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The F-16 replacement of the Royal Netherlands Airforce.

This is a discussion on The F-16 replacement of the Royal Netherlands Airforce. within the Air Force & Aviation forum, part of the Global Defense & Military category; I need you opinions on this. We currently own 86 F-16's that need to be replaced. The MoD's favourite is ...


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Old November 20th, 2009   #1
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The F-16 replacement of the Royal Netherlands Airforce.

I need you opinions on this.

We currently own 86 F-16's that need to be replaced.
The MoD's favourite is 85 F-35A's but it is getting clear that we are not able to affor 85 units, it has leaked that we will onlky be able to buy and operate 55 planes and that while we might be able to buy the other planes we will not be able to operate them.
The F-35 budget was around 6 billion for the purchase and 10 for 30 years of service.
SAAB offered their Gripen NG at 5 + 5 billion BTW.

So what do you people think that's the best solution?
Feel free to suggest more then 1 type.
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Dutch Army, my views. Army & Security Forces IPA35 10 896 November 30th, 2009 05:51 PM
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Old November 21st, 2009   #2
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You guys are second tie partner in the project, so i can't see you picking someting els. and i strongly believe the competetion is only there because it needs to be. so its really no reason to debate it! I do have my personal opinion on the matter and which platform that suits you best. but thats another story. F-35 will be your new platform
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Old November 21st, 2009   #3
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Hhmmm, it is not yet decided and the F-35 is getting more and more negative media attention over here.

But what do we want to do with 40 aircraft?!
Equip 2 squadrons, close an AFB and place some in the US for training?

Let's say we want a 1 on 1 replacement of the F-16, as planned.
What's you opinion?
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #4
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Unfortunately, the safety umbrella of ol' Uncle Sam does not come cheap these days.
The Netherlands have to pay its part by participating in the F-35 project and then
maintain as many of the bombers as possible.
In the worst case scenario, (where the Bear wakes up in a foul mood), the F-22s will
clear the skies for you, and then all of NATOs F-35s will go on deep strike missions
carrying tactical nukes.
I can't see any other risk assessments for Netherlands, why do you need an air force anyway ?
Are those naughty Belgians arming up again ?
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #5
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Ahhh the unsubstantiated "JSF is a bomber" myth once more.

The very abridged answer to your question is the ability to escalate - this will make a country like Russia - or other believers in hard security hesitate.
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #6
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No, the Belgians are currently destroying their military...
We should not follow their path.

40 planes is far too few

We could buy like 2 squadrons of F-35's but we would still need 85 planes so we would have to buy something else...

IMO
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #7
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First post on this interesting board.

As for the Dutch and the JSF, I think that Jack de vries and the entire Netherlands Air forces are pretty much deathset in going for the JSF.
Even 56 will be hard for the NLAF to maintain, they"ll probably get the numbers but will budget yearly flying hours for 48 frames or so.

It is very likely that the Dutch will once again be flying 2 frontline fighter types (as they did in the F104/F5 years) with a number of the lowest hour F16 frames going through a second type of MLU update ,probably with the LM option of doubling framelife from 4000 to 8000hrs, which will keep them up and running until atleast 2030 or 2035.
48 JSF + 8 factual reserve together with 24 or 36 F-16's will still be a very potent force and will give the Air Force the option of budgetting for extra/newer JSF's 15 to 20 years from now.

It's probably not the politicians that are going to kill the dream of owning 86 JSF from the start but more likely the other forces who just won't put up with it.
The ARMY and NAVY are both very opposed to the JSF and the effects it will have in the following years on the budget and with the current Chief of Staff they have a very strong allie on their sides.

the only thing wich for now seems to play in favor of the JSF is the dollar-Euro value now
First Joint Strike Fighter Test Aircraft Cheaper
Quote:
First Joint Strike Fighter Test Aircraft Cheaper


(Source: Netherlands Ministry of Defense, issued November 19, 2009)



The first F-35 (JSF) test aircraft [for the Netherlands] is 13.5 million euros cheaper than anticipated, because the current value of the dollar is lower than the budgeted rate, State Secretary Jack De Vries reported today in a letter to the House.
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #8
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I actually calculated the Japanese offer...
The said 9 billion yen for 40 planes, that like 68 million euro's each.
Now that's pretty impossible...


