This is a discussion on Official Chengdu J-20 Discussion Thread within the Air Force & Aviation forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; Originally Posted by Viktor
Right.
Pak-FA ????...
The likelyhood that the PLAAF will have a fighter in the capabilities of the F-22 by 2020 is unrealistic. Look how long it took to develop the Raptor. Even with China's large man power, they don't have any experience developing an aircraft that complex. I don't doubt they could develop a aircraft that looks like the F-22, and can be as or more manuverable by then. If the aircraft use Russian all aspect thrust vectoring nozzles, the jet could have awesome moves in the air. I think the part China will have problems developing is the advance stealth tecnology and advance avionics. Remember the U.S. has about a 20 year advantage in stealth technology. Also the F-22 is considered by many of the pilots that fly it an Mini-AWACS. The Raptor can pull in / push out so much information it is in a class by itself. China will be able to duplicate some aspects of the F-22 in the next 15 years but not all of them.
It's true that to get a complete F22 equivalent plane for China in 2020 is very difficult, if not entirely impossible.
But it's also true that some of F22's advanced capabilities are unique to US's need. To China, or to many other countries that don't need to do "global attacking", the requirements can be lowered down and still be able to hold its ground against F22.
In one word, China's Jxx definitely won't achieve all the specs of F22. It will only pick some of them to suit their defensive requirements.
The likelyhood that the PLAAF will have a fighter in the capabilities of the F-22 by 2020 is unrealistic. Look how long it took to develop the Raptor. Even with China's large man power, they don't have any experience developing an aircraft that complex. I don't doubt they could develop a aircraft that looks like the F-22, and can be as or more manuverable by then. If the aircraft use Russian all aspect thrust vectoring nozzles, the jet could have awesome moves in the air. I think the part China will have problems developing is the advance stealth tecnology and advance avionics. Remember the U.S. has about a 20 year advantage in stealth technology. Also the F-22 is considered by many of the pilots that fly it an Mini-AWACS. The Raptor can pull in / push out so much information it is in a class by itself. China will be able to duplicate some aspects of the F-22 in the next 15 years but not all of them.
You are not thinking about Russians. Russians by my opinion will hell Chinese build 5th generation plane for a money no doubt about it - just like tons of other stuff.
To China, or to many other countries that don't need to do "global attacking", the requirements can be lowered down and still be able to hold its ground against F22.
Exactly china doesn't need an F-22 equivalent to shoot down another F-22. The chinesse dont even have to aim as high as being able to shoot down F-22's, they just need the ability to reach the level of the Navy JSF and Super hornet.
If you took an aircraft in the class of a Saab Gripen and made it using the best stealth techniques possible and acheived a radar cross section equal to that of a F-22 then it would be BIG trouble to the US.
China doesn't need advanced communication to link its fighters into a network. A Chinesse interceptor would need only two internal medium range missiles which could be applied on a very small aircraft. Remember if you have an airforce with 1000 aircraft (china) and an airforce with 100 advanced aircraft (USA) and they go head to head, then the advanced aircraft needs to carry 10 times as many missiles just in case.
Engine performance of the Chinesse aircraft doesn't matter, information display doesn't matter, all it needs is excellent stealth and a decent radar or even loose the radar completely and go with passive Infrared. These features in a Mig-21 size aircraft would mean big trouble to the US as China could make over 1000 of these aircraft. This would provide a wall preventing all JSF's and Bomber aircraft from entering Chinesse airspace.
All china needs is an aircraft that cannot be easily picked off at beyond vision range by F-22's. You dont even need the ability to pull 9G, a modified F-117 would be fine. As long its stealthy enough so that the F-22 can only detect the chinesse aircraft at say 50miles and the chinesse aircraft detects the F-22 at 40miles. The Chinesse will never be able to match the US when it comes to radar, it will be lucky to ever have a radar that is half as powerful. As the F-22 produces considerable heat when supercruising IR is probably the best way to go, combined with a stealthy aircraft so you can get close enough to an F-22 so that it doesn't see you first. The two air to air missiles could use the same IR tracking, so radar is not used at all.
