The End of MiGs?

[Feanor]

It's no secret that the Russian defense industry has been through hard times recently. Many tank, munitions, APC/IFV, artillery, and other factories have closed. However recently trends have begun to reverse slowly. With new defense orders and more foreign contracts the Russian defense industry has begun to recover. The major exception seems to be the MiG Corporation. It's 5th gen. LFI project was not chosen for the VVS, and India also prefered to latch onto the PAK-FA instead of the LFI. Most foreign countries preferred to buy Su-30MK variants. The Algerian contract, which seemed to be a relatively major success, is now on the verge of cancellation as Algeria has returned the fighters to Russia over quality complaints. Meanwhile the delivery of Su-30MKA to Algeria is continuing as normal. Morever the MiG-29 and MiG-31 are the only MiG aircraft (with the exception of a few Foxbats retained as EW platforms) left flying in the Russian airforce. Meanwhile Sukhoi is continuing to receive modernization contracts for it's Su-24 and Su-27 aircraft, has begun serial production of the new Su-34 Fullback tactical bomber, and is designing upgrades for the Su-25 ground-attack aircraft also currently in service. This is in addition to the fact that it's in charge of the only active 5th generation aircraft design. It has also won a huge number of export contracts over the recent decade (China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Algeria, Venezuela....). MiG corporation is indeed down on hard times. It's current portfolio includes very few major contracts. Among them are a few modernization contracts for East European airforces, an order of 5 MiG-29's by Sri Lanka, and the MiG-29K contract with India which hinges of the Admiral Gorshkov deal which is currently being renegotiated. The biggest potential plus is the 126 light fighter tender in which it entered the new MiG-35.

I've been watching these trends with some alarm. Could this really signal the end of MiG?

 

[aaaditya]

It's no secret that the Russian defense industry has been through hard times recently. Many tank, munitions, APC/IFV, artillery, and other factories have closed. However recently trends have begun to reverse slowly. With new defense orders and more foreign contracts the Russian defense industry has begun to recover. The major exception seems to be the MiG Corporation. It's 5th gen. LFI project was not chosen for the VVS, and India also prefered to latch onto the PAK-FA instead of the LFI. Most foreign countries preferred to buy Su-30MK variants. The Algerian contract, which seemed to be a relatively major success, is now on the verge of cancellation as Algeria has returned the fighters to Russia over quality complaints. Meanwhile the delivery of Su-30MKA to Algeria is continuing as normal. Morever the MiG-29 and MiG-31 are the only MiG aircraft (with the exception of a few Foxbats retained as EW platforms) left flying in the Russian airforce. Meanwhile Sukhoi is continuing to receive modernization contracts for it's Su-24 and Su-27 aircraft, has begun serial production of the new Su-34 Fullback tactical bomber, and is designing upgrades for the Su-25 ground-attack aircraft also currently in service. This is in addition to the fact that it's in charge of the only active 5th generation aircraft design. It has also won a huge number of export contracts over the recent decade (China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Algeria, Venezuela....). MiG corporation is indeed down on hard times. It's current portfolio includes very few major contracts. Among them are a few modernization contracts for East European airforces, an order of 5 MiG-29's by Sri Lanka, and the MiG-29K contract with India which hinges of the Admiral Gorshkov deal which is currently being renegotiated. The biggest potential plus is the 126 light fighter tender in which it entered the new MiG-35.

I've been watching these trends with some alarm. Could this really signal the end of MiG?

much depends on mig winning the indian mrca deal,if mig35 loses,then mig would have lost one of its largest and most devoted customers.iam sure they will pull out all stops (both diplomatic and technological) to win this deal.while losing this deal may not finish mig,it will definitely push it back in the market.

 

[ROCK45]

Help a little

I've seen this before and still not really sure it's a sign deal but if it is it should help. Another thing that might help would be the delivery of the 16 K model Fulcrums in May, 2008. If India is pleased it might go a long with toward the 126 tender aircraft bid.

Russia's MiG signs $1bln deal to upgrade 70 Indian fighters
11/03/2008 13:43 MOSCOW, March 11 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's MiG has signed a contract with the Indian Defense Ministry to upgrade around 70 MiG-29 fighters, in service since the 1980s, a spokesman for the aircraft manufacturer said on Tuesday.

He said under the five-year contract the MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters would undergo a full upgrade.

