French defense ministry cuts Rafale fighter jet orders

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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02/02/2004 at 09:24:16



Date line: PARIS
The French defense ministry is to purchase 11 fewer Rafale fighter jets than originally planned in its 2003-08 budget, financial daily Les Echos said on Monday.

Dassault Aviation will supply five Rafales this year and 10 in 2005 as scheduled.

But starting in 2006 it will furnish 17 jets instead of 19 and 16 rather than 20 in 2007. In 2008 the company will deliver 17 instead of 22 planes, according to Les Echos.

The reductions will enable the government to save 550 million eurosmillion dollars), according to the paper.

A Dassault spokesman told AFP the company was awaiting a government decision on the matter.



The French govt must be getting a little desperate at the lack of success of these planes. The last hope for a major foreign sale is considered to be Singapore. If this doesn't occur with the Singaporean NFR Programme, then the Rafale will become a huge orphaned system.
 
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Aussie Digger

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I reckon the price of the Rafale must be hurting it's international sales. Another problem could be is that most international users of this plane would operate it in conjunction with other fighters, Singapoer for example, is intending their new fighter to replace their A-4SU Superhawks, and F-5's and to work alongside it's existing F-16 squadrons. If they were to opt for Rafale, they would have a completely different logistical system to maintain alongside their existing system. In addition, they would have to acquire a completely different weapons system (air to air missiles, air to ground ordance etc) which is not integrated on their main fighter (F-16 Block 40). This would incur massive through life expenses and could lead to some strategic vulnerability if you had half your fighter force unable to operate due to the lack of re-supply of weapons, something which France has a bad reputation for... In Singapore's geographical area, they have had disputes with Malaysia, most notably. If this were to deteriorate and a shooting war occurred Singapore could find itself denied weapons re-supply by France (given that France has supplied Malaysia with systems in the past). I doubt the US would deny Singapore weapons and parts if it were involved in a shooting war with Malaysia.
 

gf0012-aust

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Aussie Digger said:
I reckon the price of the Rafale must be hurting it's international sales. Another problem could be is that most international users of this plane would operate it in conjunction with other fighters, Singapoer for example, is intending their new fighter to replace their A-4SU Superhawks, and F-5's and to work alongside it's existing F-16 squadrons. If they were to opt for Rafale, they would have a completely different logistical system to maintain alongside their existing system. In addition, they would have to acquire a completely different weapons system (air to air missiles, air to ground ordance etc) which is not integrated on their main fighter (F-16 Block 40). This would incur massive through life expenses and could lead to some strategic vulnerability if you had half your fighter force unable to operate due to the lack of re-supply of weapons, something which France has a bad reputation for... In Singapore's geographical area, they have had disputes with Malaysia, most notably. If this were to deteriorate and a shooting war occurred Singapore could find itself denied weapons re-supply by France (given that France has supplied Malaysia with systems in the past). I doubt the US would deny Singapore weapons and parts if it were involved in a shooting war with Malaysia.
The main thing I see is Singapore's force mix. It is going for a Hi-Lo mix where the NFR will replace the A4's and F5's, but in a real sense becomes the Hi element to work in conjunction with the F16's

When the JSF comes online, the NFR will take on the Lo mix of that ORBAT, thus replacing the F16 altogether. The HiLo then becomes JSF/NFR

The Rafale does not take all of its existing weapons stocks either, so there are significant mounting and porting problems that will need to be dealt with. Rewriting 6 million lines of code may be very unattrative to Singapore and assumes that the French will provide unfettered access to source code - something that they habitually haven't done in the past.

Singapore does have a preference for US air launched missiles, and they have had access to chinese/russian solutions. So I can't see them at this stage taking on a more complicated logistics stream.

The carrot is that the French Gov is offering co-development on blue sky technologies - but that would then cut Singapore out of some other developments. In particular the US may turn off access to JSF technology streams. There is not a lot of love lost between France and NATO and the US - especially when some French AF officers were incriminated in feeding Serbian Air Force officers with strategic info regarding NATO flight ops, and some critical info on Bosnian Muslim gun emplacements.

IMHO this is really quite messy even though it appears to be a simple buy and sell. To some extent that have sabotaged offshore purchases themselves.

The EF2000 and the F15 counter offers are just as suitable. But Boeing are not demonstrating any flexibility on price breaks (apparently).

Personally I like the Rafale, but the EF2000 is probably a safer bet, the F15 is not as flexible in dog fighting (which is a non event in an integrated C4i/SEADs/EW/AWACs BVR created environment), but it is a longer range bomb truck.
 
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Aussie Digger

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I too think it will come down to Eurofighter or F15E/K. Singapore would obviously please the US by buying the F-15 and would therefore probably expect more of a workshare and possibly technology transfer in relation to JSF, but the F-15 might not be the most capable option. Tranche 3 Eurofighters in the numbers Singaporeis planning to buy (20 at first with 20+ later on) plus their existing late model F-16's and Hawkeye AWACS aircraft, would ensure Singapore's regional Air power supremacy. Even Malaysia's proposed FA18E/F and SU30MKI fleet wouldn't match them. Even Australia's 71 upgraded FA-18's would look quite pedestrian next to Singapore's fleet, yet the Australian government doesn't seem overly concerned by this... Whatever happened to our policy of over-matching any nation in our region qualitatively AND numerically?
 

gf0012-aust

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Aussie Digger said:
I too think it will come down to Eurofighter or F15E/K. Singapore would obviously please the US by buying the F-15 and would therefore probably expect more of a workshare and possibly technology transfer in relation to JSF, but the F-15 might not be the most capable option. Tranche 3 Eurofighters in the numbers Singaporeis planning to buy (20 at first with 20+ later on) plus their existing late model F-16's and Hawkeye AWACS aircraft, would ensure Singapore's regional Air power supremacy. Even Malaysia's proposed FA18E/F and SU30MKI fleet wouldn't match them. Even Australia's 71 upgraded FA-18's would look quite pedestrian next to Singapore's fleet, yet the Australian government doesn't seem overly concerned by this... Whatever happened to our policy of over-matching any nation in our region qualitatively AND numerically?
The RAAF has not been worried about the mismatch between the F/A18's and the Su30MKI fleet due to other force elements in our ORBAT mix.

