Razor said:
I think your narrow view on fighter aircraft acquisitions as a single issue of cost/performance is just not right here.
I'll start with this, because you seem to be misunderstanding me. Look again at my post, I mentioned cost/performance, running costs, maintenance costs, political issues, offsets, existing equipment and so on as being
important to various buyers in various contexts. Nowhere did I imply that the cost/performance is the single issue when buying aircraft, quite the opposite.
Okay, now for the specifics (I re-orderd a few of your points for clarity).
Razor said:
Just about everyone in Hungary who read the papers in September 2001 knows that Gripens were selected for the offset and against the proposal of the Ministry of Defence.
According to what I've read, the US offer to Hungary was about the same in value as the Swedish offer, but I don't have numbers. I don't read the Hungarian papers, but 'just about everyone' in Poland who read the papers knows that the pilots and MoD prefered the Gripen, morever the Gripen deal was almost signed at one point. But this is all hearsay. The real fact is, the political and offset issues
greatly complicate the issue; nonetheless the Gripen
as an aircraft is a serious contender and a viable option, both because of its capabilities and its relatively low costs. It this were not the case then no one would buy it.
Razor said:
Actual cost of the aircraft was very important in Hungary, that was the reason why suddenly not 24 but 14 aircraft was asked for. Not defence considerations, but financial considerations.
Doesn't that suggest that the Gripen was, in fact, selected because it was more cost-effective, which was the point of this discussion?
Razor said:
Sweden does not operate 200 Gripens - they ordered them but do not use them.
I said that Sweden had 200 Gripens to contrast them with the 14 bought by the Czechs etc., since you were asking for a definition of a 'small' airforce. Even allowing for the fact that they will downsize to 100 operational Gripens, that is still several times as many as the Czechs.
Razor said:
Gripen was designed to operate in Sweden against Soviet (and Western) threats. No export was envisioned at that time.
Sweden is a small country. The population is about 9 million against 10 million or so in Hungary, moreover with a vastly bigger area, which makes infrastructure a problem. So, granted, I should have said 'designed for use in a small
country' (singular), but either way the same properties required by the Swedish AF also make it a desirable option for other small countries. To quote the CEO of Gripen International (in the context of Gripens for Brazil):
McNamee: One thing people seem to forget is that Gripen was designed to operate in areas without any infrastructure. Gripen can land in roads and remote areas. Its complete refueling on the ground takes about 15 minutes. Gripen is an aircraft that does not need air bases and major infrastructure. It was developed to undertake operations with maximum efficiency.
Razor said:
Yes, the US government realized that if it does not provide more support to foreign sales, as e.g. the Swedish government does, their products will continue losing because offset is so important nowadays in defense contracts.
Rubbish. The US government has
always provided significant support for foreign sales (at least to countries it likes), usually in the form of credit. Look up the 'Foreign Military Sales' program, it is why there are so many F-16s out there today. The US can (and does) give
enormous support when it wants to. Why do you think Israel has so much US equipment? The US pretty much gives it to them. SAAB partnered with BAe when it wanted to export the Gripen in order to give itself a stronger negotiating position, and even then it wasn't enough in the Polish case.
Razor said:
The Gripen consortium could not match the fighter capabilities, not the offset, look at South Africa, please.
Please explain. Could not match what fighter capabilities? As for South Africa, I'm sure they would not have bought it if it didn't fit their requirements. They're not stupid, and they have some very good aircraft (look at the Atlas Cheetah). Yes, they got a good offset deal. They also got an effective, reliable, low running cost and low maintenance aircraft (to summarise official statements), which is what they wanted.
Razor said:
I do not think these figures are comparable, or meaningful at all.
...
The Czechs (just as Hungarians) did not have the slightest idea how much operating the airframes in their country will cost. Of course, they may have had projections.
I'm sure their 'projections' were a
lot more precise than you imagine. You do
not buy several multi-million dollar aircraft with expected lifespans of 15-20 years and similar-length contracts without working that sort of thing out. The question is, which aircraft is cheaper for the
same user using the aircraft in the
same way, not for different users or usage patterns.
Razor said:
Just when and where did this happen? Chile? Greece? Far East?
Only Chile is a valid comparison, and it has strong ties to the US (including military financing through the FMF program). Greece and all the Far Eastern countries were prior F-16 operators, who got their first F-16s in the late '80s/early '90s before the Gripen was offered for export. The interesting choice to watch now will be Brazil, which is much less strongly tied to the US.
Razor said:
But what about wars and combats and close air support, etc...? A versatile fighter with a higher price tag may be more justified for countries where capabilities do count on a day-to-day level. If you only count your money, why buy in the first place?
...
I think you should broaden your sights a bit: look at aircraft capabilities and proven track record. These may also be important for some air forces, do not you agree?
Very few armed forces can buy any hardware they want; even the US has difficulties sometimes because of budgets. Price/performance is always one of the variables sometimes it is more important, sometimes less.
Of course a more versatile fighter with a higher price tag may be more justified for some countries, but by the same token a less versatile but adequate-for-the-job and cheaper fighter will be better for others. Moreover, if you can buy or run a plane more cheaply, you can maybe buy more of them, or spend the money on something else. The Gripen in an excellent defence fighter, with good capability in other areas. Its capabilities have been tested in exercises. It has not seen combat, but then neither has the Eurofighter. While the Czechs and the Hungarians may have compromised, I'm sure the South Africans were quite careful in their choice. They are the regional power, and their track record on aircraft and combat is impressive enough.
If it is enough to fill its mission, then why buy a more expensive aircraft?
Razor said:
These are two-engine aircraft, quite dissimilar to single engines. JSF participation just does not exlude F-16 purchase/lease (Italy, Israel, Turkey); on the contrary, F-16s are a fine path to the Lightning II.
I'm confused, what is your point? The discussion was about the Gripen being a suitable aircraft for small(er) airforces with constrained budgets, as mentioned by Whiskyjack and others, and which you seemed to disagree with. These are not countries which can afford Eurofighter or JSF, or even Hornet. These are also not countries which generally need to conduct large military operations (except for SA). They need a capable, reliable and cost-effective aircraft primarily for air defence, whith some strike capability, and the Gripen fits that bill. So does the F-16, and some countries buy it, particularly if they have F-16 already. Countries which can afford Eurofighter, JSF etc. (and need them) buy them (the UK for example), but they have never been in the market for Gripen (or F-16, except as a stop-gap).