This same small aircraft you could replace the two medium range air to air missile with an air to ground version giving 100+ mile standoff range. Better yet the air to missile can also attack ground targets. US navy would be shitting themselves as by the time they detect the chinesse aircraft that would be the indication that they just released their missile and its on their way. Again the navy ships could be located using IR from relatively far away, then the missile itself tracks that same boat using autonomus passive tracking allowing the Chinesse aircraft to turn around while the a missile is launched.
The potential threat of a wave of 30 of these aircraft would be enough to have the carrier battle groups located very far off shore. Also the Navy would have to double the number of escorts for the E-2 hawkeye just in case it detects 30 aircraft at 100 miles and closing with only two super hornets protecting it. The superhornets would shoot down a few but then the 20 chinesse aircraft proceed to shoot down the hawkeye and then shooting the remaining missile at the US navy ships.
This is why its crucial that the USAF doubles or even tripples its F-22 order as its the only aircraft that the chinesse will never be able to match.
The likelyhood that the PLAAF will have a fighter in the capabilities of the F-22 by 2020 is unrealistic. Look how long it took to develop the Raptor. Even with China's large man power, they don't have any experience developing an aircraft that complex. I don't doubt they could develop a aircraft that looks like the F-22, and can be as or more manuverable by then. If the aircraft use Russian all aspect thrust vectoring nozzles, the jet could have awesome moves in the air. I think the part China will have problems developing is the advance stealth tecnology and advance avionics. Remember the U.S. has about a 20 year advantage in stealth technology. Also the F-22 is considered by many of the pilots that fly it an Mini-AWACS. The Raptor can pull in / push out so much information it is in a class by itself. China will be able to duplicate some aspects of the F-22 in the next 15 years but not all of them.
Hi ! yea you are right china wont be able to match F-22 Raptor in next 15 years but at least they are trying to ( IF J-XX exists ) Some one on this forum said that " China will leave Russia behind in terms of Technology used in most of areas " and I agree with it just look at the the leap advances in space or Aircraft Technology ( its debatable if Chinese are actually trying to copy others more than focusing on research )
I read it J-10 has almost every time over came to Su-27/Su-30/J-11 ( again the source is Wikipedia ) but lets just appreciate J-10 is a success which few people believed China will ever be able to do so.
Rather than saying China will never be able to do that or USA will ever have the supremacy in the air its ridiculous. It has happened in past when superpowers were considered invisible but they collapsed Question is WHEN rather than IF .
I agree with rjmaz1 China does’t need J-XX to be as effective as F-22 for now I don’t see any war b/w USA and China in near future. Never underestimate your opponents either they can or can’t only time will tell but yea J-XX wont match F-22 in 15 years.
Hi ! yea you are right china wont be able to match F-22 Raptor in next 15 years but at least they are trying to ( IF J-XX exists ) Some one on this forum said that " China will leave Russia behind in terms of Technology used in most of areas " and I agree with it just look at the the leap advances in space or Aircraft Technology ( its debatable if Chinese are actually trying to copy others more than focusing on research )
I read it J-10 has almost every time over came to Su-27/Su-30/J-11 ( again the source is Wikipedia ) but lets just appreciate J-10 is a success which few people believed China will ever be able to do so.
Rather than saying China will never be able to do that or USA will ever have the supremacy in the air its ridiculous. It has happened in past when superpowers were considered invisible but they collapsed Question is WHEN rather than IF .
I agree with rjmaz1 China does’t need J-XX to be as effective as F-22 for now I don’t see any war b/w USA and China in near future. Never underestimate your opponents either they can or can’t only time will tell but yea J-XX wont match F-22 in 15 years.
Cheers
China will leave Russia in tehnology in some parallel unverese maybe.
J-10 you are mentioning is made by Izraels help (first Lavi project) after because of US preassure got cancelled Russians finished project, even engine is Russian etc ...
China gets Russian help in all branches of warfare weapons.
China is still 20 years behind in weapons tehnology - it has modern weapons simply because of buying and excellent knowledge in copy - paste technic.
China will leave Russia in tehnology in some parallel unverese maybe.
