IAF in 2015

[santpaul]

This is my guess

150-Su30mki
200-Tejas
200-Mirage2000-5
100-Mig29 SMT
25-MCA
50-Pak-FA

what do you guys think???
I did not include the traniers and transport aircraft because I know very little about them but You welcome to include them especially the Desi AJT

[omegasigma]

What about the LCA?

[highsea]

What about the LCA?
200 not enough for you?

[aaaditya]

tejas(brilliance) is the name of the lca.

[corsair7772]

I think 200 is a bit much for 2015. After all the JF-17 already in production suppose to be 110 in number by 2015. So if the LCA enters production in 2007 it should be say 90~120?

[Pathfinder-X]

I seriously doubt India will induct 200 Tejas in the future. If you pay close attention to it you'll find out the plane was suppose to be ready for service in 1994, now 10 years later they're still being haunted by series of problems. I think India is more interesting in obtaining the PAK-FA than putting any sort of large investment into the LCA project.

[XEROX]

It’s highly improbable to have 200 LCA, the 150 MKI sounds right, as does the PAK-FA!!

[aaaditya]

already orders have been placed for about 40 lca's.

[audenm]

I to doubt the 200 tejas.
Hey what about the gripen jets , i guess there r moves to aquire those too by the IAF. :?

[XEROX]

25 MCA also seems to be right number of AC for 2015!!

[P.A.F]

my version of IAF in 2015

Su-30 150
LCA 50
Mirage 2000-5 125
Mirage 2000-H 50
Mig-29 100
a few left over MiG 21, 25, others and jaguars

i can't see any MCA's coming in at that time as production of the LCA would have been quiet recent ;)

[omegasigma]

I agree with PAF, I do not see any MCA or the PAK-FA inducted into the IAF by 2015.

An LCA takes 7 months to build at HAL. HAL has currently one assembly line. HAL is planning 16 assembly lines by 2007. If they start full-scale production by 2007, I do not see them reaching the 200 number.

[rajupaki]

India dont need to worry about their future they have a bright future if one see's it from current situation.

[santpaul]

PAK-FA could be avaliable to IAF if the production is done in Russia and MCA could also be avaliable in limited numbers to IAF if the production goes smooth in HAL factories

sorry I forgot to include LCA my guess is that IAF would have about 100 LCA's because they very hard to upgrade Unlike Mig-21s were

[omegasigma]

sorry I forgot to include LCA my guess is that IAF would have about 100 LCA's because they very hard to upgrade Unlike Mig-21s were

The LCA's when inducted will be the easiest to upgrade. They are built on Open Systems Architecture with the Standard MIL bus interconnects. All the units are LRU's (Line Replaceable Units.)

[adsH]

LCA is a smaller platform too so thats probably why it would be harder to upgrade it, But if you look at tech trends tech gets smaller and smaller day by day. But i still think Military Aviation tech relies on proven tech and size is a static issue.

[omegasigma]

The LRUs carry all the instrumentation technologies, sensor networks, computers, backup systems, gauges, etc. These can be easily replaced, since they are LRUs. The cockpit and instrumentation is designed to be very modular and thus are highly upgradable. The radar is integrated using open systems and can be easily upgraded. The only issue is that the LCA is small and will carry less fuel and have less hardpoints, and this cannot be upgraded.

[armage]

How small is the LCA?
Compared to the Mirage 2000 and MiG-21...

[omegasigma]

How small is the LCA?
Compared to the Mirage 2000 and MiG-21...

I do not know the ratio, but the LCA is the smallest and the lightest fighter aircraft in the world. 40% of the construction is all composite, saving 2000 rivet points.

[srirangan]

I don't think any of us is capable of predicting the exact composition. But look at it this way, India is bound to have lots of money, and defence spending, even if it doesn't increase in percentage, will increase in pure numbers and the rate of this increase will be higher than the inflationary forces.

Bottom line, India would have all the money to have a a type of air force she desires. Rest upto the military doctrine of this country.

