Japan F-18 Super Super Hornet?

[fretburner]

Boeing willing to let Japan develop New Deriviative of F/A-18

I thought they were pitching the F-15SE to Japan? Try to design or even co-develop the SE version with their customers/partners?

 

[PeterCrisp]

Seems like a good offer to me as the Japanese can take all the best bits of previous versions and add them to an aircraft that matches the requirements they have. Being British I'd love for Japan to choose the Eurofighter but this offer may prove to be the better choice.
I know this is pie in the sky talk given the amounts of money involved but I just hope the best Jet wins whatever that turns out to be and not that they have to choose the 3rd or 4th choice for political reasons.

 

[huskerguy7]

Hopefully this doesn't turn into the F-2 project. The F-2 is based off of the F-16 and costs $110 million USD rather than $30 million USD and offers no significant additional capabilities. It'll be interesting to see how much Japan procures these F/A-18s for.

Japan's defense industry needs reform. The tight standards are preventing cheap and innovative development.

 

[swerve]

The F-2 has an AESA radar (& supposedly, the initial problems with that were fixed), & substantially better range & payload than the F-16 it was based on. And it's a long time since you could get an F-16 for $30 mn.

 

[fretburner]

Any ideas why pitch the Super Hornet instead of the F-15? Could it be that the Super Hornet has a bigger growth potential? Or is it because the baseline fighter is a LOT cheaper?

 

[Bonza]

Any ideas why pitch the Super Hornet instead of the F-15? Could it be that the Super Hornet has a bigger growth potential? Or is it because the baseline fighter is a LOT cheaper?

I guess it would depend on how much development work would have to go in to the Silent Eagle as opposed to a Japanese Super Hornet variant. From what I understand the Silent Eagle would require substantial development, wouldn't it? Block II Super gives you a hell of an aircraft from the word go - and considering the size of the worldwide Super fleet and its remaining service life, I imagine you'd be getting a solid upgrade path as well. I can see how it might sound a bit more attractive than developing and potentially winding up the sole operator of the F-15SE.

This may also figure in to your question about growth potential - while I don't know what the raw growth potential of a Super Hornet would look like compared to a Silent Eagle, I think due to the USN Super fleet there would be well structured management and use of that potential. Happy to stand corrected if I've gotten it wrong, though.

 

[MrConservative]

Any ideas why pitch the Super Hornet instead of the F-15? Could it be that the Super Hornet has a bigger growth potential? Or is it because the baseline fighter is a LOT cheaper?

I'd take the LOT cheaper thanks as I pay tax here for 6 months of the year. The current GDP debt ratio level is hitting 220% and will crack the 250% mark inside of 3 years. This is a serious issue as the new PM Kan (yes the 5th in 5 years) has indicated that it is urgent and if structual changes are not made and made soon, Japan could do a Greece and go belly up. Problem with that is it is too big for the West, World Bank and the IMF to bail out. In the mean time they the Japanese Govt need a robust defence, and the Shornet should be able enough.

 

[swerve]

I'd take the LOT cheaper thanks as I pay tax here for 6 months of the year. The current GDP debt ratio level is hitting 220% and will crack the 250% mark inside of 3 years. ....

Yes, it's a serious issue, but not as crippling as the much lower Greek debt level, because most of that Japanese government debt is domestic, owed to Japanese citizens. Also, that's gross debt, not net. A lot of Japanese gross government debt is intra-government, i.e. money owed by one part of the state to another. Usual practice when citing government debt is to net that out, but the Japanese government doesn't when publicly stating its debt. Net is much lower, half as much - though that's still far too high, about the same as in Italy.

BTW, thanks for helping pay for Mrs Swerves grandparents care home.

 

[MrConservative]

Yes, it's a serious issue, but not as crippling as the much lower Greek debt level, because most of that Japanese government debt is domestic, owed to Japanese citizens. Also, that's gross debt, not net. A lot of Japanese gross government debt is intra-government, i.e. money owed by one part of the state to another. Usual practice when citing government debt is to net that out, but the Japanese government doesn't when publicly stating its debt. Net is much lower, half as much - though that's still far too high, about the same as in Italy.

BTW, thanks for helping pay for Mrs Swerves grandparents care home.

I dont mind doing my bit for Mrs Swerves oji & oba san. Doitashimashte!

As for net debt that is very true though didn't want to digress into the details because once you get into the public finances of Japan, Zaito budgets, debt bonds, BOJ offshore holdings, demographic reversal, dwindling savings rates and the like you find yourself reaching for the Shochu bottle.

Naoto Kan is trying to hit home the point that a major culture shift is required within the bureaucracy and some senior members of the political gerontocracy, that the cash churn game could be up if it continues. I really hope he can at last reverse the decline here. But somehow I think that it is a very long uphill road. Ivé been coming here for years and I'm more than a little concerned.

That said I don't think there is the appetite for another foray into re-engineering US aircraft as they did with the F-2, well not unless the Jimen Party (LDJ) get back in.

 

[swerve]

I dont mind doing my bit for Mrs Swerves oji & oba san. Doitashimashte!.

Probably not for much longer. He's 99 (born in the Meiji era!), & she's almost as old.

 

[MrConservative]

Was he in the Transport Corps? Mrs Conservatives oji-san died a couple of weeks back at 94. He was in the Transport Corps. Nearly all the old timers I meet tell me they drove trucks in the big one! Anyway I hope the old guy makes the ton.

