This is a discussion on Philippine Air Force Discussions and Updates within the Air Force & Aviation forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by Pragmatist
In 2020 the design will be obsolete and replaced by the F35 and FA22 in the ...
In 2020 the design will be obsolete and replaced by the F35 and FA22 in the US. Must the PAF spend precious money on products that will be obsolete in 10 years time? There are so many factors to consider.
Obsolesence is relative to whatever is on the threat matrix
F-16's will be in service past 2035.
________________ A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
the insurgency in Mindanao, is very much reduced. The Separatists have got the message.
Have the separatists really ''got the message'' ? Several decades later the NPA and MILF still poses a huge problem for the government. The good news is that the ASG is a shadow of its former self.
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Originally Posted by Pragmatist
The PAF should be praised for using limited resources.
Indeed not only the PAF but the AFP sould be praised given that all 3 services are very underfunded and have huge reponsibilities. Especially in the case of the PN who operates a largely antiquated fleet yet has a huge coastline to patrol, in addition to the Philippines posessions in the Spratleys. No one disputing the comittment shown by the AFP in meeting its operational comittments despite being neglected by its political masters.
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Originally Posted by Pragmatist
Yes, there are US Special Forces in South East Asia, active and engaged. Hence the example given.
For an interesting perspective on the state of the army and the U.S. involvement, ''Imperial Grunts'' by Kaplan makes a good read.
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Originally Posted by Pragmatist
As I have said before the Mutual Defence Treaty sets certain guarantees for the Philippines, an arrangement not enjoyed by any other nation in ASEAN. With the current arrangement, there are no need for F16s.
Then again, given the current inability of the AFP to defend the sovereignty of the Philippines against an external threat, the Philippines is much more in need of a U.S security umbrella than any of its ASEAN neighbours. As you’re no doubt aware, the U.S. in the past has made it clear that the Mutual Defence Treaty does not include security guarantees by the U.S. over any ‘’unpleasantness’’breaking out over the Spratleys dispute.
Despite being asked politely by OPSSG to provide details about yourself and by me about your nationality, you have not replied. Whilst you're not in any way required or obligated to respond to our questions, a reply would be considered as a form of courtesy.
Last edited by STURM; December 26th, 2009 at 09:38 AM.
Obsolesence is relative to whatever is on the threat matrix
F-16's will be in service past 2035.
That depends on the client/user, and not prospective buyers. I agree obsolescence is relative to "the opponent/enemy/belligerent" countered, but in this case, an OV10 Bronco and the SD211 are more than adequate to deal with guerillas and warlords in Mindanao.
An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with. I think money spent on winning hearts and minds is far cheaper than buying F16s that are expensive to fly and maintain.
War and conflict is just an extension of politics. The Separatists have returned to the table, the communists are weak, and the warlords imprisoned. It has been interesting times in Mindanao.
That depends on the client/user, and not prospective buyers.
Why not? There will continue to be prospective buyers of the F-16. Its probably the most flexible warload friendly 4th gen fighter in use today - and its utility is far from spent. Any doubt on that needs consideration of what the Israelis and Singaporeans have done to theirs. There will be countries in the 2025 timeframe that will be hitting similar capability requirements and where the F16 will be at an attractive capability price-point
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatist
I agree obsolescence is relative to "the opponent/enemy/belligerent" countered, but in this case, an OV10 Bronco and the SD211 are more than adequate to deal with guerillas and warlords in Mindanao.
Nations don't prepare for "one threat wonders". The Fils have more than insurgency threats to factor in. If the insurgents were their sole threat then they could restructure their entire armed forces to a paramilitary-specwarrie construct
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatist
An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with. I think money spent on winning hearts and minds is far cheaper than buying F16s that are expensive to fly and maintain.
If there is only one threat then that's a perfect world. The issue is whether they still have relevance against whats defined in their entire threat matrix - not just what is visible today. countries that have blithely planned away for just one threat have sometimes paid the price. History shows that. The merits and the proportion of the spend have to be considered - but to assume that x=y therefore we don't need z anymore is just planning indolence
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatist
War and conflict is just an extension of politics. The Separatists have returned to the table, the communists are weak, and the warlords imprisoned. It has been interesting times in Mindanao.
Cheers
War is also about a capacity to inflict maximum violence upon the enemy in the most decisive and brutal fashion available and acceptable to your population via the elected govt of the day and by using your armed forces as the vehicle of that delivery if so deemed necessary.
The same philosophy apples to New Zealand except they don't have a separatist issue to the same level of public discord and volume
________________ A corollary of Finagle's Law, similar to Occam's Razor, says:
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity"
...As yet I don't see the relevance of an F16 for the PAF. In 2020 the design will be obsolete and replaced by the F35 and FA22 in the US. Must the PAF spend precious money on products that will be obsolete in 10 years time? There are so many factors to consider...