[highsea]

How small is the LCA?
Compared to the Mirage 2000 and MiG-21...
Armage, you can make a general comparison here (but don't trust everything you see, there are some errors on this site):

http://www.airtoaircombat.com/compare.asp

[XEROX]

Any of you guys know the status of the PAK-FA and the T50

[adsH]

Pak-FA, has been canceled it was developed as a tech Demonstrator,IAF doesn't need to revive the program since Russia is offering newer better Fighter programs. LCA is still too young and INdia scapability interms of Developing High-tech Avionics is still intermediate.So i would think LCA's next upgrade which should be after its induction after 2015 should really make the Fighter Effective-in Ariel defense.

[Panzer]

Pak-FA, has been canceled it was developed as a tech Demonstrator,IAF doesn't need to revive the program since Russia is offering newer better Fighter programs. LCA is still too young and INdia scapability interms of Developing High-tech Avionics is still intermediate.So i would think LCA's next upgrade which should be after its induction after 2015 should really make the Fighter Effective-in Ariel defense.

Tech demonstrator???
PAK-FA canceled??? :eek
I thought T-50 is PAK-FA. Please correct me if i am wrong.

[Jacob]

Pak-FA, has been canceled it was developed as a tech Demonstrator,IAF doesn't need to revive the program since Russia is offering newer better Fighter programs. LCA is still too young and INdia scapability interms of Developing High-tech Avionics is still intermediate.So i would think LCA's next upgrade which should be after its induction after 2015 should really make the Fighter Effective-in Ariel defense.

It was the S-37 Berkut project which was cancelled.many of its techs would go into the Pak-Fa,which will fly by 2010.

[srirangan]

Yep adsH, you prolly mixed up the two. Or maybe you got a more up to date link?

[SABRE]

Pak-FA, has been canceled it was developed as a tech Demonstrator,IAF doesn't need to revive the program since Russia is offering newer better Fighter programs. LCA is still too young and INdia scapability interms of Developing High-tech Avionics is still intermediate.So i would think LCA's next upgrade which should be after its induction after 2015 should really make the Fighter Effective-in Ariel defense.

S-40 (Su-37) Birkut was the technology demonstrator competed to US's some swept forward "X" series tech demonstrator by Northorp Grummen. Both failed & got cancelled but did give way to new tecnology.
Pak-FA is based on Birkut, similar but wings r swept backwards. Pak-FA cant fail right now as it has not even conducted a test yet.

[TheMind]

Pak-FA cant fail right now as it has not even conducted a test yet.

Exactly. What I believe (as the online sources indicate) is it would fly by 2009-2010 and would be available for export by 2012. Let's see if India tries to buy it or not.

[redsoulja]

Exactly. What I believe (as the online sources indicate) is it would fly by 2009-2010 and would be available for export by 2012. Let's see if India tries to buy it or not.
Aren't the indians making it in collaboration with the russians adn thus they obviously will induct them into the IAF??

[SABRE]

As far as I know, yes the Indians have share in it & r making it togather with Russian although the major work is being done by Russians. Hence it will definitly be inducted in to the IAF, "IF" it passes all the tests like engine test etc.
So far two of the best Russian ACs have gone back to closet, for ever, m talking about Su-40 (S-37) Birkut & MiG-1.42. Realy waiting for PAK-FA, its funny that its based completely on Birkut will Birkut is a failure project.
Anyways Birkut was a tech demon, it did its job to give way to PAK-FA.

[ajay_ijn]

By 2015 i suppose India will be getting the first Pak-FA or signing the deal if everything went as planned i.e first prototype by 2010 and operational by 2013 or 2014.

If Pak-FA is delayed India will be buying some other fighter by 2015 may be EF-2000 or someother.

by 2015

190 Su-30MKI
70 Mig-29 (Upgraded to SMT)
175 Mirage-2005
200 Mig-27 and jaguar
70 LCA

Still falls short of some 100 aircraft if she retires all Mig-21 bison.
Looks like IAF will surely have less squardons by 2015.

So we can predict that IAF will buy some 50 new aircraft by 2015 to fill the gap.It will mostly sign in 2011 or 2012.

