim people in its country has been one of reapproachment and increased religious tolerence. China may wish to increase its influence via Xianjing. The question remains however how much more is Chana willing to increase its influence in Muslim Central Asia without being seen as hegemonic power. If China is able to secure Central Asia in the next twenty years with or without Russia's help then the Chinese will be the real super power of the world. This will depend also depend opening up and developing Xianjing possibly with the help of Pakistan to create a free trade zone.

[mysterious]

Well, if you think you are smarter then scholars that are spending time studying the world strategic issues, it is up to you. One can call china anything but pacifist. Tomorrow will speak by itself.

I dont think I mentioned anything that even hinted at China being pacifist but at the same time, so far there has been no aggression in a hegemonial sense. All these 'scholars' are mostly sitting in the US of A while exaggerating exponentially a Chinese 'threat'. They know the US cannot go on forever to be the sole show-stopper on the world stage so they're trying to warn ahead of time that a new player is emerging, which is of course true. How long do you really think you can keep China down with puny arms-embargoes and other measures? It will find a way around. World powers come in to being and then they expire; US is heading in that direction slowly but surely.

[SABRE]

It is rather a strategic issue.
Mainland China is enclaved in the South China Sea. No access outside without going by other countries' EEz or even waters.
It is well known that the day China get its hands on Taiwan, they will base their subs there.
Another reason is to get hold of the Taiwanese economy, which is rather large.

Tiwan can also play as naval front against Japan.

To Sabre :
You get the point actually. Just one mistake, one million years ago, China was not habited by humans... homo sapiens appeared later.

Well yeah one million was mistake :p: but I dont believe in the monkey business. Humens were still there.

China is too much living in its past. They claim what belong to them once in the long past. What would you think if France claimed east Europa, Russia and Egypt because Napoleon did invade them? You want more exemples?

Well Tiwan dint belong to them long in the past. It was lost after communist took over infact it still remains China's part. Its not an excepted country, dont have their own flags etc. Its just that main land doesnt have the control.

If east Europe is of French origion (inhabitated by French in majority) than sure why not but if East Europe is of different origion than they cant. Its like Nazi Germany. Poland & Austria belong to us cause they originated from us. ???? Nazi German policies Still remain big question mark for me.

These are just excuses actually.
This being said, they are using the weakness of some nations to get in too.
Pakistan will not have the best from Europa or USA because they are an islamist nation, China is the best friend...
Turkey sees the doors of Europa closing to its face, and China is offering something.
Same with Myanmar, etc etc...

Actualy (if I got ur point) I think your right. China is opening doors to nations ignored by the super powers of Europe & USA. They are trying to gain more allies in form of small nations (some big countries aswell) spread its influence on them & emerge as their hero. You can say that China is a leader of a labour union while the Europe & USA are capitalism & Industry.

Well I like this policy. Attend the ignored.

[Vigilante]

Reuters
Jul 20, 2005, 05:42


WASHINGTON (Reuters): China not only is massing forces facing Taiwan, but developing new long-range missiles and acquiring an arsenal of sophisticated jets and warships in an ambitious arms build-up, the United States said on Tuesday.

Over the "next several years", Beijing will deploy a DF-31 road-mobile, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, the Pentagon said in an annual report to Congress on Chinese military power.

The current military focus by the People's Liberation Army stresses protecting Chinese borders and waters and intimidating Taiwan, according to the 44-page report, which lists a broad range of new armaments from fighter jets to submarines.

Here is a breakdown of some of weapons listed and a look at efforts by Beijing's huge PLA ground forces to slim down and mobilize:

Ballistic missiles:

About 650-730 mobile CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range missiles in coastal garrisons opposite Taiwan. Deployment is increasing by about 100 missiles a year, including improved range and accuracy in newer versions.

The military is also modernizing its longer-range missile fleet with newer, more survivable versions including the mobile DF-31 and JL-2.

Air Power:

More than 700 aircraft within un-refueled operational range of Taiwan. Many are outdated, but Beijing continues acquiring sleek fighters from Russia, including the Su-30MKK multi-role and Su-Mk2 maritime strike aircraft.

New jet acquisitions are augmenting previous deliveries of Su-27 fighters and China is building its own version of the Su-27SK, the F-11, under agreement with Moscow.

Improvements to older FB-7 fighters will give them nighttime maritime strike capability and China has programs underway to deploy new protective electronic jammers on bombers, transports, tactical aircraft and unmanned spy planes.