...
...An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with...
Beyond Pakistan (who is taking delivery of 18 new F-16s and upgrading 42 of their existing F-16s), I can think of four other 3rd world countries who have recently chosen to either buy new or 2nd hand F-16s. They are as follows:
(iv) Chile's government also bought 18 second-hand F-16s from the Dutch government.
BTW, Morocco is a first time F-16 buyer. So I don't think that the 5 above-mentioned countries think that F-16s will be obsolete in 10 years time. Further, I believe that Chile and Jordan got F-16s at cheap and cheerful prices. And of course Egypt and Pakistan are major US military aid recipients.
Central to my stream of thought is whether the PAF currently has the right precision tools to be able to influence the outcome in any fight. The answer must be no. While the PAF has some tools like to OV-10 Bronco, their current tool set for COIN is very limited. IMO, the S211 provides basic functionality without the capability to effectively discriminate between civilian and military targets in their operating area, thereby limiting PAF's utility.
The problem as I see it is not the relevance of the F-16 or even its price. The US is rich enough to donate a couple of old F-16s (as excess defence articles) but the problem is that the PAF must have the budget to train on them and operate the fleet. As I see it, it is the inability of your government to increase your country's tax base or to meet 2009's P798.5-billion collection target, resulting in the need to under invest in everything ranging from health care to education to your military. In fact, in Oct 2009, Sixto Esquivias IV resigned as commissioner of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) because, according to him, “it was the honorable thing to do... The BIR has a large tax collection shortfall right now, and I feel ashamed to stay.”
Last edited by OPSSG; January 7th, 2010 at 09:20 AM.
Reason: included links
]That depends on the client/user, and not prospective buyers. I agree obsolescence is relative to "the opponent/enemy/belligerent" countered, but in this case, an OV10 Bronco and the SD211 are more than adequate to deal with guerillas and warlords in Mindanao.
An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with. I think money spent on winning hearts and minds is far cheaper than buying F16s that are expensive to fly and maintain.
War and conflict is just an extension of politics. The Separatists have returned to the table, the communists are weak, and the warlords imprisoned. It has been interesting times in Mindanao.
Cheers[/quote]
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT?
Kfir jets are $7Meach (low maintenance) Introduced 1975
F16= $14-18M each(high maintenance) Introduced 1978
F18= $29M each (high maintenance) 1st flight 1978,introduced 1983
So almost same age for less cost, but as good in performance as others! You can buy (2) Kfirs=1 F16 and (4) Kfirs= 1 F18.....hmmmm.???? Please send this to Philippine Air force and Philippine govt.
What the Philippines need is something like this within their budget... It's a multi role fighter jet at the same time interceptor!! some might say it's old because they prefer the F16S,18s but come to think of it considering it is limited for use to only US ally's, meaning it still is a powerful jet up to now if it goes into the wrong hands, something that the US see as a threat!!!......
3 Squadron (8) =(24) Kfir c10 will command respect even if they have 4.5 gen jets
I think this is what the Philippines needs now for a start! While saving for the best later on, and try to spread the budget for other stuffs like,anti missiles,etc.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT FIGHTER JETS PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN EVERY WAR.....IT'S THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO DISABLE , PENETRATE AND DESTROY YOUR ENEMY BEFORE THEY ATTACK!
Why do you think of all the weapons of every country why FIGHTER JETS has the most no.? look at US ,CHINA,RUSSIA.........
Recently the Philippine govt. paid P2.8B for 8 bnew sokol combat helicopters from poland out of the P5.5B yearly budget for PAF, and was trying to purchase a presidential jet worth P1.2B but was cancelled due to issues of complaints.
Now we have some change from the P5.5B budget minus P2.8B = P2.7 add the P1.2B budget (pres.jet)= P3.9B available funds.
P3.9 B= $86,946,822.16 enough to buy ( 10 to 12) Kfir jets for a start!!!!! What are they waiting for????
I think it's the best we can buy that suits our budget, cost and maintenance wise! and are still powerful and can compete w/ other 4.5 gen jets....
Recently the Philippine govt. paid P2.8B for 8 bnew sokol combat helicopters from poland out of the P5.5B yearly budget for PAF, and was trying to purchase a presidential jet worth P1.2B but was cancelled due to issues of complaints.
Now we have some change from the P5.5B budget minus P2.8B = P2.7 add the P1.2B budget (pres.jet)= P3.9B available funds.