What about helicopters?

By 2015
50 Mi-26 and Mi-17
100 ALH
50 LCH
50 Ka-50 and Mi-35
50 new assault helicopters to replace Mi-17.

[P.A.F]

i totally agree with your list ajay_in. the IAF may be short of jets but the quality factor is definately there.

[arjun]

i hope india will have it's own state of art military hardwear in all defence fields 2015 as much as they can make and do not depend on any other country. well it is just hope not fact. but the world is living in hope . hope never dies

[Shazzz]

i think 120~150 Su-30 mki, not more then 120 LCAs,200 Mig-29s.No MCA till 2020.

[Shazzz]

By 2015 i suppose India will be getting the first Pak-FA or signing the deal if everything went as planned i.e first prototype by 2010 and operational by 2013 or 2014.

If Pak-FA is delayed India will be buying some other fighter by 2015 may be EF-2000 or someother.

by 2015

190 Su-30MKI
70 Mig-29 (Upgraded to SMT)
175 Mirage-2005
200 Mig-27 and jaguar
70 LCA

Still falls short of some 100 aircraft if she retires all Mig-21 bison.
Looks like IAF will surely have less squardons by 2015.

So we can predict that IAF will buy some 50 new aircraft by 2015 to fill the gap.It will mostly sign in 2011 or 2012.

What about helicopters?

By 2015
50 Mi-26 and Mi-17
100 ALH
50 LCH
50 Ka-50 and Mi-35
50 new assault helicopters to replace Mi-17.

190 Su-30mki is very large no
They will retire all Mig-27s and Jagaurs.
round about 100~120 LCAs

[ajay_ijn]

190 Su-30mki is very large no
Please do read info about Su-30MKI before making such statements.
190 Su-30's is not a assumption or prediction by 2015.
http://vayu-sena.tripod.com/info-su30mki.html

End Result : IAF will eventually acquire a total of 190 Su-30MKI. Out of these 50 will be made in Russia by Irkutsk Aircraft Production Association (IAPO) while the rest will be produced in India by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Production might be increased if necessary. HAL chairman Nalini Ranjan Mohanty has said that the Indian-built Su-30s will cost only about $22.5 million a unit against the current import price of about $37.5 million [Financial Express, 10-Dec-2001].

not more then 120 LCAs,200 Mig-29s.
Number of LCA is a prediction.
I think less than 100 LCA's would be produced.
200 Mig-29???
No I think it would be only 70 Mig-29 and 175 Mirage-2005.
No MCA till 2020.
I think Prototype would be out by 2013 and production would begin by 2015-2017 and IAF might buy them by 2018.
And First Squardon must be active by 2020.

[Akshay]

by 2015


200 Mirage-2000\5
200 Su-Mki
60 Pak-fa
125 LCA
30 MCA
66 Hawks
125 Mig-21-93
70 Mig-29
150\+ Jaguars,Mig-27

[XEROX]

Maybe a squadron of Tu-22M3 bombers??

[adsH]

According to AFM the Deliveries of the 140 SU30mki would end near around 2017-18 this is from the experts who know the Air Forces they talk about you’ve got to read up this Month’s AFM there are detailed sections about the IAF procurements. IAF just finished up with there first Indigenously Assembled (Russian kit) Flanker.

[ajay_ijn]

According to AFM the Deliveries of the 140 SU30mki would end near around 2017-18 this is from the experts who know the Air Forces they talk about you’ve got to read up this Month’s AFM there are detailed sections about the IAF procurements. IAF just finished up with there first Indigenously Assembled (Russian kit) Flanker.


True,but by 2015 IAF will atleast have 160 MKI's.

Maybe a squadron of Tu-22M3 bombers??
Those are for Navy not for Airforce.
They are Maritime Strike Bombers.

[ajay_ijn]

Once the Indian Air-Chief Said that,by 2020 IAF wants to have amibitious Fighter 60 Squadrons(1080 Aircraft).
http://quickstart.clari.net/qs_se/webnews/wed/bp/Qindia-military-airforce.RZvE_DN7.html
Presently IAF has 39 squadrons will fall to 32 becoz of LCA Delay so IAF wants to buy 125 Mirage-20000-5.
They want to have 45 squardons by 2010.
Why is IAF Concentrating on numbers???