The PLA is also acquiring from abroad, or developing at home, advanced precision strike weapons such as cruise missiles and air-to-air, air-to-surface and radar-destroying munitions.

Naval Power:

Includes 64 major surface warships, 55 attack submarines, 40 medium and heavy amphibious lift vessels and about 50 coastal missile patrol craft. Two-thirds of the fleet is located in the East and South Sea fleets.

China has deployed two new Russian-made Sovremennyy class guided-missile destroyers in the East Sea Fleet and an additional two are under contract. All are fitted with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles and air defense systems.

China's Song class diesel electric submarine has entered serial production. Last year, China launched a new diesel submarine, the Yuan class, and it is expected to field its next-generation nuclear attack submarine, the Type 093. this year.

Beijing is also acquiring eight additional Kilo class diesel electric submarines from Russia in addition to four previously-purchased boats. The new subs will include advanced SS-N-27 anti-ship cruise missiles and and wire-guided and wake-seeking torpedoes.

Ground Forces:

China has 375,000 troops deployed to three military regions opposite Taiwan and has been upgrading those units with amphibious armor and military vehicles, including tanks.

The PLA is expected to complete another round of downsizing -- slashing 200,000 troops by the end of this year -- to bring the size of the PLA to about 2.3 million, according to official statistics. But the pentagon said paramilitary, police and reserves boost that figure to 3.2 million.

China's 2004 Defense White Paper noted that China can also draw upon more than 10 million organized militia members.

The Army acquired additional M1-17/171 medium-lift helicopters from Russia last year and is developing its own attack helicopter, the Z-10, which could enter service in 2014.



URL of this article:
http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/article_002698.php

Why US is afraid of China US must build friendly relations with the developing ecnomic and militery power which is present in Asia this will be benificial for both the regions the North America and the Asia if some thing happens then the results can be so dangrous caz the russia and China on one side and US on the other this will be a crual game not like the US Vs Iraq or Afghanistan.

Realisticly... is the Chinese administration so out of touch to build a solid economic relationship with the west and then switch toward the expensive cold war politics overnight ? We the American taxpayers need to be aware of the "cry wolf" politic implemented and supported by the greed of the weapons cartel here in USA to rip off and destroy the american way of living by using badly needed resources in unnecesary new weapon programs that so far have show a record of fraud and ethics violation....

[doggychow14]

Realisticly... is the Chinese administration so out of touch to build a solid economic relationship with the west and then switch toward the expensive cold war politics overnight ? We the American taxpayers need to be aware of the "cry wolf" politic implemented and supported by the greed of the weapons cartel here in USA to rip off and destroy the american way of living by using badly needed resources in unnecesary new weapon programs that so far have show a record of fraud and ethics violation.... If you compare the US military and the Chinese military, you will see no comparison. The US spends half the world's military budget. The US spends a higher percent of their GDP with China. Are America's new weapon programs "necessary" when they are already so far ahead. The US uses up the most natural resources in the world. The US has supported ruthless dictators in Latin America and the Middle East because they were pro-western during the col war. Now is that ethical? Every country has their own agenda and pursues their own interest whether it be a communist country(if you can even call china a communist country) or a democratic country. All of the items stated in that artical has been available to the US for more than a decade now. Whats unethical is starting a "preemtive war" over loose intelligance. It is better that 10 guilty men go free rather than 1 innocent man die.

[Francois]

Asfar as influennce goes , lots of countries will move towards China as it provides incentives with no strings attached.
And what guarantie you have of this statement?
You think they are just nice and cool? So you are a bit too naive my friend.
If you know final purposes of China, you would not post here.

China is using muslims like the US did during CW to fight the SU.
No friends in international relations.

[Raven_Wing278]

Why taiwan is so important for China it is just a little Island :confused:also china has a lot of missiles pointed towards taiwan

its not a matter of why taiwan is so important to china..if taiwan is allowed to declare independence then other chinese held territory like tibet and macau may also declare independence thus creating a dominoe effect:rolleyes:

[Francois]

its not a matter of why taiwan is so important to china..if taiwan is allowed to declare independence then other chinese held territory like tibet and macau may also declare independence thus creating a dominoe effect:rolleyes:
And Taiwan is the first step to acces freely to the Pac Ocean, and closing the South China Sea on the East part (Japan and Corea's SLOCs).

[driftder]

With the current arms buildup causing so much tension, even among the forum members here, one question I would like to ask is - what will cause the first shot to be fired? As another member, Turin had mentioned in the World War 3 thread, an obvious declaration of independence by Taiwan would be the trigger. Any others?

