MOP vs Fordow in Iran

[sgtgunn]

Iran nuclear sites may be beyond reach of "bunker busters" - Yahoo! News

There seems to be quite a bit of debate on the feasability of US or Isreali airstrikes against Iran's hardened nuclear facilities - particulary the one @ Fordow which is suspected to be 60m-80m underground. There are some doubts if the US 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) would be able to penetrate deep enough to destroy the site.

What I'm a little confused about is that the envisioned scenarios all seem to be based around a single strike. I would imagine that if the US wanted those facilities destroyed badly enough, they would supress or destroy the Iranian air defense network sufficiently to allow continous bombing of these hardened sites until they were destroyed. Even if a single strike with MOPs would not work - how about multiple strikes with MOPs (and other ordnance) over the course of several days?

Even if ultimately the facilities cannot be penetrated, if tunnels are buried, airshafts and transportation infastrcuture leading up to the facilities are destroyed, they're ultimately useless.

I would imagine that strikes that fail to completely penetrate and destroy the facilities would still inflict casualties on (or simply entomb) the highly trainined (and probably difficult to replace) engineers, scientists and technicians necessary to run such a place.

The B-2 is the primary delivery platform for the MOP - so the us may not even need to attack the Iranian Air Defense System - would B-2s be able to launch multiple strikes undetected by Iranian radar?

Adrian

[18zulu]

The F117 regularly used two bombs, one beam (laser) on hardened Iraq targets, both above ground and below and that was twenty years ago. Let the Iranians believe they are safe at 80m, even 150 m. Remember the old engineers saying, The right amount explosive at the right place will fix any problem.

[colay]

I'd hate to be in that underground facility if and when a MOP gets dropped on it..

[lucinator]

I'm not 100% sure if the MOP would utterly destroy the base. It might but I'm not a weapons engineer so I'm not 100%. I am certain that it would severely damage all of the centrifuges inside since they are very delicate and even a slight disruption would make then damage themselves or render them inoperable. Also if Israel was really serious about shutting down the facility they would probable put tactical nuclear warheads on their bunker busters.

[Gremlin29]

The site doesn't need to be physically demolished to the point that it is just tiny bits. Destroying a target simply means it has been rendered unusable by the enemy for future operations. It could remain largely intact yet unusable for many years to come, if ever.

General Patton is often quoted saying: "Fixed fortications are monuments to the stupidity of man".

[sgtgunn]

US bunker-buster 'not powerful enough' against Iran - Yahoo! News

Assuming this is true - why would the US leak this info to the press?

Adrian

[Cailet]

Originally Posted by sgtgunn

US bunker-buster 'not powerful enough' against Iran - Yahoo! News

Assuming this is true - why would the US leak this info to the press?

Adrian

Maybe an unwanted leak, maybe an Intelligence ploy, maybe just some bored journalist making stuff up.

I can't see any method of fortification which renders the MOP useless, even if it doesn't physically wreck the laboratories it will still cut them off from the surface which is all you need to do. They could build a Tsar Bomba down there and it would be of no earthly use to Iran if they couldn't deploy it offensively.

[My2Cents]

Originally Posted by Cailet

I can't see any method of fortification which renders the MOP useless, even if it doesn't physically wreck the laboratories it will still cut them off from the surface which is all you need to do.

How about building it under a Mosque or hospital?

Or just build it deep enough by tunneling down into a mountain, as with Cheyenne Mountain, but with several indirect entrances, which may be what Iran has done with their latest.

[TACTICIAN]

Well if the question is if one MOP would do the job, shouldnt we then be asking how many would do the trick??

[My2Cents]

Originally Posted by TACTICIAN

Well if the question is if one MOP would do the job, shouldnt we then be asking how many would do the trick??

Depends a lot on your available intelligence, if you have a bomb that will destroy the target if it detonates within 100m and it goes off 150m away then the bomb is wasted. So you need precise target location data, or a lot of bombs to cover a range of possible locations.

Then there is the question of ‘Did it do the job?’ Bomb damage assessment (BDA) is something that no one has come up with a reliable working solution for, unless you can physically inspect the site. The alternative is, of course, overkill. So you have to double or triple the number of bombs again.

[TACTICIAN]

Originally Posted by My2Cents

Depends a lot on your available intelligence, if you have a bomb that will destroy the target if it detonates within 100m and it goes off 150m away then the bomb is wasted. So you need precise target location data, or a lot of bombs to cover a range of possible locations.

Then there is the question of ‘Did it do the job?’ Bomb damage assessment (BDA) is something that no one has come up with a reliable working solution for, unless you can physically inspect the site. The alternative is, of course, overkill. So you have to double or triple the number of bombs again.

Excellent analysis, I was assuming that yes it was precisely dropped on the intended target. I guess its safe to say that with several MOP's on a direct hit would take it out. Lets just hope our boys get the right intelligence to place these bombs where they need to go. I do believe that if the negotiations fall apart on Tuesday it would be politically advantageous for Obama to order the elimination of the Nuclear Program. Think about it ASB is currently on standby with all military assets awaiting to be activated in the gulf. With overwhelming force in 3 weeks we would be able to engage, destroy the program and neuter the regime. Then we could show our true adversaries like China that our new Doctrine is capable of knocking down the front door. Look at Libya, since it was over before it started the American People did not repudiate the operation. This would be a win win for Obama and our Allies..

[lucinator]

Originally Posted by TACTICIAN

Excellent analysis, I was assuming that yes it was precisely dropped on the intended target. I guess its safe to say that with several MOP's on a direct hit would take it out. Lets just hope our boys get the right intelligence to place these bombs where they need to go. I do believe that if the negotiations fall apart on Tuesday it would be politically advantageous for Obama to order the elimination of the Nuclear Program. Think about it ASB is currently on standby with all military assets awaiting to be activated in the gulf. With overwhelming force in 3 weeks we would be able to engage, destroy the program and neuter the regime. Then we could show our true adversaries like China that our new Doctrine is capable of knocking down the front door. Look at Libya, since it was over before it started the American People did not repudiate the operation. This would be a win win for Obama and our Allies..

Please try to remember that this would be a serious undertaking costing billions of dollars, doing it to just send a message would never happen, this is truly a last resort and Unless the president gets actionable Intel that the program would move into a stage that would not be deterable or destroyable by force I don't think he would commit to any action before the July sanctions timeline. The only other reason he would go in is if Israel takes action first and what they do is anybodies guess.