I'd rather see 2 squadrons of the JSF and 3 of the Gripen NG, the F-16 ARE getting too old.
And the Gripen is better and heaper to operate then the F-16 block 60.
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IPA35 View Post
I actually calculated the Japanese offer...
The said 9 billion yen for 40 planes, that like 68 million euro's each.
Now that's pretty impossible...
Not when you include through life support, weapons, training and spares (which has to be budgeted for. To put it in perspective the RAAF has purchased 24 F/A-18F's and budgeted $6 billion AUD, but the actually cost of the platforms was $2.7 Billion AUD. The rest is through life support.


Quote:
And the Gripen is better then the F-16 block 60.
Really? How so? AFAIK the block 60 out performs the Gripen in almost every PI, INCLUDING cost.
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Old November 23rd, 2009   #10
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I meant the NG.
I read somewhere F-16 costs like 3600$ per flight hour and a Gripen NG 2500$.
But please correct me, if it is true new F-16's could complement the small number of F-35's.
Prehaps less conversion training would be needed since already own F-16's.
(AFAIK all are block 20 MLU's.)
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Old November 24th, 2009   #11
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I didnt even think about a two type solution. But it sounds pretty good. To bad we sold our good F-16's, but it sounds like a realistic solution.

However, i'd rather see a 1 type solution with another plane. Maybe gripen, but atleast something with some decent ofsets for industry. But we in the NL seem to be allergic to support our own economy and rather sell anything off to some fat Yanks or crazy Germans who strip it and sell it. Thats the new poldermodel.

But none of this is going to happen. I think the KLU should be happy if they receive one squadron in the end. The surrender monkey's on the left rather see no armed forces at all and spend it all on invalids and eastern europeans who come here to get some welfare!

oh and the airforce had already decided to buy the F-35 before the Americans even thought of it. They're just sluts for american materiel.

[quote]'s probably not the politicians that are going to kill the dream of owning 86 JSF from the start but more likely the other forces who just won't put up with it.
The ARMY and NAVY are both very opposed to the JSF and the effects it will have in the following years on the budget and with the current Chief of Staff they have a very strong allie on their sides.[/quote}

could you explain some more about the politics behind the scene's ?

grtz Rob
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Old November 24th, 2009   #12
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AFAIK we kept the F-16's with the lowest flight hours (block 20's only?).

We now all know that there are no funds to operate 85 F-35's (JSFNieuws/Reporter doco).
I agree the politicians are incompetent pacifists, although not all your agruments are valid
Sooner or later they'll probably tell us we an't afford a military and they'll create a EU military

I really like the Gripen for it's STOL capabilities, including the way the Swedes operate these planes.
(land on road, refuel, rearm...)
That gives it the edge over the block 60 to me, unless we take the F-35B, but that's very unlikely and expensive.


People always tell me two types is too expensive, but let's face it, it's far cheaper then operating 85 F-35A's...
And only the Gripen NG might not be capabel enough for all types of missions.
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Old November 24th, 2009   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toptob View Post
Quote:
's probably not the politicians that are going to kill the dream of owning 86 JSF from the start but more likely the other forces who just won't put up with it.
The ARMY and NAVY are both very opposed to the JSF and the effects it will have in the following years on the budget and with the current Chief of Staff they have a very strong allie on their sides.
could you explain some more about the politics behind the scene's ?

grtz Rob
Just like in most other Armed Forces there exists an everlasting , yearly returning, fight about the division of funds for the procurement of new or more weapon-systems and others.
IIRC in most NATO countries about 15-20% of the DoD budget goes to purchases, in this case the Air Forces of the NLu need a disproportionate percentage to fund the new fighter, be it JSF or whatever else.
This obviously will cut deeply in the available budget and will leave the NAVY and ARMY postponing or altogether abandoning plans for their own new weapon systems which might be equally necessary

Also there is a big conflict between the Air Force and the NAVY, both use big and very unit-expensive weapon-systems, the AF these days relies heavily on foreign (read US) manufacturers and in a lesser degree on Dutch suppliers:partners in the JSF projects while the NAVY basically has to support an almost entirely internal Dutch military shipbuilder economy.
Political pressure to favor the Navy will be all the bigger for it.