Assuming that such a scenario took place ie Taiwan goes independent, what will China do? Launch all the "650-730 mobile CSS-6 and CSS-7" ballistic missiles and also the DF-31 at Taiwan, leaving it a moon-cratered landscape or launch a blockade followed by a air bombardment by its 700+ warplanes? Then what? Move its navy and army across the Taiwan Straits and re-occupy Taiwan? Whats the likelihood that such a scenario will succeed?

How about the Taiwan response and defences? Will it just let China lob missiles at it or do something about it? BTW, what is the effect of 650-700 ballistic missiles landing on an island like Taiwan? Will China be allowed to get away with such a massive bombardment and not get censured, boycotted and condemned?

One other question - what is the level of expertise that China had with fighting a war in a high intensive modern war ala the Gulf War 1/2? How well trained are they in such a high tech war?

Mind-boggling eh?:smokingc:

[driftder]

Why taiwan is so important for China it is just a little Island :confused:also china has a lot of missiles pointed towards taiwan

For that answer, you will need to review the Chinese Civil War, 1945-1949. The end result was the Communists won and the Kuomintang or Nationalist forces retreated to Fujian and finally Taiwan. If I recollect my history, the Nationalists and Communists are de-facto in a state of war ie no signing of any peace accord, treatys etc. So to effect total overall control over the entire nation, the Communist must take out Taiwan and eliminate the last Nationalist stronghold.

Only problem is, now Taiwan is ruled by the DPP, not the Nationalist so the Communists don't have much grounds for attacking.

It's not the why - it's the matter of prestige. As long as Taiwan is not part of China, the Communist will feel that their authority is being defied. No authoritarian regime will tolerate that. Matter of fact, no government would. So Taiwan must be recovered one way or another. It's just a matter of time and how long Taiwan can delay the inevitable.

What one should question is what happens after if Taiwan surrenders or is recovered by China? Will China be so emboldened to press its claims against other territories that used to be held or owned by them?

Another question - will Taiwan just surrender or let itself be conquered? For that we will need to look at Taiwan's defenses ;) - which don't just include guns and missiles.

[turin]

Launch all the "650-730 mobile CSS-6 and CSS-7" ballistic missiles and also the DF-31 at Taiwan, leaving it a moon-cratered landscape

Why would they do that? Taiwan isnt some enemy or threat that needs to be eliminated. China wants to reclaim it, not destroy it. So the use of BM in that manner would most likely be only the last point in a scenario of maximum escalation, maybe if Taiwan would reveal itself to introduce the use of nuclear weapons or something like that.

launch a blockade followed by a air bombardment by its 700+ warplanes? Then what? Move its navy and army across the Taiwan Straits and re-occupy Taiwan? Whats the likelihood that such a scenario will succeed?

I guess thats pretty much the scenario, however in a more combined way. So they wouldnt simply send 700+ planes to bombard Taiwan (precision attacks desirable) but first try to gain Air superiority over the Taiwan Strait, eliminate the taiwanese air force, then its naval assets etc. gf0012-aust compiled a nice list of things to do in the "Sink-the-carrier"-thread.
The likelihood of success would very much depend on quantitative advantages of the PLA in every sense, especially with AC, stand-off-capabilities etc. Also the kind of amphibious forces and their protection would be a signifciant factor. Right now Chinas transport fleet consists of largely dated and ineffective designs. It may need LPH and LPD forces to improve the survivability of that fleet.

Another question - will Taiwan just surrender or let itself be conquered? For that we will need to look at Taiwan's defenses

Well, I'd say the question is more something like: will there be a peaceful integration at all or will China use military force. If the latter is the case than an immediate surrender of Taiwan is more or less unlikely since such a scenario would also require Taiwan to have taken some part in introducing a military action of the PRC in the first place. So I am sure they would fight, regardless of the shape of their defenses.

[gf0012-aust]

The other thing to consider is the Chinese ORBAT. In its current guise it does not have any form of expeditionary capability or any amphibious group of note (certainly not enough to "sieze and hold"). Opposed landings have been out of favour since D Day, and unopposed landings like Inchon are few and far between. (great for news reporters like in Grenada, but absolutely unnecessary under current doctrine and force options)

Fundamentally, that means that any attempt to land sufficient force for "sieze and hold" has to be airborne. As far as IADS goes, Taiwan definitely has superiority and an edge within notional combat ranges. I can't really see the PLAN or PLAAF being in any shape to conduct an airborne expedition, and I certainly can't see them getting an opposed landing in place as any movement of troops and logistics required to support such a scale of attack would be triggering alarm bells in all 3 dimensions.