"A contract for the modernization of over 60 MiG fighters in various modifications currently in service with the Indian Air Force was signed in Delhi on March 7," a spokesperson for the aircraft manufacturer told RIA Novosti.

The Times of India earlier reported the upgrade of 69 MiG fighters would be carried out over a three year period extending the service life of the aircraft from 25 to 40 years. In addition the aircraft will be fitted with advanced avionics, including multi-functional Zhuk-ME radars and a new weapon control system, as well as revamped engines.

The newspaper also said the MiG company is to build in the South Asian nation "MiG consignment depots and service centers, along with simulator centers with training aids" worth 30% of the contract.

The Aviation Week said the first six fighters are set to be modernized and flight-tested in Russia with the overhaul and modification of the remainder planned to be carried out by the Indian Air Force's maintenance arm using equipment supplied by the MiG company.

The magazine also said if Russia's MiG-35 wins a tender - estimated at $12 billion - for the delivery of 126 military aircraft to India, Moscow is ready to transfer all key technology to the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. and provide assistance for the serial production of the aircraft in the country.

Link
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080311/101078418.html

 

[SABRE]

There are still countries willing to buy basic MiG-29s for replacement of their old Soviet (& even American) fighter aircrafts. So potential of market is still alive. The problem for Russians is the price & quality at which they are offering the aircrafts. Armenia just returned some of aircrafts back. Other problem is much economical & equally advance aircrafts emerging i.e. JF-17, JAS-39 Gripen, LCA Tejas etc.

Another option for MiG is to develop a 5th generation stealth multirole fighter with VTOL feature - is comparison with JSF-35. But we don't know if Russia can afford another project (along with PAK-FA).

 

[Viktor]

Mig company is also developing Skat UCAV witch might buy Russian forces.

Also remember Mig has sold fighters to Jemen ( 32 Mig-29SMT) , Slovakia and Serbia repared and modernized its Mig-29 and Mig is among competitors for 12 Croatian fighters with its Mig-29M and M2 version.

 

[ROCK45]

Mig's

I didn't know Armenia return Mig's can you tell me what type? I think any 5th generation project depends on funding and Russia's own demand for wanting it.

Yemen's SMT interests me I think 9.18 models but honestly I have never really been able to find anything to read about them. No pilot interviews, nothing from MIG themselves, nothing saying how it's improved over the A models? If you know of anything please let me know.

Slovakia and Serbia - I think Serbia had 4 or 5 Mig-29A repaired and serviced not sure if any upgrades were done. I thought they were deep overhauls to get them back to service? Didn't Slovakia just have 12 modernized to get to NATO standards, nice looking fighters. I would like to read a comparison from pilots before the upgrades and after describing the differences.

I thought I read some place just a few days ago Croatia was looking at JAS-39 Gripen? I don't think the Mig-29M or Mig-29M2 was produced I think they were prototypes, correct me if I'm wrong. I think the Mig-29M2 was a prototype produced basically for the RMAF to go against the Hornet? Nice looking two seater also called MRCA.

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon7.gif
Smile

 

[Viktor]

Well Mig was among the first to respond to Croatian contest for new fighter among others are Gripen, F-16, Mirage-F1, Typhoon.
Anyway despite political circumstances and the thing Croatia is entering NAto Russia has good chanches to sell Migs because of largest offset offer and pilots love it... so who knows - politics will have the last word.

Mig-35 was offered for new MRCA and that differs from Mig-29M and its two seater M2.

 

[ROCK45]

Mig's

You mention in Croatian contest that Mirage F1 were offered? Really? I guess models could be found and maybe serviced and upgraded, it seems odd that a older type would surface for a modern aircraft bid.

I agree with you and think Russia does have a good chance of selling Mig-29 of some type. Aren't there a number of returned Mig-29 SMT from Algeria for sale? I'm sure there fine I always felt that whole situation was related to natural gas issues and not aircraft issues.

I don't think the Mig-35 is a finished product yet and isn't in production. I think the key is India's 126 bid, MIG needs the funding to move on with the the Mig-35. Russia's own AF isn't buying as far I know so for the project to really begin outside customers are needed. I don't think a small order from the Croatian contest would be enough to really to setup a production line.

I hope Russia/MIG gets the contract even if it's a "Slovakia" type deal at least it keeps the workers employed and MIG gets the order.