If you focus on the plane (eg Hornet) then clearly the Su30MKI will outfly it.
The factoring in of incoming radar systems, JORN, Wedgetail AWACs (which is known to have approx 2 x the range of the IL-76 based solutions), missile packages etc has meant that not a lot of people are losing sleep about a superiority threat.

That will escalate to another level of capability when JSF comes in.
Unless we went to war overnight, then we have suficient lead time to actually take all of our combat elelements into a superior technology fit. As it stands, we don't see a threat with any of our neighbours except for a somewhat fractious relationship with Indonesia - and that has been so for 40 years, even though we still give them foreign aide packages, military equipment, civilian support in govt and policing etc... Sometimes I question why we would give them $1 billion in aide (financial meltdown period) when they want to take periodic swings at us, far different from the Thais who just saw us as being neighbourly etc... - but such is life. At least its getting better.

But, on the Su30x, it's v difficult if not impossible for it to get a 0 Doppler for more than 1 direction, and still "fly". A Hornet controlled by a Wedgetail AWACs, will still have target data through the AWACS, and would be able to fire an AMRAAM. Fit the Bug with AESA and the tables change dramatically.

All of the simulations I know of don't rate the Su-30MKI as highly as previously thought. The oft touted Su30MKI vs F15c comparison is no longer relevant as an indicator.

In a shooting war where both sides had AWACs, we know that we have double the intercept and lag range over any current Russian/Chinese IL-76 style/based system. So we have a minimum 150-200km edge already. Unless the opfor is using a hypersonic we have the upperhand. (and lets remember that we are the only nation to have tested a successful scramjet missile solution, so we have latent development capability if we need to convert that technology into an ALI). Even if they did have a hypersonic we have a probable max window of 150-250k's to get out of Dodge - not that difficult using the approp altitude and supercruise capability of the Bug.

Remember that JORN is able to see way beyond its declared 3000k range, so we can literally run as South East Asia's regional air traffic controller if need be - Although it was a weather assisted anomally, JORN was allegedly able to pick up USAF stealth aircraft over Bagdhad in 99. Generally (weather permitting) we can see planes taking off from airports within 3000-3500 k's of the search sweep. So we definitely know when aircraft are taking off and heading towards us.

So, nominally we haven't lost an edge. On the principle platform - yes, on the integrated capability - definitely no.

When you combine JORN, HUG Hornets, Tankers, Wedgetail AWACs (arriving this year), EP-3c Aries ELINT/SIGINT Orions, AP-3c Orions, data linked GlobalHawks, the existing Spy Satellites + the singaporean/australian spy satellite development, and the approp platform weapons loadouts, then the next airforce that has a closer capability is Singapore. (with whom we are co-members with Malaysia, UK and NZ in the 5 Powers Agreement)

Indonesia is not in a position to launch any effective strikes against the mainland (assuming that they had an overnight change in Govt who was overtly hostile to Australia) I can't see that happening in the short term. Also, historically Indonesias maintenance capability and current spares holdings management for the "sharp end of the spear" has left a lot to be desired. You can't just suddenly develop an efficient and self primed logistics system, that still is a weakness in their capability.

Finally, their ORBAT is not geared for force on force confrontation. They are in a sense one of the largest para military police forces in the world.

As much as we may grumble and growl at each other as we evolve into a more harmonious relationship, we don't have an overwhelming desire to shoot at each other.. ;)
 
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Aussie Digger

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As you guessed, I was merely comparing the FA-18 platform against regional air force platforms. I'm not worried about Australia's air combat capability, I'm concerned that others might catch up. Yes ours will improve with the soon to arrive Wedgetail (although there are no signs that any more than 4 will be acquired, thus limiting our ability to conduct concurrent operations). In addition our 4 or 5 air to air refuellers are going to be hard pressed supporting our entire AWACS and FA-18 fleet. Despite what Mr HILL says, I fail to see how or air combat capability can be maintained by retiring 35 of the Air Combat groups strike aircraft. Using the FA-18 solely for Strike operations in addition to it's normal role, will reduce the number of FA-18's available for Air defence operations. IF Indonesia were to acquire the planned total of 48 SU-30MKI Sukhoi's, then our FA-18 Fleet would be hard pressed to match this fleet for air to air combat duties AND provide sufficient aircraft for the strike role. The F-111 in it's strike role was what allowed us to overmatch any nation in our region. Most nations would be so busy trying to defend itself against this aircraft that they wouldn't attack us. THAT was the basic strategy. I doubt the upgraded FA-18 even with JASSM will be viewed in the same light, given the number of tasks it's now required to perform...
 

gf0012-aust

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Thread Hijack

I think I've gone and hijacked my own thread. ;) Aussie Digger do you want to start a sep thread on Aust ORBAT assessment (or similar) and then I'll see if I can get Web to graft the prev 3 posts over.

cheers. gf
 
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