China is a long way away from being able to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan.

[Hussain]

And what guarantie you have of this statement?
You think they are just nice and cool? So you are a bit too naive my friend.
If you know final purposes of China, you would not post here.

China is using muslims like the US did during CW to fight the SU.
No friends in international relations.

That's the nature of world politics.

[kashifshahzad]

Chinese spy plane seen near Japan: report
AFP
Tue, 13 Sep 2005, 10:28

TOKYO: A Chinese military spy plane was spotted twice last month off southern Japan amid high tensions between the two nations, a news report said Tuesday.
Kyodo News, citing unnamed sources in a dispatch from Washington, said the plane flying in Japanese airspace could likely catch radio waves and electronic data from Japanese warships or military facilities.

China has never confirmed the existence of such a plane but the US Defense Department believes Beijing is focusing on "electronic warfare" as it expands its military spending, the report said.

It said the plane was spotted off twice in August over the East China Sea south of mainland Japan's southern island of Kyushu.

Japan's Defense Agency is aware of the report but had no immediate comment, a spokesman said.

The report came shortly after Japan said for the first time that it spotted Chinese warships near a disputed gas field in the East China Sea.

The five ships, including a destroyer, were seen Friday just on China's side of what Japan considers the dividing line in the sea. China does not recognize the line.

The ship incident came two days before a general election that saw a landslide victory for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has presided over deteriorating relations with China since coming to office in 2001.

Koizumi's government in July gave permission for the first time to a company to explore the gas fields, angering China, which began drilling unilaterally in 2003.

Koizumi has also infuriated Beijing by visiting a shrine that honors Japanese war dead including convicted World War II war criminals.

Both Japan and the United States have recently expressed concern about China's growing military spending.



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This can increase tension in the area China must avoid these kind of activities.

[driftder]

Why would they do that? Taiwan isnt some enemy or threat that needs to be eliminated. China wants to reclaim it, not destroy it. So the use of BM in that manner would most likely be only the last point in a scenario of maximum escalation, maybe if Taiwan would reveal itself to introduce the use of nuclear weapons or something like that.



I guess thats pretty much the scenario, however in a more combined way. So they wouldnt simply send 700+ planes to bombard Taiwan (precision attacks desirable) but first try to gain Air superiority over the Taiwan Strait, eliminate the taiwanese air force, then its naval assets etc. gf0012-aust compiled a nice list of things to do in the "Sink-the-carrier"-thread.
The likelihood of success would very much depend on quantitative advantages of the PLA in every sense, especially with AC, stand-off-capabilities etc. Also the kind of amphibious forces and their protection would be a signifciant factor. Right now Chinas transport fleet consists of largely dated and ineffective designs. It may need LPH and LPD forces to improve the survivability of that fleet.



Well, I'd say the question is more something like: will there be a peaceful integration at all or will China use military force. If the latter is the case than an immediate surrender of Taiwan is more or less unlikely since such a scenario would also require Taiwan to have taken some part in introducing a military action of the PRC in the first place. So I am sure they would fight, regardless of the shape of their defenses.

Realistically I concur with all points of your reply. But just for the heck of it :D, lets say US manage to deploy a credible missile defence network covering say Japan, S. Korea and of course...Taiwan. Now that nullifies China's ballistic missile (BM) advantage. Now with such a big thorn removed from their side, and Taiwan unable to resist thumbing their collective noses at China, would it kinda offside to say China might just go ballistic (pun intended) and launch?

I agree with your observation about China's current air and amphibious capability. It can't match with Taiwan's defences. Matter of fact, during their Civil War, the communists tried a few amphibious attacks but all got sunk. As for the air para-landing option, again not likely - unless China got a unknown stealth capability(?).

BTW which thinktank did you say you are with? Don't bother to reply in public. If you ever come by Singapore way, do drop by the IDSS :). I think they had a paper(s) from your side on flashpoints in Asia.