 

[swerve]

No, he was a civilian. He was a telephone engineer. He spent a few years in Singapore, helping to run the phone network, & buying Chinese antiques* at knock-down prices with overvalued occupation currency. Mrs S calls it 'looting' - but not to his face.

That's her mothers parents. Her other grandfather was a bit old for the war, but his oldest son (Mrs S's uncle) is remembered at Yasukuni. He was a pilot, qualified early 1945 for a one-way flight.

*He gave me a vase several years ago. Maybe I should get it valued.

I suppose we should get back on topic, but I can't think of anything to say about it at the moment.

 

[fretburner]

Could this be a the framework for the Super Super Hornet? Super Hornet "International"

I don't think Boeing has said anything about a Block III Super Hornet, but this looks badass! Looking at the current SH (pictured here), it seems like it's got a CFT just like the Blk 60 F-16s...and, it's got a centerline weapons pod! I think this is the first Aircraft to have one since the F-4 Phantom carrying a machine gun pod in the Vietnam war. I'm not sure if I'm a fan of the weapons pod though -- I think it's going to give this fighter a LOT of drag? Not sure if upgraded engines will keep this fighter's performance at par with the current Blk 2 withOUT the weapons pod.

Still... it's pretty cool.

 

[Bonza]

That's interesting, was only a matter of time I guess - it seems like Boeing is doing everything in their power to keep their aircraft competitive with the next generation of fighters. They really made the most out of their failed bid for the JSF program considering quite a bit of the technology from the Block II Super Hornet was originally developed for the X-32 (not sure as to the extent, but was told this by an RAAF pilot at Avalon). I imagine they've made some serious cash out of the Block II, and it'll be interesting to see how far this variant goes, assuming it's developed.

Things like this are part of the reason I think the Super Hornet is going to do well in the next few years - for those air forces that aren't moving to the F-35, a multi-role fighter with a large existing user base and some momentum behind development options must look quite appealing.

 

[Scorpion82]

Boeing is betting on two racing horses for Japan since quite some time now. The F/A-18E/F is included as well as the F-15FX which is probably the F-15SE or a derivative of it. It's certainly not the worst they can do to increase their chances.

 

[fretburner]

I think it's great for Boeing and for potential customers who aren't going for the F-35 -- they have more platforms to choose from. Customers with more $$$ and wanting a heavier fighter can get the F-15SE, while those who are a little cash-strapped can go with the Super Hornet "International". Either way, they get a very capable platform with proven track record, which can be "retrofitted" to the older versions, i.e. Blk2 SH.

 

[fretburner]

I guess this is the end of the "Super Super Hornet?

Japan stealth jet prototype set to fly in 2014

Everybody's nervous with the Russian and Chinese stealth prototypes.

 

[MrConservative]

I guess this is the end of the "Super Super Hornet?

Japan stealth jet prototype set to fly in 2014

Everybody's nervous with the Russian and Chinese stealth prototypes.

If the AJF eventually gets the green light from the Diet in 2016 it will still be years before it will be operational. The legacy aircraft need replacing soon - so Shornets are still on the cards along with other options. The fact that things have gone quiet means something is about to be hatched to take care of those lovely old F-4's.

My view is that even though Japan could technically pull this AJF off - is it fiscally possible in the context of the economic outlook for this decade and beyond?

To actually make the Japanese Defence industry sustainable over the long term they are going to have to address Article 9 to allow exports of their local defence industry. The JASDF spokesperson may quote thousands of new jobs and 8 trillion yen projects to gain Diet members attention - but with stuff-all pork left in the Tokyo porkbarrel to give such blueskies stuff as the AJF any chance of being viable they are going to have to allow P-1's and C-2's to be exported. In many ways I think Japan has to amend Article 9 because defence as an industry has transformative economic potential. It is the one area of industrial capacity that has been underwhelmed because of politics. That said their seems to be little appetite for spending vast amounts of yen into job creation schemes that dont actually achieve a revenue positive position compared to even the recent past.

 

[fretburner]

If the AJF eventually gets the green light from the Diet in 2016 it will still be years before it will be operational. The legacy aircraft need replacing soon - so Shornets are still on the cards along with other options. The fact that things have gone quiet means something is about to be hatched to take care of those lovely old F-4's.

But a Super Super Hornet would require some significant investments, versus say an F-15SE or a more advanced variant of the already available F-15SG. If they're really pursuing their own 5th Gen fighter, then they'd probably be better off focusing on developing that AC rather than spending a lot of time and money on co-developing a Super Super Hornet. I believe the F-15SE is being developed using Boeing's own money?

 

[Cailet]

Depends quite how 'super' the development is. If it turns out to be a F-18E/F/G with CFT's and upgraded avionics (AESA et cetera) then that would probably be a relatively short and inexpensive development cycle for a top-of-the-line combat aircraft.

F-15SE always struck me as an attempt to turn the F-15 into something it was never meant to be considering much of it's mission profile and capabilities are covered by the Super Hornet. It may have the edge in kinetic performance (climb rate, max speed) but Japan has F-15 already to offer that level of performance and I'm not sure the SE would justify it's cost as a replacement, especially with more advanced aircraft in the pipeline.

Unless I've misunderstood the SE (and I may well have done) it just seems too much like a solution looking for a problem and with only a very short time to find one as anyone to whom the SE is an attractive and available prospect is likely also able to acquire the F-35A at some point not too far down the line (and if they can't get in on the F-35 party, Saab, MiG, Eurofighter etc will be happy to oblige and the US would probably have forbidden SE anyway).