P3.9 B= $86,946,822.16 enough to buy ( 10 to 12) Kfir jets for a start!!!!! What are they waiting for????
I think it's the best we can buy that suits our budget, cost and maintenance wise! and are still powerful and can compete w/ other 4.5 gen jets....
Uh... the May 10 Presidential Elections?
The new President will try to find ways to take half of the P3.9B budget to himself, and then the other half to the generals, and end up with no jets.
Recently the Philippine govt. paid P2.8B for 8 bnew sokol combat helicopters from poland out of the P5.5B yearly budget for PAF, and was trying to purchase a presidential jet worth P1.2B but was cancelled due to issues of complaints.
Now we have some change from the P5.5B budget minus P2.8B = P2.7 add the P1.2B budget (pres.jet)= P3.9B available funds.
P3.9 B= $86,946,822.16 enough to buy ( 10 to 12) Kfir jets for a start!!!!! What are they waiting for????
I think it's the best we can buy that suits our budget, cost and maintenance wise! and are still powerful and can compete w/ other 4.5 gen jets....
The Sokols were acquired to satisfy goals laid out as part of the first phase of the Capability Upgrade Program. They are needed for the immediate battle, to improve the AFP's transport and mobility condition, and therefore rightly takes precedence over fighter aircraft.
The PN's Multi Purpose Vessel (MPV) is also expected to arrive before MRFs, for the same reason.
There is a lot more to an effective fighter force than just the aircraft.
There is also the issue of operation and maintenance. You have to consider how much it costs to operate the aircraft. See this for details about the prevailing budgetary picture: Philippine defense spending.
There is also the issue of longevity of the airframe. Administrative Order 169 prescribes minimum requirements that 2nd-hand equipment must satisfy to be considered for operational use. These are lessons learned from our bitter experience with 2nd-hand, supposedly refurbished, F-8s. See here for details: Requirements for the acquisition of 2nd-hand equipment
Finally, fighter aircraft are of little use in the absence of a radar network that would guide them to their targets. Both MRFs and radars are addressed as part of the PAF component of the Capability Upgrade Program. You can't have one without the other, which is why the AFP intends to pursue both in tandem.
Yes no question to the sokols they are badly needed, but I think the MRF's plus radars should be the next on the priority lists than sea vessels. the PAF's fighter jet plays a big role in any country's air space and security against intrusion, it is the first and the quickest to react against any problem of security before a threat reaches a land base. all our military, equipments and bases defences including sea vessels are protected by MRF's, without it they're all a sitting duck targets against enemy MRF's!!!!! and the fact that the PAF not having MRF's is a big no,no! they should have thought about that before they kicked the US bases!!!!!
FIGHTER JETS for PAF a MUST BE FIRST IN PRIORITY LISTS!
p.s.
I saw those MPVessel on another site they are totally rubbish and for me a waste of money! Im sure the package comes with a hidden deal???!! what a waste you think it's more capable of defending a wide area of air land and sea and can respond faster than MRF's??!!!
you see how they're mind works on priorities? it's moneymoney!
I have to agree with the Kfir assessment. Its cheap, and the version the Israelis sold Columbia are fairly updated with a good Israeli made EL/M-2032 radar. With the Derby and Python 4, it can have pretty decent BVR and good WVR capabilities as well.
Going with the 2nd hand F-16s on the other hand would be slightly more expensive but a good bet on the aircraft's phenomenal reputation as a multirole fighter. Not only have many countries flown it, its has also been constantly upgraded to increase its mission effectiveness.
Whichever it is, both are good jets to consider on a budget, though I'd prefer the F-16 any day. A better reach with AIM-120s being a key consideration when dealing with potential adversaries with weapons of considerable reach as well.
You got one thing right, regarding the importance of priorities. Getting one's priorities right is actually the reason why the MPV will precede MRFs.
Here's food for thought. If a house is burning, what will you prioritize first if you could only do one task at a time:
a) Putting out the fire
b) Fixing the perimeter fence to keep looters out
MRFs are external facing, and therefore is analogous to the perimeter fence. What use is fixing the fence if everything you owned has turned to ashes?
The Philippines, today, faces an internal insurgency that shows shades of conventional conflict every 10 years, requiring rapid movement of assets from other relatively peaceful areas to the trouble spots. Every year it faces typhoons that require the transfer of relief goods in large quantities. Its immediate external threat is to its EEZ, which requires a persistent presence on the sea -- the kind that aircraft, by virtue of endurance and speed, cannot provide.
The MPV, and the helicopters it carries, can perform all those missions.
It is for this reason that the navy, particularly the MPV is viewed in the same category as the Sokols. It is also the same reason that 1/4-ton trucks were given priority over armored fighting vehicles. Materiel transports must come first, because they are needed NOW.