J-10 you are mentioning is made by Izraels help (first Lavi project) after because of US preassure got cancelled Russians finished project, even engine is Russian etc ...
China gets Russian help in all branches of warfare weapons.
China is still 20 years behind in weapons tehnology - it has modern weapons simply because of buying and excellent knowledge in copy - paste technic.
1-There is absolute no comparison between J-10 and Lavi fighter these are mere speculations just because it looks like Lavi fighter just google it or visit these links and if u got any prove of it than I would be glad to accept it ?? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Lavi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J-10
J-10 is the clone of Typhon that’s my speculation what about that ?? its nothing but nonsense we pint point something without any concrete prove.
2-I never said Russia isn’t helping China if you search J-10 project actually was initiated to counter SU series but the scenario has changed now Russian companies need money in order to stay in business and China has it that’s the main point in Soviet era the Defense budget was almost same of USA now Russia hasn’t got that much money in order to develop new technologies they need money on the other hand China has huge market there are already almost 10+ companies competing to provide next generation aircraft for PLAAF more the competition excellent the finished product plus the unit cost will also decrease when PLAAF will induct large numbers of plans which Russia doesn’t have at this moment. That’s were China is very strong and the way they are advancing they will defiantly leave Russia behind due to large number of skilled people , Huge Economy (potentional) and domestic market ( for plans ).
What if India go for F-18 or Typhon or Rafale for 126 MRCA deal who will loose Sukhoi and Mig and what if China stop buying Su27/Su30/J-11 as they already choose J-10 rather than J-11 who will loose ?? , what will be next move of Russia offer Su-30 Mki to Pakistan ?? ( Which i think will happen sooner or later when USA can offer planes to both India and Pakistan why Russia can't and if 126 MRCA deal goes to western side it can happen very soon )
Well Russia will have to look for new markets or these companies will die their own death because Russia don’t have domestic market like China. keeping in view all these point ( Mentioned China and Russia because biggest buyer of Russian made Products )
1-Economy ,2-Ability to purchase large number of aircrafts 3-Cheap cost 4-No Shortage of skilled people
China will leave Russia Behind soon if not 5 years than may be in 10.
Cheers
Last edited by uaf; October 22nd, 2006 at 02:05 PM.
Yea i read it there can be some help from Israel's companies but still it only looks like Lavi the satats does't , second there is comprehensive debate going on on F-16.net Pakistan never provided any thing of F-16 to Chinese thats what the team says which inspected F-16 in Pakistan.
1-There is absolute no comparison between J-10 and Lavi fighter these are mere speculations just because it looks like Lavi fighter just google it or visit these links and if u got any prove of it than I would be glad to accept it ?? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Lavi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J-10
J-10 is the clone of Typhon that’s my speculation what about that ?? its nothing but nonsense we pint point something without any concrete prove.
Lavi is not a clone of any fighter. By its capabilities Lavi surpassed F-16, was cheaper and US in a fear of loosing markets for F-16 baned its companies whitch where producing advanced parts for the fighter to do so and in exchange Israel was allowed to buy more advanced US weapons. Thats the truth.
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2-I never said Russia isn’t helping China if you search J-10 project actually was initiated to counter SU series but the scenario has changed now Russian companies need money in order to stay in business and China has it
Russians for the veary same reason (money) greatly helped PLA in designing advanced weapons. (subs, ships, planes, etc)
Russian will in future help Chinese design weapons and will probable sufininced some designs togeather now that they are becoming more politicaly, economicaly and military bound to each other, but Russia defence industry is gaining momentum around the world and China is not anymore main sorce of money for the crippled industry (Venecuela, Algeria, India, etc).
You are teribly wrong if you think Russia is not developing new weapon systems with full speed.
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that’s the main point in Soviet era the Defense budget was almost same of USA
Never was the same - few time less
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now Russia hasn’t got that much money in order to develop new technologies they need money
Look at the oil prices and the exports!
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on the other hand China has huge market there are already almost 10+ companies competing to provide next generation aircraft for PLAAF more the competition excellent the finished product plus the unit cost will also decrease when PLAAF will induct large numbers of plans which Russia doesn’t have at this moment.