For IAF to have so may squardons,Atleast one Figter must be under mass production.
Which Fighter would it be??
LCA???
Its cost is 25 Million Dollars,Can peform missions like air-defence and CAS.
Mig-29m2???
Latest version of Mig-29,Can carry many Air to Ground Muntions and Engine problems are solved.
But Mig-29 did not perform well in IAF Service so Mig-29 won't be an option.

[Swaroop]

Dear Friends, living in Bangalore, (thogh I didnt visit the Aero-india), I happened to get a good glance at the LCA-tejas. ..

Man, all these things I read about the jet in the news, seems to be 'weak(if I could get another word)'.

The LCA, they claim, can fly at Mach1.8. But, it looked so fragile and small! A huge gale would have blown it off its flight course, just like a breeze would make a paper kite lose stability :(

And, the IAF's plan to get 126 new forign aircraft may be a hint that the LCA may be a . . . failure??? any thoughts please?

and, what's up with the carrier based version of LCA. ???

When countries are plotting to get the X-35 JSF, for future carrier based operations, how can the LCA be operating from a carrier?

[Swaroop]

hmm, thats too optimistic!

any info on progress of MCA now ?

[RealIndian]

hmm, thats too optimistic!

any info on progress of MCA now ?

Home-grown fighters for air force

B.R. SRIKANTH

Bangalore, June 5,2004 : The swadeshi element in the Indian Air Force fleet will swell soon with defence laboratories set to design a fifth generation (advanced) multi-role fighter jet with features of stealth and electronic warfare systems.

The homegrown medium combat aircraft (MCA) will eventually replace the Jaguar, Mirage 2000, MiG-23 and the MiG-27, now being flown by the country’s air strike wing. It will be designed at Bangalore’s Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) — the one that built the light combat aircraft Tejas — along with a host of laboratories of the Defence Research and Development Organisation.

The first step towards building the MCA — the project definition phase where the design of the fighter jet and other key attributes are laid out — will be initiated now and completed in a year.

According to V.K. Aatre, DRDO chief and scientific adviser to the defence minister, the confidence to venture into a project of this magnitude came from recent successes — of the LCA, advanced light helicopter and the light transport aircraft.

“We have written a preliminary report and started a dialogue with our colleagues. We have been talking to the users (IAF) and are looking forward to the ASR (air staff requirements that define the capabilities the fighter should have).”

Aatre said the ADA would begin focusing on the new fighter jet in the next two months, possibly August, after the maiden flight of the second prototype of the LCA. The Tejas is on course for integration of weapons (2005-06), initial operational clearance and induction into the IAF by 2010.

“I am confident the government will place orders for two squadrons (40 fighter jets) for the IAF by then (2010),” he said. His colleagues, too, were optimistic of pulling off the project with the experience gained in design and fabrication of Tejas.

Certain crucial components like the wings, the Kaveri engine and some systems and sub-systems of Tejas will be used for the new fighter aircraft. This will help scale down development costs from the projected $2 billion budget. At a later stage, the production lines set up for Tejas could be upgraded to roll out the MCA.

“At this point, all we can say is that it will be a twin-engine, tailless delta wing (swept back wings) design without a vertical stabiliser or rudder. To enhance its stealth capabilities, we plan to fit the external fuel tanks on top of the wings and for internal carriage of weapons,” a colleague of the DRDO chief said.

The MCA will have a range of 800-1,000 km and match the requirements of fifth generation fighters.