 

[Feanor]

MiG has two potential 5th gen. projects, the 1.44 and the LFI, however the LFI was cancelled by MiG themselves a long time ago, and the 1.44 has been incorporated (on a very limited scale) into the PAK-FA. As a result MiG has no potential 5th gen. aircraft. Considering the cancellation of the Algerian deal, MiG's only active production contracts are now 5 MiG-29's for Sri Lanka and the MiG-29K deal tied to the Gorshkov carrier sale. The modernization contracts are a temporary fix of a root problem, inability to compete with the Super Flanker in most international contracts (in my opinion). On a realted note does anyone know what the current status of the modernization program for the Russian airforce MiG's is?

Just thought I'd post this picture. It looks interesting in terms of looking at the various designs.

 

[nevidimka]

I'd hope i never get to see the end of Mig company. The company i a legend. It should not close shop, n i hope the Russian gov realises this. They should have made sure that the give certain projects to Mikoyan, instead of giving it all to Sukhoi n put the other company in the danger of closing shop.

Which is why i'm really hoping that Mig did a great job with the Mig29K, n gets the Indian MRCA order. that order will be a big lifeline to the company.

Also on the PAK FA, since there are elements form the Mig 1.42 going into the PAK FA, doesnt this mean Mig also gets payment for the final product as SUkhoi is only the leader, but the project also includes Mikoyan and Yakovlev company efforts?

ALso that was 1 great pic Feanor. But i also have a pic of a Mig LFI which looks like a downscaled Mig1.42 but with 1 engine. That design looks good also.

 

[fltworthy]

Turning out the Lights

The Russians have undergone a post-Cold War defense consolidation similar to that which the United States and Western Europe likewise experienced.

In the United States, Grumman vanished and was merged under Northrop's leadership. McDonnell Douglas became part of Boeing. Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed.

In Russia, the central government has had a central plan, under which ALL of Russia's aviation industry comes under the umbrella of the United Aircraft Corporation (OAK) - with Sukhoi in the lead role of the new organization:
//www.flightglobal.com/articles/2001/04/17/128955/russia-plots-big-industry-merger.html
//www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/08/13/216027/russian-industry-special-growing-a-great-oak.html

With RSK MiG now a junior partner under Sukhoi's leadership, I doubt that there is much of a future left for the MiG name. The MiG-29 is still offered as an export product, but the Russian air force prefers to focus its resources on the larger, longer-range products supplied by Sukhoi.

The other impediment to the future of the MiG product line, is the relative cost, capabilities and quality of their product. I believe that MiG made a strategic error decades ago when they abandoned single-engine fighter aircraft in favor of the more expensive two-engine option. They have doubled the number of engine parts and spares that must be stockpiled to support a fighter fleet - and abandoned the "simple, cheap, reliable" mantra of the MiG-21 and its predecessors.

My own prediction is that MiG will find itself competing for its last remaining MiG-29/-35 sales opportunities, against its less expensive Chinese competitor - the J-10. The J-10 is what MiG should have been developing during the 1980s - not trying to compete with Sukhoi for the heavy fighter market that the MiG 1.44 represented.

 

[eliaslar]

Maybe MiG will eventually turn into a UCAV constructor, not saying that it will not continue producing manned aircrafts.

There is a video of MiG's Skat UCAV, but i don't know if it has done any tests or it is just a 1:1 scale model. On the other side i didn't find anything about the Sukhoi UCAV, except that it still is a concept.

I don't think that MiG will close down

 

[Feanor]

The MiG-29 is still technically a light fighter, where as the Su-27 and Su-30MK are heavy fighters.

 

[ROCK45]

Mig's

Hi fltworthy

fltworthy
My own prediction is that MiG will find itself competing for its last remaining MiG-29/-35 sales opportunities, against its less expensive Chinese competitor - the J-10. The J-10 is what MiG should have been developing during the 1980s

I totally agree with you MIG missed the market calling or need at that period and lost out big time against the Viper and Mirage 2000. The single engine fighter proved itself for years. People forget and please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Mirage 2000 series sell the second most produced fighter in the mid/light class behind the Viper?

I think the J-10 shows so much hope for China aircraft industry I really like this fighter. I think it's time for China to take the chance and let this fighter really be seen. I think they reach a point where even if some parts or flight profile isn't as good as western fighters, some parts are or will be and should be show off. Can you imagine the impact the J-10 would have the worlds aircraft industry if they flew just a flew flights at the up and coming air show in Chile this year? Even if it was a few simple look at me flights and mix in a few snap turns, China would be the talk of the show.