Actualy its 2-3 companies whitch are compeating with extensive Russian help. Besides do you realy think Chinese J-xx will surpass PAK-FA?? Russia plans to buy 600 of them + unidetify number of Migs 5th generation fighter. So mutch about not having money.
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That’s were China is very strong and the way they are advancing they will defiantly leave Russia behind due to large number of skilled people , Huge Economy (potentional) and domestic market ( for plans ).
True but in a time certanly not 20-30 years from now.
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What if India go for F-18 or Typhon or Rafale for 126 MRCA deal who will loose Sukhoi and Mig and what if China stop buying Su27/Su30/J-11 as they already choose J-10 rather than J-11 who will loose ?? , what will be next move of Russia offer Su-30 Mki to Pakistan ?? ( Which i think will happen sooner or later when USA can offer planes to both India and Pakistan why Russia can't and if 126 MRCA deal goes to western side it can happen very soon
What if, what if??? India will most probably buy Mig-35 as it is not worse from F/A-18E/F and will arm its Migs as well as Su-30MKI with AESA radar as well as AL-31FM1 engines and it is mutch batter not to mix several diferent fighters. Maintaining!!!
india must thing in a big deal such is MCA on Russians too because it could easily happent --- Su-30MKP-- or some more advanced variant.
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China will leave Russia Behind soon if not 5 years than may be in 10.
I don't want to burst your bubble too much, but please don't use sources like Asian times, strategypage, missilethreat, FAS or wikipedia on anything Chinese related.
As for J-10 and Israelis, the J-10 project started in 1986 by CAC and the Israelis started their help in 1987 and left in 1995. J-10 didn't really become certified until late 2003 (or early 2004, depending on who you ask). As you can see, the Israeli were very helpful in J-10's development, but their real help has often been overrated. If you want to find out where J-10 drew most of its features, check the failed J-9 project (which is what CAC was working on before J-10). After looking through J-9, you will see plenty of resemblance in J-10. Also, a major point of note is that J-10 is a larger plane than Lavi and it uses a larger sized engine.
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Actualy its 2-3 companies whitch are compeating with extensive Russian help. Besides do you realy think Chinese J-xx will surpass PAK-FA?? Russia plans to buy 600 of them + unidetify number of Migs 5th generation fighter. So mutch about not having money.
you really have no idea about the Chinese military industry, do you? Check it up a little bit. Russia plans to buy 600? You guys got enough money to have 58 su-34 by 2015. Where do you think you are going to get money for 600 5th generation plane. Seriously, be a little realistic.
I don't want to burst your bubble too much, but please don't use sources like Asian times, strategypage, missilethreat, FAS or wikipedia on anything Chinese related.
So how do you burst a bubble just a little?
What sources do you consider credible then?
Addendum: Did go for a look at the J-9. It seems it was never built. And simulations had its limits pre-1980. And as the J-10 project began in 1985, besides the canard experimentation on J-8's, how much technology was there to transfer?
Last edited by Grand Danois; October 22nd, 2006 at 07:28 PM.
Addendum: Did go for a look at the J-9. It seems it was never built. And simulations had its limits pre-1980. And as the J-10 project began in 1985, besides the canard experimentation on J-8's, how much technology was there to transfer?
hard to say really, the most credible sources when it comes to pla are the pictures, after that it would be the official reports whether it is from xinhua, people's daily or CCTV, interviews with certain pla members (this often appears on Chinese forums), then it would be certain members of Chinese online forums (although this is often disregarded by non-Chinese speakers), following that would be the export news with other countries (for example, kanwa reports on what Russians exported/delivered to China), then whatever China shows in different defense exhibit (for example, we found out the existence of YLC-20). When it comes to pla, even well known sources like kanwa and Janes often mishits when it comes to pla news, so dedicated PLA observer sites like sinodefence and huitong's site are not always accurate and then there are just sites that do nothing but bs.
As for J-9, delta-canard is a big part. Also, another major factor inherited from J-9 is the requirement for high speed performance. imo, the biggest help that Israelis provided Chinese in the J-10 project is probably the help in avionics.