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1040606/asp/nation/story_3338057.asp

[aaaditya]

in an interview on headlines today indian air chief stated the india will purchase an initial batch of 40 lca's(with an option for 20 more) at a cost of rs4000crores(each lca will cost about 22.8 million dollars) also that the weapons alogrithms for the lca have been completed and that it will be weapons teste4d this year. check out the aeroindia 2005 documentary on ndtv tommorow at 8.30pm ist.:D

[XEROX]

Regarding the stealth aspect of the MCA, I wonder if it will be using scattering techniques like the (triangles) F-117 or if it will just be coated with RAM, I question what they’ll do regarding heat reduction

For low visibility dont paint it white like the LCA:coffee

[A Khan]

I have a question: reading this article regarding the MCA, could someone tell me what will be the difference between the MCA and the joint russian-indian PAK-FA (or whatever it is now called) ?

wouldnt it be better for india to invest the bulk of its money in one of these two planes? i mean india must have learnt a lot from the LCA-project and given the money it has, and its easy access to russian and western tech i think MCA would be a very good project, if India can pull it off, then by selling it, India could earn lot of cash... just my opinion, but any thoughts from you guys on that?

[Hammerdamage]

As far as I know, yes the Indians have share in it & r making it togather with Russian although the major work is being done by Russians. Hence it will definitly be inducted in to the IAF, "IF" it passes all the tests like engine test etc.
So far two of the best Russian ACs have gone back to closet, for ever, m talking about Su-40 (S-37) Birkut & MiG-1.42. Realy waiting for PAK-FA, its funny that its based completely on Birkut will Birkut is a failure project.
Anyways Birkut was a tech demon, it did its job to give way to PAK-FA.

During the Senate Armed Services Committee Budget meeting last week Jumper was asked by McCain or Warner why we needed more than ~180 F-22 Raptors. His answer was that the SU-30 is deployed threat to the F-15 and that the next generation fighter..."the SU-40....is already on the Board". I know someone will say he stated that to dramatize the need for the 22, but I disagree...he was not answering Hillary Clinton, but rather McCain/Warner...who accepted the answer as fact. If the SU-40 was not coming, McCain would have jumped all over Jumper(no p intended) in a heartbeat. Just not sure if the SU-40/MFS/S-47 are all the same plane. When the transcript is released I will post Jumpers statement.

[highsea]

Let's look at the real world. The Kaveiri is at least 4-5 years out. No LCA's will go into early service (3-5 years) without GE engines. The first LCA's with Kaveiri engines could possibly come online around 2010. If the MCA is going to use the same engine, we are talking about 10 years after that, best case. So let's say 2020 for the MCA. That's optimistic, because it takes 10-15 years in dem/op/eval before a new AC is ready to go, assuming you have your sh*t together, which India does not (at least by western standards). And the MCA is just on the drawing board. i.e, no full scale mockups, no wind tunnel tests, etc.

Now compare that to the Pak-fa. Sukhoi has done most of the preliminary already (3-4 years worth), and the AL-41F is pretty much sorted out. Pak-fa will be a S-37 (SU-47 Berkut), aka T-50, but without the FSW (which suck at high speeds, crappy loadout, crappy RCS, but great for manouverability). If the prototypes get built on schedule ($$$$), the first ones could fly late next year. Say another 7-8 years in dem/op/eval/lrip/frp, and India could be fielding a fifth gen fighter in 10 years. But FSW's though they look neat, are proven failures.

India would be foolish to try to fund both projects simultaneously, and there is no way that MCA will be ready to field in ten years without sacrificing the Pak-fa. Not being critical of India, but she hasn't even built a 4th gen fighter yet, and a tailless 5th gen fighter is way out of reach, because that by definition, means all-aspect stealth. Better to go with the Sukhoi, which will have frontal aspect stealth, and be a fully functional fighter (kind of a souped-up JSF).

Wrt the 126 AC. India should just get the Mirage 2K5. Good grief. It's the only AC that fits. Don't waste any more money on MiG-29's, don't buy F-16, but it might be worth it to upgrade the MiG-29 to SMT standard, and dump the RD-33's for RD-93's. Get the single crystal fan blades and glass cockpit, it'll make it a decent AC, instead of a sitting duck with no service life in the engine.