[driftder]

The other thing to consider is the Chinese ORBAT. In its current guise it does not have any form of expeditionary capability or any amphibious group of note (certainly not enough to "sieze and hold"). Opposed landings have been out of favour since D Day, and unopposed landings like Inchon are few and far between. (great for news reporters like in Grenada, but absolutely unnecessary under current doctrine and force options)

Fundamentally, that means that any attempt to land sufficient force for "sieze and hold" has to be airborne. As far as IADS goes, Taiwan definitely has superiority and an edge within notional combat ranges. I can't really see the PLAN or PLAAF being in any shape to conduct an airborne expedition, and I certainly can't see them getting an opposed landing in place as any movement of troops and logistics required to support such a scale of attack would be triggering alarm bells in all 3 dimensions.

China is a long way away from being able to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan.

And a gday to you too, mate :p:. Concur with your assessment but they are gearing up for it. You didn't say much about the time honoured favorite of theirs - the fifth column or headhunter squads. If they manage to create enough chaos, and it happens to coincide with a combined amphibious/airborne landing....interesting eh? That is without raising the bells :D.

[turin]

Realistically I concur with all points of your reply. But just for the heck of it :D, lets say US manage to deploy a credible missile defence network covering say Japan, S. Korea and of course...Taiwan. Now that nullifies China's ballistic missile (BM) advantage. Now with such a big thorn removed from their side, and Taiwan unable to resist thumbing their collective noses at China, would it kinda offside to say China might just go ballistic (pun intended) and launch?

Well, thats a pretty big "if", isnt it? ;)
However, even in such a scenario there remains the question as to how far such a missile defense network would go. AFAIK the US already offered Taiwan PAC3-missiles capable of BMD. That would already be a quite good defense against SRBM. Yet any inclusion of Taiwan in a "real" network would basically mean not only transfer of weapons, but a real alliance. In such a case there is the open question on the nature of this alliance, i.e. does the US offer Taiwan general assistance in defence against BM-attacks or only under certain circumstances etc. Of course a direct and full alliance would mean certain direct engagement of US forces in case of military hostilities whatsoever between Taiwan and the PRC. Also such an alliance would basically mean military assistance in general, since I really cant imagine the US saying: "Yes, we will help you, should they attack with BM, but will stand by and enjoy the show, should they not."
I really cant say, what will happen then, but certainly the invasion of Taiwan would be out of the picture, as long as the US remain a local thread to PLA forces.

As for the air para-landing option, again not likely - unless China got a unknown stealth capability(?).

The airborne operations certainly are an unknown factor. Right now the chinese capabilities are limited. With the oncoming purchase of further Il-76 the situation improves at least in terms of quantitative capabilities. Still any airborne operation would require air dominance on behalf of the PLAAF and elimination of the bulk of taiwanese SAM-assets.


BTW which thinktank did you say you are with? Don't bother to reply in public. If you ever come by Singapore way, do drop by the IDSS :). I think they had a paper(s) from your side on flashpoints in Asia.

Unfortunately I am still an ordinary student sitting on his master thesis right now. So still some way to the think tank business, should I decide to take this way (although that is on my list). ;)

[driftder]

Unfortunately I am still an ordinary student sitting on his master thesis right now. So still some way to the think tank business, should I decide to take this way (although that is on my list). ;)

Just a ordinary student? You could have fooled me - rather insightful analysis though.

Well, thats a pretty big "if", isnt it? ;)
However, even in such a scenario there remains the question as to how far such a missile defense network would go. AFAIK the US already offered Taiwan PAC3-missiles capable of BMD. That would already be a quite good defense against SRBM. Yet any inclusion of Taiwan in a "real" network would basically mean not only transfer of weapons, but a real alliance. In such a case there is the open question on the nature of this alliance, i.e. does the US offer Taiwan general assistance in defence against BM-attacks or only under certain circumstances etc. Of course a direct and full alliance would mean certain direct engagement of US forces in case of military hostilities whatsoever between Taiwan and the PRC. Also such an alliance would basically mean military assistance in general, since I really cant imagine the US saying: "Yes, we will help you, should they attack with BM, but will stand by and enjoy the show, should they not."
I really cant say, what will happen then, but certainly the invasion of Taiwan would be out of the picture, as long as the US remain a local thread to PLA forces.

Well lets say the US decide to plant a base there :D. Just to keep the pot brewing, lets say the US decide Taiwan makes a good LP on China. And the missile umbrella was extended to enclose China. Now that will really spoil China's day cos as you say, any attack will mean a big inconvenience. So would you agree a big part of China's strategy would be to tie up the US so that they can't come to Taiwan's aid in time?

If I were to watch China, I would say any substantial increase in amphib capability and asset would set alarm bells off.