Getting their dream of 86 JSF's from the start will proof to be impossible, that's why they are willing to put up with a very slow rate of writing of the old and trusted F16, which ,with the necessary upgrades, could very well do part of the job for 25-30 more years.
Effectively giving a 2 type fighter air force for the next decades.

Their is also another big reason and it is a purely practical one.
The JSF (as the F22 before) is an exclusive 1 seater, this means that many training missions will have to be flown with 1 or more extra planes (for the instructor - senior pilot).
This can be problematic for little air forces (like most European ones are in comparison with the US).

Eg, IIRC in the early 2000's we had 10860 total yearly flying hours on the F16 fleet in Kleine Brogel (Tiger squadron).
It is absolutely vital to use these hours as efficiently as possible and to make every single one count.
Young or low hour pilots need a lot of training and therefore we need the F16B actually more than the A-type.
EG; If you fly to the gun range and have to do a 15° nose down 1000kph Vulcan cannon gun-run for the first time you need an instructor in the back as a backup.
In case of the F35 you need at least another instructor following and shadowing you all the way through the run.

Many times a two seater adds to the efficient use of allocated flying time and more specifically training and instructor time (which if the hours are all used up in October or so will lead to the fleet being grounded for the rest of the fiscal year)

This is a serious handicap in the JSF (and F22) which can partly be overcome by newer , more modern simulators but ultimately actual flying hours remain critical.
Even the USAF keeps its newest jets on the same base as their older F15's or F16's to overcome this shortfall.

Quote:
I really like the Gripen for it's STOL capabilities, including the way the Swedes operate these planes.
(land on road, refuel, rearm...)
That gives it the edge over the block 60 to me, unless we take the F-35B, but that's very unlikely and expensive.
Most of these nifty features like the ability to TO+Land on short improvised runways can also be done by the F16 if the need arises, however it is not a good enough reason to go for the Gripen.
these abilities are virtually useless for the Dutch.
The "low hours F16's" can be upgraded (higher hours airframe ,better radar and CFT if the need exists) so much so that the Gripen would only be equally capable with the modernised F16 at best.

One of the best reasons Air Forces all over the world go for US equipment is the knowledge that
the US aviation defense industry is committed to constantly upgrade almost every system on active airframes.
That's why US 30+ years old designs still are at the top when it comes to combat effectiveness , level of technology and cost efficiency of use.

A shrill contrast with older European systems that where outright innovative at their time of conception but gradually lost their edge due to the inefficient follow up programs (Jaguar/Tornado/F1/....).

I hope these days us Europeans realize that when we've made the choice to field something as big and important as a new fighter plane we have to stick with it over its entire lifespan, constantly improving upon the design.
Saab seems to have understood this vital lesson.
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Old November 24th, 2009   #14
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Unfortunately, the safety umbrella of ol' Uncle Sam does not come cheap these days.
The Netherlands have to pay its part by participating in the F-35 project and then
maintain as many of the bombers as possible.
In the worst case scenario, (where the Bear wakes up in a foul mood), the F-22s will
clear the skies for you, and then all of NATOs F-35s will go on deep strike missions
carrying tactical nukes.
I can't see any other risk assessments for Netherlands, why do you need an air force anyway ?
Are those naughty Belgians arming up again ?
The F-35 is no more a bomber than the Eurofighter Typhoon, Gripen, Rafale, Super Hornet or even SU-30 is.

It is a multi-role fighter aircraft.
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Old November 25th, 2009   #15
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It's a jack-of-all-trades. Jacks usually do all things reasonable well, but they do not outperform dedicated experts.
It's a compromise where the highest priority have been given to low frontal observation from ground based radar.
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