But all you Indians on this board better start digging into your pockets. Nuclear subs, Aircraft carriers, and fifth generation fighters don't come cheap. ;)

[adsH]

Indian tax payers are already Paying for all this, the government has introduced War Tax apparently can someone elaborate on this. the shopping list goes onn and onn. and then after 5 years or 10 years these assets would need a decent upgrade then it would really cost shiet loads.

[Swaroop]

and, I agree that PAK-FA and MCA ---India funding them together would be foolish . . . but not impossible

however, if my descision were to count, I would urge the government of India to put off the MCA, collab on the PAK-FA ( after making sure that the PAK-FA is not a front swept wing!!!!!!! )

and, in stead of MCA, spend some money on UNMANNED drones, which should use jet engiens of scrapped MiG-21s , and unmanned drones will be by 2025 more useful than a manned craft, ( provided computer power keeps increasing as it is now)

[srirangan]

>> the government has introduced War Tax

No. lol.

[ajay_ijn]

Don't waste any more money on MiG-29's, don't buy F-16, but it might be worth it to upgrade the MiG-29 to SMT standard, and dump the RD-33's for RD-93's. Get the single crystal fan blades and glass cockpit, it'll make it a decent AC, instead of a sitting duck with no service life in the engine


Yeah.
Russia and India already agreed to upgrade Mig-29,Mig-27 and Su-30MKI.
Mig-29 will be getting some new avionics,Mig-27 will get Laser Range Finder.


and, in stead of MCA, spend some money on UNMANNED drones, which should use jet engiens of scrapped MiG-21s , and unmanned drones will be by 2025 more useful than a manned craft, ( provided computer power keeps increasing as it is now)

Its not possible to make a modern drone with such a old fighter engine.
Instead India must invest more money on Much needed BMD Systems.
Missile Defence Systems is the most important for India now.


Good Video of the worlds most Classic,Legendary and finest Fighter F-16.
http://www.lockheedmartin.com/data/assets/7056.mov
This is the video of Block 60.

[dragonfire]

I was already doing research on the same thing when i stumbled upon this thread, so allow me to jot down the findings albeit on a thread last updated in 2005.

The Projected Fighter Strength of IAF at the end of 2015
(all projections do not account for attritions which will happen and or the attrition reserves in place or the fighters in storage)

Su-30MKI (and/or variants) - 230
Mirrage 2000H,TH,05 standards - 46
Mig-29 Fulcrum - 54
SEPECAT Jaguar - 102 (including Maritime Strike Fighters)
Mig-27 Flogger - 99
Mig-21 Bison - 117

Total - 648

Projected Additional Fighters

MMRCA - 18 fighters plus 30 - 48 *
Su-30MKI - 50 **
HAL Tejas - 20 ***

GRAND TOTAL - 766 (maximum)

Which is a respectable strength, although the Mig-21 Bison will be retired by 2017. The Mig-27 by 2020 and the Jaguars by 2025 (IIRC). There will be suffcient replacements coming in by way MMRCA, Hal Tejas Mark2, MCA and FGFA

However the most concerning timeframe in the near future is from 2012 begining, where the total Fighter strength of the IAF would be at 563 against a strength of around 695 fighters at the begining of this year (09)


* 18 Fighters will be delivered within that time frame in fly-away condition (probably around 2013-14) and upto 30 aircraft assembeled or licencse built at HAL @ 15 nos a year (which is a challenge for HAL prior to the current order for the Su-30MKI being delivered and simultaneously managing the Production Line for the HAL Tejas)

** The IAF has recently requested the Defence Ministry to consider acquisition of about 50 additional Su-30MKI fighters. If this goes through and the order is given to Sukhoi then they will be able to deliver the same within that timeframe, however if the order is routed to HAL then they will not be able to deliver that (within 2015) as they are already chock a block with the current order inventory

*** The IAF had ordered 20 fighters which will be delivered probably by 2013. There isnt a single Mark 2 variant in place now and it will take upto 4 years to get IOC which means that there might be a IAF order before (possibly a large order) 2015 but it is doubtful delivery would start by that time. The Mark 1 variant will be based in South India (which would be for the first time that the SAC will be having its own squadron strength in fighters in modern IAF History)