Back to Mig's
It almost seems like the cards were stacked against MIG since the late 80s.

 

[Skywatcher]

What happened to the sole MFI 1.44 prototype?

Hope it ended up in a museum at least.

 

[aaaditya]

I'd hope i never get to see the end of Mig company. The company i a legend. It should not close shop, n i hope the Russian gov realises this. They should have made sure that the give certain projects to Mikoyan, instead of giving it all to Sukhoi n put the other company in the danger of closing shop.

Which is why i'm really hoping that Mig did a great job with the Mig29K, n gets the Indian MRCA order. that order will be a big lifeline to the company.

Also on the PAK FA, since there are elements form the Mig 1.42 going into the PAK FA, doesnt this mean Mig also gets payment for the final product as SUkhoi is only the leader, but the project also includes Mikoyan and Yakovlev company efforts?

ALso that was 1 great pic Feanor. But i also have a pic of a Mig LFI which looks like a downscaled Mig1.42 but with 1 engine. That design looks good also.

mig may get a further order for 36 mig29k,if india excercises that option ,iam against mig winning the mrca order ,because of their poor maintainence and serviceability record a problem further compounded by poor russian after sales support,if these problems are resolved then yes the mig 35 will be an excellent aircraft, it is not inferior to the other competitors,just poor russian after sales support is dimming its prospects.

 

[Feanor]

The MiG-35 features a number of new features that make it stand out. It's thrust vectoring, finally an AESA radar, smokeless engines, reduced RCS, new OLS..... the list goes on. It also has commonality with the already operational MiG-29's in the Indian airforce, and with the MiG-29K that India is purchasing with the Gorshkov and plans to use on it's indigenous carriers. On the other hand Many of the other aircraft have far more impressive combat history. It's not as easy of a contest, and iirc the Hornet also has many of the features that are new to the MiG-35.

 

[ROCK45]

Mig-35

No information has been release that Russian has a operational ASEA radar for a Mig-35 which in itself is still a prototype. It's a good list you mention but I don't think without a large order the funding is there for a lot of what you listed to be produced for a Mig-35. I think India would have jumped on this five years ago if Russia could really deliver these items. I realized that thrust vectoring and a few other items have been out for a while but it doesn't mean RSG MIG is in a position to put in all together in one aircraft and then produce it in numbers. Add in be able to produce spare parts and maintain aircraft in the field for any such order to be filled. Customers want A to Z coverage and support and Russia just doesn't seem to provide MIG with the means for what ever reason or maybe MIG is at fault for bad management. It seems the lack of R&D, current and future support on large scale sales, and the fact that Russia's own AF has no intension's of using the Mig-29, makes it looks grim. There are ways of turning this around for sure but customers need to see it. What are there like 12 or more Mig-29 users out there? Sometimes you have to spend money to make money. There seems to be a little market there to hold onto and get, I think so at least.

 

[nevidimka]

Also i think the unjust reputation it suffered in Iraq n Kosovo affected its sales worldwide. Which is also why more buyers are tilted towards the flankers.

 

[ROCK45]

Rep

The rep isn't just from Iraq and Kosovo the Mig-29 has had performance
problems for years and has suffered. Germany gave there's to Poland even know it basically left them with F-4s, someone else mention another country where half them were grounded. Peru didn't buy there's directly from Russia but they had problems. Look at all the Fulcrum users and you'll see a good portion aren't flying. Go back in time to when Russia first delivered the Mig-29s to India and nightmares stories could be told.. All aircraft have problems on some levels but with support they usually work out, even the American teen series has seen it share as well. India and China had a little growing pains with there Flankers as well but not on the same level as Fulcrums. I always felt that these growing pains (nice way of saying it) were the reason India went with non Russian sub systems and equipment on there Flankers, somebody correct me if I'm wrong. Don't get me wrong Flankers are great aircraft but China and India really help the overall production of the aircraft it was there big sales that jump start the program. Kind of like when Iran bought so many F-14s it pump money into the program. Didn't Iran pre-order F-16s to but the order was canceled? Both China and India didn't have tons of other options at the time and for Russia it was there best option. It turn out well with a lot of work, time, money, outside equipment, etc, MIG never had this is my point.