MRFs are important. But, in the final analysis, their immediate absence will not endanger the republic the way lack of effective transports will.
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Originally Posted by AVBsupersonic
the PAF's fighter jet plays a big role in any country's air space and security against intrusion, it is the first and the quickest to react against any problem of security before a threat reaches a land base. all our military, equipments and bases defences including sea vessels are protected by MRF's, without it they're all a sitting duck targets against enemy MRF's!!!!! and the fact that the PAF not having MRF's is a big no,no!
Which is why the PAF is indeed working to acquire MRFs. But even before MRFs are acquired, there are a multitude of other items that have to acquired in advance.
You need Lead-In Fighter Trainers to prepare your pilots to handle the MRFs when they arrive. You need to train your aircraft maintenance crews to handle the new technology that MRFs bring. PAF bases must be prepared accept the MRFs. Radars must be in place.
All the preparatory work is set to happen in the second phase of the Capability Upgrade Program. MRFs are set for the third.
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they should have thought about that before they kicked the US bases!!!!!
Don't blame the AFP for this. Blame the politicians.
Last edited by adroth; April 30th, 2010 at 07:51 PM.
] SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT?
Kfir jets are $7Meach (low maintenance) Introduced 1975
F16= $14-18M each(high maintenance) Introduced 1978
F18= $29M each (high maintenance) 1st flight 1978,introduced 1983
So almost same age for less cost, but as good in performance as others! You can buy (2) Kfirs=1 F16 and (4) Kfirs= 1 F18.....hmmmm.???? Please send this to Philippine Air force and Philippine govt.
What the Philippines need is something like this within their budget... It's a multi role fighter jet at the same time interceptor!! some might say it's old because they prefer the F16S,18s but come to think of it considering it is limited for use to only US ally's, meaning it still is a powerful jet up to now if it goes into the wrong hands, something that the US see as a threat!!!......
3 Squadron (8) =(24) Kfir c10 will command respect even if they have 4.5 gen jets
I think this is what the Philippines needs now for a start! While saving for the best later on, and try to spread the budget for other stuffs like,anti missiles,etc.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT FIGHTER JETS PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN EVERY WAR.....IT'S THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO DISABLE , PENETRATE AND DESTROY YOUR ENEMY BEFORE THEY ATTACK!
Why do you think of all the weapons of every country why FIGHTER JETS has the most no.? look at US ,CHINA,RUSSIA.........
You can post this message in Adroth's unofficial Philippine defense website - timawa<dot>net/forum which can be seen by many Philippine Military men and the under secretary of the Philippine Department of Defense but you will definitely get a lot of critics who wants to stay with the S211 and acquire an F16 in the future (the poll there states that the F16 is the champion amongst Timawans).
I too is starting to believe that the KFIR can be the best solution to the Philippine Air Force's needs for a low cost, all-weather and combat-proven air defense interceptor and fast attack plane.
I too is starting to believe that the KFIR can be the best solution to the Philippine Air Force's needs for a low cost, all-weather and combat-proven air defense interceptor and fast attack plane.
Where else can you get a Mach 2 burning, 6000kg payload carting, modern FCR seeing, DERBY and Python 4 + HMCS shooting fighter at under $20 million a pop??? The Kfir is definitely an excellent platform as long as you get zero hour airframes and a decent price. If however you can find an F-16 Block 30 for a comparable price you'd be crazy to go with an upgraded Mirage 3.
Where else can you get a Mach 2 burning, 6000kg payload carting, modern FCR seeing, DERBY and Python 4 + HMCS shooting fighter at under $20 million a pop??? The Kfir is definitely an excellent platform as long as you get zero hour airframes and a decent price. If however you can find an F-16 Block 30 for a comparable price you'd be crazy to go with an upgraded Mirage 3.
Ozzy just wandering, I know Kfir is much lower cost to acquire than F 16..however how about the logistics for furthe rmaintanance down the road. I don't know for this days onward, having fighters that the production lines already having been stop for some time still a good thing.
Example, TNI AU recently turn back offer from Qatar for Mirage F-1 eventhough it's close to a grant (no acquisitions costs). Reasoning was potential higher and rising maintanance costs.
I know Kfir uses many US components, thus eventhough it's like Mirage, actually it's close to an US aircraft. Still many of the components productions even in Israel already being closed down for some time. How long you can maintain an aircraft like that relly on continue dwindling spare parts sources.
I think for Philipines, they should go for F 16. If they can't found enough budgets to maintain F 16, then perhaps they should wait longger rather than servicing potential money drain like Kfir in the long run.
